Where are we with the draft?

OK.   Let's start by saying that the draft is only as good as the scouts/analytics/dumb luck/smart luck that goes into it.     So, you can never know how good a draft is.   For many years I have looked at various rankings and done mock drafts to see if I can do it better than the Indians.   If you look back through this blog you will know that I can't.  

So, the only questions I have about any Indians' draft are:

a. Did the Indians draft a significant number of highly touted prospects?
b. Did they allocate their bonus pool to get talent as good or better than their draft slots?
c. Did they have enough left over to sign any sleepers?

Looking at the draft right now I think they accomplished a and b.   We will find out about c. in the next few days.

Look, to make this draft a homerun they had to sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds.  They did that.

To make it a two-run homer they needed to sign all the college guys in rounds 11-40 who were college juniors and seniors and a few HS and juco guys.   They did that.

To make this draft a three run dinger or a grand salami they also needed to sign some or all of Korey Holland, Antoine Duplantis and Kaleb Hill.

Looking at the bonus numbers here is what we have:

Amount over the Indians' bonus pool that they have spent so far:  $210,660
Amount they have left to spend to get up to 5% over their bonus pool: $246,540

Now, we may save some money if we can lowball Kwan but, at the most, we are looking AT MOST having $300,000 left to spend over budget.   If you look at it for one player that means that we can offer that guy around $400,000 (remaining excess plus the $125,000 we can spend on that spot).

When you look at those numbers, Duplantis is the only guy of the three that I think we have a good chance to sign.   Now, if I could get Holland for $400,000 I take him over Duplantis.   Ditto for Hill.   My reasoning is that getting a quality HS guy is always better than getting a quality college guy, everything else being equal.  More upside and, in rounds 11-40, you want upside over present value.

So we have a few days left but right now be looking to see if we sign one or more of Duplantis, Hill and Holland.  This draft is good right now based on the criteria above.   If we sign any of these three it just gets better.  And, for a small market club, a grand slam draft is the best you can hope for.