As we approach spring training all the focus is on the 40-man roster on how those guys, and maybe other guys on the cusp of making an impact on the ML team, are going to help us to win in 2023. For a few, this also comes with a glimpse into the promise of how their skill sets can also help the Guardians to win beyond 2023.
As a prospect geek guy, though, I am going to take a look at 10 prospects who I think will take a major step forward, maybe even moving way up in or moving into our top 30 prospects. The higher the rating, the more of a move up the rankings I think this guy will make. This listing favors guys who will make BIG jumps. So if Gavin Williams or Logan Allen make the jump all the way to Cleveland this year, given their pre-season prospect ranking and the level they will start 2023 at, it won't be that surprising. However, if Juan Brito follows Jhonkensy Noel's path from last year and ends up in Columbus after dominating at A+ and AA, then that is a huge jump. So, if you want guys who I think will fit that bill of jumping multiple levels and giving us performances to salivate over come next off-season, here is my list.
1. Ryan Webb - This is an easy one, actually. Imagine Tanner Bibee's success and realize that Webb was selected one round before Bibee. Having missed most of last year due to Tommy John surgery, he is set to break through this year and have the same Bibee-like ascent. As we saw with the COVID season, the Guardians are aggressive with promoting players who have lost a developmental year. Don't be surprised to see Webb start at Lake County and, if he has success, spend most of the year at Akron with an outside shot at a cup-of-coffee in Columbus. Not hard to imagine that a guy like Webb will take off this year and, as a fan of the Guardians and a prospect geek, I could hope for nothing less.
2. Doug Nikhazy - Cleveland has a pitching development factory. Nikhazy is a guy who needs some development to reach a significanly high upside (I am looking at Cliff Lee-type high). Thus my enthusiasm for him to make a big jump this year. When a guy has a swing-and-miss fastball like Nikhazy and peripheral pitches that are better than his fastball, it makes for a good situation for a pitching development staff like ours. The Guardians are somewhat unusual because they have, in recent years, not let their pitching draftees pitch in their draft year. As a result I think their pitching development may be slowed a bit. I think this makes it likely that the second year with some of these guys may be a lot better than the first. He had some truly awesome games. He had some truly bad games. His strand rate must have been over=the-top as his WHIP was pretty high. The key thing is that his stuff allowed him to pitch out of trouble and he had a low H/IP in his first year in professional baseblal. Harnessing his control, with his stuff and his ability to miss bats AND barrels of bats when he does give up contact, combined with Cleveland's development system, means he is primed for a breakout year.
3. Jose Cedeno - This ranking is based on three things: (1) 2022 DSL stats, (2) his position (catcher) and (3) his swing. These are all fueled by scouting reports and video views. Normally I don't include DSL guys in my rankings because they are so young and, as a result, so unrefined that any ranking is based on high-end ceiling with no thought to high-end floor. I see Cedeno as an exception. I have fallen in love with his swing, which appears to me to be unvelievably solid for a 17-year old. It will likely be hard to see his development explode if he stays in the AZL this season but if the Guardians push him to Lynchburg, he may look a lot like Yainer Diaz which, as all know now, is a really good thing. Plus, unlike Diaz, I think Cedeno will stick at and be an above-average defensive catcher. In my mind he has the potential, way down the road, to be as good as Bo Naylor on both sides of the ball.
4. Jonathon Rodriguez - This is more of a hope than a certainty. Rodriguez found his power stroke last season and then showed plus power on his winter league team. The goal is three-fold for him (1) optimize his pitch selection and, thereby, increase his walk rate, (2) hit for better average, meaning using all fields when coupled to his pitch recorgnition and (3) continue to be on the steep part of the cursve relative to his power development. It is up to Rodriguez and the player development staff to make this work. As he was one of the youngest players in his draft class it is not out of the question to think that last year and this winter were just the first leg in the steep part of his development. Thus, 2023 might even be better than 2022 in terms of results. He could easily tear up Akron and than use the hitter-friendly Columbus ballpark to further cement his place in the Guardians' future plans. Looking over various prospect listings I am clearly much higher on Rodriguez than the 'experts' are. I think this year will put him on everyone's radar.
5. Dayan Frias - Nother middle infield prospect...yawn...The thing about Frias is his winter league performance which led to him being the starting SS for the Columbia WBC team (after holding that position for their Caribbean series entry). This is not like being the starting SS for the Czech WBC team. There is a lot of competition for a country like Columbia. For a guy like Frias, who is an afterthought in our infield prospect pecking order, it is huge that he is well-thought of. His hitting has been an issue but I think that if you look at his winter league stats and compare them to those same stats last year you can see the growth. I think his high K numbers at Lynchburg and his relatively low OPS were an aberration caused by his young age for that level. Defensively he still looks great this winter and his offense has been superb, as he mirrored his early pro career with more BBs than Ks.
6. Juan Brito - My poster child for bad trades by the Guardians, you gotta imagine that trading a guy like Nolan Jones, on the cusp of going off as a major leaguer, would bring back someone the Guardians really, really like. Given that they had to roster him you have to believe that these smart people had to sense that he was ready to blow up this year. I mean, not like Albert Pujols blow up but, still, at least like Jhonkensy Noel 2022 end-the-season-in-Columbus blow up. Otherwise, why would you trade for a guy who played low A last year when the development path for a guy like that puts him in the majors for the first time AFTER he has already run out of minor league options? So I am going with the Guardians' experts here (even in the face of the Tobias Myers-Junior Caminero fiasco) and saying that they have to be right...right? So, by definition as I love my team and would like nothing better than Brito going off this year, I am guessing that he will and that we will all be patting the Guardians' brain trust at this time next year for the Jones-for-Brito deal.
7. Ethan Hankins - This is too easy of a pick to come ture. Former high round pick, besieged by injuries, never able to show his true ability, now finally healthy and the Guardians put him at low A Lynchburg so he can dominate and he does, carrying that momentum up to Lake County for the last two months. Basically, injury-driven ZERO performance up to this year to performance suitable for his skill set in 2023. Of course, another scenario is that they see they have to protect him from the Rule 5 again this winter and they say, 'heck with it, let's push the guy' and he struggles at the beginning at Lake County, rights the ship to be great to the mddle of August and then struggles significantly at Akron while still flashing plus stuff across the board. Basically, he shows he could be great with more development and patience. Under those conditions, the Guardians have the tough choice of whether to protect him on the 40 next winter. A pleasant problem to have, really.
8.Justin Boyd - This is another easy call, considering he did a good impersonation of Mario Mendoza last year in his debut. Guy comes in with great OB skills, an advanced college approach and good speed. He is likely to have a big season and I predict he will end up at about .310/.395/.400/.795 25 SB/10 CS while splitting time equally between Lake County and Akron. Guys like this are just built for success in the lower minors. Don't know if his success will translate to AAA or the majors (see Ka'ai Tom) but I predict this trade will look good for Cleveland by the end of the year. It may look good for Cincinnati, too and that would be my hopo as Will Benson appears to be a very giving, well-grounded individal despite his struggles in making it to the majors. Now, for the PTBNL to be catcher Logan Tanner :-).
9. Gabriel Rodriguez - His 202 season was a disaster and, at times, it looked like the Guardians were trying to limit his playing time to 'hide' him so that he wasn't as obvious a Rule 5 target this winter. He obviously had some injury issues but I keep reminding myself that this guy was recently a top prospects and that he has it in him. I am gong to nickname him "Phoenix" as I think he is going to rise from the ashes of his 2022 season and get into our top 20 prospects this season, causing our front office heartburn has they have to then find a way to protect him this coming winter.
10. Mason Hickman - I gotta admit, this has been a personal favorite of mine for a couple of years now. I did not see, with his pedestrian stuff, how the Guardians could waste a draft pick on this guy in the 5-round draft of 2020. He was the classic 6-10 round pick of the Guardians in any draft as they had plenty of picks to play with where they drafted high-risk, high-reward guys. But, in 2020, it was hard for me to understand why they even drafted a low-ceiling, medium-floor guy like Hickman. Then I started looking at his stats and realizing that his average fastball velocity was only mediocre but seemed to be better in the first 2 innings of each game and his results were pretty good in the first inning of games. Seemed like the peformance of a guy who had the potential, with his secondary pitches, of being a setup guy like Stephan as Hickman's fastball would play up in shorter, relief stints. Last year was the first inkling of that being true and I expect it to continue this season. He could even get a cameo in Cleveland this year if his performance convinced them that they were going to roster him this coming winter, anyway.
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