The race for who will be selected 1-1 in 2024 has officially begun.
First, my disclaimer. I give less weight to what a guy has done more recently than most people do. For both college and HS players, between playing for their school and all the summer ball and showcase circuit looks that scouts have, they have a good book on all players. In my opinion guys should fall MUCH more than they should rise based on the small sample size of their 2024 seasons.
Still, we are talking 1-1 here so nuance between similar guys DOES matter and, in situations where guys at the very top do look meh in their 2024 play, a guy MIGHT, if all the stars align, sneak into the #1 slot if every other reasonable option falls on his face for some reason (performance, off-field stuff, injury).
So let's dive in, looking at how guys are doing:
TOP 6
1. JJ Wetherholt - He was easing into his college season vs. Stetson (4-13, 3 SB) while playing SS. However, he ended that weekend yesterday when he injured his hamstring. Any injury in your draft year is significant so this is something to watch.
2. Nick Kurtz - I did a little more of deeper dive into Kurtz's weekend than I did with any other player. In his first 3 games he went 4-12 with 1 HR, 1 BB and 1 K, while easing into his season. Nothing spectacular, just solid. In the deeper dive I found that he averaged 3 pitches per AB, explaining having only 1 walk. Of the 52 pitches he saw he only swung and missed 4 times, had 9 called strikes, 19 balls and 9 fouls. When he put the ball in play, besides his hits, he hit 4 FO to LF (and one single), 3 FO to CF (2 advanced runners) and 0 FO to RF (2 singles, 1 HR). He did not hit a groundball at all, none for outs and none of his hits were ground balls. So, an inordinate number of balls hit to LF, trying to lift every ball but showing excellent bat-to-ball skills for a power hitter. Not a great weekend. Nothing to write home about, just him not moving down in my thinking...but nothing to solidify him being 1-1 over his competitors.
3. Travis Bazzana - He had the best weekend of any of the hitters truly competing for selection at 1-1. The videos of his pre-season work on his own showed that he likely hit the ground running, maybe more than anyone else at the top of this draft class. The results were indisputable: co-national player of the week, 9-16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 3 BB, 4 K. The best first weekend of any of the players in the conversation for 1-1. I will say this, though. On the video of his triple he didn't exactly appear like he was burning it around the bases so I am wondering about his 60 speed grade, at least a little right now. Has he thickened up at all, sacrificing speed for more power? Time will tell.
4. Charlie Condon - His first weekend he went 7-11 with 3 doubles, 2 BB and 1 K, against weak competition, basically holding serve for his lofty position in this draft class.
5. Joc Caglianone - He went 2-4 with a walk while playing 1B in the only game of a 3 game series against St. John that was NOT rained out.
6. Vance Honeycutt - The only potential 5-tool player at the top of this draft, Honeycutt came in with questions about his hit tool and contact rate. He has never hit over .300 in college and has a problem with contact, striking out a lot. In his first weekend over 15 plate appearances (12 ABs). Honeycutt showed his penchant for hitting for power (2 HRs), but also went 2-12 with 4 Ks, It's early, but nothing in this first weekend causes him to move up, IMHO.
THE RISER(S) OF THE WEEK
Risers, to me, are guys who actually have a chance to get to 1-1. Yeah, guys have great weekends and great seasons but only certain guys have the stuff to make them worth the gamble of being selected at 1-1. It's early in the season so we only have one riser this week:
Chase Burns - Burns came into the season with hype regarding his fastball (regularly hits 100 mph) and slider (true swing-and-miss monster) and acceptance of his control as being at least average, but questions about the straightness of his FB (23 HR in 152 college innings), his command and his lack of a 3rd pitch. If he doesn't show that his 3rd pitch is at least average right now, he could be destined for the bullpen...and you don't want to draft a guy 1-1 if you are hoping for significant improvement to justify that lofty selection.
In his first start of the year, he did exactly what you would expect against lesser competition from a cold-weather state: he dominated. Showing his good FB velocity, wipeout slider and control, he ended up keeping himself at least in the discussion for 1-1 with a 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB and 10 K game. He threw 88 pitches, a little high for a 1st start. Two of the 3 singles he gave up were in his last inning. For the game, not counting the balls in play, he had 23 swinging strikes, 17 called strikes, 10 foul balls and threw an alarming 30 balls, meaning he threw close to 40% balls. Rust and nerves in his first time out? Probably. But he had at least good control last year and this did not look like good control although he didn't allow hard contact, either.
So, Burns kept himself in the conversation at 1-1 but it doesn't appear that he enhanced his status, either.
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