Look, in my opinion the Guardians are screwing this up. Arias sucked this year yet he got all the playing time. Freeman had his moments when he got a chance but he hardly got a chance and he is more of a second baseman. Rocchio is clearly the SS of the future, IMO, as Arias is only good if he could hit .250/.320/.410. He hasn't shown anywhere close to that but that tantalizing power, strong arm and adequate hands make him the flame and us fans the moths. Tena and Martinez are still a ways away but neither shows any flash that would make me think they are going to overtake these three.
So I wanted to look at two past SS in Cleveland and compare with the two main candidates for our SS spot in 2024. The comparisons I am going to make are Rocchio-Vizquel and Arias-Peralta. These will not be perfect comparisons but, to me, these are the best matches I can think of. Please, no Frank Duffy comments from the audience!
Omar Vizquel vs Brayan Rocchio
Vizquel played his first minor league season at 17 and frst appeared in the majors when he was 22, sticking in the majors for good when he was 24. In his minor league career he did not hit many HRs, did steal some bases and walked about as much as he struck out. When he got to the majors that profile persisted but he became a better hitter as career went on, but still only had 2 years where his OPS+ was over 100. Vizquel's calling card was HOF defense, however.
Rocchio also made his ML debut at 22. He only had a few ABs. His BB/K rate in AAA was similar to Vizquel's in his first AAA year before he made his ML debut. He did not show as much base stealing prowess as Vizquel but he got to double figures in two mnor league seasons, something Vizquel never did (only once in the majors). It is difficult to tell how much above average Rocchio will be at SS in the majors but he looks like he definitely will be above average defensively.
Both Rocchio and Vizquel are switch hitters.
So, while the defense of Vizquel stands out, I see them as being similar overall, with Rocchio being a better hitter with more power earlier in his career but Vizquel being the better defender. I like this comparison as a reasonable career trajectory for Rocchio
Johnny Peralta vs Gabriel Arias
Peralta debuted at the age of 21 and his first year OPS was .621 in 270 PA. Up to that point he showed some power in the minors, getting to double figures twice. He went back to the minors the following year and played almost the whole year there. He established himself as a major league starting SS at age 23 with an .885 OPS and 24 HRs. From then on he be counted on for double digit HRs but not many SBs (only 17 in his career compard to .202 HRs). He was never known as a stalwart defender but did a pretty good job at SS so, along with his hitting, he was a fixture at SS and a 3-time all-star.
Peralta hit right handed pitching slightly better in his career but had a higher OPS vs LH pitching.
We don't have much data on Arias, also a RH hitting SS with some power. After a successful minor league career where he got to double figures in HRs 3 times, Arias made his ML debut at age 22 and played part time at age 23, mirroring Peralta's age 21 season in production. Arias hit 10 HRs in his real ML debut (not counting the cameo in 2022). His arm is very strong and accurate and he has good hands on defense.
Just like Vizquel/Rocchio, we don't have enough data on Peralta/Arias yet. However, if Arias brings his BA against LH pitching up to .250 he will likely have a similar offensive profile to Peralta. That is a big if but he at least has a chance to be close to Peralta offensively
Summary
So, there you have it. Two wildly extreme comparisons based on less than sufficient data. Still, it's fun to dream on what these guys can be and represents a warning to the Guardians: If you give up on either of these guys before you know what you have, you are likely to get burned as you did with Nolan Jones, Will Benson, Yainer Diaz and Junior Caminero.
The Guardians have really screwed this up. Neither of these guys is worth a lot right now in trade but they are certainly worth having patience with AND keeping them in this organization. My money is on Rocchio as Arias looked lost almost beyond recovery this year. Still, no way is Arias that bad against LH pitching nor is Rocchio that non-selective as the hitter we saw from him in 2023.
Please take the above with a large boulder of salt...but it does give you something to dream on, doesn't it?
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