A hard look at the pitching staff

 Pitchers get hurt.   They come in hurt and don't tell anyone hoping it is just soreness.   They tweak something the first week of spring traning.   They tweak something during the first, bone-chillng month of the season.   Then there is the wear and tear and old injuries flaring up and guys being overextended that leads to later season injuries.   Pitchers get hurt.

The age-old expression is that you can never have too much pitching.  You have to have a next man up mentality but in order to do that you have to have a next man to be up.

The Indians don't have enough of those next men, especially in the bullpen.  Let's examine that.  

Most teams have 20+ pitchers on their 40-man roster.  The Indians have 16 not counting Carlos Vargas who is on the 60-day DL.   Three of those guys (Konnor PIlkington, Cody Morris and Tobias Myers) have zero big league experience.  That leaves 13 guys and most big league pitching staffs carry at least 13 pitchers (5 starters and 8 relievers) and this year if they expand the opening day rosters to 30, you are likely looking at 15 pitchers.

Did I mention that pitchers get hurt?  And like I said, we don't have enough men up.

Even with the next men up that we do have, not all of these guys are relievers.   Eli Morgan is a starter and, as a reliever, is at best a mopup man.  Morris, Pilkington and Myers....who knows.

Plus we have guys coming back from injuries (Sanlin, Beiber), guys who still need to prove themselves (Allen, Hentges, Gose, Karinchak) and, of course, the minor league 3.

Looking at our non-roster invitees, where the Indians normally find 1-2 relievers every year, the pickings are slim.  Any major league pitching staff that has Alex Young on it is a pitching staff short on talent.  Ditto for Enyel De Los Santos, Ian Gibaut and Jake Newell.  These guys are all minor league filler.   None of them is the next Blake Parker let alone a replacement for Brian Shaw.  If the Indians are thinking about going with youth they can look to Robert Broom, Justn Garza or Nick Mikolajchak or one or more of the aforementioned minor league starters (Tully, Scott, McCarty, Battenfield),  Unfortunately none of these guys, to me, are worth removing a guy for our 40-man, which is the next issue.

Plus, when you think about how stacked our 40 man roster is with true major leagues and uber prospects, the only way you increase the pitchers is to jettison guys like Logan Allen (the elder), Oscar Mercado,

Hey, I am not talking about quality here, which is another issue entirely.  I am talking about quantity that has any resemblance to quality.   It doesn't take a baseball savant to see that this pitching staff is in real trouble and the longer we wait to sign somnebody, the less time that veteran has to get ready and the greater the chance that THEY will get hurt and then clog a roster spot and not be helpfu.

The only way this doesn't go south on us is to complete a megatrade with some team (our prospects for their veterans) where we also get 1-2 relievers thrown in from the other team.   

I still think we pull off a deal where we trade multiple prospects on our 40-man for one star veteran (cough, Juan Soto, cough).  Whether we get a relief pitcher back in that trade or sign one or more after the trade  don't know.  

What I do know is that you need pitchers to never have too many pitchers.   Even without injuries the Indians don't have enough right now.  

Life imitates art

 I know someone, somewhere has to have made this connection.  But wasn't today eerily similar to the movie "Draft Day"?   Aside from the fact that Andrew Berry bears no resemblance to Kevin Costner, today was really weird.

I don't know what to think of this move more than what Terry Pluto said: desperation.

Well, all that's left is to trade Mayfield to a team that is looking for an adolescent to be their quarterback.  

And to find a real head coach because my guess is, if you give Stefanski enough weapons he will probably hurt himself with one of them.

Somewhere, Odell Beckham Sr. is laughing his rear end off.

I couldn't wait for the Guardians game today.  I missed baseball.  In a regular exhibition opener you see the starters go an at bat or two and then a bunch of guys who will never play n the majors come in for the last 5 innings or so.   Today we were treated with appearances from most of the prospects we protected on the 40 man roster this year and, for me, it certainly made the later innings more interesting.

If you read the tea leaves with everyone in management for the Guardians imaking such a big deal about all the young guys have chances and need to step up that it makes you KNOW there is going to be a trade, doesn't it.   Let's hope Chernoff doesn't pull and Andrew Berry.   Anything south of Juan Soto/Stephen Strasburg will likely mean a Cleveland team has really overpad again this month.

Good game by Ohio State today.   Good to see them make it to second round.   Really enjoyed the St. Peter's game against Kentucky yesterday.  Glad the Cleveland State women made it to 20 official, non-forfeit wins.   They should have been in the women's NIT.  Love watching this team play.

Can't wait for baseball on Saturday and for the minor league season to start.

Go Lady Buckeyes, lady Vikings.  Let's have another day on Saturday.

Where for art thou, free agents...and trade buddies?

 OK, we have a short spring training and we are not making much headway.

Maybe the smart money lets guys play a few games or waits until the end of ST to see if players are healthy.   I can buy that...I guess, if we are gong to make a trade.

So, as free agent hitter options fly off the board I get it.   We are going to have to make a trade for an outfielder.  Amed Rosario is a good hitter for a SS but would be a below average hitter for a left fielder, a position where you normally want a power hitter.  Josh Naylor, on his best day, is not a right fielder and he is still recovering from last year's bad njury.  I am not sure, at this point, if Naylor is more than a pinch hitter/5th outfielder at this point.  On the other hand, Bradley Zmmer is the perfect 4th outfielder, in my opinion, but nothing more.   So as it doesn't appear that we will even sign a mediocre FA outfielder we have to make a trade and that trade should be for a powerhitting right fielder.

Enter Juan Soto.

But even if that trade can be made without totally gutting our farm system (the Matt Olson trade is NOT a good sign) we still need to do something about the bullpen.

I know we use the "C" word a lot with this team, and I don't mean Cleveland.  But when you see relief pitcher, good and mediocre, healthy and injured, go off the board with one year deals and minor league invites, you have to ask yourself if it is status quo or worse this year with the Guardians bullpen.  

Again, conventional wisdom says that one inning relievers may be a luxury during the early season and we have enough of them anyway.   So maybe we are looking for tandem guys and Eli Morgan, Logan Allen and Cody Morris may be exactly what we need or throwing guys out there like Konnor Pilkington or even Payton Battenfield.   But, at some point, we are going to back to playing normal baseball and we need two veteran righties and a veteran lefty, none of whom we have in camp right now.  

So, each day we proceed in camp I get more and more nervous that Paul Dolan, Mr C word, is planning to take the revenue sharing money and run or maybe just say "F" it and use that money to extend Ramirez, and Biieber and not to improve this team.  

I hope not but, right now, we could be looking at a very young, very cheap roster.   Not that this would be a problem to me but I can't imagine mentally that a guy like Francona could mentally last the whole season with a team in cheap mode.

So  I hope something big is happening.  I hope it involves Juan Soto and maybe Stephen Strasburg and I hope it doesn't totally gut our farm system.  And I hope we get some quality relievers who won't turn quality starts into gut-wrenching losses.

Take your time Guardians and do it right.  No pressure.  Tick.  Tick.  Tick.

Let's talk baseball - Would you make this trade?

 The A's want to trade first baseman Matt Olson who has two years of control left on him before free agency.   They ask for Tyler Freeman, George Valera, Gavin Williams and Richie Palacios.   Would you make that deal?

So that deal is done (or not) and the Reds come to you with an offer.   They will trade you Jesse Winker (reigning all-star, Strong against righties but weak against lefties) who has 2 years of control and Eugenio Suarez (he of the .198 BA and 31 HRs last year with 3 years and $34 million left on his contract) and they want Gavin Williams, Bradley Zimmer and Eli Morgan.    We would eat all the salaries.  Would you make that deal?

Well, I don't know that I would make the first deal as that is a lot of prospects when I have a guy at that position who then I have to dump, Bobby Bradley.  So think about adding Bradley to that deal above and you have 5 solid ML prospects.  I hold out to make a big free agent splash or trade these guys for Juan Soto and take Stephen Strasburg off their hands and eat his salary, if necessary.  If I could get Soto for the above 4 guys and leave Bradley at 1B.

The second deal I make in a heartbeat.  This is a salary dump and we fill a need without giving up a lot.

No way the Indans couldn't have outbid the Mariners for these guys.  Yes, Suarez may in fact be done, based on his last 2 years.   But who knows.  Winker is what we needed and he would have come cheap in terms of prospects.

Again, more relievers coming off the board today and the Indians do nothing.

They have enough to compete if they add a good power hitting outfielder and a couple of good relievers.

Why are they letting teams just run past them without getting better?

Thoughts for a Sunday

 NON-ROSTER INVITEES

I have said this before and I am saying it again:  The Guardians made a big mistake in not signing more veteran minor league free agents during the early days of the lockout.   There was some information that guys like that would be locked out of spring training, too.   Well, seeing Sandy Leon in spring training shows that this is not true.   Other teams have, all along, been adding these guys.   Generally they are just AAA filler players, a few of whom likely will wind up on your roster at the beginning of the season but many will languish in AAA and even AA for the entire year.

However, this year imagine heading into your pre-season with a month of spring training already under your belt.  These veterans could have a huge impact in the first month of the season when the returning major leaguers are still shaking off the rust.  Whoever plays this signing game right could end up with 2-3 more wins in the first month of the season.

Now, you can argue that the Guardians will not have any roster room for these types of guys but wouldn't it be nice to have about a half dozen ML-ready guys stashed in the minors ready to help in that first month before being DFA'd for established guys a little later in the season?

CBA Negotiations

I am constantly amazed how fans think the Rule 5 draft is a good thing because it gives a couple of guys the ability to steal a spot on a ML roster before they are truly ready to play in the majors.  They haven't done the reaearch to show how neffective this draft is while, at the same time, costing teams a lot of money and angst in which prospects to protect.   Imagine if there was not ML Rule 5 draft.  I am pretty sure the Indians 40-man would look a lot different and a lot of the prospects who were added this winter would likely be in spring training right now.

I think an agreement will be reached soon but I don't think all issues will be hammered out by that time.  I think the 14-team playoff decision will be key and I think that will be finalized soon.  

Spring Training

Lots of videos coming out of spring training.   It will be interesting to see how fast the pitchers the Guardians drafted in 2021 progress. Gavin Williams is supposed to be hitting 100 mph.   Will they develop him slowly as a starter or will they send him to the bullpen?  I hope the Rule 5 is cancelled soon so the Cleveland minor leaguers can exhale and get down to serious work.   I am sure it weighs on some of them about who they will be playing for this year.  

Trades after the lockout

I still see the Indians turning some of that prospect capital into a star player after the lockout ends.   I am still hoping for Juan Soto with us taking on Strasburg's contract to keep the prospect loss down to a minimum.  I just hope we don't overpay with prospects for some average or a little better verteran.  We have the prospect capital.  Make a big splash that helps the team this year.

Free Agen Signings

In typical Indians fashion watch for them to sign Shaw and Parker out of the lockout.   Those guys should be in camp right now as mnor league free agents.  As I said above, just hope we don't overpay for free agents who don't really help that much and chew up our resources.

Basketball

Congrats and good luck to the Cleveland State basketball teams.   As a proud alumnus it is enjoyable to see basketball make a comeback at CSU.  The women looked strong in their last 5 quarters of basketball and the men still have so much potential they haven't tapped this year.   Let's hope this coming week brings NCAA tournament bids to their men's and women's teams.

The Cavs are struggling right now.  I hope they right the ship but, with all their injuries, they could easily crash.  Let's hope they get healthy quickly.

I don't know what to make of the OSU men's team.  They look like they could have an early exit from the Big Ten tournament and maybe get aced out of or have another first round exit from the NCAA tournament.   I know he will be retained for next year to see how his 2022 recruiting class pans out but what we see now might be all that we can expect from Holtman.   Then the OSU administration will have to decide if this is acceptable at a football-frst school or if they want a flashy new guy who can take the program to the next level, at least in terms of NCAA tourney performance. All I know is that this is a team kthat I wouldn't want to meet n the NCAAs because, for one game, this team can play with anyone in the country...if they show up.

So here we are!

 Sprng training and the first two series of the regular season are about to become the latest casualties of baseball greed.  

It's been almost two months since I last posted as, frankly, there hasn't been much to say.  

Here are my thoughts on items I would like to see changed

1.  Draft pick compensation - Teams who sign don't forfeit picks but teams who lose free agents get extra draft picks similar to the Type A, Type B, Type C system used prefiously

2.  Arbitration - Do away with it.  After their first season all players get payed on a metrics-based pay scale.  Avoids service time manipulaton.   

3. Expanded playoffs - good with 12 teams but I think first round matchups should be consist of best-of-5 playoffs with the division winners getting 2 ghost wins and having the first two games in their park.   If the visiting (wildcard) team wins the first games played they are rewarded by having the deciding game at home.  This still ends up, in the worst case, being a 3 game playoff series and is set up so a team with 2 dominant starting pitchers can't steal a series from a stronger overall team.

4. International draft - I am opposed to this.  The system works well now.  

5. Revenue sharing - There should be as much if not more revenue sharing in the new CBA but I have a plan for using that money.   Teams that receive revenue sharing should have strict controls put on how they use that money.

a) 70% of it has to go to extend players currently under their control or sign free agents

b) 15% will be added to the team's draft bonus pool

c) 15% will be added to the team's international signing bonus pool

Now b) and c) could be ways for teams to just pocket the money but I think that teams would be foolish to do that as they can get a larger number of talented players without going over and being penalized for going over their bonus pools

6. Anti-tanking measures - I like MLBPA's proposal here

7. Here are some topics that have not been discussed so far:

• Rule 5 draft - I think this should be eliminated
• Age for minor league free agency:
• Players signed before their 19th birthday become free agents after the season in which they are 24 years old
• Players signed after their 19th birthday become free agents after the season of their 25th birthday

Thoughts for a Monday

•  To Harbaugh at Michigan:  Some people close their eyes, swing as hard as they can, and luck out and get a triple.  But those imposters can't find a way to bring it home.
• Not that Ohio State did that well in its bowl game.   There is a difference between winning an exciting game and playing well.   Ohio State should have crushed Utah.  
• Hopefully Knowles arrival will help Ohio State/s defense.  I will say this, however.   Not every coach can juggle the expectations of an Ohio State football coach, the expectations that this defense will drastically improve based on Knowles' track record and the fact that he recruited ZERO of these players.    I cannot tell you how many times a college coach came into a situation where success was demanded and that coach pushed out or alienated players causing them to leave.   To anyone who thinks Knowles will just come in and magically change the players he has been given to fit his system, think again.    With the open door transfer portal being in place, realize that this situation can get worse before it gets better.  
• It was indicated that the Buckeyes would not be pursuing transfer Elias Ricks partially because their fear that the DB room could start to have defections like the QB room did.   With Lathan Ransom's injury do we think that will change?   This is the problem with trying to stack too many guys in any one class.  If guys feel like competition is being added unfairly they can just leave now.   And I don't blame them.   How many people stay n a job when they have a glass ceiling?
• I don't know of one writer, reporter or fan who is still on board with Baker Mayfield being the Browns quarterback next year if there is a viable alternative.   His performance against Green Bay last week was pathetic.  His comments, those of his wife and his lack of performance speak to him being the runt of the litter of quarterbacks in the NFL and that he is trying to gain respect by screaming into the wind instead of either accepting his limitations, getting better or getting retired.
• Ohio State basketball is like Ohio State football.   They do not appear to be an over-achieving team.   I think they will easily make the tournament but, like last year, stand a good chance to be upset in the first round and don't have the ability to make it to the sweet 16.
• This is an interesting year for Dennis Gates and the Cleveland State Vikings basketball team.  The team to beat in the Horizon League is Oakland.   Maybe Cleveland State's experience ends up helping them win the league tournament but, on paper, Oakland has performed more like the team I though Cleveland State would be than Cleveland State has.
• I finally got a chance to watch Cleveland State's women's team and as a former baller and long-time basketball fan, I don't think the Viking's coach did a good job at all in the game against Youngstown State.   Their stud player Destiny Leo started almost every touch 30 feet from the basket being hounded by a small, tenacious defender.   That's the key, really.   If they had just posted Leo up against this opponent I think she could have scored at will and gotten the girl in foul trouble.  This is an in-game adjustment that a good coach should make and it didn't happen.   Worse, they continued to allow the other team's center to score inside.   Youngstown had one 3-point threat.   It's not hard to guard against a center and one three point shooter.  Yet Cleveland State did neither.

Now, to what this blog is about: baseball

• I said it before and am saying this again.  Other teams are signing minor league free agents and the Guardians really aren't.   The team that can sign the most quality minor league free agents will have a huge leg up when we come out of this lockdown as those guys can go to camp and will be closer to game shape.
• If the Indians are not gathering all their star, non-roster minor leaguers in Arizona for the rest of the winter they are missing the boat.  Teams that give these young guys extra reps now will benefit later in the year when these guys become ML ready.   The Indians have done a good job accelerating the development of their young prospects but now, more than ever, they need to push down the accerator and put all their resources into these young kids.
• Let's hope there is no Rule 5 draft this year.   I really think that guys we might lose could be important pieces on the major league team or, if we get them to Arizona right now, could be important trade chips.   
• As far as the negotiations, let me refresh on what needs to be done:
• Universal DH
• No Rule 5 draft w/alterations to the minor league free agent structure (24 years old in signed before 19, 25 years old if 19 or over when signed.  
• No 4th option for any player (keep the super 2 arbitration thing)
• $1 million minimum salary for major league rookies
• Increase luxury tax limit to $250 million
• Set a bottom team salary to $100 million with contract offers as part of extensions to existing players (2 or more years with your team) being counted as part of that number.
• Some method of having minimum salary for veterans being based on performance instead of years of service.
• Modify draft pick assignment so teams don't try to tank but give all teams that don't qualify for the playoffs an extra draft pick after the third round of the draft, in order based on worst record.
• Free agency/qualifying offers remains the same but no loss of draft picks by signing team.
• Roster limits remain the same with one change.   Once your team is officially eliminated from the playoffs they can add an additional 2 players to their roster for the rest of the season.