Thoughts for a Monday

 OK, time to catch our breaths, talk about this weekend and what the future holds.

1. I saw a stat yesterday where the Indians were something like 42-22 against teams with sub .500 records and 22-42 against teams with over .500 records.  When you have a team constructed like the Indians are, that is all you can expect...a .500 record or slightly over that.  My 82-80 prediction still works for me for this season.

2. I have been looking and asking experts and, with all due respect to the bloggers who follow the Indians, I don't see how guys from the 2017 international signing class would have to be protected from the Rule 5 this winter.   Guys like Johnkensy Noel, Jose Tena, George Valera and others would have been signed to 2018 contracts.   Given that they were all under 18 years old when they signed, they would have to be protected after 5 playing seasons.  They have only been on team rosters, I think, for 4 seasons.   Unless there is some nuance I don't get, I think the bloggers  who are saying this are incorrect.

3. Speaking of rosters, the active roster will expand to 28 soon.   Don't count on the Indians adding prospects from their minor league system.   The two additional roster spots will likely be held for guys like Harold Ramirez and Roberto Perez.   We will need another catcher tomorrow but I look for the Indians to add Ryan Lavarnway as their backup and he would stay on the roster until Roberto is ready.   I see them doing a 60-day DL with Wilson Ramos.    While it would be nice to see them add prospects, with the AAA season now being extended through most of September, guys who might be called up will still be playing games in the minors.   They only things I see them MAYBE doing is bringing back up some or all of Kyle Nelson, Cam Hill and Francisco Perez.  Unfortunately, at this point, Alex Young is the only pitcher I could see sending to the minors although if JC Mejia is still stagnating in the bullpen by the end of Wednesday's game I could see sending him down.   So, for those of you expecting to see Oscar Gonzalez, Nolan Jones, Gabriel Arias or Cody Morris, I think it is unlikely unless someone has a season-ending injury.  The Indians have made it clear they want to sort out the guys on the active roster right now.   That is a good thing since guys like Chang, Miller, Johnson and Mercado should either be labeled as assets going forward (like Zimmer is now) or should be dumped to make room on the 40-man this off-season.

4. Speaking of rosters, part deux, I think the Indians, as they have in the past, will likely play their cards close to their vest in terms of who they are adding.   I think the addition of Francisco Perez is likely considered problematic now by some in the Indians' management group as it added to the guys who have to be dealt with in front of the Rule 5.   I think there used to be a rule where a rookie like Perez could be taken off the 40-man one time without going through waivers but that still doesn't protect him from the Rule 5.   For me, when I look at the roster, Hill and Nelson have played themselves off the roster but the Indians will look to trade guys like this ahead of the roster lockdown in November.   

5.  Speaking of prospects, every year in January Baseball America prints its book with all the top prospects for each organization.  Looking back right now EVERY one of the 59 prospects highlighted on the list for the Indians in 2021 has either graduated to the majors or is having a good season or, at least, a season that still labels the guy a legitimate prospect going forward, as a lot of guys were pushed up the ladder faster than they would have been if there had been a 2020 minor league season.  Folks, looking back on previous lists, I cannot find one time where this has happened.  Some guys always crater out during the season after the list comes out but not this year.   To me this means good player development and good overall talent within the system.   When I watch minor league games and see the stats of guys in other organizations it hits home that our guys are performing well enough to make me think this is not just a mirage.

6. Regarding the major league team, good stuff from Logan Allen and Cal Quantrill.   It is going to make it harder to dump Allen this off-season although he even sucked when he was sent to Columbus making me think spring training was a mirage for him.  Interesting to see if he gets enough innings the rest of the year to give them time to evaluate him.  I see us having a bullpen made up of guys like Mejia, Allen and maybe Hentges next year and give Morgan another year in the minors to perfect his trade.   If Bieber is healthy, having a rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, McKenzie and Quantrill next year could look really solid with some combination of Morgan and the ones of Mejia, Allen or Hentges who don't make the bullpen, become the reserve in Columbus.

7. It is the elephant in the room but is there anyone else who thinks it looks likely that Karinchak was doctoring the ball early this year and when they started cracking down he lost his effectivenes?   Not saying that happened and I would never accuse anyone of cheating but, damn, the timing is uncanny.   I remember Rick Horton, the Cardinals color analyst saying last year that he thought Karinchak had the best curveball he had ever seen.   I was shocked at the time but took the critique for what it was worth.   Looking back, I have to wonder what he was doing then that he is not doing now.   Hopefully it is just mechanical/mental and they can get him back on track.  As Hale said, Karinchak is a core player.   I would hate for him to go all Carlos Baerga on us and just crater.