I started to write this months ago. but, after thinking about it and looking back at how the previous CBA unfolded, I decided to wait until the MLBPA made their initial proposal to the owners. Surprisingly, IMO, it was not as shock-and-awe as I had expected it to be, instead nibbling at the edges. The publicly released part of the MLB proposal was shock and awe as it really only addressed a cap/floor system with initial dollar figures
Note that many of the topics below were not publicly disclosed in MLB's counterproposal.
Let's dive in and see where the two sides are and where I think this should go. Again, only one guy's opinion.
1. Minimum salary -
MLBPA - $1.65 MM minimum, scaling up to $2.2 MM at the end of the CBA.
MLB - Not mentioned but MLB is rumored to be against such a hike in rookie salaries
My Thoughts - fits right in line with what my goal of a $2 MM minimum salary I proposed. Owners are going to have to see that a salary floor is coming and the smart ones will see that it is better to give this money to their own players than be forced to give it to mediocre FAs who won't impact the course of a season. As I said before, 26 players at $2 MM gives you a base total salary of almost 1/2 of the $120 MM floor they will likely settle on.
2. Pre-arbitration pool -
MLBBPA - Raise from current $50 MM to $180 MM.
MLB - Not mentioned
My Thoughts - Currently, each of the 30 ML teams contribute $1.67 MM to the pool. The new pool would cost each team $6 MM, which disproportionately taxes the 'poorest' teams. If the owners are to agree to this increase it is going to have to be tied to something in lieu of a salary cap (see #7 below). For example, the bottom 10 markets would still contribute $2 MM/team, the middle 10 markets would contribute $6 MM each and the largest 10 markets would each be left to contribute $10 million. I am not saying the $180 MM will end up being the number but whatever the number is, the split should hit the wealthiest teams the hardest.
3. Super 2 Players -
MLBPA - Increase from 22% to 44%.
MLB - Not mentioned
My thoughts - I think this IS a shock-and-awe request designed to get them concessions elsewhere. I would think an increase to $25% with a increase of 1% per year of the next CBA would be a good compromise without meaning that the owners have to give up something else somewhere. Frankly, I think that arbitration should be dropped to after 2 years of service time. This eliminates the Super 2 issue while it still doesn't address the player control issues that led to Super 2, PPI and other rules. I think that this would be less of a hard pill to swallow if teams had access to more revenue and were forced to spend it.
4. Minimum Arbitration salary
MLBPA: 3 MM
MLB - Not mentioned
My Thoughts - I think this, in combination with the ca. $2 MM minimum salary is good and the owners can complain about it to gain some good PR but they will see that paying a rookie $2 MM is better than paying a mediocre arbitration-eligible player $3+ MM. I see this nicely fitting into current organizational thinking of when they pull the plug on arbitration-eligible
players. I also see those players being stuck getting minor league deals which is not helpful to those players playing in the majors unless there is an increase in salary year over year due to service time.
5. Service time for ML free agency -
MLBPA - No change for younger players . 5 years service time for players over 30 to become FAs
MLB - Not mentioned but I have to guess this would be a no for teams. They develop players and want to hold onto those players for the longest time possible before potentially losing them to free agency. Still, teams that understand the 'churn' of expensive players leaving for greener pastures, might want to horsetrade this for other concessions.
My Thoughts - The players propose 5 years for players over 30 years old. I see the owners doing some horsetrading here by giving in to this but asking for two things in return: elimination of the ML Rule 5 draft and change in the minor league free agency to 7 years for players signed before their 18th birthday. Latin amateur FAs take so long to develop that exposing them minor league free agency or the Rule 5 draft is just foolish. These two horse trades are something that owners of small market teams would likely favor, anyway.
6. Competitive Balance Tax and Other Penalties
MLBPA: Raise Competitive Balance Threshold from $244 MM to $300 MM, raising in subsequent seasons. Remove all penalties for exceeding tax
MLB - Not mentioned but from their low salary cap proposal, MLB probably considers this irrelevant.
My Thoughts - Assuming no salary cap, my philosophy to improve competitive balance is to make teams choose. If they choose to buy FAs (high team salary), they should be penalized more heavily than they are now.
7. Revenue Sharing
MLBPA - More sharing of broadcast rights, less stadium revenue sharing, Lower revenue teams receive at least $240 MM in revenue sharing annually but they must spend that money or suffer penalties. Low revenue teams would receive bonuses if they make the playoffs or have a winning record.
MLB - Not addressed
My thoughts - I align with the MLBPA here. More revenue sharing, penalties if not spending that money, bonuses for successful franchises. I would like part of that money going to the draft, giving those low revenue teams even larger bonus pool, and money they HAVE to spend or be penalized.
8. Salary Cap
MLBPA - Does not want
MLB - $245 MM
My Thoughts - This is where the rubber meets the road in these negotiations. Owners can play hardball here but everyone should warn them that it will be THEIR fault if this results in a work stoppage. There are plenty of ways to improve competitive balance without a cap. In fact, having a cap actually will hurt competitive balance as big market teams will just funnel money to player development and scouting. See #6 above for ways to help compettive balance.
9. Salary Floor
MLBPA - $150 MM - Penalties for teams spending under that (reverse competitive balance tax).
MLB - $171 MM (includes player benefits meaning it is lower). Likely to be closer to $150 MM in salaries.
My Thoughts - MLBPA's plan is similar to my plan. Remembering that 100% of owners need to approve the new CBA and only 50+% of players need to approve, the lower the salary floor, the better to get 100% of owners to approve. Note that this floor needs to be tied to increased revenue sharing, particularly from local revenues (TV and merchandise). It is still not clear how the MLBPA is addressing that their plan guarantees teams $240 MM in revenue sharing but only requires them to pay $150 MM in salaries. As I have said, part of that revenue should be forced into draft bonus pools (domestic and international (see below) with the smaller market teams getting more money to spend, and have to spend, to sign amatuer players.
10. International Draft
MLBPA - Not mentioned
MLB - Not mentioned
My Thoughts - This is a must for me. A large part of competitive balance has to include all amateur players being subject to a draft.
11. Rule 5 Draft
MLBPA - Not mentioned
MLB - Not mentioned
My Thoughts - The ML portion HAS to be eliminated. I have published a number of evidence-based articles on this and the current R5 does not work. As a good part of competitive balance has to be in amateur player acquistion and development, the R5 is counterproductive.
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