Current State of the Cleveland Guardians - 4/22/2024 Edition

 OK, it's April 22nd and the Guardians are 16-6.  That means they only have to go 46-94 the rest of the way to beat my pre-season prediction of a 61-101 finish.  

With that in mind, let's take stock of where this team and its players currently are and where we can expect everyone and everything to go if the season progresses to its natural conclusion.

Team

• Almost everything has gone right so far this season.   Teams we are playing are playing their worst against us.  Important injuries on other teams have seemed to coincide with when we play them. Our relievers, down to the last man, have been really good, some even great, despite some analytics showing that these guys are unlikely to maintain their current level of production.  Tyler Freeman has been impossibly better on defense in CF than anyone could have imagined.  Even with the defensive lapses by Rocchio and Arias, baserunning mistakes galore, no real contribution from Laureano, a poor start from Ramirez and the injuries to Bieber, Williams, Hentges, and no totally unexpected offensive contributions for any individual, they are still 16-6.  It would not surprise me if we only had to go 74-66 the rest of the way to qualify for the playoffs (90-72 overall).
• Austin Hedges may be having an unbelievably unmeasurable, intangible positive influence on this team just like he did the Pirates last year.  Speaking of the 2023 Pirates...
• Realizing that last year the Pirates were 20-8 to open the season, it should be noted that the Guardians still would have to go 4-2 in the next two series to reach that mark and remember that the 2023 Pirates ended up 76-86 after their hot start including losing 11 of 12 after their fast start. So the key is to avoid long losing streaks, minimize bad losses, stay healthy and win the series against teams who are struggling at the time we play them.
• After playing the Red Sox in Cleveland, their schedule is:
• @ Atlanta (3)
• @ Houston (3)
• Angels (3)
• Tigers (3)
• @ White Sox (4)
• If the Guardians can win 2 of 3 from Boston, 1 of 3 in Atlanta and in Houston and win 2 of 3 against Detroit and split 4 games with the White Sox they will have gone 8-8 on this part of their schedule meaning that their overall record would be 24-14.   That would be a great outcome, in my opinion, especially winning 2 of 3 from the Tigers, who will no doubt challenge for the AL Central title this season.   Obviously, all those series are big, but I think the biggest is the Boston series.  If we can show that our 3 out of 4 in Boston was not a fluke with a Boston team that is playing very well we could use that as a springboard to have more success in this 16 game stretch...or...
• The Guardians could lose all 3 to Boston, get swept in Atlanta and lose the first 2 to Houston for an 8 game losing streak before winning the last one in Houston.  They could then lose 3 out of 3 to Detroit before splitting with the White Sox to end up 4-12 on this stretch on the way to a 2023 Pirates-like collapse. 
• While Kwan, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez are carrying the team right now, David Fry being David Fry and Gavin Williams and Sam Hentges on the mend, there is still room for improvement for other players with much of that being expected or, at least, hoped for.  

Individual Player Improvement

• Jose Ramirez - For this team to be where they are with his struggles this year is amazing.  Even if he returns to his substandard (for him) 2023 levels, this offense gets a big surge from him.
• Tyler Freeman - His offense should get a lot better than it is now.   This team will need that when the top 3 above cool off.
• Brayan Rocchio - I really think his offense will improve but his defense is just pathetic in every aspect.  He needs to improve that, too, in order for any uptick in offense to help the team, overall.
• Gabriel Arias - He has trended up recently but really needs to get to a .265 BA, 320 OBP, 420 SLG to be a real asset to this team the rest of the way.
• Will Brennan - Like Rocchio, he needs to improve on both sides of the ball and, so far, that improvement over 2023 is not in evidence.  I don't know what switch has to go on but his offense and even his defense have to be better.
• Bo Naylor - The guy, after Ramirez, on this list whose improvement is most likely to occur, all he has to do is keep producing.  If his 2023 mirrors his 2024, by the beginning of May he should be raking.  His defense is already much impvoed from last year.

The Wildcards

• Ramon Laureano - As I HATED this signing in the off-season it is hard for me to think that any improvement will occur.  But I hope that it does but, if not, hope that the Guardians do a Mike Zunino and dump Laureano before June 1st and bring up some youngster who will provide the team with an unexpected spark.  Laureano simply has not helped this team although his veteran presence would imply that he should.  Besides, dumping a non-performing Laureano would help this fanbase consider that no nepotism is taking place, vis-a-vis his prior relationship to Vogt.
• Estevan Florial - He has shown glimpses of what he could be but is still K-ing at an unacceptable rate..and on balls in the zone. His current level of production would suffice if he would just get his BA up to .260 with a corresponding drop in K rate.
• Austin Hedges - Everything else (defensively and bench/clubhouse-wise) is there, but could you PLEASE get your BA up to .200 and you OBP up to .250?  PLEASE!
• Starting Pitching - The current guys, plus Williams, just need to keep on keeping on.  They have kept us in  every game we have played and if we can just keep that going, that will be acceptable.
• Bullpen - There is enough experience and, for the younger guys, talent there to make it continue to work.  Again, keep on keeping on.
• Minor League Prospects - This is a key to a big uplift in performance on the Guardians if guys continue to underperform or get hurt.  I can't impress enough that it is performance by these guys that will likely make the difference in whether we make the playoffs and, especially, if we do, whether we are going anywhere IN the playoffs.  In the best world, we could make the World Series if a bunch of these prospects 'go off'.   If Manzardo can be here and perform well at DH that would help.  If 2-3 of Brito, DeLauter, Martinez, Tena, Rodriguez, Noel and/or some unexpected wildcard (e.g., Schneeman) can have breakout rookie year performances that make up for deficits in parts of the lineup or bench that could be enough to sustain our offensive production.   If bullpen help like Walters, Aleman, Enright, Gose and Burns can be quality and better than what we have now when called up, that would be really useful.  If Curry can be a success as a starter that would be great with any success we get from Dion and, later this year, Cantillo, being unexpected but welcomed plusses, all 3 being depth starters that we KNOW will be needed, as they are every year.  Again, I can't impress enough how important some performances like this are and you only have to go as far as Evan Carter in Texas last year to see how valuable that type of performance in the 2nd half of a season can be.

So things are looking good right now.  Is this all based on a house of cards?  Maybe but if the FO makes the appropriate moves in bringing guys up and sending guys down, you could be looking at annother 2022-like magical season...but with the minor leaguers providing the icing on the cake that propels us further into the playoffs.