THE STRETCH RUN
Twitter is figuring out how difficult it is to catch teams that are even a little in front of you or hold off teams that are a little behind you when both of those types of teams have easier schedules. The goal was to beat teams like the Mets and Royals to build up a little lead to put the pressure on teams like the White Sox and the Blue Jays.
So, the Guardians need to take care of their own business and look for help from other teams to make the playoffs. It's not a desperate situation yet but every loss, and there will be some, will be like a dagger to their playoff chances.
So it starts today against the Orioles who are likely done in terms of making the playoffs just because of the number of teams in front of them for the 3rd wildcard. The problem is that there is still a glimmer of hope, with a HUGE dose of desperation. So, it would really help if we win the first game. However, while winning this series would probably remove any doubt about the Orioles being in the playoffs, it would also put them into getting-ready-for-nest-year mode meaning they would be less likely to beat the Blue Jays in the SIX remaining games they have with them. Can you say double edged sword?
So it becomes as proceed to Minneapolis this weekend. Next week has a double dose of critical games (White Sox) and MORE critical games (Athletics) which end our home schedule. Yeah, the CWS series is important but if we don't win 3 games we don't make up much ground. We will be fortunate to win 2 of 3 from the White Sox meaning we will need help to win the series. Going 2-1 against Chicago, assuming we can take care of business this week, means that a sweep against the A's is crucial next weekend.
And so on...
RALPHY
Anyone who thinks a miracle will occur and we will go on a hot offensive streak in these last 18 games is not seeing what is going on. DeLauter out for an indeterminate amount of time, Jose being debilitated as he recovers from hamate bone surgery and Adell and James looking more human is not a good recipe. If you don't believe that we continue to be in trouble offensively remember that we NEVER led in any of the games against Detroit...until we walked off each of our 3 victories. We didn't jump out early and we were always playing catchup against one of the worst teams in baseball right now and, remember, it's not WHO you play, it's how they are playing at that moment.
So, we need offensive help. We need a jolt. We need Ralphy. Is he the answer? Who knows. But right now Lowe is not the answer and, in fact, he is crack cocaine to Vogt, something none of us need when we just weened Vogt off of Hoskins.
There is no reason not to promote Ralphy. Keep him off the 40 a year before he has to be added? Allow him to play in the minors if there is a strike? He still has holes in his game? There are arguments against all those arguments, but the only important argument is will he help us win games we wouldn't have won if we DIDN'T promote him? Frankly, I can't see how any fan or Cleveland Guardians employee could say anuthing but YES.
Reading the first section of this post should tell you that this is EXACTLY the level of desperation, i.e.,, we're not quite at desperation levels yet, when we benefit the most by his promotion.
MINOR LEAGUE SEASONS WINDING DOWN
This is always the tough time of year for us prospect geeks. Our minor league teams, one by one, are ending their seasons. But there are rays of sunshine from this year that should keep us warm all winter:
1. The 2025 college hitter draft is producing some exciting results. Not ready to change my rating on this draft but one thing is for sure: LaViolette, Schubart, Walton, Curley and Hill are exciting hitters. Add in the breakout year by Cesarini and the mini-breakout year by Bennett Thompson and the renewed prospect status of Jason Churio, and we have a lot to dream on. Still too many Ks, still some questionable defense and maybe a lot of tweener guys aside, these guys were FUN to watch and I look forward to more next year. We can no longer say that these guys were just beating up on younger competition. If they continue on the steep part of their development curve we could have some really good ML players come out of that draft. Sprinkle in our other young guys in AAA and the majors and our hitters in this organization are on a HUGE upswng.
2. The Guardians have a recent habit of putting their college draft choices in low A Hill City in their draft year or, for lower round picks, in their first full season. These guys don't always dominate, raising immediate red flags. But this year, these guys ARE performing. So, given the 2025 draft class, there is more hope for the 2026 college hitter class than I previously thought. Still don't like that draft but I am at least willing to admit that the Guardians may, in some cases, indeed be the smartest guys in the draft room. Time will tell.
3. International amateur free agents - Look, the Guardians tend to spread their money around in signing amateur international free agents. This year we are starting to see the advantage of that strategy. Dauri Fernandez, Junker Caceras, Reiner Herrera and even the recently traded Alejandro Rivera have already had success in the US minor leagues. And I don't want to forget about Robert Arias. He suffered a severe leg injury this year but before that, he was looking, to me, like a very easy top 100 prospect in baseball. As he works through his rehab, I still feel that next year he could continue the breakout that he started this year and by next September at this time, we could be dreaming on his potential. Swert Reinoso, although only a good prospect when signed in January 2026, is already looking like he might be a steal. So maybe even the hitters in the lower minors may be pushing their way to the top of prospect lists.
4. Pitching black hole - Look, everyone knows how genius the 2021 college pitcher draft turned out to be. 2022 was no different as Messick and Campbell look like top shelf pitchers. However, after the 2nd round in 2022 the Guardians, inexplicably, stopped drafting top college pitchers. This has created a black hole in our farm system and, frankly, I don't know where our replacements will be coming from on the pitching front. Braylon Doughty looks very, very solid but that is about it. Looking at the 2026 minor league stats, Cleveland's draft strategy has left the cupboard bare of pitching prospects and that could come back to bite us. So we will need some developmental miracles to get any pitching out of our system outside of Doughty. Let's hope it happens.
4. No playoffs...thankfully. While breeding winning is more essential in the minor leagues than some people say it is, minor league playoffs are not necessary. In fact, they provide the exact type of mirage stats and performances that create false hope. Joey Oakie's dominance as a very young pitcher at Hill City at the end of last year gave the impression that he was on the fast tract. His uneven performance this year at that same level gave a more real impression of exactly who he was drafted to be: a kid with a great arm and work ethic who needed LOTS of polishing. It is no surprise that Doughty sprinted by Oakie. Except for the mirage created at the end of 2025, us prospect geeks would have never been fooled. So, minor league playoffs are cute but clearly, on any level, unnecessary, IMO.
It's Labor Day. There are 18 ML regular season games left for Cleveland. Go Guardians!!1!
