2022 Amateur Draft Recap and Mock Draft - Part 1 - Philosophical Arguments

 OK, the weather across much of the country really stinks right now.   It's winter.  Duh!

Still, let's go back to July when the sun was bright and the temperatures were warm.   Let's go back to the Guardians' 2022 amateur draft.  

First, let's talk about draft strategy.  My impression is that the Guardians, in all prospect acquistions, employ a pretty tight policy.   That is, the idea of acquiring the best available prospect in the draft does not appear to be the goal.  

• In 2021 no one can convince me that the best available draft prospect was a pitcher 19 out of our 21 selections.
• In 2022 it looks like we were more interested in drafting Kwan/Brennan clones and more college pitchability pitchers than we were in drafting the best available prospect at each of our draft slots.

Adding to this that our international signees tend to go high end with position players only and not pitchers as we choose to get our pitchers from college and through the draft.  

So it appears they have a plan and stuck to it.  

The problem with having a plan, to paraphrase Mike Tyson, is it's all great until some guy hits you with a straight right to your dental work.  

The draft is so fluid it would be difficult to convince me that your plan is so adaptable that it can handle these unexpected twists and turns.  In fact, here is my guess at what the likelihood is of a team with a strict plan actually hitting that plan.  In parentheses next to it is the chances of a team taking the best available player hitting that mark.

Ruund 1: 90% (80%)

Round 2: 75% (85%)

Round 3:50% (80%)

Round 4:40% (70%)

Round 5:30% (50%)

Round 6: 40% (40%)

Round 7: 50% (30%)

Round 8: 50% (30%)

Round 9: 30% (30%)

Round 10: 20% (30%)

Rounds 11-20: 50% (30%)

Based on some old research I did here is how this translates into the ABILITY  of the team with the strict plan to draft the best prospect available at that slot:  This analysis DOES NOT count guys who are rated highly by have draft demands that are unreasonable.  Thus, we are only looking at the best prospect available who, in theory, would have been drafted near the spot and was still available.

Round 1 - Prospect drafted is worse by 4-7 spots than the best available player

Ruund 2 - Prospect drafted is worse by 10 spots than the best available player 

Round 3:  20 spots lower

Round 4:  30 spots lower

Round 5:  75 spots lower

Round 6:  75 spots lower

Round 7: 30 spots lower

Round 8:  similar talent level to the best prospect available

Round 9:  similar

Round 10: similar

Rounds 11-20: similar 

The upshot of these numbers is that a team that is drafting with a strict plan might not be able to get the best players (read: Star potential) early.  However, if this plan is not what other teams are using, as you get later in the draft you are more likely to get a player your development system can turn into a major leaguer of some ilk.  So you Ser buy more likely to get a player later in the draft that has a chance to play in your system..  Sometimes you get a Mason Hickman.   Sometimes you get a Steven Kwan.  Sometimes you get a Ka'ai Tom.  But at least, in the later rounds, you get a better chance (see 2021 draft).

However, what you seldom get if you draft to a plan is a Francisco Lindor. 

Next we will talk about the rubber meeting the road stuff.  Who the Guardians drafted with their plan and who I would have drafted looking mostly at the best available player with a little need thrown in.