Batting Order

 OK, about once a month I want to talk a little more about the batting order.  Now, in Terry Francona's world the battng order appears to be a very touchy-feely thing where the whole appears to be greater than the sum of the parts.  

However, what I am going to suggest leaves out that touchy feely thing and, as such, will likely to be off the beaten path from what Francona and the Guardians will follow.  

But here goes:

Kwan LF

Gimenez 2B

Ramirez 3B

Gonzalez RF

Bell DH

Zunino C

Naylor 1B

Straw CF

Rosario SS

Why, you ask, would I make these changes to the lineup that Francona will likely use:

Kwan

Rosario

Ramirez

Naylor

Bell

Gimenez

Gonzalez

Zunino 

Straw

One 4-letter acronym: GIDP.  For a team that is going to manufacture runs and not have a lot of power, giving up two outs in an AB just won't work.  

Roasrio and Bell grounded into an unacceptable, on this team, number of double plays last year.  Bell had 22 and Rosario 19.  Naylor had 13 and no one else who is coming back had double figures.  So my plan is to 'insulate' guys who hit into DPs by putting guys before them who have low OBP but have some other important abilities like power and speed.   If there is no one on 1B when a DP-prone guy comes up to bat, you are not likely to give up 2 outs n that one AB.

So, if you put stats behind my lineup here is most of my rationale (Player, OBP, GIDP)

Kwan .373 OBP, 9 GIDP

Gimenez .371, 9

Ramirez .355, 5

Gonzalez .327, 6

Bell .362, 22

Zunino .301, 7 (2021 stats)

Naylor .319, 13

Straw .291, 4

Rosario .312. 19

You start out with 3 good OBP guys and go to a 4th guy who doesn't walk much or GIDP often.   Thus, when Bell comes up he likely wouldn't kill a rally with a DP because the damage would have been done before he got there.  There is a chance if he hits 4th that he could come up with first and third and one out and kill that rally.   Gonzalez doesn't ground into many DPs and, rather, strikes out so, for example, if Gonzalez comes up with runners on first and third with one out, he likely would not kill that rally as he will likely not make 2 outs in his AB.  Bottom line, worst case is that Gonzalez leaves the bases as he found them.  So if Bell then comes up with first and third with two outs he can only give up one out in the worst-case scenario in that AB.  No extra outs from him grounding into a DP.  

Same way down the lineup.  Bell is a good OBP guy and Zunino doesn't ground into many DPs.  Naylor does ground into a few but he would come up after Zunino who likely would not be on 1B (low OBP guy). Straw is a low OBP guy so Rosario would likely come up with no one on first and that would give him a chance to more easily beat out an infield hit and set himself up on base for Kwan and Gimenez who don't ground into many DPs.  If Straw ups his OBP he just could try to steal more often to stay out of a Rosario DP grounder.  

Now, you could also do this with the following lineup:

Rosario

Kwan

Ramirez

Gonzalez

Bell

Gimenez

Zunino

Naylor 

Straw

This would be IF Francona is willing to move Kwan to the #2 hole which is where I think he fits best.  Problem is that Rosario is not a good fit at leadoff hitter.  Rosario isn't really a good fit at #2 either as he gets into funks where he chases pitches out of the zone and the aforementioned penchant for GIDP.  Gimenez works well at #6 as he doesn't ground into many DPs and is hitting behind the high OBP Bell and Zunino, who doesn't ground into DPs is behind him, as a buffer between Gimenez and the GIDP guy Naylor.   Again, just like before Straw with his low OBP hits before Rosario, somewhat negating Rosario's GIDP leaning.

Of course, with Bell, maybe he doesn't hit into as many DPs next year due to the anti-shifting rules.  He certainly didn't hit into many earlier in his career.  as he averaged less than 13 between 2017-2019 with a low of 11 in 2019 when he had 118 RBIs.  Still, batting him 5th gives Gonalez some protection which I think would be good for the kid and, if Gonzalez doesn't work out maybe you slide Naylor and his low OBP in the #4 hole and have Bell hit 5th and Gimenez hit 6th followed by Zunino, maybe Brennan and then Straw.   Brennan gives you some good OBP skills near the bottom of the order and, hitting before Straw, wouldn't likely be part of a DP.

Lots of possibilities but the lineup that I think Francona will go with appears to be the worst possible lineup for rally-killing DPs.   When you don't hit a lot of HRs, DPs really will kill you if you are not stealing bases and the lineup I think Francona will use is the worst I can imagne in terms of rally-killing DPs.

Just a thought.