Let's talk draft!

When you were an Indians' fan in the 60s, 70s and 80s this was the most exciting time of the year.   

The draft!

Christmas in July...well, June, until recently.  But you get the idea.

Now, with a winning team, it is a little less exciting as you draft lower but it is, nevertheless, exciting.

So let's talk the Indians in the 2021 draft.

• The draft will be college heavy.   So many college guys are drafted after round 5 each year that there were a lot of guys who got left out of the 2020 10-round draft.   Those guys are now back in the draft this year.  EIghteen (18) of the top 150 draft prospects last year were college junior pitchers who were not even drafted.   Another 6 were college junior position players.  That's almost a full round of a draft in just highly ranked college juniors from last year who are draft eligible this year.    When you look at MLB's top 250 draft prospects for 2021 you will see that almost 57% of them are college players (84 of 138 pitchers, 58 of 113 position players).   That is probably an unprecedentedly large number as it usually is the much more heavily favoring HS players.   
• The college crop will be pitching heavy.   Beside the almost 61% of top pitching prospects in 2021 being college pitchers (84/138), of the top-ranked college players who weren't drafted last year, 18 of them (all ranked in the top 150 in 2020) were pitchers.   Add that to all the college pitchers who are normally drafted after round 5 who weren't drafted last year and you have a lot of college pitchers who will be eligible.  When you consider that all of them will still be college juniors this year due to the NCAA waiver from 2020, there will be a lot of guys to choose from.   For comparison guys like James Karinchak, Adam Plutko and Zach Plesac would have likely fallen through the cracks in a 5 round draft.  Add those 18 pitchers and a number of position players from college to the crop of college players who would normally be eligible for the draft in 2021 and you have A LOT of quality college talent. 

Teams that are retooling instead of rebuilding (the Indians) should be looking for the quick fix and that will involve college pitchers.  When the dust settles on this draft I see the Indians drafting 17 college players and only 4 high school players.   As a breakdown I see them drafting 12 pitchers (11 from college, 4 in the first 6 rounds, even though college pitchers make up only 1/3 of the top 250 draft prospects this year), 4 outfielders (3 from college), 1 catcher (college) and 4 infielders (2 college).  That means their draft will include 17 college players and only 4 HS players.  In the top 10 rounds I see 5-6 college pitchers, 3-4 college position players and one high school kid (not sure if he will be a pitcher or position player).  These are wild predictions but you go where the strength of the draft is and in my opinion there will be so many quality, projectable college pitchers left after round 10 that they would be crazy to not just gamble on some arms because they have a lot of position players in the minors right now but need to restock their pitching prospects.  Plus, for the first time in a while, rounds 10-20 will have quality college position players and even a few quality pitchers like Plesac who are left, at least through round 13 as there are a bunch of college position players who didn't get drafted last year.

This could, and SHOULD, be a down year for HS players who want to get drafted.  Given the increased number of college players available (including JUCO players who we haven't even talked about) AND the draft budget limitations, I think teams will forego even drafting high-priced HS talent when they can draft from a college crop that will be much better than the average year.  On a 1-100 scale of upside, why would I want to draft a guy with an 80 upside when I can get a college guy with a 70 upside.  I think you will see a lot of HS players pushed down in the draft by this trend taking them to rounds low enough that they won't get good bonus money and won't sign, likely meaning teams will draft even more college players than they normally would in rounds 6-10 as they can't afford quality HS talent in those rounds AND stay inside their draft budget.   So I think probably 6-15 in the first round you may see mostly HS guys but 1-5 and 16-50 I think you will see a lot of college guys.  After that I think you will see a heavier than average emphasis on college guys, especially college position players, in the rest of round 2 and round 3 for position players and up to round 10 for college pitchers.  Then, once you get past round 10 most of the HS guys won't sign and will go to college and you will be left filling those last 10 rounds with college guys.   

So there are my predictions.  I won't be commenting on which players I think the Indians will draft or do a pre-draft mock draft this year as drafts are too fluid, in my opinion, to make predictions.   I may do my customary post-draft mock draft after the draft this year. just to get down for posterity how I think it should have been done.

Christmas in July!   When you look at how the Indians look right now, it takes me back to draft days in the '70s.