2024 Draft - Part 6 - An Early Look Beyond 1-1 - Mock Draft 1.0 for Rounds 1-10

 OK, all the focus, understandably, for the Guardians 2024 draft is on the team's first EVER #1 overall pick.  I get it.  Lots of reasons to focus on that one.  

But let's be honest, with the #10 slot in each round and a high Comp A pick this year, they should be able to put together the best quality draft in rounds 1-10 they have ever had.

I will preface this post by saying that I am absolutely the worst at predicting how the draft will go.  Last year I was sure that Myles Naylor would easily be there for their second round pick (#58) or even their competitive balance pick (#62) and he wasn't. going 39th to the A's.   I could point to many more examples over the years where I thought a guy was certain to be available in a certain point, but he was gone long before that slot.   So, buyer beware in reading the rest of this post!

Let's first look at where the Guardians pick with their 1st 11 picks (rounds 1-10) in 2024.  Note that some of the numbers may change slightly depending on where remaining QO FAs sign.  

Comp Balance A pick: 36

2nd round: 48

3rd round: 85 

4th round: 115

5th round: 149 

6th round: 179

7th round: 209

8th round: 239

9th round: 269

10th round: 299

So the Guardians will have 11 picks within the top 300 of the draft.  

Let's now look at who might be our picks in each round.  Again, this is just my mock draft 1.0 and we have already established how bad I am at mock drafts because guys I think have a particular value are always valued higher than where I see them ranked in various internet rankings.  Nonetheless, here is my first mock draft of 2024:

1: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (#2 by MLB Pipeline)

36: Gage Jump, LHP, Louisiana St. (#46 by MLB Pipeline)

48: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (#50 MLB Pipeline)

85:  James Tibbs, OF, Florida St. (#81 MLB Pipeline)

115: Tyler Head, OF, HS (#42 Prospect Live HS prospect)

149: Datin Horn, RHP, Coastal Carolina (#123 Prospects Live college prospect)

179. Daalen Adderly, IF/OF, Loyola Marymount (college Sr, not ranked)

209. Ryan Campos, C, Arizona St. (#145 college prospect, Future Star Series)

239. Andrew Armstrong, RHRP, Florida State (college Sr, not ranked) or Drew Dowd, RHRP, Stanford (college Sr., not ranked)

269: Drew Graham, LHP, HS (#39, Prospects Live HS prospect, not listed in MLB Pipeline top 100)

299: Trey Gregory-Alford, RHP, HS (#87 MLB Pipeline, hoping, like Zibin last year, he drops to this spot)

Again, temper this with my history of guys that I like being drafted a lot higher than where they are ranked in the various rankings that exist out there.  But I think at least I am in the ballpark.

NOTES: 

• If Kevin Bazzell, C, Texas Tech, is available at 48, I draft him over Amick.  Bazzell is one of those guys ranked anywhere from the mid-40s to 85 or so but someone I think could easily slip into the top 25.  If we draft Bazzell that likely changes my thinking on Campos in the 7th round and I go for Kolby Branch, 2B, Georgia or Brady Day, 2B, Kansas State, both of whom are good bat-to-ball professional college hitters with Branch likely being more pricey as he is a very old (22) draft-eligible sophomore and we saw last year how Alex Mooney was able to rob us using that leverage in 2023.
• I am saving money on Adderly, who I like as an undervalued college senior  (I comp him to Corey Wimberly who I liked in the 2005 draft) and Armstrong (or Dowd) who I like college senior signings who have a good relief stats for quality college programs.  If one of those pitchers is still available on the 3rd day I pick them, starting in the 12th round.
• Graham and Gregory-Alford are guys I like but they really serve as placeholders for a blueprint that the Guardians in 2022 with Zibin and Humphries.  That is, getting quality HS pitchers who have dropped and overspending on them because you have money left over.  This blueprint may even be more doable in 2024 with the money they likely will save at 1-1 and there are always HS pitchers who think they are worth more than their draft slot and are not afraid to go to college to prove it.  My research on the last few drafts showed me that these HS pitchers normally sit in the 35-110 spots in ranking before the draft.
• Head in the 4th is the same blueprint the Guardians used with Jake Fox in 2021, grabbing a HS OFer in the midst of a bunch of college players.
• As far as rounds 11-20, I will wait until closer to the draft to give you my feelings about possible 3rd day draftees.  I think, if we are able to follow a blueprint similar to what is above, we will have money to spend on HS and college flyers.  In 2023 we lost the flexibility to sign HS pitchers Heuer and Marohn because we ran out of money.  I see us using the same philosophy in 2024, except that we should have the money to pull it off this time, maybe even adding 1-2 more of these flyers as I am hoping that we will go over budget again, maxing out at 4.99% above our allotted draft budget (thus avoiding losing a future 1st round pick).  Note, however, that my research has told me that the only true prospects available as flyers after the 10th round will be HS pitchers so any money spent on these guys will stand a high risk of going into a black hole as later round HS pitchers are one of the most risky groups of crashing and burning long before reaching the majors.  However, like with Heuer and Marohn, the more the merrier in the minors as Zibin, Humphries, Keegan Zinn and Jacob Bresnahan, the latter two from 2023, tell you.