Scanning the off-season videos

 First, thanks to Guardians Prospective Twitter for collecting these videos posted by various people of our prospects and major leaguers putting in their off-season work.  

Looking at these videos makes me want to do what bloggers do: render uneducated opinions. 

I will put in the disclaimer that even seasoned professional scouts might have a tough time looking at a 10-seocond vidoo clip on the internet to make a judgement on a guy and I am light years short of experience or scouting talent to make such judgements so take my comments below with a grain of salt. 

So......here goes after watching a bunch of videos.on the above Twitter feed.

Brayan Rocchio - Smooth, polished swing.and, in combination with the defense I saw last year, makes me think he is ready to continue his steep ascent up his development curve.   Now let's see if it can translate to success at AAA this season and extension of that success to the majors.

Tyler Freeman - Putting in the work in the weight room.  But the footage posted makes it look like he might be rehabbing a knee injury.   Probably not but it doesn't look like the work I would imagine a baseball player would put in.  Very much like last year with Daniel Espino when I am pretty sure he was shown jumping up to a very high jump box for some unknown reason.  Then, as I recall, an injury popped up on his knee followed by a shoulder injury.  Just sayin'.

Jose Cedeno - Catcher from the Dominican League last summer, his swing is sweet is compact and balanced and he apparently has some defensive chops, as well.  He looks the most polished of our Dominican guys who we have video of this winter.   Keep him away from Tampa Bay or Texas...or anybody else, in a trade.

 Rafael Ramirez - Totally off-balance on his swing in soft-toss BP.  Looks like he needs a lot of work on his swing, especially if he wants to get to whatever powere he might have.

Yerlin Luis - These Dominican guys before they sign are all projection.   Luis stepping across the plate when he is hitting left-handed seems to scream "I need a lot of work on my balance at the plate."

Bryant Capellan - A Dominican pitcher, the Guardians seem to be signing a number of older players, especially pitchers, out of Latin America.  Don't know if they think they can develop these guys faster and so beat the ridiculous Rule 5 rules or if they just think older guys can take advanced coaching better.  But Capellan is 20 and he hasn't broken out of the Dominican League yet.  Probably just an organizational player at this point who just happened to post something on social media showing he is working out and still cares about professional baseball.

Diego Navarro - Again, an older Latin American pitcher still playing in the Dominican, Navarro is a big guy.  Like Capellan, tough to tell what we really have here but at least he is working on his craft.

Manuel Mejias - Another of our young, Latin, catchers, he looks good as a switch hitter with a compact swing and some bulk where future power may come from.  Video of him hitting ooks good to me.

Wagner Castillo - Another, older Latin pitcher who stll hasn't left the DSL, showing he is putting in his work in the off-season.

Angel Contreras - A solid-looking Latin infielder putting in cage work in Columbia.  His swing looks a little long to me with a shoulder bat rest and a hitch before he starts his swing. 

Jordan Jones - A late round draftee who is 25 already but showing a 96 mph fastball consistently in his off-season work.  Obviously, guys like this need secondary pitches and consistency but he has always looked like a potential reliever to me.

Jonathon Martinez - A January 2023 signeee, he looks raw in his video in the field, just getting to balls at the last second and taking backhands instead of sliding in front of the ball.  Again, as raw as raw can be but a lot of work to be done here, it appears.  His hitting looks like it is geared to a HR cut.

Nate Furman - Our 4th round pick this past year, he looks physically solid but his swing looks like he is pull-oriented making contact out in front of the plate.  You might guess that he would be letting pitches get a little deeper in the zone, especially in batting practice.  His swing, as it appears now, could be susceptible to changeups and tailing fastballs away.  Not what I expected to see in a guy as polished is based on his physical maturity, training and bat path.

 Angel Martinez - Looks exactly like what I would like to see in a prospect like him.  Maybe his power surge this past year is for real and we might look at him as more of an offense-first infielder.

Daniel Espino - Good to see him working out, strengthening his pitching arm.  Just really concerning that he missed an entire season with very little information from the Guardians.  Again, if I am remembering right, weird to see him last winter doing jumps up to a ridiculously high box...and then having a knee issue in ST last year.  Could be remembering this wrong, however.

Ryan Webb - Good to see this guy back on the mound gettng his work in this winter, giving an indication that he will come to ST healthy.  Here is a guy who might really take off this year and could be this year's Tanner Bibee.  

Nelson Aranguren - Looks like a big, strong guy who can hit the ball a long way.

Jonathon Rodriguez - I think (and hope) that the teams who slept on him in the Rule 5 this winter live to regret this.  He is a young, strong guy who has made some noise in Puerto Rico this winter.   I think he could make a huge jump this coming season and be one of our top 20, if not top 10 prospects by the end of the season.

Trey Benton - Video of him cranking up his fastball velo this winter is exciting and falls in line with what others have been saying that he might just be the sleeper prospect of 2023.

Welbyn Francisca - Highly touted prospect in the upcoming international signing period, his video has him swinging out of his shoes selling out for power.  Raw and a lot of work to be done here but some size and athleticism on this guy is already visible.

Victor Izturis - Another one of our Latin catching prospects and a highly paid one, at that, his lefthanded swing path looks loopy to me and he appearst to be hitting balls too much off his front foot.  Question marks on this guy but, with his large bonus, obviously huge potential, too.  And he is a catcher!

These aren't nearly all the videos on Guardians Prospective but they are all interesting.  Thanks again to that Twitter site for their great work.

Are there any relievers that we still want to look at/sign up?

 Not to fret over unnecessary stuff here but in looking at the list of unsigned relievers I am wondering if we want to jump into the pool on this one.  

Let's start out by being real.  No remaining reliever is going to move the needle on an increase in wins this year like we expect that Josh Bell might.  However, bringing in a veteran reliever or two may help prevent a bullpen implosion caused by injury or poor performance.  Once we get to the playoffs, like Shaw last year, whoever we bring in might not even be needed and, if needed, is not enough for us to pull ahead of the best of the AL, meaning, like this year where we got a favorable playoff draw, we are likely to be out in round 1 or round 2.    But a good reliever or two might cement us MAKING the playoffs again.  So, while not critical, a good like-to-have.

Unfortunately, like all of free agency, the value set for relievers in this market is extreme.   You could be talking $5-8 million a year for 2-3 years to get a decent reliever.

So, maybe like the starting pitcher free agent market, we stay with what we currently have because what is out there is overpriced with many of our best prospects being starting pitchers 0.5-2 years away from being serious contributors.  

Don't know, just throwing it out there.   So, let's talk relievers.

LEFTY RELIEVERS

Look, we could use a veteran lefty reliever.   We don't NEED one as we have Hentges, but to protect his arm we could use a second lefty who we can count on.  So let's look and talk.

Andrew Chafin - He will likely be the most pricy but we should kick the tires.  Looking at our minor leagues I don't see a lot of guys Chafin would block if we signed him to a 2-3 year deal.   That is unlike the right side of our minor league pitching prospects where I could see 3-4 of our top 30 prospects being relievers when they hit the majors for good either this year or next year.

Brad Hand - A guy who might be in a REASONABLE (don't necessarily read "OUR") price range and could be had on a one year deal.  His playoff numbers stink but, aside from that, he would be a veteran presence in our bullpen, if healthy.   Plus, obviously, he has closing experience.

Matt Moore - Another guy like Chafin who command large bucks over multiple years.  Again, kicking the tires is not a bad idea.

Daniel Norris - A bargain basement guy, in my opinion.  But right where we like to shop.   High K rate but high ERA, too, with Detroit last year.  

Aroldis Chapman - Just for completeness sake I am adding him but for a team that really values character and fit in a clubhouse that is more than the sum of its parts due to unity and camaraderie, don't think he fits here.   Maybe on a minor league deal with an opt out for him on March 30th.  Maybe.

Will Smith - Historically a solid reliever who will likely get a higher-than-expected (years and dollars) contract, we kick the tires and see if he ends up having to settle for a one year deal.  However, if he does, he likely goes back to Houston or Atlanta.

TJ McFarland - Another former Cleveland guy, coming in on a prove me contract or, likely, a minor league deal, I like him a lot.  Just a veteran left-handed reliever, sort of the lefty equivalent of Bryan Shaw

Caleb Smith - Talking about a lefty Bryan Shaw, here is your doppleganger.   Again, one year prove it deal I am on board with looking at him.

RIGHTY RELIEVERS

Do we need one?  Like a veteran starting pitcher, probably not unless we have an injury or someone flames out.  Do we really expect De Los Santos to repeat his performance from last year?  Maybe.  But what if he doesn't?  So the question is do we upgrade or do we just place another call to Bryan Shaw?   My hunch is that, like Shaw last year, this guy would go to ST on a minor league deal.  Let's take a look:

Bryan Shaw - Would you come back to an organization that dissed you for a playoff spot?  I don't know.  But if you are getting paid, are in a role you are comfortable and familiar with with players and coaches you are comfortable with, why not if you don't have a better opportunity (read: reasonable major league offer).

Matt Wisler - A great option, I just don't see him getting stuck accepting a minor league deal.   He does have experience as an opener and, at a younger age, is probably a better pitching version of Shaw.  Again, I doubt he has to settle for a minor league deal, which is what I think we are left with here, given our roster situation, total and relief pitcher-wise, and could replace Morgan and be an upgrade, I think.  Not needed to replace Morgan so probably not cost effective, but, just sayin'.

Wily Peralta - The BMW of available righty relievers, if we can get him on a reasonable one year deal I pull the trigger today, assuming he is a good clubhouse presence.  He is an upgrade over Shaw and gives us protection for our biggest potential weakness, De Los Santos.  No way this guy has to settle for a minor league deal and he is likely looking at 3 years, maybe $20 million.  Not in our price range.

David Phelps - See Peralta.  I don't see us affording him given how the reliever free agent market has set itself this off-season.

Darren O'Day - Think Bryan Shaw but two years older.  Maybe a minor league deal is possible with him if Shaw goes elsewhere.

Michael Fulmer - Second tier after Peralta and Phelps.  Still out of our price range as he gets a multi-year major league deal for good bucks, I think.

Craig Stammen - Another guy, like Shaw and O'Day, who might have to accept a minor league deal, he is worth a look as a solid veteran presence in the bullpen, like Shaw was last year.  But, if you are going to add him instead of Shaw, it better be because Shaw is hurt or likely to be after his useage last year.   If Shaw is good, you go with him for his loyalty and professionalism.

SUMMARY

So, there you have it.  We NEED a veteran lefty reliever, even at the price of having to DFA Benson.  We don't need a veteran righty reliever and I don't see us paying market value for a good one, meaning we shop in the bargain basement section again and come away with someone like Shaw, O'Day or Stammen or, if all the stars align, Wisler on a one year deal at the expense of DFAing Benson right now.

What's wrong with baseball...financially speaking

 OK, the numbers that have been floated around is that revenue sharing is about $50 million per small market team.   Additionally, there is $50 million per team for the MLB.TV baseball contract.  

Not even counting merchandise and licensing fees.

So, if you believe those numbers, each team would have $100 million to spend off the top.  This, presumably, would be used for salaries.

So why wouldn't it work to make teams spend that money on player salaries?   That is, create a salary floor but without the idea of a salary cap.  

Truthfully, I don't know.

But I do know these things:

a) There are not enough good players out there to have every team have to have a salary floor of $100 million.  

b) Teams like the Guardians, who are functioning, and winning, with young players, would be penalized by having to bring in mediocre players and pay them inflated salaries.

So, what is the answer?

1) Raise the minimum salary to $1 million a player per year.

2) Ceate a 'soft' salary floor.  That is, a team's total salary is what they are ACTUALLY paying out in salaries PLUS a percentage (e.g., 75% of what is offered or less if the offer is below what that player would likely earn in arbitration or free agency) of what they offered to their own players in terms of extensions that the player turned down.  So, let's say, for example, Bieber was scheduled to make $12 million this year and maybe $14 million next year in arbitration.  If we offer his $16 million a year for 3 years and he turned it down, we would get to add an additional $3 million to our actual payroll this year because we offered Bieber money above the salary he will make in arbitration.  Let's say we do this with all of our better players: So, we offer the following players the following extensions:

Gimenez - $25 million over 3 years

McKenzie - $40 million over 4 years

Kwan - $23 million over 4 years

Gonzalez - $10 million over 4 years

Hentges - $9 million over 3 years

and so on

If our guys accept these extensions we break through the $100 million salary floor.  However, if these guys do not accept the extensions we still make a lot of ground up moving towards our $100 million salary floor .  By my estimate, looking at the numbers above and estimating what other extensions might look like, just offering these guys this money we could easily make up, at that 75% rate, $30 million towards our $100 salary floor without paying these players any more this coming season than the scale they would earn as young players or in aribtration if they are arbitration eligible.

The $100 million floor is based on the average salary during the season so a team could start out under that floor but make it up by a trading deadline move for an expensive veteran.   Teams that fall below that floor would have to split up the money between all the players who played during the season, based on their active days on the roster that year.

The beauty of this system for the small market teams is that they use this money to extend their own players.  The Guardians actually did this a number of years ago to buy out free agent years from their young players.  Those players bit because of the financial guarantees vs betting on staying healty and productive.  The only difference between what is being done now and what I am suggesting is that you create a salary floor and you cut the small market teams slack by rewarding them for offering their own players extensions to keep them here. 

Now, admittedly, Cleveland is in a good place in the system I am concocting here as they have young players they want to extend.  But each team has to decide how it is going to allocate their dollars.  Overpay for a free agent or overpay for their own young talent.  From a Guardians; fan perspective, the latter looks pretty good right now.   Even if it was the Indians of the 80s and early 90s, spending money on our own players would be better than bringing in mediocre veterans.

Hey, the MLBPA will not like this plan because they want these mediocre veterans to be overpaid AND they don't want small market teams keeping their own star players because those players could likely make more money in free agency.  I get it.  Imagine Bryan Shaw having to play for $1 million this year after the career he has had and how his body would get beat up.   It's unfair, to be sure.  But, again, that is still $1 million.  Imagne Triston McKenzie being tied to the Guardians through his age 30 season instead of hitting the open market after his age 28 season?  The Yankees, Dodgers and teams like that would not like not being able to possibly get Triston for two more years.   

In summary, with a salary floor, someone is going to be overpaid.  But my system will help get the younger players paid by their own team, incentivize those teams to extend their own talent and keep teams from sitting on their money.

There are probably myriad other systems that would work.  This is just mine.

Cleveland Guardians' Christmas

 It was an interesting leadup to Christmas for the Guardians.

1. This year they shopped for presents at Macy's instead of at 5 Below and came away with Josh Bell

2. They also went to Target to get a reasonably priced catcher in Mike Zunino. 

3. Realizing that it is better to give than to receive they

    a. Gave away Owen Miller to charity (uh, Milwaukee)

    b. Traded a major league-ready Carlos Vargas for far off lottery ticket in Ross Carver

    c.  Traded a major league-ready Nolan Jones for a lottery ticket for April 1, 2026 in Juan Brito

    d. Lost a couple of minor league relievers in Nic Enright and Kevin Kelly in the Rule 5 - and while 

         losing them is a bummer we may still get them back AND it shows how strong our farm system is.

4. Did their usual bargain shopping before Christmas to get some minor league invitees and, no doubt, as usual, will be scouring the closeout/discount racks for after Christmas sales like they got two years ago with Blake Parker and last year with Enyel De Los Santos.   

All, in all, it will be an exciting Christmas at the Slider household as the anticipation of seeing a .260/.330/.440 slash line from Bell and 25 HRs from Zunino will have visions of division championships dancing in Slider's head.

Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night!

Preparation for inevitable injuries and poor performance. What happens if...

 Here we are moving towards Christmas, and, in terms of 2023 regular season records, every team is tied for first place and every team has a fighting chance of making the playoffs.

So as free agents go off the board and it looks like the Guardians may only do their Jan/early Feb. bargain basement shopping for middle relievers and backup catchers, let's postulate what could happen, especially if injuries occur, position-by-position.

Before we get into that, remember that the only players that MIGHT be DFA'd at this point without losing a significant talent are"

Will Benson - He literally came out of nowhere last year.  His career was floundering and his inability to put bat-to-ball and that he looked like just a slightly better than ML average outfielder made it likely that he would quickly become yet another AAAA player drifting from team to team.  However, the Guardians took a shine to him because he oozes athleticism and made some good plays in CF.  Still, if one player could lose his roster spot, Benson is it.  

Tim Herrin - Herrin came out of nowhere to pitch himself into position to get a spot on the roster this winter.   That being said, he appears far from being ML-ready.   In a perfect world they have protected him from the Rule 5 and given themselves a year or two to see if he develops into a Hentges-like lefty.   Or, they could just DFA him if they need his roster spot, which would likely be totally stupid as in the Rule 5 we could get him back if he didn't stick in the majors.  By putting him on the roster and then DFAing him, we lose him with no chance of getting him back if he is claimed by another team on waivers.

Konnor Pilkington - Conventional wisdom is that Pilkington will be stored at AAA, biding his time in case he is needed as a longman/spot starter in the majors due to lack of performance or injury (see below).  There is a school of thought, however, that says that the only reason Pilkington hasn't gone the way of Tanner Tully and Kirk McCarty is because of the flashes he showed last year, flashes that totally outdistanced his stuff, in my opinion.

Bryan Lavastida - Lavastida's terrible 2022 really took the steam out of his prospect status.  So much so that 'experts' ((me included) seem to forget he is still a prospect.   He is clearly a candidate to be DFA'd if we bring in another backup catcher.  Not that I would like that at all as I think you have to consider 2022 a possible anomaly.

Richie Palacios - As much as it pains me to say, Palacios brings nothing to the table.  The only reason that he would remain on the roster is if they think he can take a huge step forward in position versatility or power.  Aside from that, he is just a good baseball player with no outstanding tools.  Great to stash at AAA (see below) until George Valera is ready.  But, as much as it pains me, I could see him losing his roster spot in a pinch.  Probably the least likely of the guys above, however.

So, with that out of the way, let's look at our roster

CATCHER

We will either roster a backup catcher who was a minor league signing with a spring training invite or we will give the job to Lavastida or Bo Naylor.  As much as they want Naylor to develop, I don't know if it is worth it to lose one of the four players above just to roster a veteran backup.  Ideally Naylor would be your backup with Lavastida at AAA.  They could flip this and let Lavastida start the season as the backup and, about halfway through the season bring up Naylor and send down Lavastiday.   If Zunino gets injured and misses time we could see the catching duo of Naylor/Lavastida sooner than we would like.   If Zunino would have to be on the 60-day DL, we would likely bring up a veteran we have stashed at AAA along with either Lavastida or Naylor

INFIELD

The expected infield roster would be Ramirez, Rosario, Gimenez, Bell, Josh Naylor and Gabriel Arias.  That gives us only one utility guy, Arias.  Whether we go with two (Tyler Freeman?) stick with just the starters and Arias, Arias offers us coverage at all 4 infield postions with Freeman being the next man up.  As much as it pains me to say, this is a bit of a black hole without Ernie Clement and Owen Miller but I would rather give Freeman his first, true shot if an injury occurs.   If two of our infielders (counting Freeman) get hurt, we are looking at bringing up Rocchio or Tena earlier than expected. Losing Nolan Jones was an issue because, if he got some experience at first, he could have been our stash at AAA if we needed a first baseman outfielder.   I would like to see Palacios get some time at 1B and 2B in ST and opening the season at AAA for him to be our emergency guy at AAA. So, just like catcher, quality prospect depth in case of injuries but not a lot that is currently ML ready.

OUTFIELD

We are the most set here of any position player area.  The roster should open with Kwan, Straw, Gonzalez and Brennan with Palacios and Benson stashed at AAA.  I also really wish we would teach Benson to play 1B.  Again, losing Nolan Jones really hurts our depth here.

So, position player wise we will likely have 2 catchers, 7 infielders and 4 outfielders.   This gives Francona the flexibility to go with 13 pitchers to to start and then we can see how that goes.  While we have decent depth at all postion player postions, our depth guys are just not quite ready for the major leagues.  If we can avoild DL stints among the position players until mid-season, our depth might have caught up and be ML ready.

ROTATION

This is probably the strength of this team, depth-wise.  Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Plesac and Civale give us a solid rotation, backed by Pilkington, Battenfield and even Morgan and Morris as long openers.  Down at AAA we have Curry and Gaddis who started games for us last year and Allen, Williams, Bibee and Espino about 1/2 year away.  I think, except for a catastrophic series of injuries to our starters we could weather a small storm and keep moving forward.  We sure did it last year, albeit with a little more starting pitching depth of guys we could DFA if needed (Tully, McCarty).  

BULLPEN

This was a strength of our team last year and, barring injuries, should be again this year.  However, we are VERY thin at the ML level.  Looking at the 40 man, counting Morris, Morgan and Herrin, I see nine true relievers.  If the Guardians play their cards right, however, they also have quality relievers in waiting at AAA who are already on the 40 man.  Pilkington, Gaddis, Curry, Herrin and even the non-rostered Battenfield could become quality ML relievers this year, in my opinion.  The key to turn the thin ML relief thing into a depth strength is make the commitment to these guys as relievers.  I really don't see much of a future for Morgan, Battenfield (who was a reliever in college and his first couiple of years as a pro), Gaddis and Curry as major league starters but I see them being Stephan-Karinchak-Hentges types in the bullpen, and as early as this year, given their stuff.

OVERALL SUMMARY

Overall, the only concern I currently have, believe it or not, is our infield depth and at catcher.  Brandon Drury would have been a nice add, but not at $17 million for two years so we have to go with Arias and Freeman and train them up at multiple positions.  BTW, seeing Arias at AAA in the outfield shows me how athletic the guy is.  There is no comparison between Arias and Rosario in the OF.  Arias is just that much better, NATURALLY.   As far as catcher, I think that it is a waste to bring in a veteran as a backup.   We lose a player to DFA if we do that and I just don't want to lose any more assets for a guy who would be like Sandy Leon, a 3 month placeholder for Naylor.  It is not good business to do that and I think their hand will be forced, hopefully, to start the season with Naylor on the roster or bite the bullet and give Lavistida the backup job.  So, as the White Sox and other teams can tell you, crap happens that can kill your season.  Aside from those disasters we are set at most positions with enough quality backups and backups to the backups available that we won't, as we did in the 80s ask "Who?" when some guy got called up from AAA to fill a hole.  Or even in the 2000s where we have seen guys called up for expediency because they were fungible assets who could be DFA'd when our player was healthy again..

Updated Guardians Top 50 Prospects

 As we have had some movement in the roster it feels like time to do an updated list.  So here goes:

1. Gavin Williams

2. George Valera

3. Bo Naylor

4. Tyler Freeman

5. Daniel Espino

6. Tanner Bibee

7. Brayan Rocchio

8. Gabriel Arias

9. Cody Morris

10. Chase DeLauter

Comments: The only change in this group is that DeLauter moves up one rung with the trade of Nolan Jones.

11. Jose Tena

12. Angel Martinez

13. Jhonkensy Noel

14. Xzavion Curry

15. Logan T. Allen

16. Joey Cantillo

17. Jake Fox

18. Will Brennan

19. Justin Campbell

20. Jonathon Rodriguez

Comments: Some movement here due to both Jones and Vargas being traded.Also, Jonathon Rodriguez moving up into the top 20 (from 43).  I like this guy more and more and can see him continue his upward trend, turning it into a true breakout season this year.  Brennan also jumps a couple of rungs.  I still think Curry returns to the majors this year as a leverage reliever.

21. Juan Brito

22. Hunter Gaddis

23. Peyton Battenfield

24. Jaison Chourio

25. Petey Halpin

26. Ross Carver

27. Parker Messick

28. Will Benson

29. Bryan Lavastida

30. Doug Nikhazy

Comments: Lots of movement in this group with both Brito and Carver, our returns on Jones and Vargas, respectively, making this list.  I still hate the Jones trade (our #10 for our now #20) and the Carver trade is questionable (our #15 for our now #26).  Lots of question marks here both at the lower level of the minors and guys at the AAA/ML bench role who are at the tipping point of their career relative to being AAAA players or solid major leaguers.  From this group will come some of the strength and, we hope, the true depth of our farm system.  all 10 of these guys break out this year and we can make August trades without impacting the real strength of our farm system. Put another way, our second tier of prospects would play vs most team's middle first tier.  This would give us incredible leverage to pull off a trade to fill a hole in our roster that makes itself apparant during the first half of the season.

31. Milan Tolentino

32. Angel Genao

33. Tanner Burns

34. Tim Herrin

35. Jacob Zibin

35. Ethan Hankins

36. Alexfri Planez

37. Isaiah Greene

38. Joe Lampe

39. Mason Hickman

40. Ryan Webb

Comments: Here is where it gets interesting.  Guys could break out here and I am crossing my fingers that some of them do that or at least put in solid prospect seasons that move them up the ranks as we graduate more guys to Cleveland this year.

41. Tommy Mace

42. Jack Leftwich

43. Gabriel Rodriguez

44. Nate Furman

45. Lenny Torres Jr.

46. Cade Smith

47. Luis Durango Jr.

48. Carson Tucker

49. Hunter Stanley

50. Will Dion

51. Jackson Humphries

Comments: Furman and Humphries break into this list.   There are probably lots of other 2022 and 2021 draftees who can step up this year and break into this last 10 or even higher up this list.  Again, if we get solid production from this 10 and some of our recent draftees take a step forward we could truly be in the golden age of Cleveland prospects.   One can dream, can't one.

Final comment:  You know, this list may not be done changing yet.  There is still the possibility that Amed Rosario is traded which might bring young talent back, causing this list to shift once again before spring training.  If everything stays the same on the large scale (or if we get a real, breathing prospect out of the Owen Miller trade, I will update accordingly. 

Have a wonderful holiday season!

Connor Joe? What do you know!

 That didn't take long.

A major league trade where Colorado traded a 30-year old RH hitting OF/1B who hit .238 with 7 HRs in 467 PA in Colorado this year to Pittsburgh for their 3rd round pick, from 2020, RHP Nick Garcia.  

Not that Nick Garcia is going to be a great ML pitcher.  No one is saying that.

But when you compare Owen Miller's stats in Cleveland and project what they would have been in Colorado, you gotta think, with his age and position versatility, that Owen Miller is significantly more valuable than Connor Joe.

And Nick Garcia is significantly more valuable than air!

Post for a Sunday - Things that make you go hmmmmm.

First, anyone else hate the college football commitment process.  I absolutely hate it.  Top prospects commit to colleges early, only to back out later, sometimes as late as national signing day.   How can you rejoice in your college getting a commitment from a 5-star or 4-star two years out and then spend the rest of the time waiting for the guy to de-commit even though he keeps saying on social media how solid his commitment is.  I mean, coaches change, programs go on probation, they sign guys from the portal who play your position.   There are valid reasons to de-commit.  But 'I changed my mind'.  Really?  Then wait until you won't change your mind to make your FIRST commitment.  Geez!

Second, does it really matter what any team does if the Astros keep getting better?   Yes, I know the Guardians got better by signing Bell and, hopefully, better by signing Zunino.   They still have problems in their division as Chicago gets better by signing Clevinger and Benitendi and even better by Anderson getting healthy.  They may not even lose much ground if Vaughan takes off after going to first base full time even though they lost Abreu.  Minnesota got Vazquez and if they backfill with solid ML hitters where they have weaknesses, they are going to give us trouble, as well.  But, still.  Houston gets Abreu to play 1B and gets Brantley back?  I mean, looking at it objectively, Houston was 25 meters ahead of us in a 100 meter dash and this offseason we may have cut 10 meters off that.  They are still 15 meters ahead and if they don't fall on their faces, they are going to win the race easily.

Finally, so far this off-season here is the Guardians' scorecard:

Gained

Josh Bell

Mike Zunino

Ross Carver (#30 prospect in Guardians top 50)

Juan Brito (not listed in MLB Pipeline's top 30 Guardians prospects)

Lost

Owen Miller

Bryan Shaw

Carlos Vargas (#17 in Arizona top 30)

Nolan Jones (#11 in Colorado top 30)

Tanner Tully

Kirk McCarty

Nic Enright (contingent on him staying in the majors)

Kevin Kelly (contingent on him staying in the majors)

Thoughts

We still have almost all of our top 30 prospects still intact.   I hope we sign someone like Brandon Drury and a quality lefty reliever.   

Interesting quote on the Mets: From MLB Trade Rumors, talking about why the Mets are content with a $350+ million payroll and the $100+ million penalty that involves: "...as the Mets want to win but aren't interested in trading from their farm system."  Hmm, where have I heard that one before (hint: from me).  Simplistic?  Yes.  But when billionaires are saying and living it, putting their own money where their mouths are, makes you think, doesn't it?  As I said: You can go to the bank to get more money but you can't go to the bank to get more prospects.  The days of buying the Babe Ruths of baseball for a hefty sum where they are young major leaguers are long gone.  Now you pay the big bucks and get Babe Ruth in his prime.  

Anyone left we should be interested in?

 So, free agency is sort of winding down.  Let's look at the remaining top free agents and see if there is anyone else we could be interested in.

First things first: We saw what happened when we signed our stopgap catcher.  Although he was not a player who was likely to make the 26 man roster this coming season, the loss of someone like Owen Miller for nothing is still, in my opinion, an unwarranted loss.  

So, with that in mind, I think that there are only 3 players on the current roster who are possibilities to be DFA'd if we sign another free agent.  Let me be clear, however.  Loss of any one of these guys for nothing is not appropriate.  

Will Benson

Bryan Lavastida

Richie Palacios

Again, like Nolan Jones, Carlos Vargas and Owen Miller, none of these three guys are likely to be a significant player for this team in 2023, with all being redundant to the future of this team.  Like I said, however, they still have value as players and they are NOT DFA flotsam and jetsam, although some bloggers may try to tell you they are.

So, now that we see that it would be painful to add anyone to our roster, let's look at who is available from the top 50 tier of free agents (according to MLBTR) and see if anyone makes sense.

5. Dansby Swanson -SS- No way this guy makes sense for us.  We have too many SS in waiting already

23. Nathan Eovaldi RHSP- Given that he would likely slot in at #4 in our rotation and what middle tier free agent pitchers are getting and that we have reinforcements at AAA/AA ready to go, I way no way to him, too.

24. Taylor Rogers RHRP - He would only be of interest to me on a 1-year prove it deal for $5 million.  Aside from that I would pass.  We have bullpen guys are the FO has been very adept at shopping in the bargain basement and coming up with real finds (Enyel De Los Santos, for example)

25. JD Martinez - RH DH - A very intriguing guy but with Bell and Naylor, and the latter not REALLY being a RFer BEFORE his injury, I don't see the fit.  Still, if you want a bat and can get him on a prove it deal of $15 million, I might take a shot and do with Naylor what you can do (RF or 1B but not against most lefties.   Again, I vote no on this one but could easily get behind it if it happens.

33. Jurickson Profar - OF - I just don't see him being an upgrade, especially after watching him with San Diego this year.

37.  Brandon Drury - RH 1B, 2B, #B, LF, RF - The most interesting guy on this list to me but his OB skills are not in the Guardians' wheelhouse.  Still, his power and flexibibility on a 1 year, $10 million deal might be worth a look. It is guys like this that, during a long season with the grind and injuries that invariably happen, would be great to have to just plug and play.

39. Andrew Chafin - LHRP - Don't know why he isn't signed and I don't think he is in our price range but signing him to a 1 year deal is helpful to our pen and only raises the pitchers on our 40-man to 20, which is a number I like to see.  Again, it is about money, if we can get him for 1 year at $7 million I kick the tires.

40. Jean Segura - 2B - No fit with this organization but an intriguing guy

41. Michael Wacha - RHSP - What I said before about Eovaldi

43. Michael Brantley - DH - I love this guy but we have no need for his handedness or skillset at this point in his career.  I will kick myself later but if I had to go for a DH I would go for JD Martinez first.

44. Michael Conforto = OF - I just think the teams trying to grab at straws who lost out on other players will drive his price up too high.

45 - Adam Ottavino - RHRP - Always in the market for these veterans but, again, I think his price will be too high.  1 year at $6 million is all I would go for a guy we night not even need but would be great to have.

47. Justin Turner - INF - See the talent but not the need.  With our infield and outfield, he is only an incremental improvement and, even being a veteran hitter, I just don't see a place for him.  Yet, for the right price, I could be convinced.

48. Corey Kluber - RHSP - He could be an innings eater but we don't need that.

50. Drew Rucinski - RHRP - - Right price?  Probably not.  Need - probably not.  Minor league deal.  Absolutely.

Best of the Rest - 

Gary Sanchez - Backup catcher?  Sure, perfect situation as he can hit and he can catch a little bit.

Will Myers - Like Drury, that extra piece that contenders need and that they buy at the trade deadline.  

Trey Mancini -  Amazing he is still available.  Still, I am not convinced that Oscar Gonzalez is going to be a thing going forward.  I hope that he is as his potential is massive.  But, if he tanks, Valera may not be ready and Brennan may not be the correct handedness for what we need for that position.  Again, Mancini is just a veteran hitter.

Any of the rest of Cueto, Fulmer, Kimbrel, Lugo, Moore might have some use if we know a guy is going to the 60 day DL already.

Well, that's it. We could stand pat or spend more money.  It ain't over until its over and it ain't over yet.

Air

 Air is all around us.  It is free.  We can breathe as much as we can and no one charges us for it.  Right now, there is a lot of it (hope that stays that way).  

That's the thing, though.  Air is not really a commodity.  You can't really put a price on it because we need it but it has no value.   

To put this in baseball terms, when I read that a player has been traded for a player to be named later or cash, my mind immediately defaults to him being traded for air.  

Owen Miller was traded for air today.  I am not saying that I think that Owen Miller was going to be on our 26 next spring or that he should remain on our 40 this winter.  Just saying that he was worth more than air.  

Trading Owen Miller for air as the Guardians did today is just a smokescreen to make it look like we didn't DFA him.  That is important because when you look at the players that are DFA'd as this time of the year they are generally 4A players.  Most, if not all of them, do not even have the major league career that Miller has had.

Why am I bringing this up?  Because Cleveland fans tend to underestimate the value of our borderline players.

Tobias Myers (let's just call him AIR Myers) brought Tampa Junior Caminero.  If you thinking there is an air reference here, it's because Myers, in a baseball sense, immediately turned into air, meaning we trade Junior Caminero for air.  

We traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito who is likely going to turn into air down the road.

So when, for the millionth time I hear a Cleveland fan say "He stinks, there is no way we could get anything good for him" I think back on the Junior Caminero (and other) trades.

I am pretty sure that Owen Miller, at this point in his career, is worth more than air.

It is becoming too typically a disappointment that we keep giving players away for something that is free for us all to breath.  And that is not what Miller is worth, despite what the Eeyore-like fans of the Cleveland Guardians might try to tell you.  If Tobias Myers got Tampa Junor Caminero, if Juan Brito got Colorado Nolan Jones, Owen Miller should have brought back more than air.

The FO needs to do better with our assets.  They can't just throw them away for nothing and the better ones need to get back quality, equal value or better.   Otherwise, in a year or two we won't be able to maintain the talent level on this team.    Owen Miller isn't the problem, he is just a symptom of the problem with the FO.   They simply can't turn prospects into value...they only turn them into air.

Post for a Wednesday: window dressing? Same product, different price. Why not William Contreras? Houston, we have a lineup issue.

 Wow, the free agent market is crazy both in dollars and length of contracts.  Imagine Carlos Correa playing at 41 years old for over 20 million?!?  Well, maybe with his current guaranteed contract he might decide he can actually take a lead off of first base and steal a base.    So let's dig into our Wednesday and see where it takes us.

WINDOW DRESSING

The Guardians signed Mike Zunnino to a $6 million, one year deal.  I question this as Austin Hedges was going to get about $4 million in free agency.  The question is why would the Guards pay $6 million to a guy who doesn't know our pitching staff, who is coming off of surgery, who is a career .200 hitter without plate discipline who doesn't bunt?  You know what they say about putting lipstick on a pig, right?  I don't see this as an upgrade or even a lateral move.  Unless the Guardians are pretty sure Hedges is going to have ongoing concussion problems, I don't get this.   I get the one-year deal, just not the player getting that deal.  Can the Guardians really be desperate enough that they are buying a lottery ticket (Zuninno returing to his 2021 form and being able to be as effective with a pitching staff he doesn't know as Hedges, who has worked these guys for years, would be).  Just because the guy hit a lot of HRs in a recent year?  Seems like a PR move, a desperation move after getting beaten out of Sean Murphy.  And speaking of Sean Murphy...

SAME PRODUCT, DIFFERENT PRICE

I have seen a number of sites that rated the Sean Murphy trade.  The A's have gotten anywhere from a "C" to an "F" in this deal.   I previously posted the package I thought was equivalent to what the Braves gave up:

Tanner Bibee

Tanner Burns

Richie Palacios

Konnor Pilkington or Peyton Battenfield

Yet, Andre Knott is saying the package the A's wanted from us started with Daniel Espino.   I don't know what 'source' Knott was getting his information but this seems like corporate BS to me, just like 'We made and offer to Jose Abreu'.    Could the A's really ask for Espino and others from the Guardians and settle with the lower quality package they got from Atlanta/Milwaukee.  If we were in constant communication with Oakland up until the deal was made I can't believe that the above package wouldn't have sealed the deal.  I mean, the best prospect the A's got back was Kyle Muller, who wasn't even close to being a top 10 prospect in baseball whereas Espino was like 15th or so.   

If Knott is correct (personally, I think he was played in this case) what does that say about what other GMs think of the intelligence of our front office that they would think we would just give away prospects?  Well, I guess Oakland could have used recent evidence (Tobias Myers, Nolan Jones, Carlos Vargas) as evidence that we don't value prospects.  

But, in the end, if Oakland was thinking we were that desperate, it didn't work.  But this  trade does bring up one queston...

WHY NOT WILLIAM CONTRERAS?

In the grades of the Murphy trade everyone is saying the 3rd, facilitating party, Milwaukee, was the big winner in this trade.  They got a young catcher who can hit but is questionable behind the plate AND two relievers who are ML ready for their #8 prospect whose big resume' point is he stole 88 bases this year in the minors.   Now Contreras may eventually wind up as a DH but he is a catcher who has caught in the majors.   If you want a stopgap until Bo Naylor is ready AND you want to ncrease your offense and you want a young player who can help you at different positions in the future, Contreras seems like a good fit to me, especially when Sandy Alomar could have worked with him.  Looking at what the Brewers gave up, I would think that Richie Palacios or Will Brennan would have gotten the job done.   It would be nice to ask Antonnetti what the inner workings of this deal were and why the Guardians did not jump in once they know the Braves were willing to trade catching.  This is something that I hope doesn't haunt them this season but I can't believe $6 million for Zuninno was better than a prospect for Contreras and a couple of relief pitchers.  

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A LINEUP PROBLEM

Changing gears, I want to talk about an elephant in the room that no one else seems to have mentioned.  

Last year the Guardians team leader in grounding into double plays was Amed Rosario.   Then the Guardians signed Josh Bell.  He grounded into 22 double plays, most of that in Washington where he was actually hitting the ball.  This mirrored 2021 where he also grounded into 22.   

Projections for this year have Rosario returning to the #2 hole and Bell hitting 4th.  To me this is totally unreasonable.  How can you have 2 double play machines at the top of the order for a team that doesn't hit a lot of HRs and plays station-to-station baseball?  It just doesn't work.  By signing Bell I think Francona is almost forced, statistically speaking, to change his order to the following"

Kwan

Gimenez

Ramirez

Gonzalez

Bell

Naylor

Rosario

Straw

Zuninno

Gonzalez doesn't walk much so it is less likely a double play would be in order when Bell came to bat.  Ditto for Rosario hitting 7th.  Less likely someone will be on base.   Will the elimination of the uber-shift help Bell and Rosario?  Maybe with Bell but I doubt it with Rosario.  However, I will leave that to the analytics people to make that call.  Considering this at face value, however, no way do Bell and Rosario hit at the top of the order sandwiching Ramirez.  That, on paper, would kill Ramirez's year and might totally negate the advantages gained by replacing Miller with Bell.

Just sayin'

Sean Murphy Trade - What Does It Mean and What Is Next

 So, Mr. Murphy is finally traded...to Atlanta.

The kneejerk thoughts by people who blog for teams who wanted but did not get Murphy is generally: Could my team have payed that much or more to get Murphy.

To make it more complicated this became a 3 team deal, including Milwaukee.  However, for purposes of this deal let's assume that Milwaukee traded Contrares for Esteury Ruiz and Justin Yaeger first and that any other players that went to Milwaukee are assumed to have gone to the other two teams, Atlanta and Oakland.

Using this oversimplification, here is what the trade looked like:

Oakland traded:

Sean Murphy C and Joel Payamps RHRP

Atlanta traded

Manny Pina C, Freddy Tarnok (RHP, #6 Braves prospect), Esteury Ruiz (OF, #8 Milwaukke prospect), Kyle Muller (RHP, #1 Atlanta prospect) and Royber Salinas (RHP, #18 Braves prospect)

Unpacking this as it relates to Cleveland:

Pina is a veteran backup catcher.  Sort of a fill-in to help the A's stud young catcher Shea Langeliers (also a former Braves prospect) break in. 

Muller is the Braves #1 prospect.  That being said, he did not even make the MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects, showing how weak the Braves' farm system is.

Tarnok, with that in mind, is the Braves' #6 prospect and Salinas was their #18 prospect

Ruiz was the #8 prospect for the Brewers.

So, in summary, none of these guys were top 100 prospects in baseball.   To put this in perspective, the Guardians would have had to likely give up:

Tammer Bibee

Tanner Burns

Richie Palacios

Konnor Pilkington or Peyton Battenfield

I would have made that deal.  Bibee is a lot to lose but Burns isn't throwing hard, Palacios is good but has no place on this roster and either Pilkington or Battenfield are useable but not needed in Cleveland and, in and of themselves, has little trade value.

Now some may scoff at the package I proposed being equivalent to what Oakland got back but I think these two groups of players are VERY similar.

So, there you have it.  We lost out on Murphy.   It is really possible that the A's tried to gouge the Guardians and the package they proposed was much stronger than the package they got from Atlanta.   We will never know because we won't know what was asked or offered.  

Still, I think looking at what the A's got back for Murphy and Payamps, the Guardians could have easily matched that without significantly damaging their farm system.

Just one guy's opinion.  

So, now, where do we go from here?  Christian Vazquez?  Danny Jansen?  Bargain basement shopping or trading?  Who knows.

But we still need more offense out of catcher, a lefty bullpen arm, and maybe a better right handed right field power bat than Gonzalez.  Also, Carlos Rodon, if we are really going for it, would look good in a Guardians' uniform.   

Post for a Friday: Carlos Rodon.....A Man Can Dream, Can't He?

 Pipedream of the year thought: Carlos Rodon makes perfect sense for the Guardians.

6 years, $175 million.  

Look, we could use another #1 starter for two reasons: 

(1) Help us win games this year

(2) Give us some breathing room in making a decision about extending Shane Bieber.  

Hey, there is no way the Guardians commit this much to Rodon or any major league player.  It just isn't cost effective for this market.

But, still.   We have a deep farm system that can provide us cheap, by baseball salary standards, players for years to come.  So roster churn can help keep the team payroll down.  

The concept of 2 players (Ramirez and Rodon) eating a lot of your team salary actually works in the ultimate unusual situation the Guardians are in: an overflow of prospects.

Plus, it makes the decision on Rosario's free agency easy.  we go young at SS/2B.   

A Rodon signing might even signal an immediate trade of Rosario, which wouldn't really be that bad of a thing if Gimenez has his head on straight and just one of our young middle infielders can step up right now.

This will never happen in Cleveland, right?  A man can still dream.

The Price for Sean Murphy

 Courtesy of the Twitter feed at Cleveland Guardians Prospective we have to following ask from the Oakland A's for St. Louis to get Sean Murphy:

Lars Nootbar

Brendan Donovan

Gordon Graceffo

While I am a diehard Guardians fan I spent more than half my life (and most of my adult life) in St. Louis so I follow them closely, too.  

From my perspective this would not be a big price to pay to get Murphy.  Maybe the Cardinals don't think that Murphy is worth this but I think it is a reasonable price.  Here's why:

If you don't follow the Cardinals closely you will not know that Nootbar was hitting about .150 when he was sent to the minors in the middle of 2022. When he came back he hit much better but, still... He is a fan favorite in St. Louis based on his clutch performances and his name (hear the fans cheering NOOOOOOOOOOOOTBAR).  He is also a classic Moneyball darling where OBP dominates hitting and stolen bases are not worth anything.  He is an OK but not great outfielder.   Basically, he is Steven Kwan-light.  Donavon won a Gold Glove as a swiss army knife and placed well in the NL ROY award voting.  Still, I have seen him all year and while he is likely going to be a valuable player it is as a Moneyball piece on a good team.  In other words, he is much more valuable to the Cardinals than he would be in a trade to a rebuilding team like the A's.  

Neither Nootbar or Donovan were listed on the BA top prospects (or other prospects) in the 2021 listing and Nootbar was #6 and Donovan #18 in the BA rating at the beginning of the 2022 season.  Graceffo was #15 for BA and is currently #3 in the Cardinals system (#79 in baseball by MLB Pipeline) with only 1/2 in AA.

In my opinion, NONE of these guys would be a big loss to the Cardinals and I can't believe that they wouldn't make this deal in a heartbeat.

That being said, I look this proposed trade and say I could beat it with the following package:

Logan T. Allen

Brayan Rocchio

Will Brennan

Juan Brito

I would make this deal in a heartbeat as none of these guys are needed in Cleveland right now or even, likely in the future.

I would throw in some more, obviously, to get AJ Puk included and that is still my goal.  

Post Rule 5 post

 Kevin Kelly and Nic Enright, eh?   OK, color me surprised.   I would have thought that every team had minor league relief pitchers who were basically organizational players.  No way would I have ever have added them to the 40-man if I were GM as there are too many more impactful positions on the field than middle reliever.  Good luck to those guys as this gives them a grab at the brass ring and, as relievers, probably a better than average chance of sticking with their drafting team.

Kudos also to the Guardians player development system and, specifically, their pitcher development system.   It is hard now not to get uber-excited about the 2021 draft knowing how many college pitchers we drafted that year and that the Guardians have cranked out relievers of the caliber of Kelly and Enright by developing college pitchers drafted after round 10.

Though we may have lost two in the ML portion (minor league portion later) we still have Battenfield who gives us starting and maybe relieving depth at AAA.and we did not lose any position players.   Hopefully Hankins and Torres Jr. are healthy this coming year and break out.  Ditto for Gabriel and Jonathon Rodriguez.  

In the minor league portion we lose LHP Eli Longos and gain RHP Bradley Hanner, C Michael Berglund and RHP Justin Lewis.   We will have to wait to see about the new guys but it is great that we didn't lose anyone else from our top 78 (group after the 40-man roster and the 38 guys we could have protected on our AAA reserve list).

  

Rule 5 Update

Less than 2 hours left before the Rule 5 and here is what I see:

1) The Guardians will have 3 players drafted today:

a) Peyton Battenfield - If he is around when Tampa Bay picks I see him going to TB today. TB just cleared another roster spot this morning and I see them taking 2 players in the ML portion of the Rule 5.  In a funny twist if he makes it by TB I see him being drafted by the Yankees.  The Yanks would not take him to be spiteful but as I could see him filling a need in the Yankees bullpen or rotation I see them picking him with glee to feel better about losing Trevor Stephan.

b) Jonathon Rodriguez - I see him going to Oakland and, if not them, he may last until the second round and then could go to whoever drafted a player in the first round.  Again, this is one of those situations like Hector Rondon was a few years ago where potential based on his performance this year + a good winter in the Puerto Rico league vaults a guy who was a question mark into a guy who the team thinks could go all Akil Badoo.   Don't be surprised if Pittsburgh or Washington picks him, however.  

c) Trey Benton - The buzz on him is hard to deny and I see some team active in the Rule 5 taking him in the second round or maybe even in the 3rd round if they are in a deep rebuild like the A's are.    More likely, though, I see him going to a team like the Pirates who might see him as a real lottery ticket who could blossom by next year into a ML closer as compared to some teams who would look at him as a complimentary piece down the road with a chance at more after that.

That's it.   Those are the Guardians players I predict who will be selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5.   

Of less interest but still interesting is who the Guardians will leave exposed to the AAA phase.  Remember, we have so many decent prospects that guys we don't even have in the top 50 of our prospects might fit into the end of the top 30 in other organizations.   As we can only protect so many (I think 30) on our AAA reserve list, there will likely be some spillover of decent prospects into the group eligible for the AAA portion.  There may be some surpising names who may be selected there, as well.  Here are a list of guys I think the Guardians might lose in the AAA portion:

Robert Broom 

Elvis Jerez

Sergio Morillo

Aaron Bracho

Rey Delgado

Marcos Gonzalez

Kyle Marman

Brauny Munoz

Adam Scott

Victor Planchart

Eric Rodriguez

This is just a partial list but you can see what I mean.  There are guys on this list who don't fall into the first or second tier level of our unrostered, Rule 5-eligible prospects who might have a chance to make it to the majors.

Well, time is almost here.  Keep your fingers crossed that our losses are zero.

thoughts for a Wednesday - Rule 5, Rapid Fire Signings and Could We Make Two More Splashes?

 General Rule 5 Thoughts Heading Into The Draft Today:

• My experience in the Rule 5 is the following
• Teams draft for long-term value combined with present utility.   Thus Trevor Stephan was a minor league starter with possible utility as a reliever.  When I see people predict that minor league relievers are going to be drafted in the ML portion of the Rule 5 I am skeptical.  Minor league relievers can only be drafted for present value as it has already been determined that this is their upside.   The only exception would be a guy like Carlos Vargas, if he was available and simply because of that 102 mph fastball.   Matt Carver, who we traded Vargas for, would be the classic guy NOT to be drafted as, while his curveball is apparently great, he doesn't have present value without a dominant fastball.   I would be really surpirsed if the Guardians had any of their minor league relievers drafted.  The most appealing one, Tim Herrin, (lefty, hard thrower) was already protected.
• I think given, given the 26 man regular season roster AND the dearth of good catchers in the majors now, you will see more teams draft catchers in the Rule 5 as they can stash them as a 3rd catcher on their roster.  This is extra likely if the player can play another position.  I will put in another plug here about how drastically stupid I think the Guardians were for passing us college catcher Daniel Susac in the first round of this year's amateur draft. The fact that they passed him up for another left-handed hitting outfielder with serious warts on his game is another issue.  But this is a mistake they will pay for for years, in my opinion.  This year's Rule 5 draft will show how desperate MLB is for catching.  Susac would have been an immediate impact trade chip and a long term asset at catcher who would have dove-tailed very well with Bo Naylor's development and skillset.  Arrrrrrrgh!
• Look for teams to do what they normally do vis-a-vis postion players in the Rule 5
• Draft good hitting middle infielders who are lower in the minors and so realistically 2-3 years away from the majors and try to make them utility players.  Note concerning Juan Brito.  Had someone drafted him and stashed him they would have saved a minor league option with him meaning he would likely NOT run out of minor league options before he made the majors.
• Draft high power corner infielders and outfielders who they can plug in at DH.  We really have none of these guys
• Draft high octane pitching arms, especially if they are coming off injury.  I see us losing no one here.  Lenny Torres Jr. and Ethan Hankins are likely too far away from the majors and don't really have high octane stuff being more pitchability guys.   Even if they are stashed for a year on the 60 day I don't see their trajectory as beinb able to be accelerated.  That is, even if they develop it will be slow and the drafting team is unlikely to see benefit for 2-3 years.  Not an ideal Rule 5 situation which is one year hiding in the majors, one developmental year in the minors, back up to the big league full-time.
• The Guardians roster is not technically full but, with Josh Bell coming on board, it is functionally full.  They won't be drafting anyone today unless they make a trade.   DFAing the now-expendable Owen Miller or trading him for peanuts would be, in my opinion, very foolhardy just to open space on your roster for a Rule 5 guy.
• Still think Peyton Battenfield will be drafted today although he might not be the first Guardian prospect to be drafted in today's Rule 5.   Not saying if the first guy will be a current or former Guardians' prospect.  Hmmmmm!
• Senga or Rodon.   Rodon or Senga.   Either one would vault this team into competition for a WS spot and the length of contract it would take to get either is right in line with our Jose Ramirez/prospect laden team/system competiive roster window.
• So far what I have seen is that the Astros adding Abreu really has made every other signing irrelevant.   Judge going back to NY is great for the fans but doesn't change the optics on them getting to the WS.
• The Phillies with the worst record of playoff teams having to draft 29th because they made the WS really doesn't mesh with the non-tanking idea.  I know, they made the WS and generated extra cash present and future as a result but they should have drafted where their regular season record showed.   If they are a one-year wonder (likely) they will be punished for getting hot at the right time.  I don't like that.  The non-tanking lottery I get.  The Phillies drafting 29th is a mistake in the system as it punishes success.  
• I hope we sign or trade for a catcher today, as long as we don't get robbed.

Josh Bell it is!

 Two years $33 million with an opt out after the first year.     We needed a good first baseman who can hit and we got a switch hitter out of this.  I just hope he is a good, veteran leader.  This clubhouse could be hurt by infusion of any got mine first guys.  I just sensed that Abreu was a better teammate and a better clubhouse presence but let's hope that's because there wasn't much leading that could go on with the Pirates in a rebuild.   

As mentioned elsewhere, the base salary is at a level that making a qualifying offer on him after the first year would be doable if he choses the opt-out clause, unless his contract forbids us from doing that.

I like the move.  Bell is a significant improvement over Owen Miller but I am waiting for the other shoe to drop here in the form of another signing or a trade or a DFA to clear more roster space.  

Still would like to see Murphy here for continuity at catcher but Vasquez for 2 years wouldn't kill Bo Naylor's development so, either way it could work.

I don't want to eat these words later but it doesn't look like the Guardians are willing to pay the Athletics exorbitant price so either that price will have to come down or we are going a different direction (Jansen or Vazquez.

Tomorrow I hope we get a little more clarity on our catcher position and, although I don't hold out a lot of hope, maybe we even get through the Rule 5 tomorrow unscathed.  Except for Battenfield, I do believe was, during the season and afterwards, protected all the guys we should have protected this year.

2022 Rule 5 Draft - Comings (maybe) and Goings (hopefully not)

 Look, I am not alone among people who think the Rule 5 draft either needs to be eliminated or greatly modified.  Before we get started, stay tuned for my regular plug for how this should be changed:

(1) Players signed before their 18th birthday are eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the season in which they turn 22 years old

(2) Players signed when they are 18 to 21 years old are eligible for the first Rule 5 that occurs 5 years after they were signed.

(3) Players signed when they are 22 years old or older are eligible after the season in which they turn 25.

(4) Minor league free agency rules would remain as they are now with one revision: players signed before their 17th birthday had to wait 7 seasons before they could reach free agency, if not added to their team's 40-man roster.

Now that we have public service announcement out of the say, let's proceed.

Who's Coming?

The Guardians, theoretically, have one roster spot available if they want to use it for a Rule 5 draftee.  It is tricky to do that if they intent to sign a free agent which would lead to them having to DFA someone.  The two most likely candidates in that situation would be Will Benson and Owen Miller.  While neither of them appear to IMPORTANT pieces to the 2023 team they are not necessarily fungible, either.  I don't think it is wise to sign a Rule 5 flyer unless you have a plan to do a trade to clear out roster space before you sign any free agents.   But let's dream on who we might draft and assume our crack front office has a plan not to lose for nothing assets who might help the team at some point in 2023.  

1) Erik Miller LHP Phillies - We need a second lefty in the pen and Miller seems to fit that bill.  Even though I would rather have AJ Puk, Miller might fit the bill at a cheaper price.

2) Blake Sabol OF/C Pirates - Sabol has only one thing going for him, he can catch AND play the OF.   I don't see drafting him when we already have Naylor and Lavastida at the same level of the minors but it is worth a thought.

3) Logan Porter C/1B Royals - Another multiple position guy who could catch, the same thing applies to him as does Sabol.  Is he good enough defensively at catcher for the Guardians to take a flyer on him?

4) Malcom Nunez 1B Pirates - Here is a righty hitter who reminds me a little of Oscar Gonzalez but who plays 1B.  Could he be the lightning in the bottle if we get shut out of good RH hitting 1B candidates?

5) Peyton Battenfield or Nic Enright RHPs, Guardans - Don't laugh.  It would not be the first time a team drafted one of its own players in the Rule 5.  Hey, last year if the Rule 5 existed I would not have been surprised, if they had an open roster spot, if the Guardians might not have drafted Oscar Gonzalez.  Last year it would have looked pretty stupid as I thought there was enough fluff on the roster that I would have kept Gonzalez when the 40-man rosters were set.  But, sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good and we ended up with Gonzalez due to no 40-man.  But I digress.  Enight has enough Rule 5 buzz about him AND he could slot in to the bullpen right now to replace Bryan Shaw's innings (low leverage, multi-inning sacrificial lamb in blowouts role).  If they think the buzz is great about Enrights and they are afraid they will lose him and don't want to, don't be surpirsed if the Guardians use that 40th roster spot to draft Enright, Battenfield or another one of our minor league relief prospects.  I don't see them losing Ethan Hankins as I think team will realize that even if they can stash him on the 26 all year, his current development path won't get him to the majors until he has exhaused or come close to exhausted his minor league options.  

There you have it.   I only listed two catchers here but if there are other catchers who the Guardians think could be good placeholders for Naylor's arrival in July and who have long-term upside, don't be suprised if they tab a catcher not on this list.

Who's Going

This is where us prospect geeks really start to sweat.   I mean, every minor league could turn into the next incarnation of  Anthony Santander or even a relief option who could turn into Enyel De Los Santos part deux.   With that in mind here are the guys, with percentages of being drafted, who I think are primed to be selected from the Guardians this year:

1) Peyton Battenfield (80%) - I have already said I think the Guardians whiffed on not rostering him.  They traded for a guy with limited starting experience in college or the pros and judged him on the basis of the drop in his velo this year when he worked, by far, the biggest inning load he has ever had and did it in a hitter's park at the highest level of the minors.  Just looking at Logan Allen this year you can see that even your best pitching prospects can struggle at that level.

I think Battenfield is almost a lock to get selected.  He pitched almost exclusively in relief in college meaning he understands that role.  He has starter upside and a team can stash him as a likely very effective reliever on their roster this year.  There are enough rebuilding teams that I think he gets his first ML opportunity this coming spring.

2) Ethan Hankins (50%) - How could you not?   Injured pitcher who you could stash on the 60 most of the season?  Giving you next year, as well, to evaluate and develop him in a low leverage role.  I think it is likely some team will bite on him although his odds of sticking in the majors this year are really small.

3) Nic Enright (30%) - Unlike Baseball America I am not very high on him being drafted.   However, if their is an analytics-based rebuilding team like the Athletics who can look past his low velo and look at his fastball spin rate and direction, he might get drafted, especially on a team that winning is secondary to building a long-term roster.  Still, projecting Enright he doesn't, to me, project as even a tradeable asset 1 to 2 years down the road.   He just doesn't throw hard enough.  Doesn't mean he won't be drafted but I just don't think the value is there for him to be drafted.

4) Jonathon Rodriguea (30%) - Winter league stats seem to be very important to teams drafting in the Rule 5 although it is hard to believe that, in this analytics-based era, that what =-have-you-done-for-me-lately stats hold any water at all.   That being said, Rodriguez appears either on the steep upward climb of his development that started as a 17 year old or he peaked this past year in A ball.  How teams view his winter stats in relationship to his 2022 stats and his development pathway steepness make him a possibility to be drafted and do an Akil Badoo for some team.

5) Kevin Kelly, Trey Benton, Andrew Misiasek and other minor league relievers (20%) - I just don't see how a team could take a shot at a reliever-only minor leaguer who has not dazzled.  I mean Grant Sides is the perfect example of how drafting these guys in a Rule 5 is really foolhardy.  You might get a little novelty bump in current value but, in the long-term, the gamble for dramatic improvement necessary to be successful in the near future in the majors in leverage situations just doesn't seem like a good gamble for a team having to roster that guy.

6)  David Fry (25%) - Why, on earth would I say a team should draft a borderline catcher (see above) when they have a Rule 5 eligible guy who they could have rostered who can be a backup catcher?  I don't know but I think you will see more catchers drafted in this Rule 5 than in any other previous R5 draft.  

OK, there you have it.  Now the waiting, wrenching of hands and gnashing ot teeth begins!   

Desperation

 Let me paint you a picture.  It is a picture of the Cleveland Guardains' front office.   I actually want to paint two pictures.  One I will title "Desperation" and one I will title "Solid as a Rock"

To begin, my philosophy is a simple one:

Prospects are worth more than money.   The thing about money is you can go to the bank and get more of it.  The thing about prospects, GOOD prospects is that they cost money and they are cheap.  They are also trade capital for a situation where you can't get the guy you want in free agency (way too expensive, doesn't want to play in Cleveland).

So you have a plan going into the off-season but, as Mike Tyson says, everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth.  The thing Mike Tyson doesn't say is AFTER you get hit in the mouth you better damn well have a good second plan..

DESPERATION

Part 1 

BAM! Jose Abreu signs with the Astros.

The contract Abreu signed shows me the Guardians placed a value on him and weren't willing to go much above it.  It also shows me that they still don't get free agency.  You have someone you want, you better be wlling to overpay for him, both in years and dollars, and, in so doing, realize you are NEVER going to get full value for that person.

We still have a good fit at first base in Josh Bell...but we have to get him no matter the cost.   If we don't get him, everyone else has warts:

1. JD Martinez doesn't help getting Naylor off the field as he doesn't play 1B.   It potentially hurts the health of the Guardians as I believe a big reason they suffered so few injuries last year was the use of the DH spot down the stretch to rest guys legs but keep their bat in the lineup.  

2. Trey Mancini helps out a lot but, for some reason, I am just non board with him.  I guess, in a pinch he is OK.

3. The rest of the guys you could get will help, compared to having to play Owen Miller again but, in my opinion, they won't move us close enough to the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers to make it worth it.  If your goal is to just win the division then some of these guys would be OK signings.   

BUT NOT AS PRELUDES TO OTHER MOVES

Part 2 

The Guardians know they have to improve their offense at catcher while not losing defense.    That is why Sean Murphy's name keeps coming up.

But here is the thing about Murphy.  He is a SUPPORTING piece if we do the other things (sign Josh Bell and pray he performs and maybe sign Mitch Haniger).  If you don't sign these guys your lineup is not much improved and, as little as Guardians' fans probably want to hear this, Murphy is ONLY valuable to if we sign these guys.  

And, of course, remember that prospects are ALWAYS more valuable than money.  

 I read one trade scenario for Sean Murphy yesterday that had us trading Valera, Rocchio, Freeman and Logan Allen for Murphy.   I might be willing to do that if they throw in AJ Puk but, again, I don't do that if I can't drastically improve my right-handed power hitting.

I would rather trade for a lesser talent at catcher or, even better, sign a free agent who is an upgrade over Hedges.

Don't panic just because you got punched in the mouth trying unsuccessfully in getting a firstbaseman.  Prospects are more valuable than money.  Don't overpay in prospects. Overpay in money.

Part 3

There is a lot of talk about upgrading from Civale and/or Plesac.   Well, if that upgrade is Carlos Rodon and you are willing to pay him, I say more power to you.  Overpay in money, not prospects.  However, if the Guardians are thinking they can TRADE for a starter to upgrade then remember, prospects are more valuable than money.    Plus, I don't see in 2023, Plesac and Civale repeating their 2022 seasons.  Instead, I see both of them returning to their plus WARs that they had for the rest of their career.  As cheap, veteran 4th/5th starters for one more year, there is no better value in baseball than these guys, IMHO.  So, let's say we don't get our firstbaseman and we have the sense to not overpay for Murphy, then incrementally improving our starting pitching at the backend makes no sense.  None.  Don't panic.

SOLID AS A ROCK

My plan here is very simple.  Treat this off-season like it is July 31st.   Don't overpay in prospects and take on as much salary as you can if it helps you fill holes.   

1. Put a realistic price on Murphy.  I would say Valera, Rocchio or Freeman, Allen and Brito.   If you get Puk you could pay a little more.  If you can't get that done you trade with Toronto for Danny Jansen.

2. If you can't get Bell or Mancini then you sign the next best RH hitting firstbaseman you can find just to upgrade over Miller.  

3. You keep Plesac and Civale and don't waste prospects and, likely, money to incrementally upgrade.  If you want to upgrade, break the bank for Rodon.  Remember, prospects are more valuable than money.   Having a rotation of Rodon, Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrll and Civale is good.  Having a rotation of Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrill, some unnamed #4 starter and Civale or Plesac is not helpful, especially if it costs more and/or costs us prospects.

4. Pull the typical rabbits out of their hat with astute minor league signings of free agents.

Now we'll see what happens.   If Antonnetti and Chernoff go into this with pressure from ownership to turn prospects into veterans we are screwed.  If they truly chose to change course and overpay for Bell and Haniger and then trade reasonably for Murphy then we have a chance to have something special here this year.  Go all in and sign Rodon, too, and we have a legitimate chance to slightly best the finish of our 2016 team.

THoughts for a Sunday - post Big Game hangover version

 THE GAME

Well, I can't say I am surprised.  Michigan skunks Ohio State again!  I hate to say this by Jim Harbaugh and staff totally outcoach Ryan Day and staff.   

Here is the thing.  I have been an amateur coach for 35 years.   I know the difference between 11-1 against top competitions in a national qualifier and 11-1 in pool play against weak competition.    Looking at the Ohio State games this season I would say they were outcoached in probably 8 of the games.   In fact, if you did a strength of roster comparison and factored that with the final score, the Buckeyes would be about 7-4 at this point.  Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State all should have had no chance against OSU, especially the former two.  Yet those games, like the Penn State game, were down-to-the-end gut wrenchers.   

I believe Ryan Day is a good college football head coach and will have a good career.  He is NOT Urban Meyer, not that that s a terrible thing in and of itself.  However, Meyer's teams had their hiccups but usually rose to the occasion in a big game.  Day's teams, not so much.  He is so transparent in what he does.  He runs up the score against weaker competition to make his team and his (until Saturday) Heisman hopeful quarterback look better.  Even Saturday I think he kicked that field goal late just to make the score closer.   I mean 31-20 looks worse than a one score game at 31-23, right?  He even plays guys who shouldn't play just because they are the veterans trying to keep from being second-guessed if things go haywire.  The man knows, or thinks he knows, how to keep his job.  Of course, the reality is that you keep your job as the Ohio State football coach.

In a world where yesterday's game doesn't even represent a blip on the radar of the perils facing this plant, it doesn't really matter whether Ryan Day is the coach or whether OSU gets to the playoffs.  However, if you make the salary you need to do your job.  Ohio State's coaching staff is too well paid to screw up like this.  

I would actually be OK with the Buckeyes starting to get lower -rated recruiting classes. Maybe we ought to switch teams with Northwester and see what Ryan Day and co. can do with almost zero 4-star recruits. That's where you learn to coach, is coaching with teams that aren't, on paper, as talented as their opponents.  To me, this season has been a disaster and I am talking about well before TTUN.  

BASEBALL

Not much going on for the Guardians, is not a good thing, I think.  Their yearly strategy of 'letting the market develop' is just code for 'Let's wait for some of the lesser free agents to become desperate so we can sweep in and do our bargain basement shopping.

Teams like the Guardians need to strike early.  Sign Jose Abreu before he becomes the #1 target instead of the #1 backup plan for a number of contenders.  Give Mitch Haniger the years (3) it takes him to sign.   If Sean Murphy has too many suiters, trade for Danny Larson or sign Christian Vadsquez if the price is right on either of those two guys.

Teams in the position the Guardians are need to strike early, unlike teams like Oakland and Washington who are rebuilding and can 'let the market develop'.

NOLAN JONES NOISE

I have read a number of reports, maybe from the same souuce, saying that there is a scout somewhere comparing Nolan Jones to Bradley Zimmer in terms of offense and swing-and-miss.  All I can say to say to that is those writers and that scout are taking a worst-case scenario position here.  I mean Mercado got 426 ABs after his rookie year before they finally dumped him.  Zimmer got 450 after his rookie year.   Ernie Clement 250.  Heck, even Daniel Johnson got 89 ABs over 3 years before they called 4A player on him.  

Nolan Jones got 86 ABs in one year.  

But let's assume that 'they' are right and Jones will morph into Bradley Zimmer, offense-speaking.  Th

The problem is that all this thrashing and justification manufacturing doesn't account for one, simple thing.

Why trade Jones for a guy, Juan Brito, who the Rockies were looking to dump because they likely were not going to roster him ahead of the Rule 5.  Why make that trade and put Brito on the roster when he is likely to run out of minor league options before he even can legitimately reach the majors for good?

All this handwaving and rumor mongering about Jones being a 4A player and that we just didn't know it yet is a great reason to trade him.  No problem with that.

Just not trade him for a guy in Brito.  If Jones was going to have to be DFA'd or was a prospect who was going to have to be left exposed to the Rule 5, I get it.  Make the trade.  But that wasn't what SHOULD have been happening here, not after 86 big league ABs in his first cup of coffee.  

Look, it was a bad trade talent-wise to trade Jones for Brito.  Stop the posturing and call it what it was: The Guardians valued Brito more than Jones.  Just do that and, like Tobias Myers for Junior Caminero, in a year we can call BS on their player evaluation process and their ability to make these small trades.   Pretty sure that is what is going to happen here.  And, if Jones falls on his face, he still is more valuable than a guy who will probably end up getting most of his big league ABs for another team and not bring back much in return when we part ways wth him, assuming he even makes it to the majors.

This is how teams with an excess of young talent get burned.  They start, needlessly, giving away talent for less-than-reasonable returns.  Let's hope the Guardians take stock of what they have done and are more cautious in their future transactions.