Well, it's draft day...and other things.

First, thanks to the United Arab Emirates.   The thousands of you who hit up this blog the other day was impressive...and puzzling.  

Second, the Indians' bullpen sucks, it was upper management's stinginess and shortsighted nature that is doing 3 things (a) Francona is burning out our star starting pitchers); (b) we are losing games and (c) we are about to panic and make crazy trades at the deadline to fix our bullpen problems, trades that will likely cripple our player development system significantly.   If you don't believe (c) one possible explanation for promoting Bieber so rapidly and getting Triston McKenzie to AA in a hurry is to showcase these guys, dangling them as tradebait later on.  

Finally, and the subject of this post, today is the first day of the amateur player draft.    As the Indians are drafting 29th in the first round and draft day is so fluid, there is a chance that the Indians will have a player fall to them they didn't think would be available.  That's about all you can say at this point as anyone who thinks they can predict who the Indians will pick with the 29th pick really doesn't get the baseball draft.

So let's look at who the Indians NEED to draft.   Yes, NEED.   Again, anyone who says that teams shouldn't draft for need just doesn't get the realities of small market baseball.  Yes, if you draft redundancies for positions already strong in your farm system you COULD always trade those extra assets, right?  Yeah, but the reality is you can only trade those guys for veterans, not prospects in other systems that are redundant to that system's strength.  So, in a small market club that tries to stuff its roster with quality, young, controllable, cheap players, drafting to your minor league depth strength is a bad idea in markets like Cleveland.   So, what do you do?

You draft to need.   Historically teams have followed strategies.   But if your strategy fails they try another strategy.   So let's take a look at the Indians' strategies and see how they have gone:

• Draft speedy guys and turn them into well-rounded players.   So far, Greg Allen (he of the classic 4th outfielder skills) is the best of what we got out of a number of such selections which include Silento Sayles and last year's top pick, Quentin Holmes.   I would say that we could safely say at this point that this strategy has failed and likely the Indians won't use this strategy much, if at all, in this draft.
• Draft high school hitters early.  While I like that idea the latest returns (Holmes, Benson, Jones, Ulysses Cantu, et al) haven't worked out as smashingly as we would like, making these guys more of long-term projects than guys who will fly through the minors and impact the ML team in the next few years. Expect them, at #29, to move away from that approach
• Draft pitchability guys knowing what they have a high floor and then trying to increase their ceiling (Adam Plutko, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale are good examples).  This strategy is in play in their early picks
• Draft left-handed hitting center fielders.   So far this hasn't worked out well as Naquin, Zimmer and even Allen haven't established themselves as even solid major league players, let alone as infrequent all-stars, the latter being what you are looking for from players drafted early.  We should and likely won't use this strategy.  
• Draft college pitchers and make them relievers.   While the success in the majors has not followed (think Shawn Armstrong) the success of the strategy is undeniable, based on the overachieving of the guys like this who we drafted.  Expect some of this, as well.
• Draft good "D" college catchers and turn them into good hitters.   Please, no more...ever.

In our farm system we have plenty of middle infielders, catchers, starting pitchers.   What we need  are right-handed hitting power-hitting outfielders, left-handed quality relievers, a close-in-training and middle relievers.  We also want guys who will move fast and maybe even get to the big leagues before our recent group of HS hitters and pitchers.  Thus, we will likely look at college hitters and pitchers with an occasional high school pitcher or two in the first 10 rounds, sprinkling in cheap college senior pitchers (no more catchers like Mike Rivera and Logan Ice, please)

With all this in play expect that the Indians will NOT draft the best available player at any point in the first 3 picks.  I expect them to draft for need which is fast-moving college hiters and college pitchers with a little power to their game but who fill up the strikezone.   Plus, we need a closer in training.  Given what I know about this draft here are some guys I expect them to choose from.  Again, think low draft slots and guys might not be available here but we know what we need (college players:  outfielders who can move quickly and pitchability pitchers who can do the same, beating the closing of our 'window')

#29 - I would like to see the Indians get a RH hitting college outfielder here but I doubt it happens as most would be gone or be overdrafts (Tristan Pompey, for example) at this slot.  Some good LH hitting outfielders could be available and I see them taking Walker Steele if he is available.  He should move fast through the system and get to the majors in time to help while some of the current ML Indians are still with the club.

#35 - Tristan Pompey, RH hitting OF, Kentucky.  Good power and he will move quickly through the system. 

#41 - Seth Beer OF Clemson - He is a prototypical college power hitter.   The only thing against him for me is that hits LH.  Aside from that, if he is here at 41 (which I doubt) the Indians should grab him.  Otherwise, draft a polished college pitcher who can be turned into a closer or is a closer already.

#67 - Here is where you hope that a solid college pitcher falls to them.  If not, look for them to take  RHP Tristan Beck from Stanford and try to sign him for a little under slot.  Or, if they find a gem who has fallen, they could choose a HS pitcher here and live with him not being ready for a while.   IF they do, you might see them overdraft a guy because he is a LH pitcher.

In the rest of the top 10 rounds look for them to take college seniors and pitchability college juniors like Eli Morgan.   A few could be LH pitchers.

After the first 10 rounds look for them to stay in form and draft a few HS flyers  and mostly college hitters and pitchers as organizational players who may be able to become serviceable ML players or, in the case of the pitchers, overachievers down the road.