Monday, July 26, 2021

Indians raise white flag - how is the stock of our tradeable pieces changing?

 So, the Indians today put Aaron Civale on the 60-day DL, meaning he can't pitch for another month.   By then the season will be, essentially, over.   By that I mean that with the current rotation and schedule the Indians will not be able to win enough to stay in contention.   By the time Civale comes back they may be 10 games under .500.   

This is the final move that says to me that the Indians are giving up on this season as this move was 100% about Civale not being ready and 0% about the guy (Young) who we added to the roster.  

Thus, you can expect the Indians to be a big seller before the trade deadline.  That being said, let's take a look at how the value of our available trip chips has changed in the past week or so.  Note that any guy who I think could be (a) a part of next year's team (e.g., no Jose Ramirez trade) or (b) has zero trade value (e.g., Oscar Mercado and Daniel Johnson) or (c) isn't currently on the 26-man roster, isn't included below, except for Austin Hedges who we might be able to give away if we eat a decent percentage of his remaining salary.  

Cesar Hernandez - STOCK GOING UP - signed through this season with an option for next year.   I am not sure that the option is transferable to another team.   Hernandez's stock is going up with his performance against the Rays.   Teams in need of a second baseman can see how he can help them in the playoffs and, along with his performance last year (offensively and defensively)

Jordan Luplow - STOCK GOING UP - This is weird to say but Luplow does have minimal value in a trade.  His history against LHP could be value to a contender in a pennant race if for no other reason just the incremental advantage he has against lefties.   The fact that he is looking good on his rehab means he could be back up to the majors in a day or two and traded a day or two later, if his instant performance looks solid.

Harold Ramirez - STOCK GOING UP - Hey, I get it.  HRam has looked good in our outfield this year.   But that isn't hard to do given how bad our OF is.  Still, to a contender, his performance this year gives him significant value as he gets clutch hits and is a high energy guy.   Just the type of guy who could be responsible for your team winning a couple of crucial games down the stretch.  But as an Indians' OFer for next year and in the future?  He is a 4th outfielder on a contending team.   Maybe he improves but I don't think that he can change who he is at this point.   So turning him into a prospect in a trade is actually a great idea as this is the only time of year that teams will take a serious look at a guy like this.

Bryan Shaw -  - STOCK STAYING THE SAME -  He has pitched a lot, mostly effectively, but his percentage of failures have gone up recently so teams could be wary that he is not as effective as he appeared earlier in the year.   Still, looking at his body of work, he is a solid reliever for a contending team in need of relief help (and which contending team isn't in need of veteran relief help?

Eddie Rosario - STOCK STAYING THE SAME - Until Rosario gets back on the field he is damaged goods.   Still, to me he has a lot of worth   Solid offensive clutch hitter, Power potential still there.   Good clubhouse guy on a contender.

Nick Wittgren - STOCK GOING DOWN - Wittgren needed a solid performance this weekend and he didn't get it, giving up 5 in the 9th in a loss.  His value is almost non-existent now but maybe a contender will take a flyer on him and we could, as I have proposed, trade him for a little international bonus money.

Austin Hedges - LITTLE IF ANY TRADE VALUE - Hedges' salary and lack of offense makes his trade value zero.  I doubt if any contender wants to add him at this point so he will be here for the rest of the season, unfortunately,  Still, a team in need of a solid veteran backup catcher might be willing to take him off our hands if we eat 75% of his remaining salary.   Doing a deal like this might even be able to get us $50,000 in international bonus money.  

I have said this before but I will say it again here.   The best value the Indians can get for these guys is to package them together, eat some salary, and include receiving international bonus money in any deal they make.   My proposed trade to the Giants does that.   Hopefully the Indians will be able to make a trade like this and bring in some close to ML-ready talent into the majors.   


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