Saturday, February 4, 2023

State of the farm system - What we should expect at each level this year

Two things you can easily measure in the minors are winning and player development.  The more true prospects you have in your system the harder it is to win in the minors but the more true prospects you have, the more opportunity for the organization to get impact major leaguers out of them.  Teams that are more veteran are more stable and generally perform better.  So winning in the minors is, often, the opposite of a successful minor league development program.

Given the above, let's look at the Guardians minor league teams this year and predict how they will do and who their prospects will be and how they will perform.  Again, very early predictions.

Columbus

Lineup - The Guardians will have a relatively veteran lineup, with all of their prospects on this team likely to have played at least some AAA ball.  The outfield will be a bit unsettled but the infield and catching should be strong and contain a lot of the prospects on this team.  That being said, if these prospects don't perform well this lineup will be pretty weak.

Starting Pitching - We should have some veteran prospects here which will make it exciting but not signing minor league free agent starting pitchers this winter will make it interesting to put together a rotation in April.  Right now I only see Peyton Battenfield and Logan Allen as established starters.

Bullpen - This should be the strength of this team.  Given how,set the major league bullpen already is if it can avoid injuries, there is a backup of minor league relievers who will start to pile up at AAA.   If the Guardians are smart they may even employ more of a Tampa Bay openers philosophy to get all these guys work.  That may mesh with not having a full complement of AAA starting pitching.

Prediction - This team is set to have a below .500 record.  They don't have enough veterans on their AAA roster and likely will be one of those teams that produces not enough wins but does produce prospects who help the Guardians win this year and in the future.  In that sense, the prospects passing through or getting to Columbus this year may the best in recent memory.   That would be pretty impressive considering how many rookies we had make their major league debuts in 2022.

Akron

Lineup - This lineup is set to have more suspects in it than any other team in our minor league system.  Depending on whether Micah Pries and Johnkensy Noel start in AAA,  there is a chance that every position player on this team is either a minor league veteran organizational player a prospect who risks being turned into a suspect if they don't improve their performance.  Catcher will be a real area of need for this team unless a veteran minor leaguer ends up at AA.  Catching is a real weakness in this system in AA and high A.

Starting Pitching - This will be the strength of this team and if the manager manages well and the rest of the team plays the right way, will be more than enough to help this team make the Eastern League playoffs.  Like most good minor league teams, however, whether they can win in the playoffs will depend on how many of their better pitchers are called up during the season.

Bullpen - Given the backup at the ML level and AAA, this bullpen should be good as relievers wait their turn to get to Columbus.

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