If you read part 7, you know the drill. In this post we will be looking at pitchers drafted in the last 10 drafts (2014-2023) in the first 10 picks of the draft. So, let's dive in:
NOTE: High school players are in bold.
2014 - Brady Aiken (1), Tyler Kolek (2), Carlos Rodon (3), Aaron Nola (7), Kyle Freeland (8), Jeff Hoffman (9)
2015 - Dillon Tate (4), Tyler Jay (5), Carson Fulmer (8)
2016 - Ian Anderson (3), Riley Pint (4), AJ Puk (6), Braxton Garrett (7), Cal Quantrill (8), Matt Manning (9)
2017 - Hunter Greene (2), MacKenzie Gore (3), Brendan McKay (4), Kyle Wright (5)
2018 - Casey Mize (1), Ryan Weathers (7), Carter Stewart (8)
2019 - Nick Lodolo (9)
2020 - Max Meyer (3), Asa Lacy (4), Emerson Hancock (6), Reid Detmers (10)
2021 - Jack Leiter (2), Jackson Jobe (3), Frank Mozzicato (7), Sam Bachman (8), Kumar Rocker (9)
2022 - Kumar Rocker (3), Cade Horton (7)
2023 - Paul Skenes (1), Rhett Lowder (7), Chase Dollander (9), Noble Meyer (10)
SUMMARY
In the past 10 Drafts only 3 pitchers (Brady Aiken, Casey Mize, Paul Skenes) have gone #1 overall. 38% of picks in the first 10 picks of the last 10 drafts have been pitchers with only 13 being HS pitchers and 25 being college pitchers. Of those 38, 12 drafted within the first 3 picks of a draft, 8 in slots 4-6 and 18 were selected in slots 7-10.
Nothing here would say that the Guardians should avoid picking a college pitcher 1-1. As 70% of the 1-1 picks in past 10 drafts have been position players and it could have easily been 80% if Crews, the consensus #1 prospect, had gone 1-1 instead of 1-2 last year, the trend would say that the Guardians should go position player in the 1st round unless a college pitcher just blows away the other 1-1 candidates in terms of spring performance combined with the scouting of those players over the previous 2 years.
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