Wrestling with the 40 man roster and other things

 Other things first:

Eddie Rosario trade: We saved about $2,200,000 and gave away Rosario.   Salary dump

Myles Straw trade: You have to ask yourself why the Astros would trade a quality ML centerfielder for Phil Maton and a low A catcher (Yainer Diaz) that the Astros would have to roster this year.   Aside from that elephant in the room question, this looks like a good trade.   We were going to need to find a home for Diaz as no way can you roster a 22 year old catcher in low A ball.  That's assuming you think he would have been drafted in the Rule 5.  I have my doubts but even if we did keep him, it is tough to roster a guy who might run out of options before he gets to the majors the first time.  This will cost us to lose one of Johnson, Mercado or Zimmer to waivers this off-season., I guess.  Still, a win for the Indians.

Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield - This is a win for Tampa.   They give up a AA pitcher who is not even on their top 50 prospects and get a guy back in Luplow who might win them a game or two down the stretch, hitting against tough lefthanders.  The Indians get another college starter, albeit this one, unlike Pilkington, doesn't have to be rostered after this season.  I think if you did a study of guys ranked from 20-30 in an organization's top prospects very few make the majors.   What happens if they are not even ranked.  Battenfield is a suspect, a filler, until proven otherwise.

The Hernandez trade keeps getting better.   Do you realize that now that the White Sox got Hernandez for nothing, they turned around and traded Nick Madrigal as the centerpiece for Kimbrell.   So the Hernandez trade netted them not only Hernandez but allowed them to get Kimbrell, as well.   And we got Konnor Pinkington.  Yeah, in the best interested of the team.   BTW, another $1.8 million saved.  

Still waiting to here how we spent the other $150,000 of our draft budget.

40-man roster issues

I made two lists.  Players who should be on the 40-man roster this winter and players who will be competing for the remaining few spots on the 40-man roster this winter.

Locks - guys currently on the 40-man roster

1. Shane Bieber

2. Aaron Civale

3. Emmanuel Clase

4. Sam Hentges

5. James Karinchak

6. Triston McKenzie

7. JC Mejia

8. Zach Plesac

9. Cal Quantrill

10. Nick Sandlin

11. Roberto Perez

12.Gabe Arias

13. Bobby Bradley

14. Andres Gimenez

15. Nolan Jones

16. Jose Ramirez

17. Amed Rosario

18. Josh Naylor

19. Franmil Reyes

20. Myles Straw

Guys not on the 40 man now but virtual locks

21. Joey Cantillo - Even though he was hurt this year he was a valuable part of the Clevinger trade.   They won't expose him to the Rule 5

22. Konnor Pinkington - Can you imagine losing this guy in the Rule 5 after trading Hernandez

23. Bryan Lavastida

24. Tyler Freeman

25. Johnkensy Noel - In low minors but power and athleticism are so compelling you can't leave him unprotected.  Think Anthony Santander. 

26. Richie Palacios

27. Brayan Rocchio

28. George Valera - He is so low in the minors that he might not even get his first cup of coffee until 2023, after we burned his second option. More likely it would be sometime in 2024, when we would have burned all three of his options.  That's for his first taste, not getting to the majors for good

29/ Oscar Gonzalez - He looks too good to not roster.  Maybe that changes after the rest of the AAA season but I doubt it.

So, we need to fill 11 spots.   

Virtual Locks 

30. Carlos Vargas - Currently on the roster so almost a lock

31. Eli Morgan - ditto

32. Trevor Stephen

33. Harold Ramirez

That's 33.  So we have 7 left to place on the 40.   If we don't remove any other young player from the current 40-man we have this.

34. Owen Miller

35. Yu Chang

36. Bradley Zimmer

37. Oscar Mercado

38. Daniel Johnson

39. Ernie Clement

40. Logan Allen

41. Scott Moss

42. Austin Hedges

43. Cam Hill

44. Justin Garza

45. Nick Wittgren

So, we would have to lose 5 players on this list to get down to 40.   All of those 5 would have to be DFA'd, I think.  I mean, we didn't even want to give up on Jake Bauers.   How much do you think the FO wants to give up on 5 (or more, see below) of these guys and get nothing for them?

Guys still on the outside looking in:

Cody Morris

Will Benson

Jose Tena

Franciso Perez

Jose Fermin

Alexfri Planez

Juan Mota

Jerson Ramirez

Shane McCarthy

Adam Scott

Steve Kwan 

Trenton Brooks

Jonathon Rodriguez

Aaron Pinto

Connor Marabell

Steve Kwan

Dakody Clemmer

These guys would have to be rostered or risk being taken in the Rule 5.  Of these you would like to protect the first 4 although Mota and Jerson Ramirez are risks to be taken.

BOTTOM LINE:

So this is our dilemma.  If it was me our 40-man would look like this:

1. Shane Bieber

2. Aaron Civale

3. Emmanuel Clase

4. Sam Hentges

5. James Karinchak

6. Triston McKenzie

7. JC Mejia

8. Zach Plesac

9. Cal Quantrill

10. Nick Sandlin

11. Roberto Perez

12.Gabe Arias

13. Bobby Bradley

14. Andres Gimenez

15. Nolan Jones

16. Jose Ramirez

17. Amed Rosario

18. Josh Naylor

19. Franmil Reyes

20. Myles Straw

21. Joey Cantillo 

22. Konnor Pinkington

23. Bryan Lavastida

24. Tyler Freeman

25. Johnkensy Noel - 

26. Richie Palacios

27. Brayan Rocchio

28. George Valera 

29/ Oscar Gonzalez 

30. Carlos Vargas 

31. Eli Morgan

32. Trevor Stephen

33. Harold Ramirez

34. Owen Miller

35. Francisco Perez

36. Jose Tena

37. Will Benson

38. Jose Fermin

39. Cody Morris

40. Austin Hedges

The following guys would lose their roster spot and have to be DFA'd.  Some have enough service time that they wouldn't have to accept the demotion to the minors and are able to become free agents.  If any of these guys make it through waivers and are sent to the minor leagues they would all have to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

Ernie Clement 

Logan Allen

Scott Moss

Cam Hill

Justin Garza

Nick Wittgren

Yu Chang

Bradley Zimmer

Oscar Mercado

Daniel Johnson

Yu Chang

Bradley Zimmer

Oscar Mercado

Daniel Johnson

The following guys would have to be exposed to the Rule 5.

Alexfri Planez

Juan Mota

Jerson Ramirez

Shane McCarthy

Adam Scott

Steve Kwan 

Trenton Brooks

Jonathon Rodriguez

Aaron Pinto

Connor Marabell

Steve Kwan

Dakody Clemmer

You see the dilemma.   I could see 10 of these guys picked in the Rule 5.   Easily.    And some others like Wittgren and Zimmer might have enough service time to become free agents rather than go to the minors.

Plus our 40 msn then has an extreme number of guys  (10)who will not likely impact the ML team in 2022 as they will not have enough experience and/or will still be rehabbing from injury:

Joey Cantillo 

Konnor Pinkington

Bryan Lavastida

Tyler Freeman

Johnkensy Noel  

Richie Palacios

Brayan Rocchio

George Valera 

Oscar Gonzalez 

Carlos Vargas 

Plus, if that isn't enough pressure, our roster will be packed with prospects and we won't be able to add anyone in free agency without DFAing a true prospect.

This is a mess and it would require some nifty trading to get us out of this mess, turning 3 prospects into one ML-readyprospect.  

I have no faith our FO can pull this off.

But what do I know.

Liar or idiot or both

 It's simple.   Chris Antonetti is either an idiot or a liar.

1. I am making an assumption here.   The article in the PD says there wasn't a market for second baseman among contenders.  Well, the Giants have 33 year old journeyman Donovan Solano with his .672 OPS and two stolen bases playing second base.   I am pretty sure that the Giants could use an upgrade at second base.

2. "....we're happy to make a decision that is in our best interest."  This one could go either way.  The idiot or liar part, that is.  Two things here:

(a) The Indians are in deep trouble with their 40-man roster this year.   They will likely have to put guys on the 40-man this winter who won't help them next year but are likely candidates to get selected in the Rule 5 draft (and not returned) if the Indians don't roster them.  Frankly, they have no extra roster spots.

(b) Konnor Pilkington, who they got in the trade for Hernandez and who looks like Logan Allen part deux, has to be rostered this winter or we could lose him in the Rule 5, too.

(c) The Indians just drafted 18 college pitchers in this draft and so they are not in need of another college pitcher, especially one that isn't even good enough to be in the White Sox top 30 prospects.

The big question here is whether the Indians even knew that Pilkington has to be rostered this winter.   Given what we saw when the Indians gave Jake Bauers WAY too many chances to try to justify the really bad Yandy Diaz trade, Pilkington will be rostered this winter even though he may not deserve it, given who else the Indians have to roster.   No way will Antonetti allow himself to lose face by losing Pilkington in the Rule 5 draft after trading Hernandez for him.   Count on some guy who we really want to keep end up being lost in the Rule 5 due to rostering Pilkington.

 So, Antonetti lied about teams not needing second basemen.   He is a liar or an idiot for saying this trade was in the Indians best interest and he is an idiot for taking a pitcher who has to be rostered this winter into an organization that doesn't have any roster spots to waste and doesn't need any more college pitchers.  On top of that he is an idiot for trading Hernandez to the best team in the division.

We saved $1.8 million by trading Hernandez.   That is what this is really about.  That is on Dolan.  Not getting anything worth anything back for Hernandez is on Antonetti and Chernof.  This following the low return we got for Lindor/Carrasco tells me these guys are not doing their job when we are trading guys to cut budget.

Oh, BTW, any writer ask Antonetti why we over $150,000 left on our draft budget and what the plans were to spend the money to improve the organization which, of course, would be in the organization's "best interest".  Or what about the rumor that Toronto offered the Indians more than the Mets for Lindor?

Look, this is my team.   I have rooted for them for over 60 years.   These guys are not doing their jobs.  Nor is Dolan.   Anyone think that Tito jumped ship because he saw that?  You gotta ask yourself, right?

Another terrible trade made by the Indians

 The White Sox were struggling without Nick Madrigal.   They needed a second baseman.   A veteran.   Someone who could help them in the playoffs because that is where they are heading.

I get it.   That's what they need.  

The Indians weren't making the playoffs.   They needed to make room for Andres Gimenez.  

I get it.  That's what the Indians wanted to do.

But I will say this and I'd be willing to say it to Antonneti's  and Chernof's faces.

This was a TERRIBLE baseball trade.   They  traded a veteran second baseman, Gold Glove last year.   Career high in HR this year.  A guy that had a very reasonable option for next year, one without any buyout.  

Basically, if the White Sox wanted it, 1 1/2 seasons of veteran, good production.

We got back a guy who isn't even among the White Sox top 30 prospects.   Nowhere near it.  He is Mason Hickman.  No outstanding stuff.   Nothing to hang your hat on.  

This is the kind of guy who is a throw-in to a trade like this.  Not the trade package in and of himself.

At a time when freaking 7th inning relievers who are rentals are bringing back top 30 prospects and starting players are bringing back THREE top 30 prospects (Joey Gallo), we get a suspect, not a prospect but a suspect 

This is, by far, the worst trade these guys have ever made.   They needed to get something useful back and they got nothing.   They got robbed by a team in their division and they did not make their team better for next year or likely the year after that or maybe ever as the guy they got back is NOT a prospect.  

All they did was save a little money.   

This is the freaking trade deadline.  Teams pay dearly in prospects for guys who they want and even more dearly if those guys are controllable and reasonably priced for more than just this year.   That was Hernandez.

The problem with sports writers is that none of them wants to bite the hand that feeds them so they won't ask the tough questions.

But if one of them had the balls they should ask these losers why, in the face of what other teams are getting for lesser players and less controllable players why they got so little for Hernandez when they traded him to a division rival and one with a need.   And don't give me this crap of that is all the market would bring.   If that is the case you just hold onto Hernandez or trade him outside the division.

And while that sportswriter is at it, why not ask him about the widely accepted rumor that they could have gotten more for Lindor/Carrasco from Toronto than what they got from the Mets.   

So much for threading the needle.   These guys are idiots.  They are killing this team.   They need to do better than this.   WAY better.

Wednesday afternoon thoughts: Today's win, trade deadline stock changes, draft signing update, general thoughts

 Today's win!

Fun win today.   You don't have to have dominant starting pitching.   Just OK starting pitching, a little luck (Molina's drive) and a good bullpen.   Reyes leaving the building in the 2nd was fun..  Four HRs was fun.  Last 16 batters going down for the Cardinals was fun.   Splitting this series with St. Louis was perfect, having to face Wainwright and Kim.

What was not fun was watching Yu Chang swing at two different 3-0 pitches.   When you are hitting .180 your job is to take one for the team (see Bradley Zimmer's approach) not try to fatten your average against struggling pitchers.   See Ernie Clement for how baseball is supposed to be played.  On top of that, Chang always appears to be laughing.   Most of the time it is when he is not going well.   Hey, I don't want guys to be tight but, crap, man, break a bat over your thigh once in a while to let us know you really do care about hitting .180.  Oh, and stop hitting .180!

Trade Deadline Stock

To level set, we are one game over .500.   Look at our lineup and we are weak.   Look at the Cardinals lineup and they are not weak.   The Cardinals are likely to get Mikolas and Flaherty back before we get Beiber and Civale back.   The Cardinals should not be in sell mode.   The Indians should be in sell mode.  With that in mind, let's take a look at which way each guy's tradability stock is moving.

Moving up

Cesar Hernandez.   Not only is he historically solid his stats are trending up right now and he looks comfortable at the plate.

Staying Flat

Eddie Rosario.   He is still on the DL so no change there.

Austin Hedges.   He is solid but he is a backup catcher.   They are simply fungible assets that might get a trade partner make a deal if you pay the remainder of his salary this year.   But he isn't worth more than that.

Going Down

Bryan Shaw.   Exactly what his trade value didn't need was his Tuesday meltdown.   I am pretty sure he will be traded but his value is not what it was a week ago (maybe 75%).  Considering that the Cubs got a ML-ready outfielder in Greg Dsichmann and a mnor league throw-in pitcher for Andrew Chafin.   That is about the value (and probably the trade) I would have liked to see the Indians make for the two week ago version of Shaw.   Now it is questionable if we even get that much for him.

Nick Wittgren.  After his 9th inning meltdown over the weekend I just don't see how he has any value.   Pity.   About two weeks ago I thought he had some decent value in a trade, especially if included with one or more of the above guys.  One more thing.   Sorry Mr. Wittgren about the haters on the internet.  Even those of us mad or disappointed with you for your performance should never make it personal.  

Draft signing update

Still waiting to find out whether Jake Miller will sign.  A little movement on the draft budget as what was thought to be a slot signing in the later rounds turned out to be $25,000 over slot.   This still gives us a $154,800 surplus from our bonus pool.   We need to spend that money (hopefully in an effective way) by August 1st or it will go back into the general budget and probably be used to buy paper clicks and pay for the company Christmas party (tongue firmly place in cheek here, but you know what I mean).  C'mon guys, impress the fans and your bosses by finding a way to make our farm system better with that money before it evaporates from the draft budget.

General Thoughts

Should I be more excited about 21 year old Gabriel Arias performing well at AAA or 22 year old Jamie Arias Bautista performing well at low A Lynchburg?  How about 21 year old Bo Naylor struggling to keep his head above water at AA or 22 year old Yainer Diaz raking at low A?  The point here is that age matters and the Indians have agressively moved some guys up the organization this year, much to the detriment of their statistics.  So I am taking this year's statistics with a grain of salt and trying to factor in age and level into my thinking.   Thus I am not disappointed with Raynel Delgado and guys like that.   They struggle but they show flashes.   

I can't wait to see what Johnkensy Noel does every night.

Hope Owen Miller figures it out.   I think there is about to be an opening at second base on the Indians.

Oh well, time for some minor league baseball tonight

Indians raise white flag - how is the stock of our tradeable pieces changing?

 So, the Indians today put Aaron Civale on the 60-day DL, meaning he can't pitch for another month.   By then the season will be, essentially, over.   By that I mean that with the current rotation and schedule the Indians will not be able to win enough to stay in contention.   By the time Civale comes back they may be 10 games under .500.   

This is the final move that says to me that the Indians are giving up on this season as this move was 100% about Civale not being ready and 0% about the guy (Young) who we added to the roster.  

Thus, you can expect the Indians to be a big seller before the trade deadline.  That being said, let's take a look at how the value of our available trip chips has changed in the past week or so.  Note that any guy who I think could be (a) a part of next year's team (e.g., no Jose Ramirez trade) or (b) has zero trade value (e.g., Oscar Mercado and Daniel Johnson) or (c) isn't currently on the 26-man roster, isn't included below, except for Austin Hedges who we might be able to give away if we eat a decent percentage of his remaining salary.  

Cesar Hernandez - STOCK GOING UP - signed through this season with an option for next year.   I am not sure that the option is transferable to another team.   Hernandez's stock is going up with his performance against the Rays.   Teams in need of a second baseman can see how he can help them in the playoffs and, along with his performance last year (offensively and defensively)

Jordan Luplow - STOCK GOING UP - This is weird to say but Luplow does have minimal value in a trade.  His history against LHP could be value to a contender in a pennant race if for no other reason just the incremental advantage he has against lefties.   The fact that he is looking good on his rehab means he could be back up to the majors in a day or two and traded a day or two later, if his instant performance looks solid.

Harold Ramirez - STOCK GOING UP - Hey, I get it.  HRam has looked good in our outfield this year.   But that isn't hard to do given how bad our OF is.  Still, to a contender, his performance this year gives him significant value as he gets clutch hits and is a high energy guy.   Just the type of guy who could be responsible for your team winning a couple of crucial games down the stretch.  But as an Indians' OFer for next year and in the future?  He is a 4th outfielder on a contending team.   Maybe he improves but I don't think that he can change who he is at this point.   So turning him into a prospect in a trade is actually a great idea as this is the only time of year that teams will take a serious look at a guy like this.

Bryan Shaw -  - STOCK STAYING THE SAME -  He has pitched a lot, mostly effectively, but his percentage of failures have gone up recently so teams could be wary that he is not as effective as he appeared earlier in the year.   Still, looking at his body of work, he is a solid reliever for a contending team in need of relief help (and which contending team isn't in need of veteran relief help?

Eddie Rosario - STOCK STAYING THE SAME - Until Rosario gets back on the field he is damaged goods.   Still, to me he has a lot of worth   Solid offensive clutch hitter, Power potential still there.   Good clubhouse guy on a contender.

Nick Wittgren - STOCK GOING DOWN - Wittgren needed a solid performance this weekend and he didn't get it, giving up 5 in the 9th in a loss.  His value is almost non-existent now but maybe a contender will take a flyer on him and we could, as I have proposed, trade him for a little international bonus money.

Austin Hedges - LITTLE IF ANY TRADE VALUE - Hedges' salary and lack of offense makes his trade value zero.  I doubt if any contender wants to add him at this point so he will be here for the rest of the season, unfortunately,  Still, a team in need of a solid veteran backup catcher might be willing to take him off our hands if we eat 75% of his remaining salary.   Doing a deal like this might even be able to get us $50,000 in international bonus money.  

I have said this before but I will say it again here.   The best value the Indians can get for these guys is to package them together, eat some salary, and include receiving international bonus money in any deal they make.   My proposed trade to the Giants does that.   Hopefully the Indians will be able to make a trade like this and bring in some close to ML-ready talent into the majors.   

Thoughts for a Saturday night

 Just a few more pitches

Francona has, since he started managing the Indians, had this annoying habit of leaving his starters in too long.  However, in the last week it has really gotten bad.

Twice he left his starter in into the 5th inning even though these guys had struggled with traffic on the bases and pitch counts to get through the 4th.   Once it was into the 6th, pulling his starter after one batter only to have that runner score and today, leaving Mejia in into the 7th, even though he was decent through the 6th.   Again, one batter, Mejia is pulled, reliever comes in to give up that run. In all of these cases he had to go to the bullpen to finish the inning.

The question is, why is he burying these kids.   He claims he doesn't want to put players in a position that will harm their development.  Yet he does this with his pitchers.  AND IT NEVER WORKS OUT. 

I just don't get it.  It is one of his few Achilles heels as a manager.  He needs to clean that up.   When I can watch a game and see this is going to happen, he should, too.

Excess draft pool money and what to do with it

Right now we have, on paper, almost $104,000 unspent draft bonus money.   Assuming that we don't use it all to sign Jake Miller or haven't already used it to sign a few of the 11-20 round guys we don't have bonus numbers for, here are a couple of guys who went undrafted that we might want to think about signing:

Jonathon Cooper, RHP, Georgia - probably out of our price range but wanted to lead with him.

Will Frisch RHP Oregon State - Again, I don't know if $225,000 would do it but you never know

There are probably a number of JUCO guys or guys playing in Cape Cod or other summer leagues who may be interested in signing for 9th round money.   Too tired to look for them but, if we have excess, they may be out there.

The Jake Bauers effect

Guys gettting on our nerves who keep hanging on with a good performance or two.   This applies to both Oscar Mercado and Daniel Johnson.  They just keeping doing just enough to make you think they are about to bust out.  You don't want those guys doing good things after you release them, so you give them too many chances.   Really hits home when you are playing Tampa and Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz and Louis Head are beating your brains out.  I get it.   But, damn, can't those guys just perform here so we don't have to play bad players or watch our bad players get good somewhere else?

Indians draft signings so far - 7/26 Update

We now know all the guys the Indians have signed and what they signed for, thanks to MLB.com.

If I do my math right we currently have a $187,500 surplus if you subtract what we paid these guys from their draft slot values.

There have been no reports that we signed Jake Miller (20th)

Analysis so far:  We have $187,500 left from our bonus pool.   The Indians, since the inception of the bonus slotting system, have never had more than $10,000 left from a bonus pool.   So, what will happen with the rest of this bonus pool?

Three scenarios about what the Indians will do with this leftover money:

• They may use a little of it to sign our 20th round pick, Jake Miller, although only the part of his bonus OVER $125,000 would count against our draft pool total.  My guess is, at the most, you are looking at a $175,000 bonus meaning, worst case, we would STILL have a $137,500 surplus.
• They can still sign guys who weren't drafted.   They still get $125,000 to sign each one and anything over that goes against their draft pool.  If you anticipate that they have the entire $187,500 left over, they will have over $300,000 left to spend without going over their pool budget.   This is beginning of 6th round money, meaning they might still be able to get a pretty good prospect.  Looking at the undrafted players left after the draft here are guys who they might be able to entice with that amount of money
• Troy Melton, RHP San Diego St.
• Dylan Ross, RHP, juco pitcher
• Nick Maldanado, RHP Vanderbilt
• Seth Stephenson, juco SS
• Jaelen Battle, Arkansas SS

...and, of course, a whole slew of highly rated HS players who likely already have solid college commitments that this kind of money won't move the needle for them to sign.

• They could just keep the money and not use it on the draft.  Remember, it can't be carried over to next year or added to our international spending budget.

One word about not spending the money.  Baseball's player development system is a lot like the R&D budget at a company.  Most of that budget ends up being wasted on projects that don't work out.  Still, R&D is the lifeblood for new products at many companies, especially small companies...and the player development systems of many (especially small budget) major league teams.   Not spending part of your draft budget is like a company taking a portion of their R&D budget and putting it in their general budget.  It just doesn't allow you company to grow effectively.   If the Indians don't spend close to their draft budget it is a bad sign.   So, somehow, some combination of the first and second bullets above is what SHOULD happen.   Let's hope it does.   

Stay tuned.  I will update this post as I learn more about where the missing surplus has been spent or if it is going to go unspent.  

I just turned the game off

 Not that anyone cares.   MLB.com already has my money for the year.

But I am not watching this crap.   First last night with Johnson screwing up two plays and Karinchak giving the game away.

Then tonight with the little league 3-run homer in the second after the ill-advised throw by Mercado and the various errors along the way.

Look, when you suck as a major league hitter you better freakin' play defense.   These guys are professionals of MULTIPLE years.  They should do better than that.  

It was bad enough that they had a broken bat and a seeing eye ground ball.   That just means it may not be your night.  But this crap defense by guys who are lucky to be wearing an Indians' uniform is just pathetic and should not be allowed.   Send these guys back to the minors and bring up Nolan Jones.   At least when Jones screws up we are building for the future.   Let Johnson and Mercado spend the rest of the season thinking about it as bring everyone up but them for the rest of the season.

What's in a name and the robber barons of baseball

 The Cleveland Guardians!

When the name was announced I said to myself 'Now there's a name that won't offend or scare anyone, won't have intellectual property issues and I can see the possibility of having a cool-looking mascot and diverse merchandising possibilities.

Basically, its name designed to maximize the profitability for the shareholders.   Now, like every business name change, there is a backstory developed (or somewhat inherent) in the new name.   The same is true in this case, if you really believe that a couple of statues on the Hope Memorial Bridge are enough to drive the name of a major sports franchise.

Now, don't get me wrong.   In two years or maybe less, people will forget about the Cleveland Indians and associate the name with the sports franchise.   Seamless transition.  I have seen it in business multiple times in my career.

So here's to the Cleveland Guardians.  May the new name usher in 20+ years of World Series' titles, playoff appearances for this team and HOF inductees going in as Cleveland Indians...uh...Cleveland Guardians. [NOTE: If this comes to pass will our heroes have the old Cleveland logo on the cap on their bronze busts be the past or the future logo of the Cleveland baseball team?  Something to think about].

The robber barons of baseball

In the late 1800s there were a group of rich men known as the robber barons.  Because they had the cash they could buy up property, businesses, inventory, whatever, for pennies on the dollar from people or companies who needed the cash.   The goal was typically capitalistic: make a profit in ways that were, on paper, legal.   Of course, at the expense of the sellers.  

This tradition is still ingrained in the psyches of Americans.   Get a distressed property at a huge discount, charge triple the normal rate when someone's pipe breaks on a weekend and, of course, make a one-sided baseball trade.    

I get it in towns like New York where this cutthroat practice is part of history.   When I see trades proposed by New York blog or media writers I laugh.   Just like the MLB.com article I wrote about yesterday that described how we should trade Jose Ramirez for pennies on the dollar just because we needed to get rid of him before he left for free agency.  I get it.  But yesterday took this to a whole new level. 

There I am, about to sit down to watch the Indians game and I see that Tampa Bay has traded for Nelson Cruz.   A guy still performing at a high level...who becomes the best hitter on his WS-contending new team...for a couple of middling pitching prospects.   Unless the Twins suddenly become the Cleveland Indians, this is a lottery ticket for the Twins.   For Tampa Bay, their chances of making the WS just went up significantly.   This type of thing really irks me as I am sure you could tell by my last article on the proposed Yankees trade.  The Twins get back a return not likely to move the needle on their contention for the AL Central in the future whereas the Rays get a guy who is likely to have a huge impact on their success this year.    Is that one year success, that one possible WS title, worth that much?   I don't know, why don't you go on the street and ask any Indians' fan what they would be willing to trade for the realistic chance of being the favorite to win the WS title?  I think the answer would be much closer to "Anything!" than it would be to "Nothing".  

So there you have it.   When the Tampa Bay Rays become robber barons I just give up.   When the Twins give up a huge piece to Tampa Bay's title hopes this year and get little back in return, I give up.  

I am left with one question:  Why isn't my team making those kinds of trades or, at least, having those kinds of trades postulated by the media?  Then I think "Is that really the way I want to win my title?  By being a robber baron?"

Stay tuned.  I may be making a heel-turn here any day now.

Thomas Harrigan - You are an idiot!

 I always tell myself to just let these idiots go when they propose their 'homer' trades designed to steal good players from the Indians and not give much back.

But, after tonight's frustrating loss to Tampa Bay, I need to vent a little.

Jose Ramirez and Bradly Zimmer for Gleyber Torres, Luis Gil and Kevin Alcantara

What a piece of crap.

Well, Mr. Harrigan, you are an idiot.   To post trash like this on MLB.com is almost criminal.  So let me tell you what the Indians should do.  To be clear, I don't advocate trading Ramirez and I especially don't advocate giving him away the way you described in your article.  But if I was the GM and the owner told me I must trade him I would, in order:

(1) Laugh at this 'offer' from the Yankees.   Torres sucked last year and he sucks this year, as well.  He is having a bad season and most Yankees fans would be OK with dumping him.  BTW. are you aware we have not one but two ML caliber SS right now and 1/3 of the top prospects in our farm system are middle infielders?  Torres is not a fit for our team.   Gil, at the beginning of the season, was listed by Baseball America as the 40th best RH pitching prospect in baseball.  Triston McKenzie was #5.  Alcantara is a second tier prospect in a Yankees farm system that is clearly a second tier farm system.   By definition, the guy is a fungible asset.  Not anything special.   A throw-in on this deal.   Plus, we give the Yankees Zimmer because, well, they need Zimmer and we have to throw in a seasoned major leaguer just for you to take Ramirez off the Indians' hands.

Sir, you are an idiot of the nth degree.  So, since you obviously don't know crap about baseball, let me enlighten you on a fair trade:

Ramirez and Zimmer (two guys you need now) for Jasson Dominguez, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Estevan Florial and Austin Wells (none of which will help you this year, and maybe not next year).  Schmidt is hurt this year, Wells is a professional rookie, Dominguez is so far away from the majors that Jose Ramirez's contract with you will expire before the Dominguez gets his first cup of coffee.  We have already talked about the comparison between Triston McKenzie and Gil.  Do the Yankees give up a lot of talent here?  Sure they do.  But we are talking about the Yankees here.   If they need a ML player they just go out and buy one in free agency.  So prospects for the Yankees don't mean as much as prospects for a small market team like Cleveland.  Plus, you are getting a perennial MVP candidate with 2+ years of VERY reasonable salary control.   That should cost you a small fortune, right?  I know you would ask for that if the Yankees were trading a superstar like Ramirez.

(2) If the Yankees don't accept the above offer AND I AM FORCED TO TRADE RAMIREZ, I trade him to the highest bidder.  Let's hope the Indians GM is not forced into that.

(3) If your beloved Yankees don't like the above deal and we have to trade Ramirez and get what we can for him and we can't better the 'deal' your proposed trade then my thought is, I take the best offer I can get from the Mets and let the fans and media in your precious New York chew you a new one when the Yankees are crushed by the Indians trading Ramirez, Lindor and Carrasco to their crosstown rivals.

Yes, it was a frustrating loss tonight but I feel a little better now dusting off a hack like you.  Get off the real media like MLB.com and write your own blog.  And to those of you who picked up this story and forwarded it, shame on you.   You may not be Indians fans but I hope you now can see how insulting it is to Cleveland baseball fans to perpetuate a joke of a proposal like Mr. Harrigan proposed.

Thoughts for a Wednesday morning

 (1) Starting pitching the last two games

Two games against the Astros, two managerial mistakes.  In both games the starters struggled through 4 innings and had high pitch counts although they had given up only runs.   

So what does Francona do?   He allows them to go to the 5th inning and they get blown out, taking a positive outing and turning it to crap.   

In neither game should the starter have gone out for the 5th inning.   I am sorry it doesn't match with Francona's blueprint of how many innings his starter has to pitch to save his bullpen.   I am sorry if these guys are not developing as fast as they need to.  

But this is just crap.  Francona has done this a number of times this season and in past seasons.  He is going to bury these young pitchers mentally.

He should have started the 5th inning with a relief pitcher.   It's not rocket science.  These were both dumb mistakes.  Stop making dumb, undefendable mistakes.

(2) Akron

Cody Morris looked very good today.  Yes, a day game after a night game but I liked what I saw especially when this is really Morris' early May due to being on the DL for so long.   I think he has a chance to pitch in Cleveland next year.

Richie Palacios is interesting.  His swing is crazy as he ends up off balance almost every time he is putting so much into each swing.   But, somehow, he gets it done as he did today with two hits, a walk and a SB so far

With Tyler Freeman and Jose Fermin not playing and Oscar Gonzalez being promoted it is really a boring lineup to watch hit.   Palacios and Benson are the only guys worth watching hit.  The rest of the guys are organizational players.  Not that that is unusual but, man, it is boring.

Regarding Benson, he went 0-4 today but hit every ball hard.  No strikouts, no wasted ABs.  Just not any success.   I am really encouraged with his progress this year and he went from being someone who would be leaving as a 6-year free agent or in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 to a guy I think, unless the bottom falls out in the rest of the season, they have to roster this winter. 

I have to wonder if guys like Clemmer and Arias at Akron have any chance of making it.  They both have good numbers this year but, again, just at AA so who knows?!?  Neither has shown anything special to me when I saw them, just good, solid pitching.  

(3) Draft nuggets

McGreevy, the guy I hoped the Indians would draft signed an underslot deal with the Cardinals, which makes not getting him even hurt a little more.   The key for him will be if he can get more velo on his fastball.  Without it he looks more like Mason Hickman than Shane Bieber.  Time will tell.

It will be interesting to see the Indians top 10 rounds play out, bonus-wise.   They are so good at using all their budget dollars that announcing a bunch of signings this weekend will really give us a picture of how they are allotting bonus dollars.  August 1st signing deadline after a July 11th draft has really changed how the Indians are handling their draft signing process.  I like them bringing a bunch of guys out to Arizona at one time.   Really starts to build camaraderie.   It will be interesting to see if any of those guys make their way to Lynchburg or Lake County this year.   Remember the minor league season started late this year so there may be more chances for this to happen.

Post Draft Mock Draft

 OK, almost every year I do a mock draft after the draft of what the Indians could have done.   I then file that away and look at it years later (or not).   

Looking through the Indians draft this year and knowing that they have a lot of position player prospects in the minors, it is a little hard to do that this year as all I would be doing is sacrificing pitching for.

There are only two places where I can see the Indians having drafted a position player over the pitcher they drafted.

Round 6:

Indians drafted Aaron Davenport

I would have drafted: Parker Chavers, OF, Coastal Carolina - Chavers has speed and power but was old for the draft (23).   

Summary: I think Davenport is a stretch here.  My sense is that the Indians will save some slot money on Davenport that they feel they need to sign some of their other guys.  Still, with that being said, I think given how heavy the draft was at this point with college pitchers (5 already picked), Chavers was the better choice.  

Round 9:

Indians chose Will Dion

I would have chosen: Niko Cavadas 1B

Summary: Cavadas is a DH in training.   Nonetheless, he has plus plus power and good bat speed and getting the #135 prospect at this point in the draft was a steal as I am sure the Red Sox will find.  When you get to the 9th round you are looking for one outstanding tool and Cavadas has that, power. Dion doesn't have that tool as far as I can see. So, to me, Dion is a stretch and a head-scratcher at this spot in the draft but two things are true about the Indians: (a) they know how to stretch their draft budget out to the last dollar (Dion will come cheap compared to Kavadas) and (b) they know how to develop pitchers.  Maybe by this point they did the math and decided that they couldn't sign Cavadas and stay within their budget.  Maybe they had no choice, by their calculations, but to take a chance on Dion based on their pitching development program because they needed as much slot money left as possible and Dion was going to save them some bucks.   However, this pick, above all picks in the Indians' draft, may be the most second-guessable when you compare Dion to Cavadas.

Looking at the available guys at every other draft slot and factoring in that you can likely get more value from college players, especially pitchers and that the Indians usually pick the right college pitchers, sign them and turn them into prospects AND that good high school prospects come with higher price tags and with much greater risk than college guys AND how bad a record the Indians have had at selecting HS position players, especially after the first round, I can't find fault with or suggest alternative draft picks at any position.

Not bad, only two spots out of 21 draft picks where I would have chosen differently based on the talent available in the draft.  Let's hope the Indians are right will all their draft picks and that Chavers and Cavadas don't make us have buyer's regret down the road.

Updated Mid-season Prospect Rankings Including 2021 Draftees

 OK, time to update this and make corrections from the rankings I hastily posted before the draft.  This ranking includes the 2021 draftees and 2021 international signings.   I know there are always differences in rankings but is there anyone I flat out forgot?  NOTE: Guys who made their ML debuts this this I have not mostly not included on this list as my guess is that they will exhaust their rookie status before the end of this season.

1. Tyler Freeman 
2. George Valera
3. Daniel Espino
4. Nolan Jones
5. Angel Martinez
6. Gavin Williams
7. Gabriel Arias
8. Oscar Gonzalez
9. Doug Nikhazy
10. Logan T. Allen
11. Tommy Mace
12. Jhonkensy Noel
13. Carson Tucker
14.  Brayan Rocchio
15. Bo Naylor
16. Isaiah Greene
17. Jose Tena
18. Bryan Lavistida
19. Ethan Hankins
20. Juan Hillman
21. Will Benson
22. Richie Palacios
23. Owen Miller
24. Juan Mota
25. Yainer Diaz
26. Alexfri Planez
27. Luis Durango, Jr.
28. Jake Fox
29. Carlos Vargas
30. Gabriel Rodriguez
31. Francisco Perez
32. Angel Genao
33. Fran Alduey
34, Kirk McCarty
35. Justin Garza
36. Scott Moss
37.  Nick Mikolajchak
38. Tanner Burns
39. Jose Pestrano
40. Josh Wolf
41. Jerson Ramirez
42. Tanner Bibee
43. Jonathon Rodriguez
44. Trenton Brooks
45. Xzavion Curry
46. Aaron Braccho
47. Cam Hill
48. Jose Fermin
49. Junior Sanquintin
50. Petey Halpin
51. Cody Morris
52. Steven Kwan
53. Ryan Webb
54. Robert Broom
55. Mason Hickman
56. Dakody Clemmer
57. Marcos Gonzalez
58. Milan Tolentino
59. Jack Leftwich
60. Rodney Boone
61. Yordys Valdez
62. Christian Cairo
63. Hunter Gaddis
64. Conner Kokx
65. Adam Scott
66. Aaron Pinto
67. Joe Naranjo
68. Thomas Ponticelli
69. Trenton Denholm
70. Connor Marabell
71. Alex Call
72. Shane McCarthy
73. Skylar Arias
74. Nick Enright
75. Kevin Kelly
76. Will Bartlett
77. Zach Hart
78. Jamie Arias-Bautista
79. Quentin Holmes
80. Will Brennan
81. Richard Polanco
82. Robert Lopez
83. Yefri Rivera
84. Franco Aleman
85.  Will Dion
86. Korey Holland
87. Hunter Stanley
88. Zach Pettway
89. Raymond Burgos
90. Gavin Collins
91. Mike Rivera
92. Aaron Davenport

Trade deadline deals - Who will go and what will we get back?

OK, with the current state of and uncertainty about this team, I think it is safe to say that we will be sellers at the deadline.  Let's talk first about who we would trade:

1. Cesar Hernandez - Probably one of the most unexpected disappointments this season has been Hernandez.  Aside from his HRs, every remaining part of his game has been a disappointment.  However, he is a professional and flashed a gold glove last year so he has some value.

2. Eddie Rosario - A true professional, he is devoid of power but possesses everything else a team could need in a leftfielder.   Maybe the power will resurface with a change in facility.

Bryan Shaw - A revitalized career does not come without questionmarks.   His inning on Friday is typical.   Give up some hits and walks, load the bases, strikeout his way out of it.  

Nick Wittgren - Very little value here as he is having an off year but the point is, I doubt he comes back next year so if we can get something for him, he goes.

So, looking at the contenders and what are current needs are, here is what I think we should do:

NEED: ML-ready or almost ready OFer who could play CF, international bonus money and a low level minor league catcher.

The way that I see it that we will get even one quality prospect is pool some or all of the guys on the list above.   

So, looking at the contenders who could benefit from the guys above, it appears the best fit is with San Francisco.   So, here is a proposed trade:

Indians get:

Heliot Ramos OF (AA) - repeating and having a little trouble with AA although a highly rated OF prospect. (Giants #3 Prospect on MLB.com)

 Blake Rivera RH pitcher (high A) (Giants #18 prospect on MLB.com, destined for the bullpen)

Adrian Sugastey C (AZL) - (Giants #29 prospect per Baseball America)

$250,000 international bonus pool money

Giants gett:

Cesar Hernandez

Eddie Rosario

Bryan Shaw

$4 million

This trade would create a roster problem for the Giants whose roster is full AND have 6 guys on their 60-Day DL so there might be a little more to this deal than what I suggested above.

That leaves Wittgren.   I do a trade with the A's.

Indians get: 

Michael Guldberg, OF (23th rated prospect in A's system)

$100,000 international bonus money

A's get:

Nick Wittgren

Ernie Clement

Draft hangover post

 Well, I wonder how hard core Angels fans are doing this morning?

I am having a little buyer's remorse about not drafting any college bats early in this draft but, when I feel that way, take a deep breath and remind myself:

• The first rule in drafting: If you always draft the best player you eventually have to succeed.  
• Assuming your draft picks perform well, they are exchangeable with other team's successful draft picks.  That means that you can trade your excess pitching for another team's excess outfielders, etc....in principle.  You have to have a GM who is a good trader in those situations and I am not sure we have that but, in principle, who you draft is not nearly as important as that your draft picks become successful.
• You don't draft for now, you draft for 4-5 years from now.   That is, if you draft for current needs in 5 years you may not have that need anymore...and then you are back to the bullet #2 above.

Look, 1/3 (or less, depending on the "expert" you consult) of the Indians top 30 prospects are pitchers.  Two of those are out for this season with TJ surgery.  Another has not pitched this year and the rest are first year professionals.  No one is near the majors,  

As far as position players here is the breakdown:

AAA: 4

AA: 4

High A: 5

Low A: 4

Rookie: 4

So, we are not only unbalanced in terms of pitchers to position prospects right now we are also unbalanced in terms of where these players are in their development path.   

Bottom line: we needed prospects who were the best at that draft slot, who could move fast and who fit into our needs in 3-4 years.

A major problem with this, or any baseball draft, is that these guys are 4-5 years or more away from helping your team.  Not like football.  Not like basketball.  And, there is no real, tangible way for most fans to know which ones will stay injury-free, which ones will be able to implement the changes to make them successful major leagues.   Nobody knows, really.   People act like they know but they don't.

So, even a day later, I see the path forward with each of these draftees.  I see, in theory, how they can help the Indians in the future.   Most won't make it.   Some will.

At this soint, as it is every year at draft time, we hope our scouting department makes the right choices.  Looking at who they drafted I don't see one guy who I think was a terrible choice.  Not one.   And understand that this is coming from a guy who can ALWAY find problems with draft choices.

That being said, I will propose later this week an alternate draft strategy the Indinas could have used.   Not that my strategy will be better in hindsight than theirs was at the time but, for grins, I think it is worth a look.

Excessive

That's what people might think.   Drafting 18 college pitchers, 86% of your draft picks in a draft.  Really? 

So I decided to take a look at what other teams did this year.  Here is what I found:

Team - Total Pitchers-College-JUCO-HS

Arizona 9-6-1-2

Atlanta 10-6-1-3

Baltimore 9-9-0-0

Boston 8-6-1-1

Cubs 10-5-0-5

White Sox 12-10-1-1

Cincinnati 12-8-4-0

Cleveland 19-18-0-1

Colorado 11-11-0-0

Detroit 12-11-0-1

Houston 7-7-0-0

KC 12-8-1-4

Angels 20-19-0-1

Dodgers 17-12-3-2

Miami 10-10-0-0

Milwaukee 10-3-4-3

Minnesota 10-8-1-1

Mets 12-12-0-0

Yankees 13-9-1-3

Oakland 10-9-0-1

Philadelphia 13-7-3-3

Pittsburgh 11-7-1-3

San Diego 12-9-1-2

San Francisco 16-13-1-2

Seattle 9-6-2-1

St. Louis 12-11-1-0

Tampa Bay 13-11-2-0

Texas 10-4-2-4

Toronto 14-10-1-3

Washington 10-8-2-0

So, what can we make from this?  Being lazy I am taking a guess here and saying that, on an average year, 55% of your top 20 picks (11 picks) would be pitchers, probably split 8-1-2.  If you can buy these made up numbers then 11 of the teams in baseball felt that it was a pitching heavy draft.   If you believe in the average of 4-year college pitchers drafted in the first 20 rounds then 16 teams thought that it was a draft heavy in college pitching. 

Even more interesting is that the LA Angels picked more pitchers than the Indian and the LA Dodgers drafted almost as many.   

So, if Tribe fans thought the Indians were crazy, I can only imagine what Angels fans think of their amateur scouting group,  Dodger fans?  I am sure with their success they trust their scouting department implicitly.

It is also interesting to note that in over 600 picks in the draft, 43 were HS pitchers.  In the first 20 rounds of 2019 there were 51 HS pitchers selected so the numbers are roughly the same but a little smaller this year.  

The one area that I think the Indians should do a better job is in junior college scouting.  There were 32 junior college pitchers drafted this year and the Indians didn't draft any.   My guess is that some HS pitchers who weren't drafted last year went to junior college to keep their options open.   Our of 20 rounds I would have thought at least 1 junior college pitcher would have been drafted by the Indians as they also need AZL-level pitching prospects.  Nineteen teams drafted at least one junior college pitcher.  I think scouting JUCO players may be more expensive as you likely won't find more than one or two players on a JUCO team worth watching and it is harder to scout them because the competition level is lower.   So my guess is the reward may be considered not worth the effort.  Still, even if they just call a guy and then draft him only by looking at a game tape, to get one JUCO pitcher in 20 rounds wouldn't seem to cost that much in resources. 

I would have liked to see the Indians draft a couple of college position players earlier in the draft but if your need is pitching and your organizational strength is development of college pitchers, even in cases where the talent level is close between a position player and a pitcher, you take the pitcher as your chances or getting a ML return on your investment are greater. 

More analysis later.

Third day draft analysis

In this historic draft for the team, the Indians stayed the college pitcher course.   It makes sense as this draft was really deep in college pitching.  Here are their 3rd day picks:

• Round 11 - Hunter Stanley, college 5th years senior RHP,  Southern Miss. 6'0", Had good numbers this year striking out 122 in 102 innings with only 19 walks.   Can't find much on him but the numbers scream good breaking ball(s) and his low draft slot screams below average fastball.  My guess is they drafted him as a reliever hoping his fastball plays up with good professional coaching and working in shorter stints.
• Round 12 - Connor Kokx - college junior OF, Long Beach St. - He is a well-rounded guy who showed some power this year, some speed and a good batting eye.  No idea why he was rated so lowly but at least his stats, especially his plate discipline, gives a good foundation for fhis development as a professional power hitter.
• Round 13 - Davis Sharpe - college junior, RHP - 6'4" - Not great stats but good K/IP. Projects as a reliever based on his usage in college as an opener and a reliever.
• Round 14 - Trenton Denholm - college junior RHP, 5'11" UC Irvine - A short right-handed pitcher, Denholm was drafted at 426 and was listed as the 216th best prospect by MLB so there may be some extra value in this pick.  He is a changeup guy with a borderline average ML fastball.   Think Eli Morgan as his upside. 
• Round 15 - Alaska Abney - college junior RHP Coastal Carolina, 6'1" - Another shorter RHP,   Pitched in relief for 3 years.  This year 46 ip, 14 BB and 68 K.  Likely drafted as a reliever
• Round 16 - Zach Pettway - college senior RHP, UCLA, 6'2" - Starting pitcher with good control but only OK strikeout numbers.  
• Round 17 - Tyler Thornton - college junior RHP, Arizona St. 6'3" - 
• Round 18 - Tommy Ventimiglia - high school RHP, 6-4 - 
• Round 19 - Reid Johnston, college junior RHP, 6'3" - 
• Round 20 - Jake Miller, college junior RHP, 6'3" -

Well, there you have it, the third day was the cap to a historic draft for the Indians where they drafted 18 college pitchers, 1 college outfielder, 1 high school pitcher and 1 high school shortstop.  Here are my initial thoughts.

• I don't know if there has ever been a team that drafted 86% college pitchers in the first 20 rounds of a ML first-year player draft.  
• Note that we may not be done.  We may still sign some organizational position players as non-drafted free agents.
• The loss of the Mahoning Valley team really impacted the need for organizational position players and probably played into the large number of pitchers drafted.  It is a simple fact.  You need 9 bats and only one ball.   When you remove a team you remove the need for those 9 bats, if they are just organizational guys.   As all the 2020 and 2019 drafted position players already have teams, there was no need to draft more.
• Look at the state of our rosters in the minors right now.  The AZL team has, essentially, no pitching.  At all the other levels the Indians have a much, much higher ratio of position player true prospects on each roster than they have real pitching prospects.   
• College pitchers from good programs will be able to start higher in the minors than less experienced pitchers meaning we can backfill a lot of holes in our pitching prospect content at each level in the next year or two.
• Don't be surprised if only a handful of these pitchers actually get to play this year.  I think that most will be developed first in Arizona and then in the instructional league before they get to play next year and that is when you will see a good number of the 2021 drafted college pitchers appear on full-season rosters.  I think they will take their time with these guys to make sure they have polished them up and have roles for them before just throwing them out there.   That being said, don't be surprised if a number of 2021 draftees start this year on the AZL roster.  The pitching there is so bad some of those guys still need to be playing in the Dominican.

I willl be back with an overall summary later but my initial impression is that this is interesting.   I will be OK  if I find out that the decent college position players I wanted to draft don't end up signing.  If they do, I think we should have grabbed a couple more, especially one or two of the catchers I mentioned before and an outfielder or two.   While I am on board with the idea that pitchers drafted late have a much greater chance to at least make the majors, if you pick the right ones who can play a small role, the idea of missing out on potential position players at crucial postions, like catcher and maybe OF still bothers me.  In the end, though, we needed guys who were going to be here by 2024.  I think, in this draft, we got that done.

More later  

Draft 2021: The final day(s)

 Well, we-ve reached the final day of the 2021 draft.   The last day is usually a yawner.  Unless they are flush with cash saved in the top 10 rounds teams have a budget of about $125,000 a player in these rounds.  With a modicum of cash savings they might be able to sign a couple of guys for $200,000 or one guy for $300,000.   It used to be that this day was for players who would sign cheap because they had no option (college seniors) or they just wanted to turn pro and not mess with college (JUCO guys or some HS guys).  The lure of having your college paid for later on was also a bonus.

In the past the strategy used to be to find guys with maybe one tool who you thought you could develop.   If you guessed wrong you had an organizational player, someone to fill out a roster so your star prospects had a team to play on.  Well, with the elimination of the short season A ball teams (Mahoning Valley for the Indians) the need for organizational players has disappeared.

So, looking at the Indians drafts in 2017, 2018 and 2019 one thing becomes clear: You will be lucky to get one or two players from this day who even make it to AAA and, if you get a guy making it to the majors, you will need to take some chances.

So let's take a look at what the Indians could/should do today:

• Look for college players, especially pitchers, who were injured and missed the year but yet were real prospects coming into this season.   Zach Plesac comes to mind.
• Take a much harder look at JUCO players than ever before.   The Indians have not even been close to being productive at drafting and signing JUCO players who have even made it to AA.  They need to be better.
• Realize that this year there WILL be college pitchers who they can turn into relief pitchers in the majors.   As I said earlier, in this daft James Karinchak would have been picked on the 3rd day.  
• Look, somehow, for a couple of high school bats who will sign and have SOME chance to make it to the majors.  Korey Holland comes to mind here.
• Find at least one college catching prospect like Bryan Lavistida.

So, let the fun begin.   If the Indians can mine the remaining prospects and do even incrementally better than they have in the past, this could be a great draft.  

Plus, there is always the college non-drafted free agent path to add a few guys if you want.

Rounds 8-10

 Before we go to the round 8 pick I wanted to pass something by all of you.   Here are the Indians picks in the 2017,  2018 and 2019 drafts in rounds 6-10.

2019:

6 - Jordan Brown HS SS

7 - Xzavion Curry college RHP

8 - Will Brennan college OFer

9 - Will Bartlett HS C/1B

10 - Zach Hart college RHP

2018:

6 - Raynel Delgado HS SS

7 - Cody Morris college RHP

8 - Alex Royalty college RHP

9 - Brian Eichhorn college RHP

10 -  Robert Broom college RHP

2017:

6 - Mike Rivera college catcher

7 - Kirk McCarty  college RHP

8 - Eli Morgan college RHP

9 - James Karinchak college RHP

10 - Jesse Berardi college 2B/Ss

From 2019 Curry looks like the best and from 2018 Broom and Morris look like the best and in 2017 Karinchak and Morgan appear the best with McCarty still having a good chance to make the majors.   2018 was a bit of a mess as Royalty and Eichhorn don't look too promising but in every year the college pitchers appear to be progressing fast and the HS draftees appear to be stalling/progressing slowly.   So, looking back, it appears that the Indians' plan for 2021 seems to be based on the results from previous seasons.   

In round 8 the Indians select Rodney Boone, a 6'1" college junior LHP.  Again, he is a value picked with the 246th selection and rated by MLB as their 192nd best draft prospect.  While McGreevy was the top UC Santa Barbara pitching prospect, Boone is no slouch.   He was their Friday starter and had good command and swing-and-miss stuff with 55 H allowed in 97 IP with 128 K and 39 BB.  He appears to be a grinder like Civale and, again, is a good candidate for the Indians pitching development program.  He is not tall and is the 3rd short lefty drafted so far by the Indians but it addresses a need in their system, left handed starting pitching.  

In the 9th round the Indians, trying to mix it up, select Will Dion with the 276th pick in the draft.  Dion is a college short LHP junior and is not ranked on any listing I can find.   Not surprising because of his lack of height, slow fastball and lack of good competition to get a good read on how his stuff will play in pro ball.  He has extreme control (18 BB in 99 innings this year) and has some swing and miss (121 Ks) and throws a lot of first ball strikes. His fastball is below MLB average at 87-91 with a good curveball and, I think, a slider that might make him effective against lefties.  Looks like a potential reliever for me to put into the Indians pitching development machine and see what comes out of the other end.

In the 10th and final round on the second day the Indians, with the 306th pick, select...[drum roll please]...Franco Aleman, a 6'6" RHP college junior from the University of Florida.  Aleman was the #243 prospect on MLB's top 250 list.  Aleman is the 9th player in the top 11 picks by the Indians to be highly ranked.   If my memory serves this is a draft record for the Indians as, like most teams, they start to diverge from prospect lists in the 4th or 5th rounds.  This time they hung true to drafting college pitchers who were highly rated.  His scouting report says he is a sinker-slider guy who can throw up to 98 and get swings and misses on the slider (though his K/IP numbers are mediocre for college ball).  He looks like another potential reliever who came on and pitched his best ball at the end of the year against good competition.   

So, folks, there you have it.   If you like picking college pitchers you probably loved this draft.  If you think we need more pitcher/hitter balance or if you wanted us to go for broke with some highly rated high school player with huge bonus demands then you are probably pulling your hair out right now.  

For me, the first 10 rounds were great for the Indians as they drafted to their development strength: taking good college pitching prospects and plugging them into their pitching development program.

Now, tomorrow in rounds 11-20 I think the Indians should go after some HS pitchers and position players almost exclusively.   I think with the emphasis on college pitchers in the first 10 rounds I think people might think we need to add a few college position players.   However, of the 58 remaining players on MLB's top 250, only 8 are college juniors or seniors, about 5 are JUCO players and the rest are HS players.   I think the focus for the next 10 rounds should be signable JUCO players, sprinkling in a few HS players who will sign.   With the elimination of the Mahoning Valley team there is no longer any need to draft organizational position players.   So, with the exception of drafting the best college catching prospects left, I think we should go young.   Here is the breakdown of what I would like to see the last 10 rounds to look like:

College catchers (2) (wouldn't Luca Tresh and Dominic Keegan look good if we could get them and we would have the cash to sign them for $250,000 each)

JUCO non-catcher position players (4) and pitchers (2)

High school position players (2)

Rounds 5, 6 and 7

 5th round - Right on cue, the Indians, in the 5th round,  selected Tanner Bibee, a college senior RHP from Cal State Fullerton listed as 6'2".  He was drafted with the 156th pick and his MLB rating was as the 162nd best prospect.   As a college senior you could see him signing for underslot value but his prospect rating tells me that it won't be much underslot.   I could be wrong but that is my sense.

Bibee was yet another victim of the truncated 2020 draft.   He would have likely been drafted last year due to his pitching peripherals.  He is a control pitcher, not yet a power pitcher, although it sounds like Bibee is an ideal candidate for the pitching development machine of the Indians, seeming to come in where Aaron Civale started out.   Don't know if that is a good comp for Bibee but it seems, on the surface, like it fits.  On the downside he could be projected to be another Mason Hickman who they selected in the 5th round last year, but I think Civale works better for me.

Bibee was one of only 5 players drafted in this round whose rankings were near or above what their draft slot was.   While this doesn't mean anything it points out that the Indians may not be using the "like who we like" approach that is very prone, in my opinion, to epic failures compared to monumental successes.  In picks 133-163 FIFTEEN teams picked guys not ranked in MLB's top 250.  The Indians appear, to the contrary, to be taking college pitchers with present value and stuff and plugging them into their pitching development program AND leveraging the spillover from 2020's truncated draft.   This is exactly what I hoped they would do as they are playing to their own development strengths and minor league talent distribution without sacrificing draft talent to do it.

In the 6th round the Indians picked  Aaron Davenport, a 6'0" RHP college junior from the University of Hawaii.  He is actually a 3rd year sophomore so we might not have much leverage with him.   We will see how the NCAA's waiver for 2020 plays out in terms of bonuses and leverage.  He is a little short but has an average ML fastball, has had success in college and has an elite curveball.   This is the first pick for the Indians (6th round, 186) where they took a player not listed in MLB's top 250.   Again, a college pitcher but this one looks, at the moment, like more of a two-pitch guy with one of those pitches being a dominating curveball.  

In the 7th round the Indians selected Jack Leftwich, a 6'4" RHP from U. of Florida.  Going back to the college pitching pool and MLB's top 250 (draft slot 216 and 156th best prospect in the draft), Leftwich is yet another college pitcher who was not drafted due to the 5-round draft in 2020.  Leftwich looks like a 2-pitch pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a slider.   His fastball is straight and so he is susceptible to be pounded when not locating the pitch.   His third pitch, a changeup, is apparently not that good making him look like a true bullpen fastball-slider guy going forward.   The Indians have been great in developing relievers with this type of stuff so that plays well for the future of this kid in the organization.

Seven college pitchers in the first 8 selections.  We will have to wait to see how these guys develop but understanding how drafting works, as much as an amateur at it like me can, tells me that the extra college pitchers thrown back into this draft really favors a team that can avoid "liking who we like", drafting signable players or drafting guys with bigger upsides who will be tough signs.   The Indians are doing exactly what I hoped they would do: draft older, highly rated college pitchers and allow their pitching development system to do its work.   

Won't say this is the most exciting draft the Indians have ever had but, to me, it is the one that makes the most sense on paper given the strength of the draft and the current state of their farm system.  

On to round 8.

Rounds 3 and 4

 In round 3 at pick 95 the Indians selected their first HS player, Jake Fox, a HS shortstop from Florida.  

Remember that this is where the draft gets dicey.   Up to this point if you failed to sign a pick you got the equivalent pick in the next draft.  Starting in the 4th round, you don't sign a guy, you lose that pick AND the associated bonus slot. 

Fox will have to move off of SS in the pros and, as a left-handed bat, may eventually be ticketed for the outfield.   As a bat-first prospect this may work for the Indians.

This is the first pick for the Indians where they have picked a guy rated much lower than their draft slot.   That is, they used the 95th slot to pick Fox, who was rated as the 198th best player in the draft by MLB.  This is the point in the draft where this starts happening more and more as teams like who they like.   Twenty-five (25) of the 30 teams in the 4th round picked guys rated lower than their draft slot although only 3 picked a player in the 4th round rated lower than Fox.

There is a possibility that Fox could sign for a slightly underslot bonus to save some money for Tommy Mace or other, later, draftees.

In round 4 at pick 125 the Indians selected Ryan Webb, a college senior LHP ranked 165 by MLB so could be some savings there but I don't expect as much as you would think (see below).  Like Mace he could have been but was not drafted in 2020, lending credence to more good college pitching being available this time around when you link what is left of the 2020 class with who would normally have been available in 2021.   Thus the Indians get to benefit from this effect and land another college pitcher, making it 4 of their top 5 selections being college pitchers.

Webb, despite his ranking, may require overslot money to sign as in 2020 he positioned himself to get early round money and so probably priced himself out of a truncated 5 round draft.  This year he will likely want to collect on that bet, making his signing not a money-saver for the Indians.  He has a 4 pitch mix making his have starting potential and I don't see anything that would say that he is dominant right now to be a left-handed reliever.   So his floor could be Kyle Nelson-like and his ceiling more along the lines of a left-handed Triston McKenzie.  Looking at tape and reading scouting reports says, to me, like he is more likely to reach his ceiling than his floor, but time will tell.

On to round 5.   For those thinking that the pitcher/hitter distribution should start balancing out with the rest of Cleveland's picks, don't count on it.  Not one of the pitchers drafted so far project as a reliever.  Some may end up there if they fail as starters, especially Willaims, but history tells me that we have some more James Karinchaks coming in the next 6 rounds of this draft for the Indians.

Round 2 and Competitive Balance picks - More college pitchers

 The Indians used their 2nd round and competitive balance picks on more college pitchers.   Let's take a look:

58 - Doug Nikhazy - LHP - Ole Miss - 6'0" - college junior - More scouting reports later but he was ranked 56th by MLB and he went 58th.  That seems like a good value even though he is a little short for a ML pitcher meaning it would be difficult for him to pitch downhill.  He appears to be a spike curveball pitcher with a slightly below average fastball.  As is typical of the Indians, Nikhazy is a high-floor guy and a starting pitcher with a 4-pitch mix.  The only downside on him is that he is a late riser, starting as low as the 150th best prospect back in January and moving up significantly as the year progressed.

69 - Tommy Mace - RHP - U. of Florida - 6'6" - college junior.   Mace was #45 on MLB's prospect list making him a good value here, on paper.   It is quite possible that we will see a little of Gavin William's money going to Mace to get him to sign as an overslot for this pick  Mace moved up from #69 earlier in the year on MLB's prospect list meaning that he is not THAT much of a value but, as a 4-pitch pitcher he looks like a starter.  He has average fastball velocity and relies on his cutter.

So, through the first 3 picks the Indians went for college pitchers, none of whom appear to be a reach and one of whom, Mace, looks like a value.  Given that Nikhazy is a high floor guy, it looks to me like Williams was a fallback plan with the original target being McGreevy.   Possibly Nikhazy doesn't get drafted by the Indians if they get McGreevy.  Who knows.   But we start with 3 college pitchers.

Likely the next pick will be a college position player, hopefully an outfielder.  Stay tu although both Ethan Wilson and Jud Fabian went early in the second round, as expected.   Stay tuned.

The Indians first round pick, Gavin Williams - Reading between the lines

 When the day began I was sure the Indians would draft Michael McGreevy.   He was a pinpoint control guy whose fastball ranged from 90-93.  He was rated lower than the Indians draft slot and there wasn't much to dream on this guy except that he went to the same school as Shane Bieber and he had control like Bieber.   He was a solid #3 starter with a floor of a #4.   Basically, his ceiling was low but his floor was high.  He was a safe pick as a starting pitcher who would be ready soon.   His ceiling was so low that some experts had him as low as the 40th best prospect.  He was going to be there when the Indians picked.   It was  a lock.  Then the Cardinals took him.

From my reading between the lines of what was said about him tonight and what the scouting reports said about Williams, here are my observations:

• The Indians were disappointed that McGreevy was taken and the guys on their list who they were pretty sure would be ready by 2024 were all taken.   
• They looked at the college pitchers still on the board as it came up to their turn.   They stacked up like this
• Gavin Williams - college senior, below slot signing likely, good solid foundation to be a #3 or #4 starter but with more risk than McGreevy of making that projection, but more projection to become a #1.  
• Ryan Cusick - A two pitch pitcher, likely to end up as a reliever.  Nonetheless, would probably require slot bonus or a little lower.
• Ty Madden - Highly rated but only a two-pitch pitcher.   Not an easy sign at 23 and so likely to require above slot bonus to sign.
• The other college pitchers available: Jaden Hill, Tommy Mace, Matt Mikulski, Andrew Abbott, didn't offer either the upside or bonus flexibility of Williams. 

 So when the Indians said that there were people in their draft room who were excited to see Williams on the board when their turn came up they were right.   The other options were bigger gambles than Williams and more costly than he will be.   It wasn't the best outcome for their first round pick as none of the college pitchers who were highly rated fell to them.  Nevertheless, it was an outcome that made sense: college pitcher, big fastball, 4 pitch mix, more mature and bonus flexibility as he is a college senior.  Checking a lot of boxes teams always have when looking for college pitching in the draft.  One thing I failed to mention.  Given Williams age, 4-pitch mix and fastball, they might feel that they could easily send him to Lake County this year and have Williams open next year at Akron.   When you think about it, pre-COVID, college pitchers would pitch at Mahoning Valley their first year and then advance to high A if they were good the second year or pitch at low A.  Now, if the guy is mature andhas above average stuff, he can step into high A in his draft year, shaving a whole year off his ascension through the farm system.  Mason Hickman is mature guy without the stuff and Logan T. Allen is more of a mature guy with stuff.   Williams probably has the same maturity and a little better stuff than Allen so you could easily see Williams spending his first full year at Akron instead of 1/2 a season as Allen is spending.

So yes, considering the alternatives, they were happy to get him at 23 given everything that went on with the picks before their pick.   Another way of saying the same thing was that it would have become an increasingly bigger disaster if Williams wasn't there.  So, instead of "excited" as the Indians said you could rightly substitute "relieved" that Williams was still there.  

I think these guys have a plan and I think, depending on how tomorrow's second round goes, you will see the Indians take another college pitcher or a college outfielder in the second round and then follow that pick up with a compensation pick as a college pitcher.  Then, in the third round you may see them do something crazy like drafting a college catcher.   I don't advise that and, if they have their college outfielder I would go for another college pitcher in the 3rd round.  

Once they are done with the 3rd round I could see them taking a high profile HS player as they did with Halpin last year and fill in his overslot bonus with money left over from Williams and money served with later picks.   Then in rounds 5-10 I see them filling in with college pitchers, including a couple of senior signs.  When they get to rounds 11-20, what they do will be determined by how much money they think they will have left.  Looking at 2019, most teams signed all their draft picks in the first 20 rounds.  That year the Indians focused on college guys in those rounds and, frankly, due to COVID or just lack of production, none of those guys look good right now.   The hope is that, with only 5 rounds last year, that there may be more talent in the JC ranks and in 4-year colleges than were left in previous years in rounds 11-20.   To put that in perspective, I think that if James Karinchak were in this draft he might last until the 11th or 12th round.   Given that thought, there may be more value to be found in rounds 11-20 in the college ranks this year and I expect them to go that way heavily, just like they did in 2019.  If they think they could have some bonus money left, look for them to take maybe one flyer on a HS hitter somewhere on the last day of the draft.  If they fail to sign him they still have 20 solid picks.