View From (Almost) The Top - The Guardians As They Approach The Home Opener

 55-98.  That's all the Guardians have to go the rest of the year to beat my prediction of 61-101. 

On the very top two atomic layers of the surface, the Guardians' start is very encouraging.  

• Vogt's managing has been REALLY good.  
• The starting pitching has given us just what we need to be successful, a chance to win every game
• Our bullpen, with the exception of Barlow and Morgan, has been outstanding and these 2 have good enough track records to be hopeful that they will turn things around.
• Our hitting, like our startng pitching, has given us just enough to be successful.
• Heck, even our two losses have been by only 1 run and both after great comebacks by the offense.
• While there have been more misplays (on the basepaths and on defense) than a successful ML team should have, we have weathered those gaffes which, hopefully, will be fixed in short order as, like I said, ML teams should not have these sorts of bonehead defense and baserunning blunders, no matter what the record.

Note that this is exactly the same MO that the 2022 played under: beating the odds and putting up outstanding performance after outstanding performance against all odds and with more than the average percentage of players having surprisingly good seasons...and without a lot of physical breakdowns.

Also note that this year the Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-2.  This follows 2023 when they started 7-3 and then 20-8 but ended up 56-78 in the last portion of the season for a final 76-86, identical to the final record the Guardians posted in 2023.

There it is!  He successfully snatches negativity from the jaws of optimism!

Given how the Guardiansverse has reacted to Shane Bieber's TJ surgery announcement, you would guess that many Guardians fans either felt the optimism of the team's (and Bieber's) early-season performance or simply were playing ostrich and forgetting about this team's inherent deficits and questionable off-season moves and non-moves that were going to catch up to them at some point.

So, for me, nothing has changed.  There are reasons both for optimism and pessimism.  

So let's check with the angel on my right shoulder who is optimistic for the following reasons:

• We are 7-2 and Jose has not kicked it into gear yet.  There should be some uptick in our offense from him.
• Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez are looking like improved versions of their 2022 seasons, exactly what we would have liked to see in 2023.  This uptick in offense looks like it will be there long term.
• Tyler Freeman looks like an offensive upgrade to Myles Straw and appears to be very playable in CF.
• Although he has started slowly, Bo Naylor will clearly be an offensive upgrade to what we had at the beginning of last year.
• The bullpen has been incredible and there are more prospects in the minors who showed out at ST and in the beginning of the year in the minors plus getting Curry back could be crucial as we may need him as an opener.
• Hedges is as advertised.  He is a positive clubhouse presence and a good mentor for Bo Naylor.  Still, with Bieber out for the season, how is he going to get playing time with Naylor and Fry being able to fill the primary catcher spots?
• We have Manzardo and DeLauter in the minors for an infusion of offense and youthful enthusiasm just when we need it during the season....right?

Now, on my other shoulder the devil is telling me:

• The Guardians painted themselves into a corner by trading Civale last July and Quantrill in the off-season.  It meant they were counting on Bieber and McKenzie to come back just to give us 5 good starters.  That plan has already gone in the toilet as Beiber is out for the season and the rotation plan is looking even more shaky as McKenzie looked highly questionable in his first start of the year.  Even with Carrasco giving us good opener-type performances we are still short on starters.  And there isn't anyone coming up from the minors.  Cantillo is hurt for 2 months and wouldn't have been ready during that 2 month stretch anyway as he still has significant polishing to do.  Dion is at least a year away and there is really no other prospect at AAA now that Espino is down for the year.  The FO put us in a situation that it had to be Bieber, McKenzie, Bibee, Williams and Allen. No ML-ready minor leaguers this year and except for Carrasco, no one who is capable of carrying the water bottle for any of the top 5 was brought in as a free agent this off-season.  The FO simply chose to go with that 5 and it already isn't working.
• Our SS situation is highly questionable.  Although Rocchio is hitting, his fielding doesn't look like it plays as a ML SS.  Arias is quickly becoming this year's forgotten man as even when he does play he doesn't look motivated.  It would be great to send him to AAA for a reality check but our AAA middle infielders are either hurt (Martinez) or not playing like they are ready (Tena, Brito).  If we didn't have a roster crunch and if he didn't hit left-handed, I might be tempted to bring up Schneeman to be the utility guy as at least I know he would show the hunger to stay in the majors.
• Our experiment with Florial appears to be going down the toilet, too.  He is showing what he has shown with the Yankees in his brief trials with them.  He may be a major leaguer for some team, some year.  It is just getting more and more obvious that it won't be for the Guardians this year.
• Laureano and his $5.1 million contract is looking as bad as I thought it would.  He is a journeyman player and those guys are worth $1-2 million in the current market.
• No way both the Twins and Tigers tank it bad enough for us to make the playoffs.  Both will do enough damage against the Guardians and enough damage against common opponents that the Guardians' weaknesses are likely to cause them to take enough losses to not even win in the weakest division in baseball.

This is what the angel and the devil on my shoulders are telling me.  The bright-eyed 10-year old optimist in me says that we can pull this off, just like in 2022.  But the jaded senior citizen in me says that we were in trouble before Bieber went down and the hole we had to climb out of got much deeper.  But I figured that all in with my 61-101 pre-season prediction.    Much has changed in the positive direction with our early-season success but enough has gone wrong already, especially with the pitching, that I think it balances all the positive out.  

People are saying Bieber's injury is the last nail in the coffin of 2024 for the Guardians.  While that might be true, those of you who read my blog know that I have said for a long time that 2024 was being set up by the FO as a prep year for 2025 and that fans should be in for the rough ride that Dolan hinted at for 2022.  

You also know that I have said not to trade Bieber this past off-season (given how few legitimate starting pitchers we had) unless you got overwhelmed, which must not have happened, meaning he was worth more to us than in trade.  The fact that he is now worth nothing in trade doesn't change the trajectory of 2024 nor, truth be told, 2025, as the return would likely have been decent but not enough to move the needle in 2025.

So my advice to Guardians fans is the same advice I would have given to 2023 Pirates fans.  Enjoy the ride and realize you are retooling for future seasons.  

When opening day comes tomorrow realize that this season, no matter what the record, is not a failure unless we stop developing our young players and wasting prospects or money trying in a futile attempt to bring in veterans to compete with teams like the Dodgers.  That WOULD be a failure and a waste of resources (see Nolan Jones, Will Benson and Junior Caminero).  

So, fellow fans, enjoy the ride and ride this winning streak as long as you can and, after that, don't whine that we didn't trade Bieber, don't whine that the FO didn't overpay FAs or sign a couple of expensive guys who might have gotten us to the wildcard round in the playoffs, but no further.  Look at the big picture and plan to get your season tickets in 2025.  Now THAT is going to be an exciting team and this year, like 1993 &1994 before 1995, is just the prelude to the opening act of the next wave of Guardians winning seasons.

Go Guards!  As the case when I was a kid, if they win I am happy.  If they lose I am happy I got to root for them.  The only difference now is that I get to watch every game on MLB Network and don't have a bedtime that causes me to have to sneak my transistor radio under my pillow to listen to the team I love.