You can probably put players in our farm system into 5 classes:
Organizational Players - Look, 250+ minor leaguers will likely play for Guardians' farm teams in the upcoming season. Many of those do not truly have a chance to be major leaguers. They are simply there to fill out a roster. These types of players are known as organizational players. Sometimes one or two of these guys make huge advances in ability and their chance of making it to the majors imcreases significantly which is what the player and the organization are shooting for. But, for the most part, they are there to fill out rosters.
Suspects - These types of guys have been brought into the system because they have tools that, with the right development by the player under the guidance of the coaching staff, could put that person in a position to make it to the major leagues. However, somewhere along the way their development has been stalled, either by injuries or by disappointing performance or both. These players are on their way to becoming organizational players unless they have an epiphany season where all that coaching and those tools fall into place.
Low-Level Prospects - These are guys who were acquired because they had one real tool to work with. Pitchers obtained to be developed as relievers, catchers obtained because of their defense or their throwing arm, infielders obtained because they can play great defense and outfielders whose primary tool is speed/defense or power.
Medium-Level Prospects - These are guys who were either higher round draft picks or international signings or guys obtained through trades who have a decent chance to make it to the majors. They are likely not going to be stars although that could change over time if their tools develop.
High-Level Prospects - These are guys who were 1st-3rd round draft picks, international signings for over $500,000 or prospects obtained by trading a first-line major leaguer with 1+ years of service time left before free agency. These guys project anywhere from being starters in the majors to being core players for a major league team.
WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT IN THIS POST
This post is about guys who are not on the 40-man roster and who are or were significant prospects whose success or failure in 2023 would have a significant impact on the strength of our farm system, our ability to restock the major league team or who could be used to make a significant prospect-for-major leaguer trade. I have highlighted 10 players, with "10" being least impactful to the health of our farm system in this list if they fail and "1" being most impactful. These prospects are ones who may be in danger of crossing the line to a lower status if they struggle this year or, if they put it all together, may keep their current status or even move up, the latter making them more valuable to the organization as indicated above.
THE LIST
Below is the list of 10 players I think are in crucial seasons. Players who didn't make this list but were close include Josh Wolf, Lenny Torres, Joe Naranjo, Luis Durango, Jose Pestrano and Junior Sanquintin. By falling just outside of this list the players above would have a very positive impact on the strength of our farm system if they dramatically over-achieved this year but likely would not have as negative an impact if the under-achieved.
For the 10 players listed below, their performance this year, whether they succeed or fail, will likely have a bigger impact. Here's the list.
10. Gabriel Rodriguez - Rodriguez was eligible for the Rule 5 last year and I could swear the Guardians were just 'hiding' him at Lake County to give him an extra year of development. He rarely played two days in a row in 2022 and, when he did play, he batted near the bottom of the order. Turns out he was suffering from an injury that required surgery in the off-season. As we enter 2023, Rodriguez is still just barely 21 years old. If he has a healthy and productive season at Akron this year he could valult into competition for a 40-man roster position. Otherwise he is Rule 5-eligible for the 2nd year in a row and would stand a decent chance of getting taken. He started as a high-level prospect in the first couple of years after he was signed and dropped to a medium-level prospect and now sits as a low-level prospect as he is rarely mentioned, at this point, on Guardians' prospect lists. Like guys on this list and the honorable mentions above, he is set up to be able to have a career year and make a dramatic push up the prospect lists or continue at the trajectory he is currently on and be on the suspect list. Rodriguez, as an infielder with some pop, is intriguing and I hope he puts it all together this year.
9. Alexfri Planez - Planez has always played in the shadow of prospects like Noel and Tena but he shows good tools and all he needs is a spark to push him up to the level of Noel or higher on Guardians' prospect lists this coming winter. Like others on this list and in the honorable mention category above, if Planez does not get rostered this year he will become a 6-year minor league free agent this coming winter so this is a big season for Alexfri and the Guardians as both have spent a lot of time getting him to this point. Given that he signed when he was 6 he will play most of 2023 as a 21 year old, again younger than the average for the leagues he is playing in. He has shown a lot of power potential but like so many younger hitters, is adverse to taking a walk. If he can show more plate discipline he could become a viable prospect. Right now he is in the low-level prospect category and doesn't appear on many Guardians' prospect lists. A good season could vault him up to the middle level and make the Guardians either trade him or force their hand to add him to the 40-man this winter. Otherwise, he would likely sign with someone else this winter as there are lots of outfielders currently ahead of him on the depth chart of outfield prospects and young major leaguers.
8. Jonathon Rodriguez - When he was drafted in 2017 in the 3rd round by the Guardians he was one of the youngest players in his draft class so it was pretty obvious that he would take a while to develop as he was constantly younger than the average of every league he played in. He broke out in 2022 with 26 HRs while splitting time between Lake County and Akron. He added a HR this year in spring training. He is currently a low level prospect but, playing this year at Akron and, hopefully, Columbus, could vault into the medium-level or, with an unbelievable season, into the high-level category with the latter potentially leading to an end-of-season promotion to Cleveland if the Guardians are out of the race or if the need arises for another bat in September. If he doesn't perform the Guardians would have to re-sign him as a 6-year minor league free agent and, if they do, maybe he could follow the same path as Oscar Gonzalez.
7. Micah Pries - Like Jonathon Rodriguez, Pries doesn't appear on any Guardians' prospect lists. He is an older college player who has been slightly older than the average of every professional league he appeared in. That being said, his best year was last year when, as a 24 year old, he was age appropriate for the Eastern League that he faced while at Akron. He has followed that up with a strong spring this year. Again, like Rodriguez, if everything continues to click for Pries and he can repeat or even improve on 2022 while playing at the top minor league level, he could vault from an organizational player up to a medium-level prospect. If not then he remains as an organizational player in the mold of Trenton Brooks. If he does improve he could become a viable option if Bell opts out after this year or be used as a trade chip to bring in a veteran.
6. Isaiah Greene - Obtained in the Francisco Lindor trade, Greene will turn 22 during the season. His highest level so far is low A, where he led Cleveland minor leaguers with 97 walks and 39 stolen bases at Low A last season. I saw him hit in the cages this spring and he did pound the ball and looked like he had put on some muscle. He is currently considered a low level prospect for the Guardians as he is only ranked 41st in our system by FanGraphs, 37th by me and is not even listed in our top 30 prospects on MLB pipeline. A lot of that is likely due to his low BA last year (,224) and his lack of punch (.340 SLG). However, considering his increased strength, his speed and his walk rate he could be in line for a big uptick in his prospect status this year, starting at Lake County if he can just hit for more power and make better hard contact, things he is primed to do. Without that this low-level prospect may slip into the suspect category by the end of the year if he is mediocre at Lake County this year, especially in a farm system overloaded with left-handed hitter outfielders with speed but without power.
5. Tanner Burns - Burns was never a hard thrower but the thought was once he got into the Guardians' Finishing School for Young Pitchers, his velocity would bloom and his other stuff with his decent control would be augmented by that increased velocity as has been seen by other pitchers who came through our system. Well, in 2022 Burns had his worst year. He walked 45 in 88 innings ang gave up 14 HRs. Although he had a 3.55 ERA his WHIP was 1.35 giving him an unsustainable strand rate. Burns SHOULD be a stud pitcher like Williams at this point and, having been in the Finishing School for a couple of years now, should look better than he did last year. He simply looked in 2022 like he didn't have enough weapons to compete at the higher levels of the minors, let alone in the majors. This could just be his development stalling a little bit only to re-accelerate this year. But he clearly is one of those guys who is at risk for moving from medium-level prospect all the way down to suspect if he doesn't have a bounce back year in 2023. On the other hand, if he does revert to the good projections that he had when he was drafted, given the Guardians' ability to develop pitchers, he could become an excellent trade chip this summer or winter.
4. Jake Fox - Jake was highlighted as a sleeper prospect in the recent article by Jonathon Mayo. I see Fox as a mid-level prospect right now, sort of an Owen Miller-type prospect (not Miller in the majors, Miller when he was coming up in the minors). Fox will play the entire season as a 20 year old after playing last season on a full-season team as a 19 year old, young for that level. It is not out of the question that the Guardians ask him to repeat low A so that he starts an ascent up the minors as a more age-appropriate prospect for the level. They did the same thing with both Joe Naranjo (Lake County) and Bo Naylor (Akron) last year when they were not successful their first time around when being young for a level. Both Naranjo and Naylor did better their second time around and both improved their prospect status. So, where Fox starts this year and how he does at that level will help determine if Fox stays as a mid-level prospect or goes up or down.
3. Juan Brito - My poster child for a bad trade return, Brito was praised for his batting eye with more walks than Ks at Low A last year. However, Low A is a place where many pitchers are still working to develop control and very few have come close to mastering command. If you are competent enough to not chase pitches you are going to draw a lot of walks. Unfortunately, when they come nto the zone you have to be able to hit the ball and to be an offensive second baseman you have to be able to drive the ball. This spring in the major league games we saw Brito's extreme battng eye, leading the majors in spring training with 10 walks at the time he was sent down. However, when he hit the ball, he either made weak contact or got hits by slapping at the ball. That won't even play at higher levels of the minors, let alone in the majors. It also portends a long development path to let him grow into whatever power he may develop and we don't have that as in 3 years he will be out of minor league options and, by that point, has to be a viable major league option. Clearly in 2023 we need Brito to follow Jhonkensy Noel's path last year where he started at Lake County and had enough success that he ended the season in Columbus, where he likely will start in 2023. If Brito spends the entire year at Lake County, this guy who is rated as a medium prospect (FanGraphs) or a low level prospect (MLB pipeline and most Guardians' websites) could quickly become a suspect which would not be a good situation as we gave up one of our top prospets, at the time, for Brito. It would also put a strain on our 40-man roster as you can't really have the strong farm system we have and afford to carry ANY suspects on your roster and, by so doing, expose a better prospect to the Rule 5.
2. Ethan Hankins - Hankins is actually getting older, turning 23 in a couple of months. Considering that he was drafted in 2018 and due to injuries and the pandemic year has only thrown 64 innings in the minors on 5 seasons. He was eligible for the Rule 5 draft last winter and will be eligible this winter and will become a 6 year minor league free agent after the 2024 season. Thus he has 2 years to vault 3 levels, having to either be rostered after the 2023 or 2024 seasons or risk being lost to the Guardians. For a guy who only has 21 innings at low A as his highlest level, that is quite an order. Plus, he is also going to be limited in innings pitched as he has never had a full workload in the minors. A reasonable estimate is that he would be limited to 75-80 innings this year. All these things combine to put Hankins' career at a crossroad. On one hand he has the potential to be an uber prospect with good stuff coming out of HS and throwing over 98 mph this spring. On the othr hand the Guardians are running out of time with him. He can be a big part of our future if he makes progress this year, moving from a medium-level prospect to a high-level prospect. However, if his career stalls again this year he could easily move into the suspect category.
1. Logan Allen - Allen is the darling of prospect geeks and beloved of FanGraphs who rates him higher (#4 in the Guardians' system) than any other service [NOTE: Remember that last year FanGraphs had Kwan rated as the #3 prospect in our system so they have a lot of street cred with me]. He is also listed on a couple of sites as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. So Logan T. Allen is a significant prospect. In his first 1 1/2 years in the minors he simply domnated. However, when he got to AAA in the last half of 2022 he struggled. His velocity was down a couple miles an hour and he became very hittable. He did finish the season stronger in his last couple of starts but the queston marks were still there heading into 2023. He got to pitch in spring training and at least in the game I saw he was throwing 94, so that is promising. Still, he looked a lot like the second half pitcher of 2022 as he got hit around quite a bit in the 3 ML exhibition games he pitched in. So, is Logan T. Allen the dominant pitcher we saw in his first 1 1/2 seasons in the minors or is he the sub-par major league pitcher (similar to his former Guardians' namesake) that we have seen since? Given his high prospect status, the uncertain answer to that question makes Logan Allen the most important prospect on this list and his success or failure this year, more important than any prospect not currently on our 40 man roster.
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