1. Regression
It's winter. Not much real for us writers to talk about so projecting 2023 is generally a favorite subject. Lot's of talk about regression of some of our younger players from their 2022 performance levels. Favorites of prognosticators have been Oscar Gonzalez and Andres Gimenez. While I totally agree that, everything else being static, that some underlying trends support regression of their performances in 2023, I also see the Guardians instructional system being able to somewhat nullify this natural regression.
One of the things that has been missed in these discussions is talk about Franmil Reyes and Bobby Bradley. While these guys, along with Owen Miller, Oscar Mercado, Bradley Zimmer, Yu Chang have to be considered failures, I pose that these are actually successes beyond the average that other teams could have pulled out of these players. The only evidence I have for that is the unexpected success that Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez had last year and the improvement that Gimenez showed from 2021 AND that Reyes and Bradley are not even signed to minor league deals yet and that Zimmer, Chang and Reyes had little to no success once they left Cleveland.
Instead of seeing what Gonzalez looked like pre-2022, look at what he looked like DURING 2022. He used the whole field when he hit, how he ran hard and played the game the right way. Gimenez improved in basically every offensive category last year. I don't think that either of these results can be considered an accident nor do I think that the suggestion of significant regression makes sense of our players have put in the appropriate work in the off-season (somethng rumored to be a significant part of Reyes' downfall).
You can't make guys put in the work but, if they do, regression likely won't happen or it will be minimal. All we need from Gonzalez and Gimenez is 95% of what they gave us n 2022 and I am actually looking for each of them to provide 105% of what we saw with them last year.
2. WBC
I will start by saying that I am not a fan. When I worked in industry I had a clause in my employment agreement that said I couldn't moonlight. As a young man with boundless energy I didn't understand that. As I got older I realized that my performance was going to be based on my preparation and concentration. You can't effectively serve two masters and that is what I think that WBC participants are doing. The WBC rosters should be limited to fringe major leaguers, minor league veterans and some guys who just never made it in US organized professional baseball. Richie Palacios comes to mind as well as guys like Jake Jewell.
I just don't think it is a good idea to put guys into nationalistic playing situations which get the adrenaline flowing as they try to make their home countries proud. Add this to the fact that they are doing this when they are supposed to be slowly preparing themselves for the grind of a major league season and I think it could have an injury-related and stamina-related impact on these players, both short- and long-term during the upcoming season.
This is especially true for the Guardians who could be one of the most negatively impacted teams if Jose Ramirez got hurt or had some other negative impact from participating.
MLB is sort of forced to swallow hard and accept the WBC being when it is. I just don't like it and never will.
3. Our Roster
I still see Tim Herrin and Will Benson as at risk for losing their roster spots. I am thinking that with the slow-developing lefty reliever market that we have time to jump in and grab someone. I just don't see Herrin as a guy who can make the step up to the majors, at least not at this point. Given how Francona loves veteran relievers if he has the choice, I would like to think we will grab one of the available lefty relievers.
4. Our spring training invitees
Maybe this happens every year and my memory is just fading. However, the list of additional spring training invitees that just came out is one of the most exciting lists I can recall as far as the likelihood of these guys actually making it to Cleveland this coming season.
Logan Allen and Peyton Battenfield are guys I think can provide meaningful innings to the Guardians this year. Maybe both in the bullpen, reprising some of what Eli Morgan did last year.
Cade Smith, Nick Mikolajchak and Andrew Misiaszek are minor league relievers who I can envision getting time in the majors this year, especially since we haven't brought in the usual Jake Jewell-type minor league veterans at the level we usually do. While we might have to lose them on waivers during the year if we have a roster crunch, I think this is a make-or-break year for these guys anyway and if we get a read that they are just AAAA pitchers, DFAing them during the season might not be all that painful, at least for the Guardians' organization.
Micah Pries and David Fry beings invited also gives a hint to the fact that the organization likes what it saw from them last year and that there is a glimmer of hope that they might provide useable ABs or be trade chips this spring and are here to audition for those roles in front of big league coaches and scouts. Fry, especially, with his versatility and catching ability is extremely intriguing even though he is 27 years old. Every team needs that 26th guy and he could be this year's Chris Coste, using an analogy for those of you with long memories.
Even Luis Oviedo getting a look as an extra arm in spring training is encouraging as they could have given that spot to any of a number of guys but chose to give it to Oviedo.
All of these guys getting invites to the ML camp mean they will be in camp longer and probably be more ready for their minor league seasons, if nothing else. I think the extra views that Francona and his coaches have of these guys this spring will give them more comfort if they have to bring them up during the season. Has happened in the past and I think, with good performances, it could happen again for these guys this year. Again, moreso than for these spring training invites than for those of years past, as least using my memory as my guide.
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