Desperation

 Let me paint you a picture.  It is a picture of the Cleveland Guardains' front office.   I actually want to paint two pictures.  One I will title "Desperation" and one I will title "Solid as a Rock"

To begin, my philosophy is a simple one:

Prospects are worth more than money.   The thing about money is you can go to the bank and get more of it.  The thing about prospects, GOOD prospects is that they cost money and they are cheap.  They are also trade capital for a situation where you can't get the guy you want in free agency (way too expensive, doesn't want to play in Cleveland).

So you have a plan going into the off-season but, as Mike Tyson says, everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth.  The thing Mike Tyson doesn't say is AFTER you get hit in the mouth you better damn well have a good second plan..

DESPERATION

Part 1 

BAM! Jose Abreu signs with the Astros.

The contract Abreu signed shows me the Guardians placed a value on him and weren't willing to go much above it.  It also shows me that they still don't get free agency.  You have someone you want, you better be wlling to overpay for him, both in years and dollars, and, in so doing, realize you are NEVER going to get full value for that person.

We still have a good fit at first base in Josh Bell...but we have to get him no matter the cost.   If we don't get him, everyone else has warts:

1. JD Martinez doesn't help getting Naylor off the field as he doesn't play 1B.   It potentially hurts the health of the Guardians as I believe a big reason they suffered so few injuries last year was the use of the DH spot down the stretch to rest guys legs but keep their bat in the lineup.  

2. Trey Mancini helps out a lot but, for some reason, I am just non board with him.  I guess, in a pinch he is OK.

3. The rest of the guys you could get will help, compared to having to play Owen Miller again but, in my opinion, they won't move us close enough to the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers to make it worth it.  If your goal is to just win the division then some of these guys would be OK signings.   

BUT NOT AS PRELUDES TO OTHER MOVES

Part 2 

The Guardians know they have to improve their offense at catcher while not losing defense.    That is why Sean Murphy's name keeps coming up.

But here is the thing about Murphy.  He is a SUPPORTING piece if we do the other things (sign Josh Bell and pray he performs and maybe sign Mitch Haniger).  If you don't sign these guys your lineup is not much improved and, as little as Guardians' fans probably want to hear this, Murphy is ONLY valuable to if we sign these guys.  

And, of course, remember that prospects are ALWAYS more valuable than money.  

 I read one trade scenario for Sean Murphy yesterday that had us trading Valera, Rocchio, Freeman and Logan Allen for Murphy.   I might be willing to do that if they throw in AJ Puk but, again, I don't do that if I can't drastically improve my right-handed power hitting.

I would rather trade for a lesser talent at catcher or, even better, sign a free agent who is an upgrade over Hedges.

Don't panic just because you got punched in the mouth trying unsuccessfully in getting a firstbaseman.  Prospects are more valuable than money.  Don't overpay in prospects. Overpay in money.

Part 3

There is a lot of talk about upgrading from Civale and/or Plesac.   Well, if that upgrade is Carlos Rodon and you are willing to pay him, I say more power to you.  Overpay in money, not prospects.  However, if the Guardians are thinking they can TRADE for a starter to upgrade then remember, prospects are more valuable than money.    Plus, I don't see in 2023, Plesac and Civale repeating their 2022 seasons.  Instead, I see both of them returning to their plus WARs that they had for the rest of their career.  As cheap, veteran 4th/5th starters for one more year, there is no better value in baseball than these guys, IMHO.  So, let's say we don't get our firstbaseman and we have the sense to not overpay for Murphy, then incrementally improving our starting pitching at the backend makes no sense.  None.  Don't panic.

SOLID AS A ROCK

My plan here is very simple.  Treat this off-season like it is July 31st.   Don't overpay in prospects and take on as much salary as you can if it helps you fill holes.   

1. Put a realistic price on Murphy.  I would say Valera, Rocchio or Freeman, Allen and Brito.   If you get Puk you could pay a little more.  If you can't get that done you trade with Toronto for Danny Jansen.

2. If you can't get Bell or Mancini then you sign the next best RH hitting firstbaseman you can find just to upgrade over Miller.  

3. You keep Plesac and Civale and don't waste prospects and, likely, money to incrementally upgrade.  If you want to upgrade, break the bank for Rodon.  Remember, prospects are more valuable than money.   Having a rotation of Rodon, Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrll and Civale is good.  Having a rotation of Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrill, some unnamed #4 starter and Civale or Plesac is not helpful, especially if it costs more and/or costs us prospects.

4. Pull the typical rabbits out of their hat with astute minor league signings of free agents.

Now we'll see what happens.   If Antonnetti and Chernoff go into this with pressure from ownership to turn prospects into veterans we are screwed.  If they truly chose to change course and overpay for Bell and Haniger and then trade reasonably for Murphy then we have a chance to have something special here this year.  Go all in and sign Rodon, too, and we have a legitimate chance to slightly best the finish of our 2016 team.