Do the Guardians NRI Signings Really Suck As Bad As I Think They Do?

 Looking back over the past 3 years of NRI invitees I am fighting mad.   Here are the players the Guardians brought in as VETERAN non-roster invitees to spring training:

2022 -  Anthony Castro, Yohan Ramirez, Alex Young, Ian Gibault, Jake Jewell, Sandy Leon

2023 - Touki Toussaint, Caleb Barager, Dusten Knight, Caleb Simpson, Roman Quinn, Zack Collins, Daniel Norris (at end of ST)

2024 - Adam Oller, Jamie Barria, Carlos Carrasco, Anthony Banda,Tyler Zuber, Dom Nunez

 This is a pathetic list.  Unless Carrasco ends up having a real comeback season, none of these guys, ZERO, stand even a small chance to make any significant impact on the Guardians.  NONE.

The Guardians have to do better than this.  I mean, just looking back, since Feb. 1st this year the following players, among others, received MiLB deals with non-roster invitations to spring training:

Francisco Mejia C (Feb. 29)

Kolten Wong, 2B (Feb. 28)

Tim Locastro P (Feb 28)

Julio Teheran P (Feb 27)

Jason Alexander P (Feb. 27)

Matt Barnes P (Feb 27)

Naoyuk Usasawa P (Feb 26)

Garrett Cooper 1B (Feb 25)

Cam Gallagher C (Feb 24)

Derek Law P (Feb 22)

Francisco Perez P (Feb 20)

David Peralta OF (Feb. 19)

Chase Anderson P (Feb 17)

Bryan Shaw P (Feb. 16)

Zach Davies P (Feb 15)

Jacob Barnes P (Feb 15)

Curt Casali C (Feb 12)

Adrian Sampson P (Feb 12)

Jesse Winker OF (Feb 12)

Luis Perdomo P (Feb 10)

Just look at the guys who signed minor league deals as NRIs with other teams since February 1st.  Don't even look at the guys who signed those deals in December and January.  Just look at the recent ones.   It is embarrassing who we signed compared to who was available.

History tells you that the 2024 NRIs have just as little chance to help this team as those from 2023 and 2022.  But we still keep signing these guys who are no more than AA and AAA roster fillers instead of preparing ourselves for inevitable injuries that occur.  

I understand the 165 minor league player limit.  I understand that the better minor league FAs all want opt-out clauses that, without injuries to ML players, sometimes make it hard to keep these players past opening day or May 1st.  I also understand that by having guys like this means that if you have to bring them up to the majors in an emergency,  it doesn't hurt as much to DFA or release them if they don't have a spot on the team. Hey, I don't mind signing guys like we do, but they can't be the only NRIs you bring in.  You have to bring in guys who actually have a chance to help this team coming out of ST if the need is there.  None of these guys do.

This is not a good look for a franchise that saw it doesn't have the money to sign quality or even lower level ML free agents.  You can't have it both ways.   You have to bring in talent either in major league free agents or minor league free agents who have ML track records of success in case you have injuries.  If, like the past two years, these NRIs get play during the ML season the fans have a right to be fighting mad.  The Guardians have played the same game the last 2 years and it has hurt the performance of the team.

It is time to stop this bottom feeding and do the right thing for the fans in Cleveland.  I mean, bringing in quality NRIs is the very LEAST the FO and ownership can do to help us prepare for the season.

Why they don't do this so the fans can field team without career minor leaguers on the roster is bewildering to me.

2024 Draft - Part 9 - Let's Look at Trends at the Top of the Past 10 Drafts - DH, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, C

 OK, in the 3rd of this series we will look at the remaining players drafted in the top 10 picks of each of the last 10 drafts (100 players total).  So far we have looked at outfielders (30 players) and pitchers (38 players).  In this post we will look at the remaining 32 players who cover all the infield positions (C, 1B, 2B, SS and 3B).  As in part 8, the players in bold are HS players.  Their draft slot is in parentheses

DESIGNATED HITTER (One player drafted)

2014 - Kyle Schwarber (4)

CATCHER (Seven)

2023 - Blake Mitchell (8)

2021 - Henry Davis (1) 

2019 - Adley Rutschman (1), Shea Langeliers (9)

2018 - Joey Bart (2)

2016 - Zack Collins (10)

2014 - Alex Jackson (6)

FIRST BASE (Four)

2022 - Jacob Berry (6)

2020 - Spencer Torkelson (1)

2019 - Andrew Vaughan (3)

2017 - Keston Hiura (9)

SECOND BASE (Five)

2022 - Temarr Johnson (4)

2020 - Austin Martin (5), Nick Gonzales (7)  

2018 - Jonathon India (5)

2015 - Brendan Rogers (3)

SHORTSTOP (Eight)

2023 - Jacob Wilson (6)

2022 - Jackson Holliday (1), Brooks Lee (8)

2021 - Macelo Mayer (4), Jordan Lawler (6)

2019 - Bobby Witt Ir. (2), C. J. Abrams (6)

2016 - Dansby Swanson (1)

THIRD BASE (SIX)

2019 - Josh Jung (8)

2018 - Alec Bohm (3), Nick Madrigal (4)

2017 - Royce Lewis (1)

2016 - Nick Senzel (2)

2015 - Alex Bregman (2)

SUMMARY

• Interestingly, except for DH, all groups are represented in 4, 5 or 6 drafts.  
• Except for DH and secondbasemen, at least one 1-1 draft pick came from catcher, 1B, SS and 3B.
• Two 1-1 picks were college catchers
• Only 10 of 29 of these players were HS kids and, unsurprisingly, 5 of those were HS shortstops
• Of the players on the above list, six of them were the #1 overall pick including 2 catchers (Rutschman, Davis), 2 shortstops (Swanson, Holliday), 1 third baseman (Lewis) and 1 firstbaseman (Torkelson)
• 13 were drafted in slots 1-3, 11 in slots 4-6, 7 in slots 7-10.
• Third basemen were drafted higher, on average, than any other group.  
• Buoyed by the higher percentage of shortstops were drafted out of high school more shortstops were drafted than any other position in the listings above, but still fewer than either pitcher or outfielder, if you refer back to Part 7 and 8.

Going just by trends, it would not be impossible to imagine any of these groups from being eliminated, a priori, from being a 1-1 pick.  Obviously, it would depend on the talent in an individual draft, but none of this, just based on trends from the last 10 drafts, eliminates JJ Wetherholt, Travis Bazzana or Nick Kurtz, although Bazzana, as a second baseman, at 1-1 would buck the trends seen at the top of the last 10 drafts, with the highest second baseman having been drafted 1-4.  

Note that the only one 2 way player drafted in the top 10 of any group is Brendan McKay, drafted 4th in 2017.  And we know how that turned out.

Well, there it is.  Looking at the last three installments in this series in total, it would not be impossible to believe that, a priori, any position is out of the question for the Guardians to take #1.  Certainly, HS catchers, outfielders and second baseman would be unlikely and even college second basemen would be problematic, unless that player would be drafted with the intent to move him to a different position which, of course, breaks one of my cardinal rules of the draft: don't draft a high first round pick if the intent is to have him change positions to one he has not played before.

More on the draft coming up in the future.  I hope you enjoyed this 3 part series on trends from the top of the last 10 drafts!

2024 Draft - Part 8 - Let's Look at Trends at the Top of the Past 10 Drafts - Pitchers

 If you read part 7, you know the drill.  In this post we will be looking at pitchers drafted in the last 10 drafts (2014-2023) in the first 10 picks of the draft.  So, let's dive in:

NOTE: High school players are in bold.

2014 - Brady Aiken (1), Tyler Kolek (2), Carlos Rodon (3), Aaron Nola (7), Kyle Freeland (8), Jeff Hoffman (9)

2015 - Dillon Tate (4), Tyler Jay (5), Carson Fulmer (8)

2016 - Ian Anderson (3), Riley Pint (4), AJ Puk (6), Braxton Garrett (7), Cal Quantrill (8), Matt Manning (9)

2017 - Hunter Greene (2), MacKenzie Gore (3), Brendan McKay (4), Kyle Wright (5)

2018 - Casey Mize (1), Ryan Weathers (7), Carter Stewart (8)

2019 - Nick Lodolo (9)

2020 - Max Meyer (3), Asa Lacy (4), Emerson Hancock (6), Reid Detmers (10)

2021 - Jack Leiter (2), Jackson Jobe (3), Frank Mozzicato (7), Sam Bachman (8), Kumar Rocker (9)

2022 - Kumar Rocker (3), Cade Horton (7)

2023 - Paul Skenes (1), Rhett Lowder (7), Chase Dollander (9), Noble Meyer (10)

SUMMARY

In the past 10 Drafts only 3 pitchers (Brady Aiken, Casey Mize, Paul Skenes) have gone #1 overall.  38% of picks in the first 10 picks of the last 10 drafts have been pitchers with only 13 being HS pitchers and 25 being college pitchers.  Of those 38, 12 drafted within the first 3 picks of a draft, 8 in slots 4-6 and 18 were selected in slots 7-10.  

Nothing here would say that the Guardians should avoid picking a college pitcher 1-1.  As 70% of the 1-1 picks in past 10 drafts have been position players and it could have easily been 80% if Crews, the consensus #1 prospect, had gone 1-1 instead of 1-2 last year, the trend would say that the Guardians should go position player in the 1st round unless a college pitcher just blows away the other 1-1 candidates in terms of spring performance combined with the scouting of those players over the previous 2 years.

2024 Draft - Part 7 - Let's Look At Trends Near the Top of the Past 10 Drafts - Outfielders

 Each draft is different.  The strength of the total player pool and individual player types differ.  In 2023, most of the top picks were outfielders, more in any year since 2015.  The strength at the top and the depth throughout the draft differ, too.  For example, 2023 was probably a stronger draft because of the 5-round 2020, COVID-year draft.  Most HS kids who weren't drafted or were drafted and didn't sign in 2020 were eligible for the 1st time in 2023 as college juniors.  So, by definition, 2024 may be weak compared to 2023, as it should revert back to an average year, although experts think that 2024 will be weak even compared to an average draft year.

Although drafts vary in strength and depth, patterns can be discerned.  As we are drafting 1-1, let's limit the analysis of these trends to the first 10 picks in each draft (2014-2023) and see what patterns, per position, we can see for these 100 picks.

Here are the raw numbers for the sum of the first 10 picks for the last 10 drafts:

• 30 outfielders (30% of 10 ten picks in those drafts) were selected
• 15 were HS outfielders and 15 were from college
• Here is the breakdown by which slot these 30 players were selected (C = college, HS = high school)
• #1 - 1 HS (Mickey Moniak, 2016)
• #2 - 2 C, 1 HS
• #3 - 1 HS
• #4 - 2 C
• #5 - 5 HS, 2 C
• #6 - 2 HS
• #7 - 2 C
• #8 - 3 HS, 2 C
• #9 - 2 C
• #10 - 2 HS, 3 C
• Looking at the first 3 picks we 3 HS and 2 college outfielders; in picks 4-6 we see 7 HS and 4 college OFers; in picks 7-10 we see 9 college outfielders and 5 HS outfielders.
• Players and year
• 2014 - Nick Gordon (5), Michael Conforto (10)
• 2015 - Kyle Tucker (5), Andrew Benintendi (7), Ian Happ (9), Cornelius Randolph (10)
• 2016 - Moniak, Corey Ray (5)
• 2017 - Austin Beck (6), Pavin Smith (7), Adam Haseley (8), Jo Adell (10)
• 2018 - Jared Kelenic (6), Kyler Murray (9), Travis Swaggerty (10)
• 2019 - JJ Bleday (4), Riley Greene (5), Hunter Bishop (10)
• 2020 - Heston Kjerstad (2), Robert Hassell (8), Zac Veen (9)
• 2021 - Colton Cowser (5), Benny Montgomery (8)
• 2022 - Druw Jones (2), Elijah Green (5), Gavin Cross (9)
• 2023 - Dylan Crews (2), Max Clark (3), Wyatt Langford ((4), Walker Jenkins (5)

 SUMMARY

Only one time in the last ten drafts has an outfielder been selected #1 overall and that was a HS outfielder, Mickey Moniak who had been a non-factor in MLB until a breakout 2023 season.  No college outfielders were selected #1 overall, although 2 very good prospects, Dylan Crews and Heston Kjerstad, were selected #2 overall, as was HS outfielder Druw Jones, the latter slowly sliding down prospect lists since his draft.  Also, between 2014 and 2019 I only see 5 guys (Conforto, Tucker, Benitendi, Happ and Riley Greene) who I think are really good players.  Others may become good MLers but there were a lot of misses or marginal OFers drafted in the top 10 pitcks in those 10 years and, in most cases, those guys were not near the top of their class in those draft years.  That is, it is only in hindsight that these guys look better than their draft slots.  

Crews was the consensus #1 overall prospect in 2023 but Kjerstad was only the #10 prospect in 2020.  Lots of good players like Conforto, Tucker. Benintendi, Happ have been drafted and if we draft a player of their ilk, or even Colton Cowser, that would be a good, solid selection.  

However, it is not like it is common to draft a college outfielder #1 overall as there have been more college first basemen drafted #1 overall in the past 10 drafts than college outfielders and, even if you count Crews, it is still tied.  It also seems like drafting HS outfielders high inthe first round of the draft in the last 10 years has met with only spotty success, although people can always dream on coming up with Kyle Tucker part deux. 

So how does this impact our #1 overall pick?  It seems that these trends would indicate that we shouldn't bend over backwards to draft an outfielder (college or HS) unless they are clearly at the top of their class come draft time.   It also seems that HS outfielders are preferred early in the draft with college outfielders preferred later in the top 10 picks and that the college outfielders selected are more in the solid MLer category rather than start ML category, although some of that is in the eye of the beholder.   The odds of coming up with a stud player, the type you want to get at 1-1, just are not that good when you draft an outfielder, and those odds seem to go down when you are drafting a toolsy outfielder who needs to develop.  

So, when I see people talking about Charlie Condon, Vance Honeycutt, Seaver King or Mike Sirota or even Konnor Griffin  or Braden Montgomery at 1-1 I am very wary of those picks, especially Honeycutt.  It's going to take a really good spring PLUS good reports from the last couple of years (i.e, no fast risers from where they were in December, 2023), to get me to want to bite on an outfielder at 1-1.  All those guys should be solid first round draft picks but, at 1-1, just don't seem to cut the mustard, at least for me based ont he trends I see from the previous 10 years.

First Blush Look at What the 26-man Would Look Like On Opening Day

 Wow, we haven't even played the first spring training game so we don't even know how injuries would play out through the end of spring training.  

But operating in a perfect world where no one gets injured and everyone performs at an acceptable level, here are my first thoughts about what I think the opening day roster should be.

BENCH/DH

Starting at the end and working back here, I think the most important decisions will be here.  What we are looking for here are guys who can play multiple positions, thus maximizing our bench flexibility and allowing us to have a 4-man bench. So here are my thoughts:

Austin Hedges  C

David Fry C, 1B, 3B, LF, RF

Tyler Freeman 2B, SS, 3B, LF

Deyvison De Los Santos 3B, 1B, LF, RF

Ramon Laureano RF, CF, LF

Reasoning: Fry provides us hitting at 4 positions.   Freeman provides the best current hitting in a backup role of all of our middle infielders and is acceptable defensively.  Laureano is going to make this team unless he is traded which, given his salary, is unlikely.  

Note that this permutation, as the title describes, includes a 5th player (one over normal bench size) who would get ABs as our DH.   I think this means that our DH is rotating between Freeman, De Los Santos, Fry and Florial (see below).

When I see this bench I see guys like Hedges, Fry and Laureano who don't need a lot of ABs.  True veteran backups who soak up whatever playing time is available.  De Los Santos gets whatever ABs he can from DHing and only sees the field once in a blue moon...unless there is an injury, of course. De Los Santos, however, will likely NOT be the primary DH, just someone who can get some ABs there as we evaluate him to maybe begin 2025 in AAA.  Freeman gets a lot of ABs in this permuatation, moving around the IF and, hopefully, the OF as well as being one of the primary DHs.

STARTING POSITION PLAYERS

C - Bo Naylor

1B - Josh Naylor

2B - Andres Gimenez

SS - Gabriel Arias

3B - Jose Ramirez

LF - Steven Kwan

CF - Myles Straw

RF - Estevan Florial

Reasoning - Most of this is set in stone.  I just don't believe that Straw will be able to be traded and I think he will get the first shot in CF.  Arias will get the first shot at SS and Florial will get a shot in RF, backed up by Laureano as a platoon.  I see very few scenarios where Straw, if he is on the team, begins the year on the bench.  But I do see a lot of situations as we get into the season where Florial and Laureano are in the lineup together and Straw is our 4th outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement. 

This permutation means that Brennan, Rocchio, Jonathon Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel, Jose Tena, Juan Brito and Angel Martinez start the year in Columbus.   This is all acceptable to me given that we have to give guys the opportunity to play and we want these guys in Columbus getting regular playing time so they are polished when we need them...and we likely will need them all at some point this year.

ROTATION

Beiber

McKenzie

Allen

Bibee

Williams

Reasoning - If this rotation is healthy I can't see them going with anyone else or with a 6-man rotation.  If someone has to start the year on the IL then Lively is our 6th starter, Gaddis is at 7 and Curry, as an opener, is at 8.  If everyone is healthy, Gaddis and Lively start the year at AAA and Curry is our long man, which leads into a discussion of the bullpen.,,

BULLPEN

Closer - Clase

Setup/backup closer - Barlow

Setup - Stephan

Middle Relievers: Morgan, Hentges, Sandlin, Karinchak

Long man - Curry

Reasoning - This is our bullpen from last year with Barlow substituting for Enyel De Los Santos.  It should be a solid bullpen and has arms like Herrin, Aleman and Cade Smith and, of course, our AAAA minor league invitees backing them up.  The latter group should only be in play if we have multiple, significant injuries because we will likely have a full 40-man roster.   Smith and Herrin should be first men up in case of an injury because they are both rostered and the choice between Aleman and the AAAA guys will likely be based on the fact that the AAAA guys are fungible if we have to DFA one of them to take someone off the IL or bring up another non-rostered guy from the minors.  Aleman may not be called up because he would still be considered an asset at that point who we would not want to lose on waivers.

SUMMARY

So, this is my logic as we start full workouts.    I know different people will have different opinions but I think Fry deserves to be on this roster and I think Florial and De Los Santos will be given every regular season opportunity to fail, just like Bobby Bradley, Franmil Reyes and Oscar Gonzalez were.  The rest of the team, barring injuries, is pretty set and we even have some flex for injuries on the position player side, with less quality flexibility in the bullpen and even less in the rotation, although it's not like our 26-man roster guys with AAAA guys being our only backups in either the rotation or the bullpen.

The Race to Be 1-1 in 2024 - Part 1 - Reviewing the First College Weekend

 The race for who will be selected 1-1 in 2024 has officially begun.

First, my disclaimer.  I give less weight to what a guy has done more recently than most people do.  For both college and HS players, between playing for their school and all the summer ball and showcase circuit looks that scouts have, they have a good book on all players.  In my opinion guys should fall MUCH more than they should rise based on the small sample size of their 2024 seasons.  

Still, we are talking 1-1 here so nuance between similar guys DOES matter and, in situations where guys at the very top do look meh in their 2024 play, a guy MIGHT, if all the stars align, sneak into the #1 slot if every other reasonable option falls on his face for some reason (performance, off-field stuff, injury).

So let's dive in, looking at how guys are doing:

TOP 6

1. JJ Wetherholt - He was easing into his college season vs. Stetson (4-13, 3 SB) while playing SS.  However, he ended that weekend yesterday when he injured his hamstring.  Any injury in your draft year is significant so this is something to watch.  

2. Nick Kurtz -  I did a little more of deeper dive into Kurtz's weekend than I did with any other player.  In his first 3 games he went 4-12 with 1 HR, 1 BB and 1 K, while easing into his season.  Nothing spectacular, just solid.  In the deeper dive I found that he averaged 3 pitches per AB, explaining having only 1 walk.  Of the 52 pitches he saw he only swung and missed 4 times, had 9 called strikes, 19 balls and 9 fouls.  When he put the ball in play, besides his hits, he hit 4 FO to LF (and one single), 3 FO to CF (2 advanced runners) and 0 FO to RF (2 singles, 1 HR).  He did not hit a groundball at all, none for outs and none of his hits were ground balls.  So, an inordinate number of balls hit to LF, trying to lift every ball but showing excellent bat-to-ball skills for a power hitter.  Not a great weekend.  Nothing to write home about, just him not moving down in my thinking...but nothing to solidify him being 1-1 over his competitors.

3. Travis Bazzana - He had the best weekend of any of the hitters truly competing for selection at 1-1.  The videos of his pre-season work on his own showed that he likely hit the ground running, maybe more than anyone else at the top of this draft class.  The results were indisputable: co-national player of the week,  9-16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 3 BB, 4 K.  The best first weekend of any of the players in the conversation for 1-1.  I will say this, though.  On the video of his triple he didn't exactly appear like he was burning it around the bases so I am wondering about his 60 speed grade, at least a little right now.  Has he thickened up at all, sacrificing speed for more power?  Time will tell.

4. Charlie Condon - His first weekend he went 7-11 with 3 doubles, 2 BB and 1 K, against weak competition, basically holding serve for his lofty position in this draft class.

5. Joc Caglianone - He went 2-4 with a walk while playing 1B in the only game of a 3 game series against St. John that was NOT rained out.  

6. Vance Honeycutt - The only potential 5-tool player at the top of this draft, Honeycutt came in with questions about his hit tool and contact rate.  He has never hit over .300 in college and has a problem with contact, striking out a lot.  In his first weekend over 15 plate appearances  (12 ABs). Honeycutt showed his penchant for hitting for power (2 HRs), but also went 2-12 with 4 Ks,  It's early, but nothing in this first weekend causes him to move up, IMHO.

THE RISER(S) OF THE WEEK

Risers, to me, are guys who actually have a chance to get to 1-1.  Yeah, guys have great weekends and great seasons but only certain guys have the stuff to make them worth the gamble of being selected at 1-1.  It's early in the season so we only have one riser this week:

Chase Burns - Burns came into the season with hype regarding his fastball (regularly hits 100 mph) and slider (true swing-and-miss monster) and acceptance of his control as being at least average,  but questions about the straightness of his FB (23 HR in 152 college innings), his command and his lack of a 3rd pitch.  If he doesn't show that his 3rd pitch is at least average right now, he could be destined for the bullpen...and you don't want to draft a guy 1-1 if you are hoping for significant improvement to justify that lofty selection.

In his first start of the year, he did exactly what you would expect against lesser competition from a cold-weather state: he dominated.  Showing his good FB velocity, wipeout slider and control, he ended up keeping himself at least in the discussion for 1-1 with a 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 10 K game. He threw 88 pitches, a little high for a 1st start.  Two of the 3 singles he gave up were in his last inning.  For the game, not counting the balls in play, he had 23 swinging strikes, 17 called strikes, 10 foul balls and threw an alarming 30 balls, meaning he threw close to 40% balls.  Rust and nerves in his first time out?  Probably.  But he had at least good control last year and this did not look like good control although he didn't allow hard contact, either. 

So, Burns kept himself in the conversation at 1-1 but it doesn't appear that he enhanced his status, either.

Prospects On the Hot Seat This Spring

When I title a post like this, people might think I am going to be talking about prospects who are close to or in the majors; those who have not established themselves yet but are on the brink of being MLB regulars or disappearing into the minors forever as AAAA players.  So, while guys like Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, Juan Brito, Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Gabrel Arias, Jhonkensy Noel, George Valera, Jonathon Rodriguez, Estevan Florial, Deyvison De Los Santos, Daniel Espino, Will Brennan and others have a lot to prove in what might be a make-or-break year for many of them, that is not who this post is about.

Instead, let's talk about guys further down the minors who truly are at an important crossroad in their career.  Guys who need to do it this year or maybe never will, at least not with Cleveland.   Not all of this pressure falls on the shoulders of the players, either.  It falls on the people who drafted them very high in the draft, front offices who acquired them in trades for viable major leaguers and in the Player Development department whose job it is enhance the skills that these players came to the Guardians with.

So let's dive in...in no particular order of importance.

Alex Mooney, SS - 2023 draft 6th round (bonus $1 million, equivalent to a 2nd rd. pick)

Why am I starting with a 6th round draft pick you might ask?  Mooney, to me, is the poster child for this draft team.  Since we have gone to 20 rounds in this draft, the Guardians had signed every player they drafted in both 2021 and 2022.  They also went over the bonus allotment by 4.99% in both years, meaning they spent as much money as they could spend on those 21 picks each year without forfeiting a draft choice.  Basically, they had a blueprint and worked that blueprint to perfection.  Not that I liked the 2022 draft.  I didn't.  But you gotta give them credit.  The guys they drafted they fit into that bonus allotment like world-class jigsaw puzzle masters.

Then we come to 2023.  Last year the Guardians signed only 19 of their 21 selections.   Well that's pretty good, you say.  But it's not 21, like in the previous 2 years.  

One hypothesis is that Mooney, a draft-eligible sophomore, required a much higher bonus than anticipated.  For a master jigsaw puzzle guy you just can't give them a puzzle piece bigger than what it is supposed to be or the whole thing doesn't fit together.   I think that is what happened with Mooney.  I think the intent all along was to sign Mac Heuer and Ryan Marohn.   However, when Mooney requested a larger bonus  ($1 million, making him, essentially, as important as a 2nd round pick) than expected and stuck to those demands, the Guardians had two choices.  Punt on Mooney and sign the two HS pitchers or sign Mooney and lose the two HS pitchers, both of whom, in my opinion, were set to sign for bonuses right in line with the puzzle pieces within the bonus structure they represented.

I think they decided that Mooney, a draft-eligible sophomore, was a higher priority and gave him a HUGE bonus for a 6th round pick.

So that is why Mr. Mooney and the Guardians draft brain trust is on the hot seat. That plus the fact that Mooney's first minor league season sucked huge, rotten eggs.  He hit .152 with a .470 OPS.

Million dollar college bonus babies shouldn't struggle like that against 18-, 19- and 20-year olds.  So let's give Mr. Mooney a mulligan on last year.  

But, this year, he and the Guardians' draft team have a lot to prove relative to him not only proving he is worth that bonus but proving that he was worth more than Mr. Marohn and Mr. Heuer.

Parker Messick, LHP - 2022 Draft - 2nd round

The Guardians stacked the deck in Messick's favor by starting him at Lynchburg last year.  On paper, he was only slightly older than average but that is skewed somewhat as teams will send their organizational soldiers (like the Guardians with college late round draft picks Tyrese Turner and others) there to fill holes on teams.  For a 22 year old 2nd round pick to start his pro career at Lynchburg stacks the deck in his favor.  The soft tossing, command specialist did OK at A ball but had a 1.1 WHIP against younger hitters with only 1 HR allowed.  When he promoted mid-season to the more age-appropriate Lake County, his numbers tanked with a 1.33 WHIP and 10 HR and 11 HB in 65 IP.  To his credit he maintained his K rate after the promotion with almost a doubling of his walk rate.

Messick's performance was one of the most disappointing for a 2022 Guardians' draft pick and had t not been for the poor performances by Joe Lampe and the poor Lake County performance by Nate Furman after his promotion from Lynchburg, Messick's poor stats at Lake County would look even worse.

The issue with Messick was that he didn't have power pitches to get hitters out, leading to long ABs and short outings, with him only going 4+ innings on average in Lynchburg.  His innings total was good at 121, up from 98 in college so he is set for a full season in 2024 where he will likely either make or break his career.  

Messick wasn't a terrible pick, but in my 2022 mock draft I went for a hitter rather than a soft-tossing college pitcher who I felt didn't have a very high ceiling.  Between Messick and Player Development, let's hope they can produce a guy worthy of a second round pick.

Doug Nikhazy, LHP, 2nd rd, 2021 and Tommy Mace, RHP, 2 rd supplemental, 2021

This is a classic case of good draft picks not developing or, at best, developing more slowly than expected.  Nikhazy has not harnessed his control in 2 full years in the minors, walking almost 100 batters in 2023 and Mace not harnessing his command/developed his stuff, leading to him not missing many bats during the 2023 season.

Call it the Guardians' pitching factory, call in the Guardians' Finishing School for College Pitchers...call it what you want.  The truth is that whatever the pitching gurus in Cleveland are selling, Nikhazy and Mace are not buying.  

Is it possible that we have lost enough pitching development people that the 'factory' is non-operational any longer?  Maybe.  

To me, this is a no-brainer.  These polished college pitchers should be more effective than they are now, especially when you consider the success that almost every college pitcher picked in the 2021 draft by Cleveland has been more effective than Nikhazy and Mace.  Almost every one.  Look it up.

The Guardians need Nikhazy and Mace to develop to provide major league depth in the second half of th 2024 or, at least, be valuable trade bait.  The factory needs to get their machinery running and tool up these guys.

Tanner Burns, RHP, 1st rd. supplemental, 2020

2020, outside of Logan Allen, was a really disappointing draft for the Guardians.  There is still a chance for this draft and a lot of the improvement in the output would come from Burns positioning himself as a ML pitching option.  

Burns, like Mace, has shown very limited ability to miss bats.  However, when he was moved to the bullpen in Akron last August, he pitche in 10 games, putting up 11.2 innings and gave up 2 ER on 9 hits, 3 BB and 9 K and 0 HR.

Obviously relievers can hump up on the fastball and Burns certainly showed an increase in velocity when I saw him out of the bullpen, hitting 94-95 compared to his 91-92 as a starter.  This made his off-speed stuff play up.  

As the 15 appearances he made out of the bullpen in 2024 were the first he had EVER made in his college/pro career, there is a lot to dream on with him making a big jump as a reliever in 2024, maybe even ending up in the Guardians' bullpen or as a valuable trade chip at some point in calendar 2024.  However, if he fails to make this conversion, he now becomes a failed professional starter and a failed professional reliever after being moved from starter.  That is a tough sell for any organization to give him an extended chance in AAA, let alone the majors.

Pitching factory...have at it!

Joe Lampe OF, 3rd rd 2022, Justin Boyd OF 2S, 2022 (Reds), Nate Furman 2B, 4th round 2022, Steve Hajjar, LHP, 2nd rd, 2021 (Twins)

I have lumped these 4 together because they are all over-hyped underperformers.  Lampe and Furman are LH slap hitters from the 2022 draft and Boyd and Hajjar were obtained for Will Benson, with Boyd being a 2nd round supplemental pick in 2022.  

None of them performed well in 2023 with Boyd (.140 BA, .490 OPS at Lake County) and Hajjar (52 BB/57 innings at Lake County) being pathetic and Lampe and Furman just being bad at Lake County, although Furman looked good beating up younger pitchers at Lynchburg.  This, again, a situation where the players themselves and the Player Development department have to pull a rabbit out of a hat and turn these guys into viable prospects.

SUMMARY

Each of these guys have 3 things in common: 

(1) They were college draftees

(2) They were high draft picks

(3) They have flamed out or stalled in the middle minors, some even in A ball, something that shouldn't happen to college-polished high draft picks.  

There is time for each of these guys to reach the potential exemplified by their draft slot and tools.  But this is the year where they need to make that happen.  Guys with these pedigrees just don't flame out before they get to AA or AAA.  They just don't, at least not in an organization like Cleveland where their lifeblood is generating major leaguers from their player development system.

These are the kind of guys who can make a minor league system successful or, if they all fail, can make our system much thinner than it should be, given that we don't spend money bringing in veterans in trades (of prospects) or free agency.

The time is now.  No one should sleep on the importance of these guys having successful years.  I know I will be rooting hard for their success.  Besides being important to them it is INCREDIBLY important to the Guardians that they are successful.

New Rules - How Will They Impact Teams' Control of Minor League Players

Yesterday's announcement that the complex leagues in Florida and Arizona will now start playing in May and end before the 2024 draft was shocking to a lot of prospect geeks.  People are scrambling to see what it all means to player development and player control.  Let's unpack what I think it means, pending official word from MLB.  

However, as we dive into this new rule, it is important to know that it is not the only recent rule change that impacts prospect development/control. Here are some important, recent changes, including the complex league schedule change, that impact a team's ability to control their prospects.

• MiLB CBA -
• Players 19 and older (essentially college-age players) reach minor league free agency 6 years from the date they are signed, assuming they turned 19 by June 5th of the year they were drafted/signed.   This means these players only have 5 full seasons to be placed on a team's 40 man roster or they can become MiLB free agents.   This is a drop of one year from the previous rule. Remember that college players also reach Rule 5 status one year earlier than HS draftees and most players signed from Latin America.
• Players signed before their 19th birthday (generally HS and young international signees) fall under the previous rule, get 7 seasons, meaning they get their signing/draft year plus another 6 full seasons before they can become an MiLB free agent.  This is the same rule that used to apply to all players.
• Maximum Minor League Reserved Lists In 2024
• An MLB team may only have a total of 165 players on their US minor league reserve lists.  Down from 180 last year, this means that teams with a traditional minor league system (AAA, AA, A+, A and Complex League) will have, on average, an average of 33 players on each of these rosters.  This will impact the depth in every organization as teams will likely have to release prospects who have not progressed as fast as other players and these multiyear project players (e.g., Tommy Ventimiglia of the Guardians) might not be signed any longer if, as with Ventimiglia, he might not truly be ready for affiliated baseball until his game is polished up significantly. These hard decisions will no doubt cause teams to lose talented players simply because they have no room for them under this 165 player umbrella.
•  As I understand it, signed draftees MUST be included in the 165 players at the conclusion of the draft signing period in a given year, even if the new rule described below on the change in the complex league seasons makes it impossible for these players to play in their draft year.
• This list does not include players on Dominican Rosters unless those players are added to a US affiliate.  
• The 165 player limit does not include players on long-term injury/inactive lists but does include players on shorter term (7 day) injury lists. The limited roster size also could hurt here as teams may not have enough replacements to cover a large number of short term injuries, even when those injuries are spread across a lot of teams.
• The list does include players on a team's 40-man roster but not on the MLB team's 26 man roster.  
• This total US minor league player limitation will also likely eliminate teams from have two entries in a complex league as has happened in the past as teams simply can't populate SIX US minor league affiliates if they only have 165 players to fill those rosters.
• The list is fluid during the season.  If your minor league system is full at 165 and you send a player to the minors, another player would likely have to be released.  Under this rule, for example, teams that make deadline deals where they acquire prospects might be required to release players so they have spots for the acquired prospects.
• Elimination of Short-Season A Teams
• In the new CBA a whole level of the minor leagues, what is called the short-season A leagues, was eliminated.  This was a level that college draftees generally played in during their draft year and many HS players played in during their first full season after their draft year.  Without these leagues and in combination with the new rule of the complex league season, (see below) this will make it difficult for draftees (college of HS) to find places to play their first season in the minor leagues even those these players are required to be counted in the 165.  Inclusion of draftees on the in-season 165 number may cause a number of in-season releases of players to accomodate these new draftees entering the 165 player reserve lists. 
• International Signing Period
• Implemented in 2021 due to the pandemic, teams now can sign players if they are 16 years old or older on Jan. 15th.  
• This change removed the ability of a team from signing a 'futures' player.  In the past teams would sign these players on or after Aug. 15th when the DSL essentially was about to end their season.  MLB allowed teams to not start the service clock for those players until the next year, giving them a whole year of development before their service time clock started. 
• Now players sign on Jan 15th and are able to start their playing careers the same calendar year in the DSL.  This allows the players to play more quickly but means they can become minor league free agents almost one year younger than in the previous CBA.  
• The Ivan Herrera Exemption
• Until this year the MLB has treated 2020 as a full season (>90 days) of service time for minor leaguers toward their Rule 5 eligibility, minor league free agency AND their minor league options.  Once placed on the 40-man roster, a player can be sent to the minors in 3 different seasons without passing through waivers.  If they are sent to the minors in a 4th season, they have to clear waivers before they can be sent to the minors.  MLB can award a team a 4th option with a player IF a team has used up all 3 minor league options with that player before that player has completed 5 full minor league seasons.  A season in the DSL, ACL or FCL isn't considered a full season as it lasts for less than 90 days.  Also, if the player suffers a major injury and isn't on an active roster for more than 90 days, that season doesn't count, in and of itself, as a full season, either.   Recently, there was an example that I don't think has precedent.  The Cardinals were given a 4th option year for catcher Ivan Herrera because one of his 5 full professional seasons was 2020 and MLB determined that, in this instance, since Herrera was in the minors in 2020, that season would not count as a full season.  This example is huge because the Guardians (and all teams) have players like Jhonkensy Noel and other top Latin prospects who are in the identical situation as Herrera.  
• Change in the Playing Season For Complex League Teams
• The Arizona and Florida complex leagues will start play in May and end by June 22nd, meaning that players drafted in July would have to play in A or A+ leagues as the complex leagues would already be finished by the time the draft was completed.  
• MLB has not ruled on whether the draft year for players will still count as their first year or service or whether players can sign a 'future' contract if they are drafted.  

My Thoughts

Every one of the above rule changes, with the exception of the Ivan Herrera exemption, have the potential to limit the control that teams have with their minor league assets.  There IS the possibility that the change in the playing season for complex leagues will not limit control (minor league free agency) but only if teams are given the ability to sign their draftees to future contracts, something that was, supposedly, taken away in the new CBA.  If teams are not given this pathway, players may count against this 165 limit in their draft year even though they don't have a place to play real games.

When you are a small market team like the Guardians, amateur player acquisition and development are probably the most important ways to build a major league team.  The more rules that are put in place that hamstring teams who lean heavily on player development, the more difficult it will be for those teams to compete at the ML level..  

It appears to me that these recent rule changes affect a team's years of control and development of international amateur free agents and high school draft picks disproportionately and that is a problem as these two groups are historically the slowest to develop to their full potential in the minor leagues and teams may have to make decisions to release some good prospects from these groups because they simply will not have enough roster spots. 

The trends seen in the rules above seem to dis-favor small market teams and this is a disturbing trend that I hope MLB finds ways, like the Herrera exemption, to reverse this trend and favor teams that simply can erase their player development mistakes by signing multiple expensive free agents.  MLB needs to do something for the little guy.  But will they?

Time will tell.

2024 Draft - Part 6 - An Early Look Beyond 1-1 - Mock Draft 1.0 for Rounds 1-10

 OK, all the focus, understandably, for the Guardians 2024 draft is on the team's first EVER #1 overall pick.  I get it.  Lots of reasons to focus on that one.  

But let's be honest, with the #10 slot in each round and a high Comp A pick this year, they should be able to put together the best quality draft in rounds 1-10 they have ever had.

I will preface this post by saying that I am absolutely the worst at predicting how the draft will go.  Last year I was sure that Myles Naylor would easily be there for their second round pick (#58) or even their competitive balance pick (#62) and he wasn't. going 39th to the A's.   I could point to many more examples over the years where I thought a guy was certain to be available in a certain point, but he was gone long before that slot.   So, buyer beware in reading the rest of this post!

Let's first look at where the Guardians pick with their 1st 11 picks (rounds 1-10) in 2024.  Note that some of the numbers may change slightly depending on where remaining QO FAs sign.  

Comp Balance A pick: 36

2nd round: 48

3rd round: 85 

4th round: 115

5th round: 149 

6th round: 179

7th round: 209

8th round: 239

9th round: 269

10th round: 299

So the Guardians will have 11 picks within the top 300 of the draft.  

Let's now look at who might be our picks in each round.  Again, this is just my mock draft 1.0 and we have already established how bad I am at mock drafts because guys I think have a particular value are always valued higher than where I see them ranked in various internet rankings.  Nonetheless, here is my first mock draft of 2024:

1: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (#2 by MLB Pipeline)

36: Gage Jump, LHP, Louisiana St. (#46 by MLB Pipeline)

48: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (#50 MLB Pipeline)

85:  James Tibbs, OF, Florida St. (#81 MLB Pipeline)

115: Tyler Head, OF, HS (#42 Prospect Live HS prospect)

149: Datin Horn, RHP, Coastal Carolina (#123 Prospects Live college prospect)

179. Daalen Adderly, IF/OF, Loyola Marymount (college Sr, not ranked)

209. Ryan Campos, C, Arizona St. (#145 college prospect, Future Star Series)

239. Andrew Armstrong, RHRP, Florida State (college Sr, not ranked) or Drew Dowd, RHRP, Stanford (college Sr., not ranked)

269: Drew Graham, LHP, HS (#39, Prospects Live HS prospect, not listed in MLB Pipeline top 100)

299: Trey Gregory-Alford, RHP, HS (#87 MLB Pipeline, hoping, like Zibin last year, he drops to this spot)

Again, temper this with my history of guys that I like being drafted a lot higher than where they are ranked in the various rankings that exist out there.  But I think at least I am in the ballpark.

NOTES: 

• If Kevin Bazzell, C, Texas Tech, is available at 48, I draft him over Amick.  Bazzell is one of those guys ranked anywhere from the mid-40s to 85 or so but someone I think could easily slip into the top 25.  If we draft Bazzell that likely changes my thinking on Campos in the 7th round and I go for Kolby Branch, 2B, Georgia or Brady Day, 2B, Kansas State, both of whom are good bat-to-ball professional college hitters with Branch likely being more pricey as he is a very old (22) draft-eligible sophomore and we saw last year how Alex Mooney was able to rob us using that leverage in 2023.
• I am saving money on Adderly, who I like as an undervalued college senior  (I comp him to Corey Wimberly who I liked in the 2005 draft) and Armstrong (or Dowd) who I like college senior signings who have a good relief stats for quality college programs.  If one of those pitchers is still available on the 3rd day I pick them, starting in the 12th round.
• Graham and Gregory-Alford are guys I like but they really serve as placeholders for a blueprint that the Guardians in 2022 with Zibin and Humphries.  That is, getting quality HS pitchers who have dropped and overspending on them because you have money left over.  This blueprint may even be more doable in 2024 with the money they likely will save at 1-1 and there are always HS pitchers who think they are worth more than their draft slot and are not afraid to go to college to prove it.  My research on the last few drafts showed me that these HS pitchers normally sit in the 35-110 spots in ranking before the draft.
• Head in the 4th is the same blueprint the Guardians used with Jake Fox in 2021, grabbing a HS OFer in the midst of a bunch of college players.
• As far as rounds 11-20, I will wait until closer to the draft to give you my feelings about possible 3rd day draftees.  I think, if we are able to follow a blueprint similar to what is above, we will have money to spend on HS and college flyers.  In 2023 we lost the flexibility to sign HS pitchers Heuer and Marohn because we ran out of money.  I see us using the same philosophy in 2024, except that we should have the money to pull it off this time, maybe even adding 1-2 more of these flyers as I am hoping that we will go over budget again, maxing out at 4.99% above our allotted draft budget (thus avoiding losing a future 1st round pick).  Note, however, that my research has told me that the only true prospects available as flyers after the 10th round will be HS pitchers so any money spent on these guys will stand a high risk of going into a black hole as later round HS pitchers are one of the most risky groups of crashing and burning long before reaching the majors.  However, like with Heuer and Marohn, the more the merrier in the minors as Zibin, Humphries, Keegan Zinn and Jacob Bresnahan, the latter two from 2023, tell you.

Guardians Prospect Rankings - Pre-Spring Training, 2024 ***UPDATED***

OK, major league spring training is about to start and minor league spring training is 2+ weeks behind that.  So I thought I would put together a way-too-early prospect list.  I have excluded the following prospects as I feel they will soon exhaust their rookie status as defined by 130 AB or 50 IP:

• Brayan Rocchio
• Tim Herrin
• David Fry
• Hunter Gaddis

I have also excluded Deyvison De Los Santos who will likely make the big league roster or be returned to the Diamondbacks.  So, while he is currently in our system right now he might not be before the start of the minor league system.  If I had to rate him right now in the list below, he would be #10 on my list, obviously pushing everyone below him down 1 spot.

With those exclusions in hand, here is my list of the top 100+ prospects in the Guardians' system.  Note that there will only be 165 players allowed in any organization's system although players on Dominican Summer League rosters do not count against the 165.

NOTE: UPDATED THE LIST BELOW W/ OUR RULE 5 MINOR LEAGUE DRAFT PICKUPS

1. Chase DeLauter

2. Juan Brito

3. Daniel Espino

4. Jaison Chourio

5. Kyle Manzardo

6. George Valera

7. Alex Clemmey

8. Jose Tena

9. Joey Cantillo

10. Angel Martinez

11. Ralphy Velazquez

12. Andrew Walters

13. Angel Genao

14. Khalil Watson

15. Welbyn Francisca

16. Ryan Webb

17. Robert Arias

18. Jonathon Rodriguez

19. Jhonkensy Noel

20. Rafael Ramirez Jr.

21. Will Dion

22. Dayan Frias

23. Jacob Zibin

24. Petey Halpin

25. Jake Fox

26. Justin Campbell

27. Cade Smith

28. Jackson Humphries

29. Ethan Hankins

30. Franco Aleman

31. Tanner Burns

32. Doug Nikhazy

33. C. J. Kayfus

34. Daniel Schneeman

35. Parker Messick

36. Cooper Ingle

37. Jose Devers

38. Wuilfredo Antunez

39. Robert Lopez

40. Brayan Lavastida

41. Alex Mooney

42. Ross Carver

43. Nick Mikolajchak

44. Jose Pirela

45. Yerlin Luis

46. Jack Leftwich

47. Shawn Rapp

48. Alexfri Planez

49.  Joe Lampe

50. Justin Boyd

51. Juan Benjamin

52. Davis Sharpe

53. Nate Furman

54. Milan Tolentino

55. Tyler Thornton

56. Micah Pries

57. Raynel Delgado

58. Aaron Bracho

59. Lenny Torres, Jr.

60. Jose Cedeno

61. Andrew Misiaszek

62. Gabriel Rodriguez the elder

63. Tommy Mace

64. Connor Kokx

65. Victor Izturis

66. Dylan DeLucia

67. Hunter Stanley

68. Luis Oviedo

69. Magnus Ellerts

70. Aaron Davenport

71. Reid Johnston

72. Kody Huff

73. Trey Benton

74. Yorman Gomez

75. Alonzo Richardson

76. Miguel Flores

77. Gabriel Rodriguez the younger

78. Juneiker Caceres

79. Manuel Mejias

80. Bradley Hanner

81. Randy Labaut

82. Christian Knapczyk

83. Yeury Gervacio

84. Estivel Morillo

85. Luis Reyson De La Cruz

86. Alberto Mendes

87. Nic Enright

88. Christian Cairo

89. Luis Merejo

90. Yaikel Mijaras

91. Mack Collado

92. Trenton Denholm

93. Isaiah Greene

94. Josh Wolf

95. Luis Aparicio

96. Jonathon Martinez

97. Esteban Gonzalez

98. Matt Wilkinson

99. Keegan Zinn

100. Javier Santos

101. Luis Durango Jr.

102. Evilio Hernandez

103. Melkis Hernandez

104. Jordan Jones

105. Adam Tulloch

106. Edelvis Perez

107.  Austin Aldeano

108. Jake Miller

109. Fran Alduey

110. Tommy Hawke

111. Guy Lipscomb

112. Jacob Bresnahan

113. Juan Frances

114. Johan Rodriguez

115. Dauri Fernandez

116. Randy Martinez

117. Tommy Reyes

118. Nelson Arangguren

119. Logun Clark

120. Jay Driver

121. Jonah Advincula

122. Geo Rivera Jr.

123. Zach Pettway

124. Yelferth Castillo

125. Romar Taveras

126. Heibert Silva

127. Yorfran John

128. Yanki Baptiste

129. Jose Pastrano

130. Brian Eichhorn

131. Connor Gillispie

132. Mason Hickman

133. Micael Ramirez

134. Andrew Teaney

135. Carson Tucker

136. Richard Paz

137. Allan Hernandez

138. Sergio Morillo

139. Junior Sanquintin

140. Yordys Valdez

141. Johny Tincher

142. Tyler Brown

143. Elvis Jerez

144. Victor Planchart

145. Hugo Villalobos

146. Rodney Boone

147. Austin Peterson

148. Angel Zarate

149. Tyrese Turner

150. Pres Cavanaugh

151. Jeff Jasak

152. John Doxaxis

153. Zach Hart

154. Cesar Idrogo

2024 Draft - Part 5 - Beau Mills - A Cautionary Tale

 OK, I have been writing Cleveland baseball articles on the internet for a long, long time.   Probably close to 20 years.  Going through my files the other night I came across two articles I wrote in 2007 about Cleveland's draft that year, the latter being an interview with John Mirabelli.  To set the stage for that draft, we had a middling (13th overall) first round pick and then lost our 2nd & 3rd round picks that year for signing free agents.  Our next pick was a 4th round pick. 

In the words of Mirabelli at the time, he had to have success with that first round pick since he didn't have 2nd and 3rd round picks,  so he decided to make a 'safe' selection.  At the time he didn't use these words but 'safe' in draft jargon, usually means high floor and, generally, low ceiling.  Basically, if things work out, you get a solid, Paul Sorrento/Ben Broussard kinda guy. Not an all-star but a regular contributor.

Beau Mills was a college first baseman/DH type eligible for the 2007 draft.  He was a baseball brat, being the son of Brad Mills.  He played at a small 4-yr college (Lewis & Clark in Idaho) and had an injured shoulder at draft time that caused him, along with the low level of competition he saw in college, to drop a little in the draft.   At the time I asked Mirabelli why they drafted a first baseman early when they had Hafner and other first base prospects up and down the system.  He said that Mills was that safe selection.  The type he was pretty sure would work out.

Well, unfortunately for the Guardians, Mills didn't work out, never even making it to the majors.  He was one of many failed first round picks for the Guardians over the years and each one has set the tightly-run organization back in terms of player resources to plug in or trade.  

My pick for that first round slot in 2007 was Blake Beavan, a HS pitcher with huge upside.  Beavan ended up going 17th to the Rangers and pitched parts of 4 seasons with Seattle, amassing 1.7 WAR and a 16-20 record and 4.61 ERA over those 4 seasons with a very poor 11% K rate.   But he did make the majors.  Beavan was the high risk (HS pitcher)/high reward guy.   In hindsight, Jason Heyward, a HS outfielder, was drafted immediately after Mills and Devin Mesoraco, a HS catcher,  drafted immediately after Heyward.  Both became all-stars during their careers,  Including these two, 11 of the 17 first round picks selected AFTER Mills played in the majors, making the 'safe' pick of Mills look even worse.   In the 2007 only 2 of the 26 players signed by Cleveland (22 players didn't end up signing), TJ McFarland and Josh Judy, ended up playing in the majors meanng this draft rivaled one of the worst in Cleveland history in success rate. 

In 2024 we will have the #1 overall pick in the draft.  But similar to 2007, we will have two choices:  make a safe pick who might not have high upside but will likely become a solid major league regular or, unlike Mirabelli and Cleveland in 2007, go for the gusto/brass ring and draft a higher risk player who has higher upside.  

In my opinion this draft is so weak at the top and most guys who might even be considered for that first pick have enough warts that the best choice is to go with Wetherholt or Kurtz, the safe picks in the draft at 1-1 and don't go for a late riser like flamethrower Chase Burns or a toolsy guy like college OFer Vance Honeycutt, both of whom have intriguing upside but many questions that could end up making them busts that we get little or nothing out of.  

But the story of Beau Mills shows that even if you go the 'safe' path, you sometimes come to a dead end.  And dead ends are something a cash strapped franchise like Cleveland cannot afford. 

2024 Draft - Part 4 - Sins of the Father

Sins have, and should have, a very negative connotation.  So, just to level-set, in baseball terms I will be talking in this post about sins as defined by what I consider inexcusable, potentially job-costing mistakes.  Now, we all have made mistakes in our work lives.  I did. But never job-costing mistakes which explains, in part, why I worked for one company for the majority of my adult life.  

The expression the sins of the father being visited upon the son is what this post is about.  The worry I have is that the sins of previous drafts and years of FO squandering resources will be visited on decisions Cleveland makes regarding their 2024 draft picks.

Sins in baseball terms, to me, mean decisions that impact not only the present of a team but the future, too.  It is well-known that I am at odds with the Guardians' front office and, especially, their draft team.  Some of the mistakes they have made should have been baseball sins and, at least with the scouting director position, likely did cost some jobs. However, unfortunately, when these people leave, they leave their messes behind them.  

So, how does all this impact the 2024 draft?

The current Guardians' ML roster and farm system have the following issues:

• Too many MIF prospects in the pipeline
• No power hitting outfielders in the pipeline except those who have potentially career-threatening issues with contacting the baseball. This includes no real CF prospects other than slap hitters.
• A ML roster without good outfielders, save Steven Kwan, of course.
• Too many slap hitters in the pipeline
• A gap between starting pitching on the ML roster and the next wave of pitching prospects
• A lack of quality starting pitching prospects in the low minors which should, but currently doesn't, represent the second wave of starting pitchers who would be available by 2026.
• No viable, top tier, catching prospects in the entire organization.

The Guardians have the #1 overall pick in this year's draft.  The normal goal in a draft should be, with all picks, to pick the best available, signable prospect, regardless of position.  This should be especially true when you have that top pick.  However, when your farm system and ML has a glaring weakness or two, the temptation would be to fill weaknesses as you can convince yourself, as a draft person, that there are LOTS of good players at the top of the draft that span almost the entire spectrum of player types and, likely, you can get one of those hole-filling guys at a lower price, savng money for later in the draft.

There are two truths about this draft, however, that make 2024 different from most drafts:

• This is one of the weakest drafts, at the top in recent memory.  Three things about that:
• This year's top two prospects, Nick Kurtz and JJ Wetherholt, would probably rank in the #5 to #9 range compared to the top prospects from the 2023 draft.  That is huge!  
• There is a pretty big gap in surety of being good major leaguers between the top 3 prospects in this draft and the next 7.  In my opinion, there is a decent chance that picks 3-10 will be guys who, last year, might have been picked in the 15-20 range
• Players know their own worth.  In a weak draft you will likely overpay for talent but still should be able to save money, especially at 1-1, no matter who you pick.
• None of the available top 3 players plays a position of need for the Guardians

For the Guardians, these impressions create a problem.  Do the sins of previous Guardians draft minds and front office (through trades of prospects, lack of good FA signings) create a situation where the Guardians will use their first ever #1 pick on someone who is not close to the top talent in this weak draft just to fill a void in our pipeline?

Let's hope not.  I worry about it as I have been hearing about certain guys being in consideration for the #1 overall pick who shouldn't be.  One example is Vance Honeycutt.  

Honeycutt is the typical 5-tool teaser.  A guy who looks the part of being a top prospect. He fills out his uniform well, exudes athleticism and has produced in college, hitting 25 HR and stealing 29 bases as a freshman.  However, he strikes out a lot and, when he aims more for contact as he did last season, his production drops.  The comp I have heard for him is Drew Stubbs. 

The Guardians need to be really careful as there will be half-a-dozen guys like Honeycutt available at 1-1, many of who will have really good springs this year making them look more valuable than they have been projected to be based on the aggregate of their performance/scouting over the past 2-3 years.  

If you are thirsty, or hungry in the hot desert you can convince yourself that any mirage is an oasis or a diner. The key for the Guardians is to fight the urge to backfill a position, or more (counting picks in later rounds) with this draft.   They have already screwed up the last two drafts picking slap hitters, pitchability pitchers who got hurt.   They should not try to erase those failures by going for brass ring picks like Honeycutt.  

The chances they will end up with Drew Stubbs part deux are just too great to take when you have the #1 overall pick in the draft, even if it is in a weak draft class.  Take what you can get and then hope your development system can take the weak prospects from the last 2 drafts and turn them into the players the Guardians' draft gurus thought the organization could.

Doubling down on stupidity is not a great way to go and going for a brass ring pick at 1-1 this year just seems like a stupid and very, very risky approach for an organization that has had two really bad drafts in a row.

Let's not let the sins of the father cause the son to do something that is reckless and possibly even more damaging than what has happened in this organization recently.   Just draft the best guy available and hope the FO can find a way to turn our excess into talent to fill those holes they created.

Anything else is foolhardy...which makes me worry, given our recent drafts.