Blockbuster Trade Proposal

 For those of you who read this blog or follow me on the medium formerly known as Twitter, you know that I am a Guardians fan by birth and a Cardinals fan by the fact that I lived there for 35+ years.  So thinking of a trade between my two favorite teams that would help both of them is foremost on my mind.  I mean, we already gave them Richie Palacios so that should gve us an edge in them wanting to trade with us, right?

So, let's propose right here, right now, a mega-trade between these two Central Division contenders.   But is there a fit?  Well, the Guardians have veteran pitching in Bieber and Quantrill.  The Cardinals have made it know they are going after veteran pitching this off-season and we know how expensive that market can be. The Cardinals have an outfielder that the Guardians should covet and minor league pitching to backfill and holes this trade would make in the Guardians' rotation.  The Guardians also have an outfielder the Cardinals can  backfill their OF. So....let's go!

The Guardians trade: Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Myles Straw to the Cardinals

The Cardinals trade: Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein and Brycen Mautz to the Guardians.  

Why this works for the Cardinals: 

• They want veteran pitching and, for one year with Bieber and 2 years with Quantrill, they will get two of the types of pitchers they like.   It saves them a lot of money as we know how expensive the FA market can be and with their recent Steven Matz disaster, they likely would prefer to avoid the long-term, expensive route that FA starters would bring.  After this trade they would STILL have to add one top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher but at least they have saved some money for that by trading for veteran starting pitching that is as good and much cheaper than what that quality would cost from free agency
• Look, they are losing 2 ML outfielders in this trade.  This franchise values defense and it was their outfield that really hurt their defensive rankings this year as they were 20th in OF defense with a -7 DRS according to FanGraphs.  Straw solidifies their CF defense while removes the defensively challenged (at least for now) Walker in RF.
• They get to keep their #1 pitching prospect, Tink Hence, while getting two ML starting pitchers and only have to give up 2nd tier starting pitching prospects to do this.

Why this works for the Guardians:

• Looking at the FA market the Guardians are going to have to trade for that powerhitting RFer they want.  I have posted previously about the trade options and there are some that would be good ones..but there are some that I hate, including trading for one year of Santander or two years of the mediocre Austin Hays, not mentioning the other one-year and mediocre guys we could trade for or overpay for as FA.  Jordan Walker is potentially that long term solution in RF and Tyler O'Neill, if healthy, adds pop in LF. 
• We get back two ML-ready starting pitchers in Graceffo and Kloffenstein if we need them to backfill for the loss of Bieber and Quantrill although I would suggest that what we will actually do is, in addition to this trade, sign a FA starting pitcher.  
• Mautz is that longer-term play that keeps this trade value from being fully realized for a couple of years.
• Straw's offense and defense have deteriorated since he was traded to Cleveland.  Simply, we need more offense than a combination of Straw and Brennan/Gonzalez/etc. provide.
• We save money on salaries that we can apply to getting a veteran FA starting pitcher and maybe accepting large salaries back in a trade (Luis Robert?).

There is risk involved in this trade for each team, to be sure.  Here are some of the risks that come to my mind immediately for each team:

Cardinals risk:

• Both Bieber and Quantrill spent significant time on the IL this year
• Bieber is a 1-year rental and Quantrill is controllable for only 2 years.  They just got out of a situation like that with Flaherty and with the acquisition of Montgomery in a trade in 2022.  Do they want to put themselves in a position to have to look for starting pitching again for the 2025 and 2026 seasons?
• Straw's offense and defense have regressed.  Will he find another gear after the trade and become a more formidable offensive threat and a gold glover centerfielder again or will he be Harrison Bader-like when they just traded away Bader?  Remember, Straw is signed for 3 more years and the Cardinals would be stuck with that if they decide they don't like his overall package after seeing him in 2024.

Guardians Risks:

• Walker had an overall WAR of -0.1 in 2023.  His defense was pathetic but it was his first year playing OF full time, having been a 3rdbaseman before. His offensive production was weak but he started the season as a 20-year old and, at the time of his callup, was the #1 prospect in baseball.  Will his inherent athleticism allow him to make the light-year improvements he has to make in defense to be playable there and will he improve his hitting or regress in 2024 based on his 2023 numbers being probably tamped down by his young age?  Or will he go all Oscar Gonzalez on us with his 2023 production appearing like a flash in the pan like Gonzalez's 2022 numbers are looking like?
• O'Neill is hurt all the time.  Will he be able to stay healthy enough to be productive for us on offense for an entire season?  
• If O'Neill plays DH, we have created a hole in center field that we have to fill.  If he plays LF we have to move Kwan over to CF and that way weaken our OF defense (ranked 10th in baseball by FanGraphs in 2023).  The question is can Kwan play CF or, if he stays in LF and O'Neill DHs, can we find an internal option (Brennan, Valera??) who can play CF at an acceptable level?  Or can we use our resources to trade for one (Luis Robert? Jorge Barrosa?)?
• If we can't sign a free agent starting pitcher are the combination of Curry, Gaddis, Graceffo and Kloffenstein good enough to get the necessary number of quality starts to give this team a chance to win AND to weather the storm if we have injuries to McKenzie, Williams, Bibee or Allen?  Part of reducing this risk is if the Guardians think Cantillo will be ready in 2024 and whether Dion can up his game to get ML hitters out routinely without getting bombed or having high pitch counts early?  Will any other starting pitcher (Webb, Burns, Nikhazy, Mace, Messick, etc.) be able to make meteoric rises to help us in the 2nd half of 2024 if we have a rough patch with starting pitching sometime next year?

So, there you have it.  A trade that should scare the crap out of the fans of each team making them scream to the heavens "No FREAKIN' WAY.  WE GOT ROBBED".  In other words, the perfect trade for each team!