Preparation for inevitable injuries and poor performance. What happens if...

 Here we are moving towards Christmas, and, in terms of 2023 regular season records, every team is tied for first place and every team has a fighting chance of making the playoffs.

So as free agents go off the board and it looks like the Guardians may only do their Jan/early Feb. bargain basement shopping for middle relievers and backup catchers, let's postulate what could happen, especially if injuries occur, position-by-position.

Before we get into that, remember that the only players that MIGHT be DFA'd at this point without losing a significant talent are"

Will Benson - He literally came out of nowhere last year.  His career was floundering and his inability to put bat-to-ball and that he looked like just a slightly better than ML average outfielder made it likely that he would quickly become yet another AAAA player drifting from team to team.  However, the Guardians took a shine to him because he oozes athleticism and made some good plays in CF.  Still, if one player could lose his roster spot, Benson is it.  

Tim Herrin - Herrin came out of nowhere to pitch himself into position to get a spot on the roster this winter.   That being said, he appears far from being ML-ready.   In a perfect world they have protected him from the Rule 5 and given themselves a year or two to see if he develops into a Hentges-like lefty.   Or, they could just DFA him if they need his roster spot, which would likely be totally stupid as in the Rule 5 we could get him back if he didn't stick in the majors.  By putting him on the roster and then DFAing him, we lose him with no chance of getting him back if he is claimed by another team on waivers.

Konnor Pilkington - Conventional wisdom is that Pilkington will be stored at AAA, biding his time in case he is needed as a longman/spot starter in the majors due to lack of performance or injury (see below).  There is a school of thought, however, that says that the only reason Pilkington hasn't gone the way of Tanner Tully and Kirk McCarty is because of the flashes he showed last year, flashes that totally outdistanced his stuff, in my opinion.

Bryan Lavastida - Lavastida's terrible 2022 really took the steam out of his prospect status.  So much so that 'experts' ((me included) seem to forget he is still a prospect.   He is clearly a candidate to be DFA'd if we bring in another backup catcher.  Not that I would like that at all as I think you have to consider 2022 a possible anomaly.

Richie Palacios - As much as it pains me to say, Palacios brings nothing to the table.  The only reason that he would remain on the roster is if they think he can take a huge step forward in position versatility or power.  Aside from that, he is just a good baseball player with no outstanding tools.  Great to stash at AAA (see below) until George Valera is ready.  But, as much as it pains me, I could see him losing his roster spot in a pinch.  Probably the least likely of the guys above, however.

So, with that out of the way, let's look at our roster

CATCHER

We will either roster a backup catcher who was a minor league signing with a spring training invite or we will give the job to Lavastida or Bo Naylor.  As much as they want Naylor to develop, I don't know if it is worth it to lose one of the four players above just to roster a veteran backup.  Ideally Naylor would be your backup with Lavastida at AAA.  They could flip this and let Lavastida start the season as the backup and, about halfway through the season bring up Naylor and send down Lavastiday.   If Zunino gets injured and misses time we could see the catching duo of Naylor/Lavastida sooner than we would like.   If Zunino would have to be on the 60-day DL, we would likely bring up a veteran we have stashed at AAA along with either Lavastida or Naylor

INFIELD

The expected infield roster would be Ramirez, Rosario, Gimenez, Bell, Josh Naylor and Gabriel Arias.  That gives us only one utility guy, Arias.  Whether we go with two (Tyler Freeman?) stick with just the starters and Arias, Arias offers us coverage at all 4 infield postions with Freeman being the next man up.  As much as it pains me to say, this is a bit of a black hole without Ernie Clement and Owen Miller but I would rather give Freeman his first, true shot if an injury occurs.   If two of our infielders (counting Freeman) get hurt, we are looking at bringing up Rocchio or Tena earlier than expected. Losing Nolan Jones was an issue because, if he got some experience at first, he could have been our stash at AAA if we needed a first baseman outfielder.   I would like to see Palacios get some time at 1B and 2B in ST and opening the season at AAA for him to be our emergency guy at AAA. So, just like catcher, quality prospect depth in case of injuries but not a lot that is currently ML ready.

OUTFIELD

We are the most set here of any position player area.  The roster should open with Kwan, Straw, Gonzalez and Brennan with Palacios and Benson stashed at AAA.  I also really wish we would teach Benson to play 1B.  Again, losing Nolan Jones really hurts our depth here.

So, position player wise we will likely have 2 catchers, 7 infielders and 4 outfielders.   This gives Francona the flexibility to go with 13 pitchers to to start and then we can see how that goes.  While we have decent depth at all postion player postions, our depth guys are just not quite ready for the major leagues.  If we can avoild DL stints among the position players until mid-season, our depth might have caught up and be ML ready.

ROTATION

This is probably the strength of this team, depth-wise.  Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Plesac and Civale give us a solid rotation, backed by Pilkington, Battenfield and even Morgan and Morris as long openers.  Down at AAA we have Curry and Gaddis who started games for us last year and Allen, Williams, Bibee and Espino about 1/2 year away.  I think, except for a catastrophic series of injuries to our starters we could weather a small storm and keep moving forward.  We sure did it last year, albeit with a little more starting pitching depth of guys we could DFA if needed (Tully, McCarty).  

BULLPEN

This was a strength of our team last year and, barring injuries, should be again this year.  However, we are VERY thin at the ML level.  Looking at the 40 man, counting Morris, Morgan and Herrin, I see nine true relievers.  If the Guardians play their cards right, however, they also have quality relievers in waiting at AAA who are already on the 40 man.  Pilkington, Gaddis, Curry, Herrin and even the non-rostered Battenfield could become quality ML relievers this year, in my opinion.  The key to turn the thin ML relief thing into a depth strength is make the commitment to these guys as relievers.  I really don't see much of a future for Morgan, Battenfield (who was a reliever in college and his first couiple of years as a pro), Gaddis and Curry as major league starters but I see them being Stephan-Karinchak-Hentges types in the bullpen, and as early as this year, given their stuff.

OVERALL SUMMARY

Overall, the only concern I currently have, believe it or not, is our infield depth and at catcher.  Brandon Drury would have been a nice add, but not at $17 million for two years so we have to go with Arias and Freeman and train them up at multiple positions.  BTW, seeing Arias at AAA in the outfield shows me how athletic the guy is.  There is no comparison between Arias and Rosario in the OF.  Arias is just that much better, NATURALLY.   As far as catcher, I think that it is a waste to bring in a veteran as a backup.   We lose a player to DFA if we do that and I just don't want to lose any more assets for a guy who would be like Sandy Leon, a 3 month placeholder for Naylor.  It is not good business to do that and I think their hand will be forced, hopefully, to start the season with Naylor on the roster or bite the bullet and give Lavistida the backup job.  So, as the White Sox and other teams can tell you, crap happens that can kill your season.  Aside from those disasters we are set at most positions with enough quality backups and backups to the backups available that we won't, as we did in the 80s ask "Who?" when some guy got called up from AAA to fill a hole.  Or even in the 2000s where we have seen guys called up for expediency because they were fungible assets who could be DFA'd when our player was healthy again..