The Indians first round pick, Gavin Williams - Reading between the lines

 When the day began I was sure the Indians would draft Michael McGreevy.   He was a pinpoint control guy whose fastball ranged from 90-93.  He was rated lower than the Indians draft slot and there wasn't much to dream on this guy except that he went to the same school as Shane Bieber and he had control like Bieber.   He was a solid #3 starter with a floor of a #4.   Basically, his ceiling was low but his floor was high.  He was a safe pick as a starting pitcher who would be ready soon.   His ceiling was so low that some experts had him as low as the 40th best prospect.  He was going to be there when the Indians picked.   It was  a lock.  Then the Cardinals took him.

From my reading between the lines of what was said about him tonight and what the scouting reports said about Williams, here are my observations:

• The Indians were disappointed that McGreevy was taken and the guys on their list who they were pretty sure would be ready by 2024 were all taken.   
• They looked at the college pitchers still on the board as it came up to their turn.   They stacked up like this
• Gavin Williams - college senior, below slot signing likely, good solid foundation to be a #3 or #4 starter but with more risk than McGreevy of making that projection, but more projection to become a #1.  
• Ryan Cusick - A two pitch pitcher, likely to end up as a reliever.  Nonetheless, would probably require slot bonus or a little lower.
• Ty Madden - Highly rated but only a two-pitch pitcher.   Not an easy sign at 23 and so likely to require above slot bonus to sign.
• The other college pitchers available: Jaden Hill, Tommy Mace, Matt Mikulski, Andrew Abbott, didn't offer either the upside or bonus flexibility of Williams. 

 So when the Indians said that there were people in their draft room who were excited to see Williams on the board when their turn came up they were right.   The other options were bigger gambles than Williams and more costly than he will be.   It wasn't the best outcome for their first round pick as none of the college pitchers who were highly rated fell to them.  Nevertheless, it was an outcome that made sense: college pitcher, big fastball, 4 pitch mix, more mature and bonus flexibility as he is a college senior.  Checking a lot of boxes teams always have when looking for college pitching in the draft.  One thing I failed to mention.  Given Williams age, 4-pitch mix and fastball, they might feel that they could easily send him to Lake County this year and have Williams open next year at Akron.   When you think about it, pre-COVID, college pitchers would pitch at Mahoning Valley their first year and then advance to high A if they were good the second year or pitch at low A.  Now, if the guy is mature andhas above average stuff, he can step into high A in his draft year, shaving a whole year off his ascension through the farm system.  Mason Hickman is mature guy without the stuff and Logan T. Allen is more of a mature guy with stuff.   Williams probably has the same maturity and a little better stuff than Allen so you could easily see Williams spending his first full year at Akron instead of 1/2 a season as Allen is spending.

So yes, considering the alternatives, they were happy to get him at 23 given everything that went on with the picks before their pick.   Another way of saying the same thing was that it would have become an increasingly bigger disaster if Williams wasn't there.  So, instead of "excited" as the Indians said you could rightly substitute "relieved" that Williams was still there.  

I think these guys have a plan and I think, depending on how tomorrow's second round goes, you will see the Indians take another college pitcher or a college outfielder in the second round and then follow that pick up with a compensation pick as a college pitcher.  Then, in the third round you may see them do something crazy like drafting a college catcher.   I don't advise that and, if they have their college outfielder I would go for another college pitcher in the 3rd round.  

Once they are done with the 3rd round I could see them taking a high profile HS player as they did with Halpin last year and fill in his overslot bonus with money left over from Williams and money served with later picks.   Then in rounds 5-10 I see them filling in with college pitchers, including a couple of senior signs.  When they get to rounds 11-20, what they do will be determined by how much money they think they will have left.  Looking at 2019, most teams signed all their draft picks in the first 20 rounds.  That year the Indians focused on college guys in those rounds and, frankly, due to COVID or just lack of production, none of those guys look good right now.   The hope is that, with only 5 rounds last year, that there may be more talent in the JC ranks and in 4-year colleges than were left in previous years in rounds 11-20.   To put that in perspective, I think that if James Karinchak were in this draft he might last until the 11th or 12th round.   Given that thought, there may be more value to be found in rounds 11-20 in the college ranks this year and I expect them to go that way heavily, just like they did in 2019.  If they think they could have some bonus money left, look for them to take maybe one flyer on a HS hitter somewhere on the last day of the draft.  If they fail to sign him they still have 20 solid picks.