Thoughts For A Wednesday: Be Grateful for 2022, Tankathon, Desert Mirage, 4th Option/6 yr FA Light at the End of the Tunnel, Potpourri

 Be Grateful for 2022

Guardians fans, besides the 92-70 record, we also played a couple of rounds in the playoffs in 2022, winning 4 games while losing 3.  So far in the 2023 playoff season, Tampa Bay (2nd year in a row), Toronto, Milwaukee, Miami and Baltimore have been swept in their first series of the postseason.  Made it to the playoffs but none of these teams won a game.  The Dodgers are on the brink of elimination, having to win three games in a row, 2 of those in Arizona.  Only Houston (up 2-1) and Atlanta (tied 1-1) are in any position to win their division series as the favorites in those series.

I know Cleveland has been swept in post-season series in the past (dating all the way back to the disappointing WS of 1954) but last year was satisfying in that we were at least in the series we played in.  I would have much rather had that than playing hard all season only to go down without much of a fight in the playoffs.  Just feels better and i am grateful we had that last year.

Tankathon

The is a website for almost everything.  Tankathon | 2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator website calculates the order that teams will draft in the next draft.   Besides loving the concept of a tank-a-thon, the end of the season dash to secure the best draft pick, it is a place where you can track where your team will draft.   The website is even fitted with a time clock that counts down the time until the draft lottery for 2024 is conducted.  Classic!

Right now, Cleveland is slated to draft 9th but that depends on how the draft lottery in a couple of months plays out.  The scenarios are as follows:

• Cleveland could draft in places 1-6 if they are winners in the lottery.
• Cleveland could move up to #8 if the Mets don't win a lottery spot and all those spots are taken by teams with worse records than Cleveland.  The Mets, #7 right now, would drop to #17 due to exceeding the salary cap threshhold.  
• If the Mets win a lottery spot and one non-playoff team with a better record than Cleveland wins a lottery spot, Cleveland drops to #11 as Washington is fixed at #10.
• Cleveland can drop below #11 by one spot for each additional team that would win a lottery spot.

So, theoretically, given that there are 6 lottery spots than can be won by all the non=playoff teams but Washington, Cleveland can still draft anywhere from #1 to #15.  We won't know until the lottery.

FYI, last year Minnesota was slated to draft #13 but won a lottery spot and picked #5, netting them Walter Jenkins who is currently the #16 prospect in all of baseball.  Compare that to Ralphy Velazquez, our draft pick, who is probably between 125-150 in all of baseball right now.  

So magic could happen but also disaster could happen...and we won't know until the draft lottery.  Let's hope for a LeBron James draft year scenario for Cleveland.  

Desert Mirage

People are getting excited with the positive things Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo are doing in Arizona in the AFL  DeLauter's great first game, Manzardo's 3 HRs and DeLauter's 2, league-leading 15 RBIs and 2 stolen bases, they all look good.

But I want to interject a lot of caution.  DeLauter and Manzardo rank 7th and 8th ON THEIR OWN TEAM in OPS.  They are hitting .276 and .200, respectively.  Compared to others on their team they are among the poorest offensive performers on that team.   Pitching is pretty thin in that league.  The best pitcher Cleveland sent to the AFL is Ryan Webb who might not even be a top 30 prospect for the Guardians.  After him we have Bradley Hanner (a minor league Rule 5 pick last year), Erik Sabrowski,( a 26 year old career minor leaguer), Ross Carver (the disappointing return in the Carlos Vargas trade to Arizona last year).  None of these last 3 are any more right now than organizational filler. They are just there to get extra innings in and fulfill the Guardians' requirement to fill out their AFL roster responsibilities. THAT is representative of what a lot of the pitching looks like in the AFL.  Thus hitters in the AFL SHOULD perform well. Using that as a yardstick it makes the offensive performance of DeLauter and Manzardo look even more pathetic.

Not all, or even anything, is lost at this point.  It is early in the AFL season as we still have more than 2/3 of that season to play.  However, all is not good in the desert for Cleveland at this point and it is highly possible that the whole AFL season could still be a disaster for Cleveland, at least in terms of statistical performance.

4th Option/6 Yr FA, Light At the End of the Tunnel?

Yesterday MLB Trade Rumors reported that Ivan Herrera, the #3 catcher on the Cardinals catching depth chart, will be granted a 4th option year by MLB.  In MLB, a player placed on the 40-man roster by a team can be optioned to the minors in 3 separate seasons.  If a team wants to option a player a 4th time they must first place through waivers.  The one exception is that a player can be granted a 4th minor league option if they completed the first 3 option years before they have 5 'full' seasons in organized professional baseball.  'Full' is defined 90 days on an active roster and/or IL.  The article goes on to say that Herrera (Iván Herrera Minor, Fall & Winter Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com) played his first two seasons in rookie leagues (DOSL and FCL), neither of which qualified as a full season since neither had seasons that extended past 90 days.  He played a full season in 2019, 2021, 2022 snf, of course, 2024.  The key here, then, is the 2020 season.  Him being granted a 4th option year would imply that MLB is not counting 2020 as a full minor league season.

Up to this point, every indication was that MLB was considering 2020 as a full season and Rule 5 eligibility and 6 year minor league free agency seemed to count it this way.  However, if the Herrera situation is as reported by MLB Trade Rumors, it would seem like there might be a crack in the armor of MLB in terms of how they consider the lost 2020 minor league season.  If, indeed, they don't count it as a minor league season then the following players might be granted an extra option year:

• Johnkensy Noel - Noel will likely use up his 3rd option year in 2024.  After 2024 will have played 4 years of full-season ball (2021-2024) if they don't count 2020 as his 2018 and 2019 seasons we spent in rookie ball.  If they would count 2020, he would not be eligible for the 4th option.
• Juan Brito - He likely won't need a 4th option year but if 2020 doesn't count and he played rookie ball in 2019 and 2021, he really has only used up 2 full seasons in the minors and one option year.  Thus he should have his full compliment of 4 option years if he would need one in 2026, based on what we know about Herrera.  Brito was set to expire his option years after 2025.
• George Valera - Valera has already used up 2 option years and given the lost season 2023 was for him, is almost guaranteed to use up his 3rd option in 2024.  He would have used up 4 complete seasons after 2024, assuming his 2019 doesn't count and 2020 doesn't count.  Thus, if they needed a 4th option for him in 2025, Herrera's case would seem to show it would be available.
• Brayan Rocchio - Rocchio played full seasons in 2021, 2022, 2023. In 2018 and 2019 he played rookie ball, not exceeding 90 days for either year.  He has already used up 2 of his options and if he uses the 3rd one in 2024 he will only have 4 full seasons of professional ball at that point, meaning he would get a 4th option year, if needed, in 2025.  
• Jose Tena - Tena has used up two of his option years (2022 and 2023) but, like the others from the 2017 international class, he will have played only 4 full seasons in the minor leagues (2021-2024) if he uses his 3rd option next year because he played 2018 and 2019 on rookie ball teams.  Thus he should be eligible for an additional option year in 2025, if needed.

For guys in the international class of 2018 or 2019 they likely would not be eligible for this extra option year if 2020 is not counted as a full season.  If you use Angel Martinez as an example he played in 2019 in rookie ball but played in 2021 and 2022 before he was rostered.  2023 counted as his first option year and he is eligible to be optioned to the minors in 2024 and 2025.  At that point he should have 5 full seasons in professional baseball after his 3rd option has been used, meaning his 4th option year wouldn't be available.

So, this seemingly innocuous decision on Ivan Herrera could have huge implications on the player control for some of the Guardians top prospects.  This could impact our ability to hold onto them until they fully mature and could also increase their value in trades since the acquiring team would have an extra year of control.

The other aspect of this decision by MLB that I alluded to above is that this decision calls into question previous decisions where eligibility for Rule 5 and 6 year minor league free agency were impacted by 2020 being counted as a year of control by the organization.    If MLB has softened its stance on the major league options relative to 2020 being considered a full season in the mnors, they might retroactively grant an extra year of control to teams who have players coming up to Rule 5 and 6-yr minor league free agency who were impacted by the lost 2020 minor league season.  Stay tuned.

Potpourri

• The managerial search in Cleveland must be going hot and heavy.  I hope they take their time and do a lot of consideration on who the right guy is for a roster this young.
• I did an analysis on RF options for next year and then, last night, read an article on why Tyler O'Neill would be an interesting option.  He has only played 32 games in RF in his career and has been hurt repeatedly the last 2 years.  I can't envision a trade scenario in which we would get O'Neill and the Cardinals would accept the deal unless we traded Nick Sandlin or Hunter Gaddis for O'Neill.  He really answers NONE of the questions we have for our roster in 2024, all things considered. Hey, I liked him last year in June but now, given how injured he is and doesn't play a position of need, I have very little interest in him unless it is for one of the guys above. Xzavion Curry and above and any prospect in our top 20 is out of the question for O'Neill at this point in his career.  Now, if they want to talk about Jordan Walker...
• I can't believe Mandy Bell named Parker Messick as one of the guys to watch in 2024.   Will Dion, I agree with although his lack of velocity is concerning.  Now, if she mentioned Ryan Webb, we might have a discussion.  Although he had an uneven first AFL performance, he gave up a leadoff triple in the first and struck out the side and struck out 2 guys after walking the leadoff hitter and giving up a 2-run single in the second.  There is something there.  Now, Messick DID increase his velocity after his promotion to Lake County but, as I said at the time, any stats he had at Lynchburg were just a college pitcher beating up on immature hitters in A ball.  If you look at his Lynchburg numbers you will also see that his peripherals don't look that good for a college pitcher in that league.
• Still waiting to get reports on our injured pitching prospects.  Inquiring minds want to know!