General Rule 5 Thoughts Heading Into The Draft Today:
- My experience in the Rule 5 is the following
- Teams draft for long-term value combined with present utility. Thus Trevor Stephan was a minor league starter with possible utility as a reliever. When I see people predict that minor league relievers are going to be drafted in the ML portion of the Rule 5 I am skeptical. Minor league relievers can only be drafted for present value as it has already been determined that this is their upside. The only exception would be a guy like Carlos Vargas, if he was available and simply because of that 102 mph fastball. Matt Carver, who we traded Vargas for, would be the classic guy NOT to be drafted as, while his curveball is apparently great, he doesn't have present value without a dominant fastball. I would be really surpirsed if the Guardians had any of their minor league relievers drafted. The most appealing one, Tim Herrin, (lefty, hard thrower) was already protected.
- I think given, given the 26 man regular season roster AND the dearth of good catchers in the majors now, you will see more teams draft catchers in the Rule 5 as they can stash them as a 3rd catcher on their roster. This is extra likely if the player can play another position. I will put in another plug here about how drastically stupid I think the Guardians were for passing us college catcher Daniel Susac in the first round of this year's amateur draft. The fact that they passed him up for another left-handed hitting outfielder with serious warts on his game is another issue. But this is a mistake they will pay for for years, in my opinion. This year's Rule 5 draft will show how desperate MLB is for catching. Susac would have been an immediate impact trade chip and a long term asset at catcher who would have dove-tailed very well with Bo Naylor's development and skillset. Arrrrrrrgh!
- Look for teams to do what they normally do vis-a-vis postion players in the Rule 5
- Draft good hitting middle infielders who are lower in the minors and so realistically 2-3 years away from the majors and try to make them utility players. Note concerning Juan Brito. Had someone drafted him and stashed him they would have saved a minor league option with him meaning he would likely NOT run out of minor league options before he made the majors.
- Draft high power corner infielders and outfielders who they can plug in at DH. We really have none of these guys
- Draft high octane pitching arms, especially if they are coming off injury. I see us losing no one here. Lenny Torres Jr. and Ethan Hankins are likely too far away from the majors and don't really have high octane stuff being more pitchability guys. Even if they are stashed for a year on the 60 day I don't see their trajectory as beinb able to be accelerated. That is, even if they develop it will be slow and the drafting team is unlikely to see benefit for 2-3 years. Not an ideal Rule 5 situation which is one year hiding in the majors, one developmental year in the minors, back up to the big league full-time.
- The Guardians roster is not technically full but, with Josh Bell coming on board, it is functionally full. They won't be drafting anyone today unless they make a trade. DFAing the now-expendable Owen Miller or trading him for peanuts would be, in my opinion, very foolhardy just to open space on your roster for a Rule 5 guy.
- Still think Peyton Battenfield will be drafted today although he might not be the first Guardian prospect to be drafted in today's Rule 5. Not saying if the first guy will be a current or former Guardians' prospect. Hmmmmm!
- Senga or Rodon. Rodon or Senga. Either one would vault this team into competition for a WS spot and the length of contract it would take to get either is right in line with our Jose Ramirez/prospect laden team/system competiive roster window.
- So far what I have seen is that the Astros adding Abreu really has made every other signing irrelevant. Judge going back to NY is great for the fans but doesn't change the optics on them getting to the WS.
- The Phillies with the worst record of playoff teams having to draft 29th because they made the WS really doesn't mesh with the non-tanking idea. I know, they made the WS and generated extra cash present and future as a result but they should have drafted where their regular season record showed. If they are a one-year wonder (likely) they will be punished for getting hot at the right time. I don't like that. The non-tanking lottery I get. The Phillies drafting 29th is a mistake in the system as it punishes success.
- I hope we sign or trade for a catcher today, as long as we don't get robbed.
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