We have lots of good prospects. In fact, I think it is safe to say that no team in baseball has the prospect depth that we have when you consider prospects who are close to or ready for the majors. That being said, our high-end prospect depth as measured by how many prospects we have in the top 30 in baseball (one per team), is not above average.
Each of our prospects has things they need to accomplish in 2023 that will take them over that hump. This listing will not include Freeman or Palacios who have all exceeded rookie limits.
So let's dive in:
1. Daniel Espino - The key here is health. Look, this kid has a Gerrit Cole upside if he is healthy and his floor under the same conditions is as an 8th inning setup man who could grow into a closer of the Emmanuel Clase ilk (actually, due to not being that tall, what he was projected to be when drafted). But he has to stay healthy. His lost 2022 season was a mystery with no real explanation of what happened to him or any real, substantive updates of what happened to him during the season. We started hearing it was a knee problem, then a shoulder problem. But, if you believe the rumors, the Guardans were dogged in not including him in trades this winter. He just needs to stay healthy and build up his arm and command.
2. George Valera - The issue with some of these guys, Valera being the first on this list, is that they are so young for their level and the level they started at last year. When a guy gets promoted and doesn't light up the next level there are always lingering question marks about whether he has hit the ceiling based on his abilities. Not that Valera is in the same category, but there have been a lot of guys who hit the heck out of AAA pitching but couldn't translate that to the majors. Corey Dickerson is the guy I see as the floor for Valera and while the guy has hung around the majors for 10 years and has a career .805 OPS, he just is a rotational player, not a starter and certainly not an all-star. For Valera to avoid that floor he is going to have to conquer AAA this year and it looks like power and OBP are going to have to be his calling cards as he doesn't look like he is going to hit for more than .260 in the majors. So, for this year, he needs to lower is K%, keep his BB% high and get his power numbers up to 30+ at AAA (based on a full year's worth of games, that is). His defense needs to continue to improve, as well, as he would have to be a plus defender with a good arm to stay in RF in the majors. If his K rate goes up and his BB rate takes a hit and he sticks at around 20 HR for a full season he will start to migrate to a Corey Dickerson-type prospect.
3. Brayan Rocchio - Smooth swing, smooth defnses, defensive versatility (SS/2B). The key for him will be his hitting. His upside is Andres Gimenez's 2022 season. However, he did not exactly conquer AAA or his winter league this year. He doesn't appear to be a proficient basestealer and his OBP % and walk rate could use improvement. He has to maintain his power and increase his walk rate. A full year at AAA where he gets to 60 BB, 25 2B, 20 HR, 10 steals with a .270 average while playing top notch defense is what he needs to work for at AAA. This, hopefully, will set him up for those 2022 Andres Gimenez-type numbers either this year or next year.
4. Gavin Williams - Literally, he just needs to repeat his peformance from 2022, this team STARTING at Akron and ending at Columbus. This, of course, means staying healty and improving his command and his craft. He is in the grind and he just needs to stay healthy and perform
5. Bo Naylor - Again, just improve his craft. I think he has set himself up for the typical prospect pattern: handle a level for 1/2 a year, struggle a little after a promotion, rinse and repeat the next year. He will be in his second year at AAA and should put up good offensive numbers. He needs to keep his walk rate high, improve on his power and continue to realize that hitting for average is important, too. Still, it is his defense that will carry him. If he does well he should be in the majors by the all-star break and should get a lot of his ML learning done in the second half this year.
6. Tanner Bibee - He came out of nowhere last year and so he needs to maintain that consistency in 2023. He just needs to stay healthy and work on his craft although it looks like he is clearly about 18 months away from helping this team. He is in the grind and needs to improve all aspects, while staying healthy.
7. Logan Allen - Here is a guy who got chewed up at AAA last year. But it was a long season and he has moved fast through the system. He isn't a big power guy like Williams and so these bumps in the road on promotion to the next level will be expected. He just needs to continue to find ways to get guys out while he improves his stuff. A good comp for him is where Beiber is now. If Allen can make it to the 2022 level of Beiber (which I think is very reasonable) he will have maxed out his ability. It will likely take him all of 2023 to shore up his game and his craft to have a chance in 2024 to be 'that' rookie.
8. Gabriel Arias - In 2023 he has to decide who he is. He just has to hit more, plain and simple. He reminds me of the 2021 version of Andres Gimenez. I am not saying to scrap his current hitting approach but he needs to get more walks, hit for more power, and make better contact. Look at Amed Rosario's stats last year. I think those are highly achiveable for Arias but he needs to make improvements to get there. This is a make-or-break year for hm in terms of starting to play like an all-star. His whole game, across the board, needs to get immediately better. Given his young age, if this happens he can still be an offensive star, defensive asset in the middle of the diamond or at an outfield corner for the Guardians.
9. Xzavion Curry - A big part of Curry's development will be if they move him to the bullpen. As a starter he is undersized but without Espino's fastball. I don't know if he can hold up, let alone dominate in the majors, with his size and stuff. But, in the bullpen, you are looking at top of the league 8th inning guy and, I think, right now. So his development will depend on his team using hm appropriately. If they continue with him as a starter he might disappoint this year. We will see.
10. Jake Fox - He, like Milan Tolentino, just need to play. What they will eventually end up being is too out of focus right now as it will only be determined when both get to AA and AAA. Lots of potential but let's remember that Owen Miller was this level of prospect in our system. So, there's that.
11. Jhonkensy Noel - If there is one guy in the system that has to take to what the Guardians are asking him to do, it is Noel. As a firstbaseman with Bell on a one-year opt out, Noel can put himself in position to be in the majors in 2024 with a good season. But I can see this going two ways. If he is receptive and puts the Guardians' teachings into play he becomes Spongebob. If he goes his own way, he becomes Franmil part deux. He is teed up to start the year at AAA and that challenge, along with how he has to improve his game, will go a long way to determine his eventual worth. If he does his job well and stays healthy, he could be our team ROY in 2024...and a much needed piece. As I said last year, I see a little Albert Pujols in him and I hope he can develop into anywhere near what Albert became.
There are a lot more guys I will touch on in the next few weeks, hopefully. But I wanted to start with these guys today.
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