Saturday, February 18, 2023

Have we become the new Moneyball A's?

The Cleveland Guardians are going for it.  There's a phrase a lot of the Dolan-is-cheap crowd would argue with.

However, they are REALLY going for it...in their own way, being all in on their strategy in every facet of the organization and taking a lot of risk, just like the Moneyball A's did.  I see this manifesting itself in 3 very stark ways:

1. They have identified their type of offensive player and they are all in on that type, including overdrafting (yes, I did go there) and trading for guys whose abilities don't appear to fit what is the norm in the major leagues now while trading away guys who appear to be more valuable but don't fit their ideal player.

2. They appear to have a formula on bringing in free agents that goes like this:  is the free agent a bargain based on their ability per dollar they are asking for and do we have ANYONE in our system who could potentially fill that job more cheaply?

3. They hold onto their prospects so tightly that absolutely, under no circumstances will they overpay even a little bit for a piece they need to make their current team better.  I am not talking about giving up the return that San Diego gave up to get Clevinger.   I am talking about the kind of return the Padres got when they traded Sandy Alomar, Carlos Baerga and Chris James for Joe Carter.  Trades that hurt but are possible due to prospect depth and major league team needs without drastically overpaying.  

A couple of things I do believe:

a. As a team hypersensitive to cash flow issues, the DSG thing has impacted their apetite for financial risk.  If they don't get that money it is a huge chunk of change that they will start the season in the hole.

b. I think they look at major leaguers differently than some other teams.  It is not hugely difficult math to know what your players will be worth in arbitration and free agency down the road to calculate what your team salary will be anywhere in the next 5 years.   As fans we don't get that.  We just have to hope they know what they are doing because the cost for Gregory Soto and even for Sean Murphy and AJ Puk tell me that these guys would have been more than worth what it would have cost them to get these guys.   At the same time the highly logical thing would have been to trade Amed Rosario but the thought must be that he is much more valuable TO THIS TEAM than the simple sum of all his talents and drawbacks.

So, while I vehemently disagree with what I see as their plan, look at their success record.  I mean, just look at it.  Doing unconventional things designed to compete and not have the team go bankrupt has been working for 10 years, so much so that newer fans (not me) are numb to the success because it hasn't ended in a WS title.   I am willing to cut them some slack knowing when you build a house using playing cards, you are skating on thin ice with the chance it could easily all go to hell in a handbasket, as I mix several metaphors together!

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