Neil Wagner is about to be called up by the A's. Wouldn't it be great if he made his ML debut in Cleveland? [NOTE: He did tonight, throwing up to 98 mph in his one scoreless inning]. If you remember, in a roster crunch last year the Indians let Wagner go after only 13 appearances. He had had success at pretty much every level until then and I thought it was pretty darn premature to sell him to to Oakland for a few bucks. Well, now we find out that it was. Not that he looks unhittable now but he always threw hard and had some command so you wonder how we could have let him slip away. Wagner will not be the first minor leaguer to make the majors after he was jettisoned by another team but, still, the guy is in the majors just slightly over one year after the Indians got rid of him AND with the team they 'traded' him to. Seems like a mistake for me
Meanwhile, Jose Constanza continues to outhit (.341 to .274) and outhomer 2 to 0) Ezequiel Carrera. Not that either are ML starters but I would have guessed they could have given Constanza a shot last year. It is pretty obvious he earned it.
Jared Goedert continues to be hot in August as was predicted. To me, Goedert, Josh Judy and Zach Putnam should be called up. I don't think Chen Lee has to be rostered this winter so I wouldn't use a roster spot for him.
BTW, the Indians 2005 draft ranks 26th best in baseball for that year. I disagree with that but it is hard to disagree with the disappointment that Trevor Crowe has been, the stall in Nick Weglarz's career and the failure to sign Desmond Jennings or Tim Lincecum. Still, from that class, which was made incrementally better by Neil Wagner's ML debut tonight (can you believe the Indians gave up on a guy who can throw 98 as he did tonight and had sustained minor league success?), we have Crowe, Lewis, Jordan Brown and Wagner make it to the majors and the best prospect left from that draft, Weglarz, who may, if he can stay healthy, have a better ML career than all of them combined.
People have bounced around the idea of trading for Lance Berkman. The thought is that he would be too expensive. However, what if we 'rented' him, trading him for a lesser prospect with the idea that we trade him right back to the Cardinals after the season ends and before he can sign up for free agency. Can that even be done? I think so as guys have been 'rented' before, I think. I just can't remember one of them. In this way the Cardinals save a little money, get a "C" prospect, get to play one of their young guys, get Berkmann back into a pennant race, something that he would appreciate. Everybody wins and the Cardinals only impact the race in the other league so it doesn't look like they are playing king-makers in the NL. You know, stranger things have happened, like when I said that we could get Juan Gonzalez to waive his clause of no offer of arbitraion, when I said Nick Adenhart would sign for a reasonable bonus and, last winter, when I said we should put Goedert on the 60-day DL and was shouted down for that idea because the Indians would never pay him ML minimum when they could pay him minor league money during his rehab. Turns out that I was right on all of them so why not Berkman?
Finally, we need to trade Joe Smith if you can get a good return for him and trade Shelly Duncan and Chad Durbin for whatever you can get for them or release them to clear up roster space. We can win this division without any of them. Now, Jack Hanrahan you have to keep as he can field it and he is hot right now. Still, with the right offer I would even dump him right now, but it would have to be an offer of a player a tad better than Thomas Neal, and I doubt that will ever happen.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Head gets his shot!
Let's hope it is an extended one and not the we'll give you one opportunity to bury yourself chance that Cord Phelps, Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie and Jordan Brown got.
Now we are all still trying to figure out why Jack Hannahan is still on this team. I know he can pick it but he sure can't hit it and FOR SURE, he won't be doing either for the Cleveland Indians next year.
Bring up Jared Goedert.
Oh, BTW, trade Joe Smith and Shelly Duncan and send Chad Durbin packing. Have I mentioned that before?
Now we are all still trying to figure out why Jack Hannahan is still on this team. I know he can pick it but he sure can't hit it and FOR SURE, he won't be doing either for the Cleveland Indians next year.
Bring up Jared Goedert.
Oh, BTW, trade Joe Smith and Shelly Duncan and send Chad Durbin packing. Have I mentioned that before?
Saturday, August 27, 2011
With an eye on the future:
The Indians are hovering at the Atlanta Braves line (.500 mediocrity). While they still thrash around and make noise like they are going to compete this year while they should be looking to dump Joe Smith, Shelly Duncan, Chad Durbin and Jack Hannaha, the clock is ticking on their 2012 draft slot.
Look, the Indians are going to have to sign one or more FAs this off-season. There are just no sure thing righthanded bats in the minors and since the Indians continue to refuse to give marginal prospects Jerad Head and Jared Goedert a shot. we will never know if they can do anything.
So we have to sign a big righthanded bat this offseason.
Shapiro has, in his infamous Dellucci and Oldberto signings, showed us that he is not afraid to give up draft picks if he thinks (rightly or wrongly) that a move will put the Indians over the top. Besides the thought of a redux of that debacle scaring me to death, it does remind me that we kept our first round pick that year because our record from 2006 was just bad enough that we fit right in the bottom half of teams in the majors.
To add to the drama, MLB will put in mandatory draft bonus slotting next year meaning that there will be little or no likelihood that we can pick up a stud prospect later in the draft to make up for losing draft picks.
So, why am I worrying about this now? Because the Indians are teetering on finishing high enough in the standings that they could actually lose their FIRST round pick if they sign a Type A free agent this winter. Here is the current draft order with 2011 records. As you can see below, the White Sox and Reds are very close to us but right now we have the 17th worst record. We need to finish below the White Sox and Reds. We need to have the 15th worst record or worse next year. Go Tribe! It's a worthy goal in a lost season.
Look, the Indians are going to have to sign one or more FAs this off-season. There are just no sure thing righthanded bats in the minors and since the Indians continue to refuse to give marginal prospects Jerad Head and Jared Goedert a shot. we will never know if they can do anything.
So we have to sign a big righthanded bat this offseason.
Shapiro has, in his infamous Dellucci and Oldberto signings, showed us that he is not afraid to give up draft picks if he thinks (rightly or wrongly) that a move will put the Indians over the top. Besides the thought of a redux of that debacle scaring me to death, it does remind me that we kept our first round pick that year because our record from 2006 was just bad enough that we fit right in the bottom half of teams in the majors.
To add to the drama, MLB will put in mandatory draft bonus slotting next year meaning that there will be little or no likelihood that we can pick up a stud prospect later in the draft to make up for losing draft picks.
So, why am I worrying about this now? Because the Indians are teetering on finishing high enough in the standings that they could actually lose their FIRST round pick if they sign a Type A free agent this winter. Here is the current draft order with 2011 records. As you can see below, the White Sox and Reds are very close to us but right now we have the 17th worst record. We need to finish below the White Sox and Reds. We need to have the 15th worst record or worse next year. Go Tribe! It's a worthy goal in a lost season.
| Houston | 43 | 89 |
| Baltimore | 52 | 77 |
| Kansas City | 54 | 78 |
| Minnesota | 55 | 76 |
| Seattle | 56 | 74 |
| Chi Cubs | 57 | 75 |
| Florida | 59 | 72 |
| Oakland | 60 | 71 |
| San Diego | 60 | 72 |
| Pittsburgh | 61 | 70 |
| LA Dodgers | 61 | 69 |
| NY Mets | 62 | 68 |
| Washington | 62 | 68 |
| Colorado | 63 | 69 |
| Chi White Sox | 64 | 65 |
| Cincinnati | 65 | 66 |
| Cleveland | 64 | 64 |
| Toronto | 66 | 65 |
| St. Louis | 69 | 63 |
| San Francisco | 70 | 62 |
| Tampa Bay | 71 | 59 |
| LA Angels | 71 | 60 |
| Detroit | 72 | 59 |
| Arizona | 73 | 59 |
| Texas | 75 | 58 |
| NY Yankees | 78 | 51 |
| Atlanta | 79 | 54 |
| Milwaukee | 79 | 54 |
| Boston | 80 | 51 |
| Philadelphia | 83 | 46 |
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Question answered: Yes, they really are that stupid!
Resisting all fan begging and, of course, logic to bring Thome back in earlier years, they bring him back for the last month of a lost season. Incredibly stupid.
Head, Goedert, whoever. Those guys could get some ABs, not Jim Thome.
You have open DH ABs, give them to freaking Carlos Santana if you don't want to bring up one of the deserving AAA guys. Save him for future years.
This is a stupid move. It's not even desperate. It's just plain stupid.
They have had ample opportunities to bring back Thome and Omar Vizquel over the years, including times where Hafner has been injured. This is not the time or the place to bring the guy back.
Now let's wait to see who the PTBNL is. Remember, a starting pitcher got us only Yohan Pino a couple of years ago. The BEST we should give up is Joe Martinez. Anything more turns this joke into a farce.
Head, Goedert, whoever. Those guys could get some ABs, not Jim Thome.
You have open DH ABs, give them to freaking Carlos Santana if you don't want to bring up one of the deserving AAA guys. Save him for future years.
This is a stupid move. It's not even desperate. It's just plain stupid.
They have had ample opportunities to bring back Thome and Omar Vizquel over the years, including times where Hafner has been injured. This is not the time or the place to bring the guy back.
Now let's wait to see who the PTBNL is. Remember, a starting pitcher got us only Yohan Pino a couple of years ago. The BEST we should give up is Joe Martinez. Anything more turns this joke into a farce.
Would we really be that stupid?
Look, we are NOT getting back in this race except in the case of a miracle. Why would trade one even "C" prospect for a 30 day rental? Why?
Trading for Kubel or Thome is just stupid and this is from a guy who has suggested signing Thome as a FA every time he was one or trading for him every time a team wanted to give him away.
Now is NOT the time. It IS the time to look at own minor leaguers. You want to bring up someone to DH? Bring up Head or Goedert.
You are out of the race. Get over it! Jim Thome and Jason Kubel couldn't be saviors in Minnesota and they can't be saviors here.
I don't even want to do another Abner Abreu/Carlton Smith deal.
Remember two years ago we got Yohan Pino, he of no discernable ability for Carl Pavano in a similar August deal. So, assuming we are going to make this stupid trade, THE MOST I would be willing to give up is Joe Martinez.
Remember that if this deal goes down: Joe Martinez is the most we should have given up and we have a recent example with the same club to show that's the upside we should pay.
But this is the Cleveland Indians so we will probably give up Jerad Head or Jared Goedert instead of playing them. The Indians are known for dumping minor leaguers who should be given a chance but aren't and become liabilities to the ineptness of the organization. If you keep them people really start asking why you don't give them a chance. So the answer is to just dump them for nothing or in a deal for a rental veteran.
Trading for Kubel or Thome is just stupid and this is from a guy who has suggested signing Thome as a FA every time he was one or trading for him every time a team wanted to give him away.
Now is NOT the time. It IS the time to look at own minor leaguers. You want to bring up someone to DH? Bring up Head or Goedert.
You are out of the race. Get over it! Jim Thome and Jason Kubel couldn't be saviors in Minnesota and they can't be saviors here.
I don't even want to do another Abner Abreu/Carlton Smith deal.
Remember two years ago we got Yohan Pino, he of no discernable ability for Carl Pavano in a similar August deal. So, assuming we are going to make this stupid trade, THE MOST I would be willing to give up is Joe Martinez.
Remember that if this deal goes down: Joe Martinez is the most we should have given up and we have a recent example with the same club to show that's the upside we should pay.
But this is the Cleveland Indians so we will probably give up Jerad Head or Jared Goedert instead of playing them. The Indians are known for dumping minor leaguers who should be given a chance but aren't and become liabilities to the ineptness of the organization. If you keep them people really start asking why you don't give them a chance. So the answer is to just dump them for nothing or in a deal for a rental veteran.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Who will blink first?
Will it be the White Sox or the Indians. Both are now below the Braves line (.500). My guess is that Kenny Williams starts dumping veterans first and gets some good prospects back.
We need to dump Duncan, Durbin, Hannahan and Joe Smith. I know I have said that before but Duncan has raised his value significantly recently, Joe Smith has OK, but lower value than at the trading deadline and Durbin and Hannahan may have limited value but may help if we throw them in with the other two.
I bet the White Sox blink first (i.e., give up on the season) and get some good prospects back for their veterans. Why shouldn't they? They didn't give up a big chunk of their future for an ace who is currently flushing himself down the toilet.
BTW, on an unrelated note the Phillies just signed their first expensive Latin FA. That leaves the following guys left unsigned.
Maybe with the pathetic draft we had after the first two rounds we might think about swooping in and signing these 7 guys or other high talent guys, assuming their ages are not in question.
We need to dump Duncan, Durbin, Hannahan and Joe Smith. I know I have said that before but Duncan has raised his value significantly recently, Joe Smith has OK, but lower value than at the trading deadline and Durbin and Hannahan may have limited value but may help if we throw them in with the other two.
I bet the White Sox blink first (i.e., give up on the season) and get some good prospects back for their veterans. Why shouldn't they? They didn't give up a big chunk of their future for an ace who is currently flushing himself down the toilet.
BTW, on an unrelated note the Phillies just signed their first expensive Latin FA. That leaves the following guys left unsigned.
| 18. Franmil Reyes, OF, Dominican Republic |
| 28. Mauricio Silva, RHP, Venezuela |
| 31. Manuel Gonzalez, RHP, Dominican Republic |
| 32. Gialy Arias, RHP, Dominican Republic |
| 34. Sanber Pimentel, OF/1B, Dominican Republic |
| 37. Yairo Munoz, SS, Dominican Republic |
| 38. Soid Marquez, RHP, Venezuela |
Maybe with the pathetic draft we had after the first two rounds we might think about swooping in and signing these 7 guys or other high talent guys, assuming their ages are not in question.
In case you didn't see it...
...Jerad Head, Jared Goedert and Cord Phelps all homered last night.
We are out of this race. Except for looking really stupid pulling the plug on the season 3 weeks after way overpaying for a pitcher who actually did a lot in his short time here to put us out of this race, what is stopping us from dumping our AAAA guys and giving minor leaguers a chance?
I mean, it can't hurt, right?
We are out of this race. Except for looking really stupid pulling the plug on the season 3 weeks after way overpaying for a pitcher who actually did a lot in his short time here to put us out of this race, what is stopping us from dumping our AAAA guys and giving minor leaguers a chance?
I mean, it can't hurt, right?
Monday, August 22, 2011
We are done here, now what's next?
5 1/2 games out with no hope in sight. Look at the lineup tonight:
Michael Brantley .266, from CC trade; expectation: career 4th outfielder, slightly below Ben Francisco in ability
Jason Donald - .219, from Cliff Lee trade; expectation: career utility infielder
Matt LaPorta - .239, from CC trade; expectation: mediocre career
Lou Marson - .229 - from Cliff Lee trade; career backup.
The only person who was missing was Carlos Carrasco and we know about him.
The Indians have squandered their riches (CC and Lee) and gotton NOTHING in value in return. They have overpaid for Ubaldo Jimenez who apparently is more like Fausto Carmona than Cliff Lee. Antonetti's comment about ups and downs that pitchers go through and that Ubaldo just went into a down when the Indians got him is a joke. That's why you scout guys.
Now writers are talking about Jim Thome. I was a huge proponent of Thome coming back here but after we signed Hafner to the long-term extension and his body made him into a full-time DH, I knew that was never going to happen. Heck, we could have had Omar Vizquel a lot of times and, instead, we went through AAAA utility man after utility man.
So, the ML team sucks. There is not one, I mean NOT ONE quality prospect left in the minors that has a high likelihood of being any more than a complimentary player here over the "window" (2012-3). The cupboard is bare and while Kipnis looks to be the real deal, Chisenhall's 2011 minor and major league numbers make me think that we will be LUCKY if he turns out to be Casey Blake.
in addition, we won so many games early that it is likely that we will now only get a middling draft slot next year and, if we aren't careful, we will end up being somewhere between 16 and 20 in draft slot next year, meaning we will have to give up our top draft pick if we sign a Type A free agent (not withstanding changes to the collective bargaining agreement). Cleveland should NOT be giving up draft picks. EVER. But, you know what? As desperate as the FO is to win after way overpaying for Jimenez, they will probably sign a high priced FA or two and lose a draft pick or two. Remember David Dellucci and Roberto Hernandez? Our 2007 draft was given an "F", mostly because of the strategy that had to be employed because we didn't have a second or third round pick AND because we didn't have those picks..
Plus, Kansas City had another great draft and great signing of Latin kids while we were mediocre in both areas and have positioned themselves to slam the "window" on our hands as well as trumping us in long-term development since our 2010 draft class is pathethic now due to losing Pomeranz and having so many of the other guys, except for Wolters, underperform, some at unbelievably bad levels .
The only hope to salvage anything out of this season right now is that we dump Durbin, Duncan and Hannahan and trade Joe Smith if we get a good return and start rebuilding for next year. You bring up Head, Goedert and the relievers and you start building for next season. I said to do that in July. The Indians didn't. But I worry that won't happen. The Indians are so "in" on competing this season they have to justify the Jimenez trade by maybe doing something else stupid and, certainly, by keeping every AAAA guy they have to try to win games to not make the Jimenez trade look really stupid (i.e., trade the farm and, 3 weeks later, pull the plug on the season).
Heck, even if they did pull the plug it doesn't mean deserving guys in the minors will get a chance. They never gave Jose Constanza or Chris Coste or Jordan Brown in his IL batting champion season, even a cup of coffee in losing seasons. But they filled the roster in losing seasons with AAAA guys and broken down vets.
The Indians just don't get it. They never will. They believe AAAA guys win championships and they make stupid trades where they waste two Cy Young award winners for the types of guys you can pull off a waiver wire or acquire as a non-compensation FA and then, with a pathetic team held together by duct tape and all the stars being in alignment, trade two of the top 50 prospects in baseball for another Cy Young award type guy when any idiot knew that it would take immense luck for this team to even be competitive by September.
So now that the season is officially over maybe the FO can have a rational thought. Nah, it's the Cleveland Indians. That ain't happening. They will play CYA and continue doing the stupid things that ended the dynasty in the 90s and have kept them virtually non-coimpetitive in the current millenium. They will thrash around just like the teams of the 80s, doing changes of direction faster than you can say 'mediocre'.
The Indians don't get it. They never WILL get it and they will continue to squander the riches that mediocrity bring with it. They are the Cleveland Indians. What more should we expect?
Michael Brantley .266, from CC trade; expectation: career 4th outfielder, slightly below Ben Francisco in ability
Jason Donald - .219, from Cliff Lee trade; expectation: career utility infielder
Matt LaPorta - .239, from CC trade; expectation: mediocre career
Lou Marson - .229 - from Cliff Lee trade; career backup.
The only person who was missing was Carlos Carrasco and we know about him.
The Indians have squandered their riches (CC and Lee) and gotton NOTHING in value in return. They have overpaid for Ubaldo Jimenez who apparently is more like Fausto Carmona than Cliff Lee. Antonetti's comment about ups and downs that pitchers go through and that Ubaldo just went into a down when the Indians got him is a joke. That's why you scout guys.
Now writers are talking about Jim Thome. I was a huge proponent of Thome coming back here but after we signed Hafner to the long-term extension and his body made him into a full-time DH, I knew that was never going to happen. Heck, we could have had Omar Vizquel a lot of times and, instead, we went through AAAA utility man after utility man.
So, the ML team sucks. There is not one, I mean NOT ONE quality prospect left in the minors that has a high likelihood of being any more than a complimentary player here over the "window" (2012-3). The cupboard is bare and while Kipnis looks to be the real deal, Chisenhall's 2011 minor and major league numbers make me think that we will be LUCKY if he turns out to be Casey Blake.
in addition, we won so many games early that it is likely that we will now only get a middling draft slot next year and, if we aren't careful, we will end up being somewhere between 16 and 20 in draft slot next year, meaning we will have to give up our top draft pick if we sign a Type A free agent (not withstanding changes to the collective bargaining agreement). Cleveland should NOT be giving up draft picks. EVER. But, you know what? As desperate as the FO is to win after way overpaying for Jimenez, they will probably sign a high priced FA or two and lose a draft pick or two. Remember David Dellucci and Roberto Hernandez? Our 2007 draft was given an "F", mostly because of the strategy that had to be employed because we didn't have a second or third round pick AND because we didn't have those picks..
Plus, Kansas City had another great draft and great signing of Latin kids while we were mediocre in both areas and have positioned themselves to slam the "window" on our hands as well as trumping us in long-term development since our 2010 draft class is pathethic now due to losing Pomeranz and having so many of the other guys, except for Wolters, underperform, some at unbelievably bad levels .
The only hope to salvage anything out of this season right now is that we dump Durbin, Duncan and Hannahan and trade Joe Smith if we get a good return and start rebuilding for next year. You bring up Head, Goedert and the relievers and you start building for next season. I said to do that in July. The Indians didn't. But I worry that won't happen. The Indians are so "in" on competing this season they have to justify the Jimenez trade by maybe doing something else stupid and, certainly, by keeping every AAAA guy they have to try to win games to not make the Jimenez trade look really stupid (i.e., trade the farm and, 3 weeks later, pull the plug on the season).
Heck, even if they did pull the plug it doesn't mean deserving guys in the minors will get a chance. They never gave Jose Constanza or Chris Coste or Jordan Brown in his IL batting champion season, even a cup of coffee in losing seasons. But they filled the roster in losing seasons with AAAA guys and broken down vets.
The Indians just don't get it. They never will. They believe AAAA guys win championships and they make stupid trades where they waste two Cy Young award winners for the types of guys you can pull off a waiver wire or acquire as a non-compensation FA and then, with a pathetic team held together by duct tape and all the stars being in alignment, trade two of the top 50 prospects in baseball for another Cy Young award type guy when any idiot knew that it would take immense luck for this team to even be competitive by September.
So now that the season is officially over maybe the FO can have a rational thought. Nah, it's the Cleveland Indians. That ain't happening. They will play CYA and continue doing the stupid things that ended the dynasty in the 90s and have kept them virtually non-coimpetitive in the current millenium. They will thrash around just like the teams of the 80s, doing changes of direction faster than you can say 'mediocre'.
The Indians don't get it. They never WILL get it and they will continue to squander the riches that mediocrity bring with it. They are the Cleveland Indians. What more should we expect?
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Time to pile on
At the trade deadline we heard some teams were shying away from Ubaldo Jimenez due to fears that his dominance was a flash in the pan. Others said that his performance were only off a tick from his Cy Young-like perfromance of the past.
My take was: Well, this better work because we gave up a great deal of the future. That was even exacerbated by the lukewarm performances of the pitchers from the later rounds in 2010 and the loss of Drew Pomeranz and Alex White from the farm system for Jimenez.
Well, Jimenez is pitching AWAY from Coors Field and, frankly, the guy sucks. He sucks worse than Carlos Carrasco, if that is humanly possible. He has sucked from the moment he became an Indian. Yeah, he had a good game, but bottom line is that can be ascribed to the blind squirrel meets hitters he has never or seldom faced school of thought. Otherwise, did I mention he sucks?
Jimenez sucks and this trade has now crippled the future of the Cleveland Indians. Will this turn around. I sure as hell hope so because the Cleveland Indians of ANY era cannot afford to have this type of disaster beset them
Hey, I am not talking about 2011 here. Who gives a crap about that. I mean freakin' Chad Durbin, Shelly Duncan and Jack Hannahan are still on this roster meaning that we don't yet have a major league team we are fielding. What I am talking about is the 2012-2018. That is what Antonetti has screwed up here unless Jimenez makes a miraculous comeback.
And the Colorado Rockies have stolen the Indians' future. Perfect.
My take was: Well, this better work because we gave up a great deal of the future. That was even exacerbated by the lukewarm performances of the pitchers from the later rounds in 2010 and the loss of Drew Pomeranz and Alex White from the farm system for Jimenez.
Well, Jimenez is pitching AWAY from Coors Field and, frankly, the guy sucks. He sucks worse than Carlos Carrasco, if that is humanly possible. He has sucked from the moment he became an Indian. Yeah, he had a good game, but bottom line is that can be ascribed to the blind squirrel meets hitters he has never or seldom faced school of thought. Otherwise, did I mention he sucks?
Jimenez sucks and this trade has now crippled the future of the Cleveland Indians. Will this turn around. I sure as hell hope so because the Cleveland Indians of ANY era cannot afford to have this type of disaster beset them
Hey, I am not talking about 2011 here. Who gives a crap about that. I mean freakin' Chad Durbin, Shelly Duncan and Jack Hannahan are still on this roster meaning that we don't yet have a major league team we are fielding. What I am talking about is the 2012-2018. That is what Antonetti has screwed up here unless Jimenez makes a miraculous comeback.
And the Colorado Rockies have stolen the Indians' future. Perfect.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
I just wanted to say...
...I love the season the Indians have given us this year. They have outlasted most of the pretenders and, while 3 1/2 games out, they still have a chance.
Either way, it's been a great year held together by duct tape and prayers.
At this point, anything else I say will sound like a broken record.
Go Tribe!
Either way, it's been a great year held together by duct tape and prayers.
At this point, anything else I say will sound like a broken record.
Go Tribe!
Friday, August 19, 2011
I am so glad...
...that the Indians are not taking this pennant race thing too seriously. One way too not feel pressure is to be in denial of that pressure and the Indians are clearly in denial.
I mean, how else can you explain the continued re-appearances of Shelly Duncan? You have to be sort of nonchalant and so loosey-goosey about this race that you might not pass a breathilizer to keep making the Duncan mistake over and over.
Hey, Antonetti, how many freakin' HRs does Jerad Head have to hit before you give him a freakin' chance? Are you just waiting for him to be in a deep slump at Columbus before you bring him up so that your impression of him as a non-prospect can become a self-fulling one? Well, that is a little over the top but, gosh, give the guy (Head) a chance.
I, and I am sure I am not alone, can only stand so many of these promotions to the majors that involve this CLASSIC AAAA player (or any AAAA player, for that matter). Shelly Duncan has had his 15 minutes with the Indians. DFA him and bring up Jerad Head. I mean, how bad can he be?
BTW, two more hits for Jared Goedert tonight. As much as I like the human interest story of Hannahan, the chartered jet and his newborn child, it is time to cut ties with this guy and bring up Goedert.
We scored one stupid run tonight. How much worse could it get if you bring up Head and Goedert?
Oh, one more thing while I am on my soap box: I can't recall (maybe I have blocked it out) a guy who frustrates me more than Valbuena. The guy can't hit a lick in the majors but kills AAA pitching. Yeah, I know, AAAA guys like this exist (see Hector Luna) but I was hoping for more out of Valbuena
The Indians have precious little margin for error the rest of the way. They need to win all the games that they should win. They aren't doing that, losing a lot of one-run games and winning one with a bases-loaded HBP in the 14th inning.
They need to bring up Head and Goedert and the relievers. Give them a chance. How much worse can the offense be than it is right now?
I mean, how else can you explain the continued re-appearances of Shelly Duncan? You have to be sort of nonchalant and so loosey-goosey about this race that you might not pass a breathilizer to keep making the Duncan mistake over and over.
Hey, Antonetti, how many freakin' HRs does Jerad Head have to hit before you give him a freakin' chance? Are you just waiting for him to be in a deep slump at Columbus before you bring him up so that your impression of him as a non-prospect can become a self-fulling one? Well, that is a little over the top but, gosh, give the guy (Head) a chance.
I, and I am sure I am not alone, can only stand so many of these promotions to the majors that involve this CLASSIC AAAA player (or any AAAA player, for that matter). Shelly Duncan has had his 15 minutes with the Indians. DFA him and bring up Jerad Head. I mean, how bad can he be?
BTW, two more hits for Jared Goedert tonight. As much as I like the human interest story of Hannahan, the chartered jet and his newborn child, it is time to cut ties with this guy and bring up Goedert.
We scored one stupid run tonight. How much worse could it get if you bring up Head and Goedert?
Oh, one more thing while I am on my soap box: I can't recall (maybe I have blocked it out) a guy who frustrates me more than Valbuena. The guy can't hit a lick in the majors but kills AAA pitching. Yeah, I know, AAAA guys like this exist (see Hector Luna) but I was hoping for more out of Valbuena
The Indians have precious little margin for error the rest of the way. They need to win all the games that they should win. They aren't doing that, losing a lot of one-run games and winning one with a bases-loaded HBP in the 14th inning.
They need to bring up Head and Goedert and the relievers. Give them a chance. How much worse can the offense be than it is right now?
Monday, August 15, 2011
Draft SIgning Recap
OK, let's be honest. This draft was really about Francisco Lindor and Dillon Howard.
Yeah, a lot of forumites from around the many blog sites for the Indians were all adither about Dillon Peters, (who, if he is truly 5'9", 200 pounds, could easily earn the nickname "round mound of the mound") and Stephen Tarpley and were giddy at the bloated bonus that Eric Haase got and turned away when it was mentioned by various people that maybe Shawn Morimando and Shawn Armstrong got about 4 times the bonus they should have. Hey, maybe they did a study and found that guys named Shawn drafted in the 18th and 19th rounds did better, historically, than the average 18th or 19th rounder. Who knows, because it sure wasn't based on talent, at least if you believe the prospect rankings.
Turns out Tarpley is going to USC and Peters to Texas.
But this draft was really about Lindor and Howard. We signed both of them although it cost us over $1.5 million over slot to do it. Add to that Haase's ($650,000), Armstrong's ($325,000) and Morimando's ($340,000) bonuses and for those 5 guys we paid easily $2.3 million over slot, combined, to sign them and, with the latter 3, problably almost $1 million more than they are worth, based on talent rankings.
This draft was never set up to sign a bunch of stud prospects on August 15th. They didn't really draft any after Howard. Over-bonusing (new word to go along with overdrafting) Haase, Morimando, Armstrong, Merritt, McPhee and others doesn't make up for failing to draft quality prospects later in the draft and failing to sign the one, Peters, who you did draft. Overdrafting Lowery, Sisco and Roberts just so you can pay them slot doesn't help, either.
Let's compare my shadow draft results (the guys in bold signed and I have included their bonuses and their BA ranking):
In terms of bonuses for the top 20 rounds I signed my 16 guys for $5.8 million. The Indians signed theirs for $7.6 million.
So, I have already done better on this draft money-wise. I would say I am better talent-wise right now, although only slightly but we can wait for 3 years on that one.
This draft may pan out but it won't be because of anyone drafted after the 2nd round. John Mirabelli once said if you get two good ML players and a couple of bit players out of a draft you have done well. Well, in this draft, the UPSIDE is 2 good ML players, one solid ML player and a couple of bit players. That's the UPSIDE, right after the draft, when things generally look the rosiest.
OVERALL RATING: This is, at best, a slightly above average draft. If either Howard or Lindor fail, it is a below average draft. If they both fail this draft has so little talent after the second round it will instantly become like 2001. Go back and look at that draft and see how that turned out. As a matter of fact, on paper, this draft is IDENTICAL to 2001. Let's hope it turns out better 10 years later. It sure as hell was done the same way. They say insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. Let's hope 'they' are wrong because a lot of the 2009 and 2010 draft walked out the door for the underperforming Jimenez and the rest of the 2009 and 2010 draft classes, outside of Kipnis and Wolters, are looking anywhere from pretty bad to mediocre/bit prospect-like, at least at the moment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, a lot of forumites from around the many blog sites for the Indians were all adither about Dillon Peters, (who, if he is truly 5'9", 200 pounds, could easily earn the nickname "round mound of the mound") and Stephen Tarpley and were giddy at the bloated bonus that Eric Haase got and turned away when it was mentioned by various people that maybe Shawn Morimando and Shawn Armstrong got about 4 times the bonus they should have. Hey, maybe they did a study and found that guys named Shawn drafted in the 18th and 19th rounds did better, historically, than the average 18th or 19th rounder. Who knows, because it sure wasn't based on talent, at least if you believe the prospect rankings.
Turns out Tarpley is going to USC and Peters to Texas.
But this draft was really about Lindor and Howard. We signed both of them although it cost us over $1.5 million over slot to do it. Add to that Haase's ($650,000), Armstrong's ($325,000) and Morimando's ($340,000) bonuses and for those 5 guys we paid easily $2.3 million over slot, combined, to sign them and, with the latter 3, problably almost $1 million more than they are worth, based on talent rankings.
This draft was never set up to sign a bunch of stud prospects on August 15th. They didn't really draft any after Howard. Over-bonusing (new word to go along with overdrafting) Haase, Morimando, Armstrong, Merritt, McPhee and others doesn't make up for failing to draft quality prospects later in the draft and failing to sign the one, Peters, who you did draft. Overdrafting Lowery, Sisco and Roberts just so you can pay them slot doesn't help, either.
Let's compare my shadow draft results (the guys in bold signed and I have included their bonuses and their BA ranking):
1. Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticutt – (13) $1.5 million
2. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tennessee HS (16) $2 million
3. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B/SS Southern Mississippi (63) $304,000
2. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tennessee HS (16) $2 million
3. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B/SS Southern Mississippi (63) $304,000
4. Noe Ramirez, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (93) $625,000
5. Matt Price, RH Closer, Georgia Tech (141) – Did not sign
6. Derek Fisher, OF, PA HS (66) – Did not sign
7. Cody Kukuk, LHP, Kansas HS (154) $800,000
5. Matt Price, RH Closer, Georgia Tech (141) – Did not sign
6. Derek Fisher, OF, PA HS (66) – Did not sign
7. Cody Kukuk, LHP, Kansas HS (154) $800,000
8. Kyle Winkler, RHP, Texas (43) $240,000
9. Dusty Robinson, OF, Fresno State (115) $100,000
10. Nick Rickles, C, Stetson (194) $60,000
9. Dusty Robinson, OF, Fresno State (115) $100,000
10. Nick Rickles, C, Stetson (194) $60,000
11. Ben Alsup, RHP, LSU $1,000
12. Mike McGee, OF, Florida State, $1,000
13. Zach McPhee, 2B, Arizona State $150,000
14. Chad Zurcher, 2B, Memphis $50,000
15. Jeff Schaus, OF, LSU
16. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC HS (198) – Did not sign
17. Matt Stites, RHP, Missouri $3000
18. Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC
12. Mike McGee, OF, Florida State, $1,000
13. Zach McPhee, 2B, Arizona State $150,000
14. Chad Zurcher, 2B, Memphis $50,000
15. Jeff Schaus, OF, LSU
16. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC HS (198) – Did not sign
17. Matt Stites, RHP, Missouri $3000
18. Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC
19. Pete Lavin, OF, San Francisco 20. Dillon Peters, LHP, IN HS (104)
16 of the top 20 signed from my shadow draft, 8 of the top 10 including Daniel Norris who was rated higher than Dillon Howard and signed for close to the same amount. I also got highly rated Cody Kukuk and Kyle Winkler who was a first round option until he got hurt late in the year. In terms of bonuses for the top 20 rounds I signed my 16 guys for $5.8 million. The Indians signed theirs for $7.6 million.
So, I have already done better on this draft money-wise. I would say I am better talent-wise right now, although only slightly but we can wait for 3 years on that one.
This draft may pan out but it won't be because of anyone drafted after the 2nd round. John Mirabelli once said if you get two good ML players and a couple of bit players out of a draft you have done well. Well, in this draft, the UPSIDE is 2 good ML players, one solid ML player and a couple of bit players. That's the UPSIDE, right after the draft, when things generally look the rosiest.
OVERALL RATING: This is, at best, a slightly above average draft. If either Howard or Lindor fail, it is a below average draft. If they both fail this draft has so little talent after the second round it will instantly become like 2001. Go back and look at that draft and see how that turned out. As a matter of fact, on paper, this draft is IDENTICAL to 2001. Let's hope it turns out better 10 years later. It sure as hell was done the same way. They say insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. Let's hope 'they' are wrong because a lot of the 2009 and 2010 draft walked out the door for the underperforming Jimenez and the rest of the 2009 and 2010 draft classes, outside of Kipnis and Wolters, are looking anywhere from pretty bad to mediocre/bit prospect-like, at least at the moment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A momentary respite from the pressure of draft night - Follow up on the dump the AAAA guy post
Through the trading deadline and the day after it I said we should dump Chad Durbin, Austin Kearns and Jack Hannahan. I said we should trade Joe Smith and send down Frank Herrmann. I said we should bring up Jared Goedert, who I felt was ready to go on a hot streak, Jerad Head, Josh Judy and Zach Putnam or Chen Lee. I said that in this way we could still compete as young guys can have a lot of success in their first few weeks before the league figures them out. Let’s look at what has happened since the beginning of August, starting with the AAA stats of the guys I wanted brought up:
Goedert .447/.711/1.244, going on a hot streak as I predicted he would.
Head: .326/.739/1.080 with 4 2B and 5 HR in 46 AB, hitting .326.
Judy: 2-0, 8.53 ERA, two blown saves and four saves in 7 appearances, 4 of 6 runs (6.1 IP) in one game
Lee: 6.1 IP, 9 K, 2 R (on a 2 run HR) in 3 games
Putnam: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R (on a 2 run HR), 11 Ks in 4 games
In the meantime the Indians have gone 7-5 with 4 of those losses by one run and the guys I wanted to get rid of have gone, in the major leagues:
Kearns: 0-10, 5 K (and Duncan, for Kearns 4-18, 1 HR). Remember, Kearns is making $1.3 million, the cost of three rookies!
Hannahan: 1-5, 3 K
Durbin: 3 G, 4.2 IP, 0 R.
Herrmann: 3 G 4 IP, 0 R
Joe Smith: 7 G, 6.1 IP, 7 H 4 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 3 inherited runners scored
Note that both all 3 pitchers pitched effectively in the 14 inning win against Detroit that started that series AND that Joe Smith has pretty much trashed the bloated value he had at the deadline.
Would bringing up those 5 guys have made any difference? We will never know. You can guess that it might have hurt us in the 14 inning game but how many of those 1-run losses would have turned around with a little hitting and you can even postulate that the 14 inning game doesn’t even make it to extra innings if we could have managed even a little hitting in innings 3-9.
We do know this: as far as the hitters, it wouldn’t have hurt and my guess is that the relievers would have done just as well as what the above major leaguers did, with the possible exception of the aforementioned 14 game game that might not have been 14 innings..
We also know that we have probably trashed all of Joe Smith’s trade value which, at the end of July, was probably pretty substantial.
Also, in bringing up the rookies we would have been going in the right direction as far as player development, showcasing “B” prospects for future trades and salary goes. Plus, we would most likely have gotten something good back for Smith.
This is what small market teams should do: give their young guys a chance and don’t count on AAAA guys. Yeah, all that stuff about veteran leadership is important, to be sure, but NOT when you have guys putting in outstanding performances banging on the door. Hey, we might be in first place right now instead of 2 games back had we done that.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
The deadline approaches: Be afraid, very afraid
OK, right after the draft my analysis said that the Indians had gone cheap after the first two rounds with their best next prospect being 20th rounder Dillon Peters, who has been listed as a 5’9” about 200 pound HS LHP from the cold weather state of Indiana. Basically, the Indians drafted mostly lesser talents who should sign for at or below slot money. They did not set themselves up, as they did in 2010, to sign later picks because, frankly, they didn't draft any highly ranked guys in later rounds, guys who fell for some reason at draft time.
About a week ago I said that it was looking like the Indians were starting to overpay for lower round picks who really didn’t have the talent to justify the overslot bonuses. I said how stupid that move was, throwing good money after bad in a panic after realizing that you might not get enough from a draft that THEY constructed to be cheap and relatively devoid of top 5 round talent. I mentioned that they did a similar thing in 2001 when they realized they couldn’t sign Alan Horne and divided his bonus between middling HS pitching prospects TJ Burton, Martin Vergara, and Jimmy Schultz. Those guys were 10th – 12th round talents and were signed for 2nd-4th round money. Burton made it the furthest, eventually reaching AA. Now, as we approach the draft deadline on Monday, the Indians, 10 years later, are repeating the mistake of 2001.
Now, just 2 days from the signing deadline, more evidence is surfacing that the Indians are overpaying for lesser talents in this draft. Here is what they have done now.
Eric Hasse 7th round - $650,000. The kid was ranked 174th in the country by PG Crosschecker, not even in the top 200 by Baseball America. His scholarship offer was to lowly Ohio State. It's not like he was a top prospect. Yet he commanded 2nd round money! He should have, based on his talent, gotten 6th round money, or no more that $200,000.
Shawn Morimando – 19th round: $350,000 – Morimando was not highly ranked. By PG Crosschecker he was the 247th best prospect. He was not ranked in the top 200 by Baseball America His PG ranking would make him about an 8th round talent. The slot for the 8th round is $150,000 so we paid him more than double slot, basically giving the guy late 3rd round money. He is a 5’11” lefty who pitches around 87 mph with his fastball (clocked as high as 91 when he airs it out) and he has very good control. Not exactly 3rd round material on paper or in ranking, more like a 10th rounder, similar to Clayton Cook. 10th rounders max out in bonus around $150,000 unless they are highly ranked guys who just fell at draft time.
Even guys like Zach McPhee ($150,000), Geoff Davenport ($100,000), Ryan Merritt ($150,000), while they are not overslot signings, per se, were not very highly rated AT ALL at draft time and signed at ($150K) or near the maximum you should pay, within the slotting system, for a pick after the 7th round. Thus, we even pushed the envelope to sign those guys, spending more money than they are probably worth.
In summary, the Indians made one of the classic mistakes in drafting: they didn’t construct their draft to be filled with quality prospects and yet spent as if they did. THAT is how you end up with a bad farm system and with a bad taste in ownership's mouth about wasting money on the draft.
We have to keep signing these guys. Some of them may pan out so signing is better than not signing, which assumes we have no better use for the money, which, in turn, assumes that we are done in Latin America, which I hope we aren't. However, if you are following at home, this is NOT the way to run a draft.
Now, on to signing Lindor, Howard, Tarpley and Peters. Maybe the talent of the first two and the statistical chance that a few of the overdrafted, overpaid guys in this draft will pan out, may yet make this a good draft down the road, albeit one that is not worth the money that was spent on it.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
A prime example
Just checking the ML stats and noticed that former Indians' minor leaguer Jose Constanza is solidfying his role in the majors with Atlanta.
Has he changed from when he was with the Indians? Absolutely not. He is hitting the same way he did in the Indians' farm system.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jose-Constanza
The difference? He is just getting a chance.
And that's the point, really. He's getting a chance.
While I like Ezequiel Carrera, I think Constanza is as good or better of a prospect. He is performing well in a pennant race, hitting .413 with likely more HRs (one) than Carrera will ever hit in the majors. So if you want to assume they are similar players, that's a reasonable assumption. The problem is that the Indians never gave Constanza a chance to prove himself in losing seasons where the cost, if he failed, was low in terms of team success. Atlanta is giving him that chance, in a pressure situation in a pennant race, and he is repsonding.
Fast forward to 2011. We have pathetic AAAA guys like Kearns, Hannahan, Duncan, Durbin, etc. still on our roster. We have Joe Smith who is a trade candidate. We have roster spots available.
And, in AAA, we have right-handed hitting outfielders and infielders who have some potential (Hearns and Goedert, although Goedert is more about streakiness) and we have MANY relief pitchers who are ready.
But we don't give them a chance. We have repeatedly over the years dissed our minor leaguers for AAAA guys and washed up veterans. Some of those guys (OCab and Kearns, 2010 model) have netted us decent returns in deadline deals but the others have just sucked resources from the Indians and blocked minor leaguers getting their Constanza-like chances.
So, let's let the Jose Constanzas of the world be contributors to other teams' pennant races and let's keep bringing in AAAA guys to staff our bench. Yeah, that makes sense and it has worked soooooo well in the recent past.
There is certainly no future in AAAA guys while Constanza has some upside. And now we are determining what I have known for a long time, that, many times, the present for a poorly scouted rookie is also better than the present for a washed up AAAA guy.
Future maybe better, present better. Check.
We should have brought up Head, Goedert, Judy and Putnam (or Chen) when I suggested. We should have traded Joe Smith.
When will we stop making these kinds of mistakes and have the guts (albeit potentially ill-placed guts, time will tell) that Antonetti had in obtaining Jimenez?
Has he changed from when he was with the Indians? Absolutely not. He is hitting the same way he did in the Indians' farm system.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jose-Constanza
The difference? He is just getting a chance.
And that's the point, really. He's getting a chance.
While I like Ezequiel Carrera, I think Constanza is as good or better of a prospect. He is performing well in a pennant race, hitting .413 with likely more HRs (one) than Carrera will ever hit in the majors. So if you want to assume they are similar players, that's a reasonable assumption. The problem is that the Indians never gave Constanza a chance to prove himself in losing seasons where the cost, if he failed, was low in terms of team success. Atlanta is giving him that chance, in a pressure situation in a pennant race, and he is repsonding.
Fast forward to 2011. We have pathetic AAAA guys like Kearns, Hannahan, Duncan, Durbin, etc. still on our roster. We have Joe Smith who is a trade candidate. We have roster spots available.
And, in AAA, we have right-handed hitting outfielders and infielders who have some potential (Hearns and Goedert, although Goedert is more about streakiness) and we have MANY relief pitchers who are ready.
But we don't give them a chance. We have repeatedly over the years dissed our minor leaguers for AAAA guys and washed up veterans. Some of those guys (OCab and Kearns, 2010 model) have netted us decent returns in deadline deals but the others have just sucked resources from the Indians and blocked minor leaguers getting their Constanza-like chances.
So, let's let the Jose Constanzas of the world be contributors to other teams' pennant races and let's keep bringing in AAAA guys to staff our bench. Yeah, that makes sense and it has worked soooooo well in the recent past.
There is certainly no future in AAAA guys while Constanza has some upside. And now we are determining what I have known for a long time, that, many times, the present for a poorly scouted rookie is also better than the present for a washed up AAAA guy.
Future maybe better, present better. Check.
We should have brought up Head, Goedert, Judy and Putnam (or Chen) when I suggested. We should have traded Joe Smith.
When will we stop making these kinds of mistakes and have the guts (albeit potentially ill-placed guts, time will tell) that Antonetti had in obtaining Jimenez?
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Joe Smith, what could have been
We should have traded Joe Smith in July. His value was the highest of his career and, most likely, the highest value in his entire ML life, no matter how long that is. C'mon, if we wanted a side-arming righty we had Chen Lee who is banging on the door.
Now Smith has exploded a 5-0 lead, his second outing in the last 3 when he has given up a run. His value has certainly shrunk to 2010 levels, meaning he is worthless, as, at this time of the year, it is all about what have you done lately that determines trade value..
They should have traded him on July 31st when his ERA was 1.10. His value was high but the Indians obviously thought he was important. He could have brought a piece back that meant something. Instead, now we will live with this performance.
He should have brought us back Allen Craig. Instead, he brought us a loss tonight and, given his recent outings, may continue to help in the Indians fall in the Central Division.
When you choke and don't pull the trigger on an obvious sell high move, this is what you end up with. I shake my head, shrug my shoulders and roll my eyes. THIS is the Cleveland Indians I grew up with in the 70s and 80s.
BTW, it is August 7th, Jerad Head is still in Columbus and Austin Kearns is still in Cleveland. (Continues head shaking, eye rolling and shoulder shrugging).
Now Smith has exploded a 5-0 lead, his second outing in the last 3 when he has given up a run. His value has certainly shrunk to 2010 levels, meaning he is worthless, as, at this time of the year, it is all about what have you done lately that determines trade value..
They should have traded him on July 31st when his ERA was 1.10. His value was high but the Indians obviously thought he was important. He could have brought a piece back that meant something. Instead, now we will live with this performance.
He should have brought us back Allen Craig. Instead, he brought us a loss tonight and, given his recent outings, may continue to help in the Indians fall in the Central Division.
When you choke and don't pull the trigger on an obvious sell high move, this is what you end up with. I shake my head, shrug my shoulders and roll my eyes. THIS is the Cleveland Indians I grew up with in the 70s and 80s.
BTW, it is August 7th, Jerad Head is still in Columbus and Austin Kearns is still in Cleveland. (Continues head shaking, eye rolling and shoulder shrugging).
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'
Chris Perez and the Indians are still alive, barelystaying over the Atlanta Braves Line.
BTW, in case anyone is watching, Jerad Head with two doubles and a HR tonight. Hey, I haven't checked, but is Austin Kearns still on the Indians' roster. Cleveland, which is notorious for not giving minor leaguers a chance unless they are stud prospects and there are no other options (see Chris Coste as the prime example but everyone from Brian Giles to Ryan Church and even Jeremy Guthrie and Brandon Phillips who got small chances but not enough and IMMEDIATELY flourished elsewhere), will either wait until Head grows cold or until September to give him a chance while Mr. RBI (really bad and an idiot) continues to occupy a spot on our bench. As always, great PR by the Indians for their minor leaguers. Hey, I notice you brought back Argenis Reyes. Maybe they will give him a shot first.
BTW, in case anyone is watching, Jerad Head with two doubles and a HR tonight. Hey, I haven't checked, but is Austin Kearns still on the Indians' roster. Cleveland, which is notorious for not giving minor leaguers a chance unless they are stud prospects and there are no other options (see Chris Coste as the prime example but everyone from Brian Giles to Ryan Church and even Jeremy Guthrie and Brandon Phillips who got small chances but not enough and IMMEDIATELY flourished elsewhere), will either wait until Head grows cold or until September to give him a chance while Mr. RBI (really bad and an idiot) continues to occupy a spot on our bench. As always, great PR by the Indians for their minor leaguers. Hey, I notice you brought back Argenis Reyes. Maybe they will give him a shot first.
At the crossroads
Well, it seems almost daily that we have to make a decision on whether we are buyers or sellers. So let's take a look:
Buyer: Allen Craig went 3-3 last night deep into his rehab. He should be brought up soon. This makes him our prime trade target. Again, I think Joe Smith would do it for a 27 year old who doesn't have a defensive position he is good at and isn't really needed by his current team. He is a bat first guy but, on this team, that is what is needed. Maybe we throw Shelly Duncan in as he is more valuable in the NL than the AL, IMO.
Seller: Kearns, Durbin and Hannahan should be gone, Shelly Duncan should be traded and Herrmann should be sent down. We have covered that. Judy, Chen (or Putnam), Head and Goedert should come up. One of the funniest things I read on a forum today is when someone tried to minimize Judy by calling him a "C" prospect. Comical and somewhat pathetic, actually. He is much more than that, being Pestano-like with more consistency right now. Not a closer yet but a guy with solid 8th inning skills.
So, in our daily visit at the crossroads, we are just where we were a month ago: buyers of younger guys, sellers of older guys, and bringers up of minor league guys who are ready for a shot instead of mortgaging the future for a run at the pennant that could be staffed in-house.
Buyer: Allen Craig went 3-3 last night deep into his rehab. He should be brought up soon. This makes him our prime trade target. Again, I think Joe Smith would do it for a 27 year old who doesn't have a defensive position he is good at and isn't really needed by his current team. He is a bat first guy but, on this team, that is what is needed. Maybe we throw Shelly Duncan in as he is more valuable in the NL than the AL, IMO.
Seller: Kearns, Durbin and Hannahan should be gone, Shelly Duncan should be traded and Herrmann should be sent down. We have covered that. Judy, Chen (or Putnam), Head and Goedert should come up. One of the funniest things I read on a forum today is when someone tried to minimize Judy by calling him a "C" prospect. Comical and somewhat pathetic, actually. He is much more than that, being Pestano-like with more consistency right now. Not a closer yet but a guy with solid 8th inning skills.
So, in our daily visit at the crossroads, we are just where we were a month ago: buyers of younger guys, sellers of older guys, and bringers up of minor league guys who are ready for a shot instead of mortgaging the future for a run at the pennant that could be staffed in-house.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Well, that was crushing!
The Indians loss to Texas tonight was the most crushing of the season. I know other losses have been bad but, with Detroit winning and the Indians losing two walkoffs in Boston and Jimenez looking pretty human instead of looking like an ace AFTER we had to wait for him to pitch an extra five days or so, this loss was the worst of the season, especially when we led 6-1 and 7-2 with our new ace on the mound. Yeah, he was pitching out of his normal rotation so we can cut him so slack. But, still, it brings up all the questions about whether he is regressing to the mean or is hurting.
And bringing up Shelly Duncan? Unless it is to showcase him in a trade with Joe Smith to get a decent prospect, Jerad Head, who, BTW, hit HIS 20th HR tonight, should have been called up. Duncan and Joe Smith should be traded.
BTW, Jared Goedert had two more hits tonight and remains hot. He should be up here right now to provide some offense.
And bringing up Shelly Duncan? Unless it is to showcase him in a trade with Joe Smith to get a decent prospect, Jerad Head, who, BTW, hit HIS 20th HR tonight, should have been called up. Duncan and Joe Smith should be traded.
BTW, Jared Goedert had two more hits tonight and remains hot. He should be up here right now to provide some offense.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
It's August 4th and.....
...the Indians are about to cross the Atlanta Braves Line. What is the Atlanta Braves Line, you ask? Well, we have the Mendoza line for hitters (below .200 for a really bad hitter. I thought I would create a line for mediocrity and, for that matter, the ability to contend for a playoff spot (I don't believe any team in baseball has ever made the playoffs with a losing record). Well, some early morning looking led me to find out that, all-time, the Atlanta Braves, in 20,011 games, are 10.009 and 10,002. Thus they are the penultimate .500 team. Others are close but no other franchise has this middle of the road covered like Atlanta does, not even the Indians. Well, the Indians, on the season, now stand at 54-54 and are on the edge of dropping below the Atlanta Braves line for the 2011 season for the first time since the first couple of games in April. Oh, BTW, if the season ended today the Indians would have the 16th worst record in baseball (currently tied for 16th worst with the Mets and and the Marlins but the Indians get the nod due to their worse record last year). That means, if the season ended right now AND if, this coming off-season, they signed a Type A free agent who had been offered arbitration, they would have to give up their first round draft pick. Note that if they move 'up' to the 15th worst record and the same scenario applied, they would only have to give up their second round draft pick, which, last year, was the 75th overall pick. Biiiiiig difference. Not sayin', just sayin'.
...Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin and Jack Hannahan are still with the Cleveland Indians. In the meantime Jerad Head's hit homeruns in 4 straight games. Not to say he would have done that in Cleveland but the point is that he is hot right now so whatever production we could optimistically expect from Jerad Head, he is most likely to give it to us right about now. In addition, Putnam, Chen and Judy are pitching well and Jared Goedert's numbers keep steadily heading north.
...Joe Smith is still a member of the Cleveland Indians. Look, compete or not compete, Joe Smith is not going to be a difference maker. But if you thought Orlando Cabrera brought a good return, I think Joe Smith can bring a better return. Truly we need to trade this guy right now. He has never had more value and is eminently replaceable as he slots into a strength in the Indians' system. TRADE JOE SMITH. If you can trade him for Allen Craig of the Cardinals (the guy I have been on for over two months) do it now! It will be a deal that makes a huge positive difference for the Indians in the next two years.
---the Indians are starting to sign low round draft choices for pretty good money (Ryan Merritt, JUCO kid with mediocre JUCO stats, for $150,000). This is pretty scary to me, actually. While I LOVE signing draft choices the Indians did not put themselves in a position to sign lower round choices who have high upside. After the excellent selections of Francis Lindor and Dillon Howard, both of whom are high upside guys who, as HS players, have an inherently HUGE chance to crash and burn, (read: typical high risk, high reward prospects) the Indians went for lowly rated (read: CHEAP) prospects for most of the rest of the draft. To put it in perspective, after the second round, their best draft prospect is a kid named Dillon Peters who they selected in the 20th round. Mr. Peters is a highly rated left-handed HS pitcher from Indianapolis who dropped in the draft due to signability issues. Sounds good so far, right? The problem is that he is listed by the MLB and other websites as 5'9" and close to 200 pounds (some sites do list him as tall as 5'11"). Now, that sounds more like the nose guard on my HS football team when I was a kid than any pitching prospect that I have ever heard of. Yet he is highly rated (#104 by Baseball America) and fan forumites from various Indians' fan forums around the world are excited by this kid. Well, so am I. However, the Indians could have, and should have, drafted a dozen guys with the potential of Dillon Peters or even better before they got to Peters on whom they could shower money once they found out that most of their stud pitching riches in the minors walked out the door when Jimenez walked in. Those guys were certainly out there. So, now, in losing Pomeranz and White I think they are saying, 'OMG, our farm system took a big hit and now we need to re-stock'. Well, guys, you didn't draft to do put yourselves in a position to do that, the same thing that happened in 2008 and back in 2001 when, not being able to sign Alan Horne for $1 million plus, they spread that money around on three lower round, "C" rated picks who never came close to panning out. Face it, Indians, you ALWAYS draft for this type of scenario. If you can't sign the stud prospects later in the draft, fine. But drafting low end guys and guys with huge question marks and then overpaying for them the way you did in 2008...just throwing good money at very questionable prospects for the sake of spending money.
So sign Mr. Peters, please do. Every prospect helps and heaven knows he is BY FAR the best of the prospects from this draft after our first two picks. I am just saying that, whoever they sign after Lindor and Howard, they will have to WAY, WAY overpay for and will not likely get good value from...just in the name of 'Let's sign SOMEBODY'.
...Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin and Jack Hannahan are still with the Cleveland Indians. In the meantime Jerad Head's hit homeruns in 4 straight games. Not to say he would have done that in Cleveland but the point is that he is hot right now so whatever production we could optimistically expect from Jerad Head, he is most likely to give it to us right about now. In addition, Putnam, Chen and Judy are pitching well and Jared Goedert's numbers keep steadily heading north.
...Joe Smith is still a member of the Cleveland Indians. Look, compete or not compete, Joe Smith is not going to be a difference maker. But if you thought Orlando Cabrera brought a good return, I think Joe Smith can bring a better return. Truly we need to trade this guy right now. He has never had more value and is eminently replaceable as he slots into a strength in the Indians' system. TRADE JOE SMITH. If you can trade him for Allen Craig of the Cardinals (the guy I have been on for over two months) do it now! It will be a deal that makes a huge positive difference for the Indians in the next two years.
---the Indians are starting to sign low round draft choices for pretty good money (Ryan Merritt, JUCO kid with mediocre JUCO stats, for $150,000). This is pretty scary to me, actually. While I LOVE signing draft choices the Indians did not put themselves in a position to sign lower round choices who have high upside. After the excellent selections of Francis Lindor and Dillon Howard, both of whom are high upside guys who, as HS players, have an inherently HUGE chance to crash and burn, (read: typical high risk, high reward prospects) the Indians went for lowly rated (read: CHEAP) prospects for most of the rest of the draft. To put it in perspective, after the second round, their best draft prospect is a kid named Dillon Peters who they selected in the 20th round. Mr. Peters is a highly rated left-handed HS pitcher from Indianapolis who dropped in the draft due to signability issues. Sounds good so far, right? The problem is that he is listed by the MLB and other websites as 5'9" and close to 200 pounds (some sites do list him as tall as 5'11"). Now, that sounds more like the nose guard on my HS football team when I was a kid than any pitching prospect that I have ever heard of. Yet he is highly rated (#104 by Baseball America) and fan forumites from various Indians' fan forums around the world are excited by this kid. Well, so am I. However, the Indians could have, and should have, drafted a dozen guys with the potential of Dillon Peters or even better before they got to Peters on whom they could shower money once they found out that most of their stud pitching riches in the minors walked out the door when Jimenez walked in. Those guys were certainly out there. So, now, in losing Pomeranz and White I think they are saying, 'OMG, our farm system took a big hit and now we need to re-stock'. Well, guys, you didn't draft to do put yourselves in a position to do that, the same thing that happened in 2008 and back in 2001 when, not being able to sign Alan Horne for $1 million plus, they spread that money around on three lower round, "C" rated picks who never came close to panning out. Face it, Indians, you ALWAYS draft for this type of scenario. If you can't sign the stud prospects later in the draft, fine. But drafting low end guys and guys with huge question marks and then overpaying for them the way you did in 2008...just throwing good money at very questionable prospects for the sake of spending money.
So sign Mr. Peters, please do. Every prospect helps and heaven knows he is BY FAR the best of the prospects from this draft after our first two picks. I am just saying that, whoever they sign after Lindor and Howard, they will have to WAY, WAY overpay for and will not likely get good value from...just in the name of 'Let's sign SOMEBODY'.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Ubaldo trade recap
Well, it has all begun to sink in. We have Ubaldo Jimenez. Here is my take:
· Ubaldo is an ace. Face it, people, if healthy this guy will be better than any pitcher the Indians have had in the last 10 years NOT named CC Sabathia. Yes, better than Cliff Lee even in his Cy Young year!
· Drew Pomeranz has command issues. Face it, it was the knock on him when he was drafted and he still has them.
· Alex White has a bad finger and it was never clear he was going to be able to stay as a starter in the big leagues.
· Matt McBride is old and hasn’t proven he can hit in AAA. If he changes some things he may, yet, be a B prospect.
· Joe Gardner had a flash-in-the-pan year last year and, while he is the sleeper of the deal and I would have LOVED to (and think we should have) gotten a similar sleeper back, we obviously decided to include him.
I am a prospect guy and this trade works for me EXCEPT for one aspect:
I really, really, really believe that if you are going to do a deal like this you need to understand all aspects of it. I don’t believe Antonetti did. In an interview after the trade he said that he was going to have to contact MLB about the nature of the option in terms of timeframe for Jimenez to say that he wasn’t going to allow the Indians to pick up that option. I mean, shouldn’t you KNOW this? Also, shouldn’t you at least have inquired about whether you could talk to Ubaldo about him waiving his right to void this out in the contract BEFORE you traded for him?
You see, most fans now understand that this is all about “THE WINDOW”. You get your players together and you go for it when you feel you have the critical mass of talent to compete for the playoffs and post-season success. 2 ½ years of Ubaldo gives us a much narrower window than you would think and, although mathematically it doesn’t make sense, 3 ½ years is a MUCH bigger window. You see, if you have great talent you might have one bad year with injuries out of three. You might have one year where you are knocked out by some upstart team that has all its stars aligned and that should happen, at the most, one out of 4 years. So, on average, even if everything conspires against you, if your talent is the best in your division you should be able to make the playoffs once every 3 years, minimum, twice out of 3 years some of the time, and every one of three consecutive years infrequently...unless you change those odds by adding new pieces to change the balance once again. The Indians did this in the 90s, constantly changing the balance until they ran out of resources (i.e., they maxed out their payroll and emptied their farm system because they didn't pay enough attention to keeping that system stocked with stud prospects). Their only flaw was not having a backup plan (no pipeline of minor leaguers, no exit plan for aging veterans by using deadline deals to re-stock their farm system), which they could have easily done if they had just spent a few more million on the draft each year. Let's hope they learn their lesson this time. Now, back to the topic at hand..
If you discount this year the Indians are asking for their talent to win for them at least once and maybe twice in two years. The odds are against that happening, even if they had all the talent they need.
And they don’t. Their offense is WOEFUL. They have done nothing to address that. And what makes people think that Grady is not now a .220 hitter? I harken back to Mark McGwire, whose leg problems knocked him out of baseball and his saying, ‘When you don’t have a foundation (read: solid legs), you can’t hit.’ Maybe Grady comes back strong next year, maybe not. Choo should be solid next year and Brantley, Chisenhall and Kipnis should settle in. However, NONE of those guys hit righthanded. We need to address that issue.
We have all of about two weeks to address it for this year and then it is all up to chance after that…unless we do something amazing in the off-season and unless Jimenez wants his option picked up.
Crazy, you say? Maybe, but it's something to think about, isn't it?
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