OK, just a few hours from the draft and the painfully long time between picks. I like rounds 10-20 where it becomes one continuous lightning round.
Let's talk about what I think the Indians' strategy should be. Here are the facts sos far:
- The Indians and other teams have lost a short season minor league affiliate. Thus guys drafted this year can go to one of 3 teams: AZL complex team, Lynchburg (low A) or Lake County (high A). 2021 has shown us that guys drafted last year (e.g., Logan T. Allen, Tanner Burns) near the top of the draft can excel in their first season at high A but HS players drafted must begin their prep careers on the complex team because if they are pushed (Petey Halpin) they will struggle. So low A becomes what the short season team used to be and polished players scan start this year at Lynchburg and start next year at Lake County. The minor leagues at, at this point, set up to serve polished players from the draft who will excel on this accelerated timeline created by the loss of the short season team.
- The strength of this draft is college pitching
- Right now, looking at the Indians top 30 prospects on MLB.COM there are only 9 pitchers listed with three of them having significant injuries and Scott Moss being chronically injured this year.
- The Indians will have their whole ML roster under control until 2025 except for the catcher position. Plus, by that time, most of their minor league hitters will have matriculated to the majors
- Some teams will be enamored with HS players. They won't be able to resist, looking for that franchise player even if he takes a few years to develop. Those picks will, as they usually do, eat up a lot of the draft slots in the top 3 rounds.
- High school players drafted this year will likely not be in the majors full-time until 2006-7.
- College pitchers drafted this year will be in the majors by 2004-5
- College hitters drafted this year will be impact bats in the majors by 2006-7.
Mock drafts having them go for Michael McGreevy, RHP from UC Santa Barbara. If the draft goes as expected in these mock drafts, McGreevy is exactly the fast-moving, high floor guy they need to draft first. His drafting moves to balance the farm system AND helps us before our window closes AND will likely be impacted the least by the loss of the short season team as they can start this year at Lynchburg and have success.
I have seen some mock drafts shaving them go for a HS catcher, Henry Ford, in the first round. This would be a big mistake. By the time Ford would get to the majors we might no longer be competitive. Any guy drafted high who is not in the majors before our competitive window closes is worthless. Look at Casey Mize of the Tigers. The Tigers will likely not be competitive before Mize goes to arbitration and maybe not before he hits free agency. Total waste of a pick as he will not be able to move the needle of their competitiveness, even if he develops into a perennial Cy Young award winner. Teams like the Tigers and Pirates should be drafting HS players. Drafting Mize was a mistake by the Tigers not because he is bad but because all his cheap, controllable years will be wasted on non-competitive Tigers teams. At this point it would be better for the Tigers to trade Mize and get 3 stud HS/international prospects playing on a complex team. That would match their rebuild timeline better.
The Indians' farm system is set up to hit the majors about the time that quality college players would get there. Since our minor league system is position player heavy, you draft quick-moving college pitchers with high floors to catch up with our hitting prospects and create the next golden years for the Tribe, assuming only that guys don't flame out or get injured. Aside from that, McGreevy and guys like him are what we need.
Keep your fingers crossed that this draft, like the 2016 draft, keeps us competitive for years to come.
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