Look, I am not alone among people who think the Rule 5 draft either needs to be eliminated or greatly modified. Before we get started, stay tuned for my regular plug for how this should be changed:
(1) Players signed before their 18th birthday are eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the season in which they turn 22 years old
(2) Players signed when they are 18 to 21 years old are eligible for the first Rule 5 that occurs 5 years after they were signed.
(3) Players signed when they are 22 years old or older are eligible after the season in which they turn 25.
(4) Minor league free agency rules would remain as they are now with one revision: players signed before their 17th birthday had to wait 7 seasons before they could reach free agency, if not added to their team's 40-man roster.
Now that we have public service announcement out of the say, let's proceed.
Who's Coming?
The Guardians, theoretically, have one roster spot available if they want to use it for a Rule 5 draftee. It is tricky to do that if they intent to sign a free agent which would lead to them having to DFA someone. The two most likely candidates in that situation would be Will Benson and Owen Miller. While neither of them appear to IMPORTANT pieces to the 2023 team they are not necessarily fungible, either. I don't think it is wise to sign a Rule 5 flyer unless you have a plan to do a trade to clear out roster space before you sign any free agents. But let's dream on who we might draft and assume our crack front office has a plan not to lose for nothing assets who might help the team at some point in 2023.
1) Erik Miller LHP Phillies - We need a second lefty in the pen and Miller seems to fit that bill. Even though I would rather have AJ Puk, Miller might fit the bill at a cheaper price.
2) Blake Sabol OF/C Pirates - Sabol has only one thing going for him, he can catch AND play the OF. I don't see drafting him when we already have Naylor and Lavastida at the same level of the minors but it is worth a thought.
3) Logan Porter C/1B Royals - Another multiple position guy who could catch, the same thing applies to him as does Sabol. Is he good enough defensively at catcher for the Guardians to take a flyer on him?
4) Malcom Nunez 1B Pirates - Here is a righty hitter who reminds me a little of Oscar Gonzalez but who plays 1B. Could he be the lightning in the bottle if we get shut out of good RH hitting 1B candidates?
5) Peyton Battenfield or Nic Enright RHPs, Guardans - Don't laugh. It would not be the first time a team drafted one of its own players in the Rule 5. Hey, last year if the Rule 5 existed I would not have been surprised, if they had an open roster spot, if the Guardians might not have drafted Oscar Gonzalez. Last year it would have looked pretty stupid as I thought there was enough fluff on the roster that I would have kept Gonzalez when the 40-man rosters were set. But, sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good and we ended up with Gonzalez due to no 40-man. But I digress. Enight has enough Rule 5 buzz about him AND he could slot in to the bullpen right now to replace Bryan Shaw's innings (low leverage, multi-inning sacrificial lamb in blowouts role). If they think the buzz is great about Enrights and they are afraid they will lose him and don't want to, don't be surpirsed if the Guardians use that 40th roster spot to draft Enright, Battenfield or another one of our minor league relief prospects. I don't see them losing Ethan Hankins as I think team will realize that even if they can stash him on the 26 all year, his current development path won't get him to the majors until he has exhaused or come close to exhausted his minor league options.
There you have it. I only listed two catchers here but if there are other catchers who the Guardians think could be good placeholders for Naylor's arrival in July and who have long-term upside, don't be suprised if they tab a catcher not on this list.
Who's Going
This is where us prospect geeks really start to sweat. I mean, every minor league could turn into the next incarnation of Anthony Santander or even a relief option who could turn into Enyel De Los Santos part deux. With that in mind here are the guys, with percentages of being drafted, who I think are primed to be selected from the Guardians this year:
1) Peyton Battenfield (80%) - I have already said I think the Guardians whiffed on not rostering him. They traded for a guy with limited starting experience in college or the pros and judged him on the basis of the drop in his velo this year when he worked, by far, the biggest inning load he has ever had and did it in a hitter's park at the highest level of the minors. Just looking at Logan Allen this year you can see that even your best pitching prospects can struggle at that level.
I think Battenfield is almost a lock to get selected. He pitched almost exclusively in relief in college meaning he understands that role. He has starter upside and a team can stash him as a likely very effective reliever on their roster this year. There are enough rebuilding teams that I think he gets his first ML opportunity this coming spring.
2) Ethan Hankins (50%) - How could you not? Injured pitcher who you could stash on the 60 most of the season? Giving you next year, as well, to evaluate and develop him in a low leverage role. I think it is likely some team will bite on him although his odds of sticking in the majors this year are really small.
3) Nic Enright (30%) - Unlike Baseball America I am not very high on him being drafted. However, if their is an analytics-based rebuilding team like the Athletics who can look past his low velo and look at his fastball spin rate and direction, he might get drafted, especially on a team that winning is secondary to building a long-term roster. Still, projecting Enright he doesn't, to me, project as even a tradeable asset 1 to 2 years down the road. He just doesn't throw hard enough. Doesn't mean he won't be drafted but I just don't think the value is there for him to be drafted.
4) Jonathon Rodriguea (30%) - Winter league stats seem to be very important to teams drafting in the Rule 5 although it is hard to believe that, in this analytics-based era, that what =-have-you-done-for-me-lately stats hold any water at all. That being said, Rodriguez appears either on the steep upward climb of his development that started as a 17 year old or he peaked this past year in A ball. How teams view his winter stats in relationship to his 2022 stats and his development pathway steepness make him a possibility to be drafted and do an Akil Badoo for some team.
5) Kevin Kelly, Trey Benton, Andrew Misiasek and other minor league relievers (20%) - I just don't see how a team could take a shot at a reliever-only minor leaguer who has not dazzled. I mean Grant Sides is the perfect example of how drafting these guys in a Rule 5 is really foolhardy. You might get a little novelty bump in current value but, in the long-term, the gamble for dramatic improvement necessary to be successful in the near future in the majors in leverage situations just doesn't seem like a good gamble for a team having to roster that guy.
6) David Fry (25%) - Why, on earth would I say a team should draft a borderline catcher (see above) when they have a Rule 5 eligible guy who they could have rostered who can be a backup catcher? I don't know but I think you will see more catchers drafted in this Rule 5 than in any other previous R5 draft.
OK, there you have it. Now the waiting, wrenching of hands and gnashing ot teeth begins!
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