OK, we are now halfway through April. College teams have been playing games for 2 months now and the usual suspects are now over 150 plate appearances or approaching 50 IP.
I am thinking that it is almost 100% certain that we are going with a college bat at 1-1. Sowith that in mind, here are how the players at the top of my draft board are doing.
Travis Bazzana - Travis just continues to steam along. There have been a few cracks in the armor, a 2-error game, a game where he got picked off TWICE, only 8 stolen bases so far after 36 last year. But, for the most part, the numbers seem to indicate that he has been solid on both sides of the ball. In fact, if he was up to 20 steals right now (instead of 8), I don't know that I would be listening to discussion of anyone else, especially since Bazzana is an up-the-middle player and still has more HRs than Ks. He is a little older than most college players in the draft. He ended the weekend with a 1-4, BB, 2K game and didn't deliver in the 8th when his team was trying to come back, so there's that (more to come on that in an upcoming article). Through games of April 14th here are his 'raw' numbers (i.e., devoid of analytics)
AB: 123 ABs
R: 56
H: 56
RBI: 45
2B: 8
3B: 4
HR: 18
SB/CS: 8/4
BB/K: 45/15
AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .455/.610/1.024/1.634
Charlie Condon - Condon set such a torrid, video-game-like pace for himself early in the season there is no way he could keep it up, right? Well, he's been pretty darn close as he is still cranking out HRs and still is keeping his Ks down, meaning his HR/K rate is still video-game-like. He has played all over the field including starting mid-week games in CF and 3B but the word on the street is that that is all window dressing and he will end up as a 1B/DH/LF option only in the pros. We'll see about that in a few years! Still, with that spectre hanging over his head and with his numbers starting to come down, he looks like a solid #2 in the prospect list because, frankly, he hasn't been hurt, he's been productive and we know he will not be limited to 1B like Kurtz will be. In any case, you can't argue with the bat, at least at the college level. And he hits and throws RHed which, as it turns out, is good if you are an outfielder but not so good if you are a first baseman. The only other blemish on his resume is that he is a draft-eligible sophomore meaning he likely won't come cheap if you were thinking the Guardians were going to bank some money from their 1-1 pick to use on later picks.
AB: 137
R: 51
H: 66
RBI: 52
2B: 12
3B: 1
HR: 24
SB/CS: 2/1
BB/K: 32/25
AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .424/.526/1.109/1.697
JJ Wetherholt - I have mixed emotions for this kid. On one hand the hamstring injury, following one last summer, probably eliminates him from spots 1-1 or 1-2, and maybe even through 1-5 so this will cost him money. At the same time there is no way teams will be so off him that he will last to pick 10, meaning he still will get paid. His hit tool and his middle of the field potential is just so great that he would be an incredible bargain starting at 1-6 and there would have to be a slew of guys who go ballistic down the stretch for him to fall even to 1-9. So don't really focus on the numbers below. Look at his numbers from last year and dream on those. That is what his drafting team will see as they can possibly get a 1-1 talent for about $4 million less than what he was worth in January.
AB: 41
R: 12
H:13
RBI: 8
2B: 3
3B: 0
HR: 2
SB/CS: 3/0
BB/K: 10/6
AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .317/.467/.624/1.091
Nick Kurtz - Kurtz was the most vulnerable college player (vulnerable to drop if things went wrong for him) simply because he is limited to first base. He could go .295/25 HR/.850 OPS as a LFer but those numbers, while very good, just don't ring true for a 1-1 first baseman. He is going nuclear right now so we will see if teams overlook his early season slump and shoulder injury, the latter of which is MUCH more concerning to me as he can and probably would play through this in college as his draft value hangs in the balance, which might cause more damage and cause him to miss pro time next year. But that nuclear HR binge he is on is bringing him back to top 5 discussions, especially for teams who are rebuilding and would be happy with that production as a building block to their team of the future, no matter if it is from LF or 1B, especially with how good he is said to be at 1B.
AB: 91
R: 38
H: 33
RBI: 38
2B: 5
3B: 1
HR: 16
SB/CS: 1/0
BB/K: 39/19
AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .333/,505/.744/1.414
Braden Montgomery - Early in the year people were talking about Vance Honeycutt as the colleg 5-tool guy and people are even talking about HSer Konnor Griffin (see below), developing into that guy as he matures. But now with the binge Montgomery is on people are talking about him being THAT guy.
While I don't buy it, that is the talk and, with his numbers and the potential for top of the shelf athleticism, he is in the conversation for top 5, to be sure, and if some scouting director wants to roll the dice, even as early as 1-2 because the other guys in the top 10 all have warts they are unlikely to lose and Montgomery has no obvious detriments that can't be polished, at least on paper.
AB: 137
R: 45
H: 52
RBI: 58
2B: 11
3B: 1
HR: 19
SB/CS: 4/2
BB/K: 33/28
AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: ./.891/1.399380/.509
SUMMARY
So Bazzana is still at the top of the leader board for me. He is not nearly the sexiest guy in this group but he just checks all the boxes for me. People think you have to get a franchise talent at 1-1 but, in this class, I think you have to get a perennial all-star and I think Bazzana is that guy with an upside of Jose Ramirez and a downside of Jason Kipnis. Reasonable people can disagree and some people are thinking Condon, more and more are thinking Montgomery and some are thinking Kurtz or Wetherholt if we can get a discount. Finally, there are those people who dream on Konnor Griffin being a franchise talent, and don't kid yourself, there are a lot of people who think that we should go for a franchise talent, no matter if it is a risky pick.
I am pretty sure it's going down to the wire for the Guardians choice and I am also relatively sure that money will have something to do with it. I can't help but notice that the Guardians are giving away most of their remaining international bonus pool (ca. $400,000, I think). Maybe the goal is, now that we have 1-1, to save a little money for the draft.
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