Tornados and the draft

As fellow blogger recovers from cancer surgery (good luck Tony and our prayers are with you), tornados ripped through Northern St. Louis County where I live.   It was still 6-7 miles south of us but scary, nonetheless. 

Baseball America, in their latest midseason top 50 for the 2011 draft had Trevor Bauer, rated by this blog as the early favorite to be the Indians first round pick, as the 8th best prospect.  The Indians draft 8th.

Bauer's 2011 stats, including his 17 K, 4 hit, 2 walk complete game last night against 23rd ranked Stanford are:

1.42 ERA, 41 hits in 82 innings, 127 Ks (about 1.5 per inning) and 25 BB in 10 starts.  A little worrisome in pitch count as he threw 135 pitches last night and at 8 1/3 innings per start he is probably up over 110 pitches every time out.  Also, he is not tall (6'1" listed, probably 6-0" really) and has an unorthodox motion. 

Interesting things about the list:

John Stilson from Texas A&M was ranked 30th!  This seems low to me.  I guess his stuff may come up short  (his Ks this year have dropped from about 1.5 per inning to about 1.1) but his ERA is 1.05 and he is dominant in most starts as he has given up 60 hits in 81 innings.   If we only had two picks in the top 20....

Taylor Jungmann is 13th ranked and Matt Barnes is 14th ranked.  Interestingly I would right now consider taking either of these guys over Bauer.  Bauer is dominant but the lack of size and unorthodox delivery scare me.   BA indicated that last year Barnes would have been in the running for the top college pitcher in the draft last year.  That pitcher was Drew Pomeranz.  So, if he is healthy, either Barnes (or Jungmann, who is consistently rated more highly) would be great picks and I think a little safer than Bauer.

Matt Purke from TCU has been hurt and is a sophomore.  If you want to throw the bank at the guy he could be available in the 2nd round.

Both Okalahoma HS pitchers, Dylan Bunday and Archie Bradley are rated low enough we might be able to get either at #8.  Both might be tough signs. 

There are position players in this draft but their top 50 has only 4 of the top 17 prospects are hitters. 

Next time around I will talk about the college players who have dropped significantly during this draft year and may be later round gems.  

Guys who are make or break this year

A number of Indians' minor leaguers are in make or break seasons.  Here is the way I think it will go:

Borderline Columbus prospects:

Jerad Head: excel
Jordan Brown: still up in the air
Luis Valbuena: struggle
Wes Hodges: struggle
Ezequiel Carrera: solid performance
Zach Putnam: excel
David Huff: solid
Zach Putname: excel
Frank Herrmann: solid
Josh Judy: excel
Jess Todd: struggle
Corey Kluber: struggle
Zach McAllister: solid

Best signing of the off-season....

...if you want a good draft choice in 2012.

Yep, that would be Chad "laughing all the way to the bank" Durbin.  The signing that none of us liked is looking really good so far...if you are looking to get a high draft choice. 

While this is surely a plus, I still rather give those innings to a rookie reliever.

I can see the talk shows in Cleveland now.  "Well, it's 4:30 in the afternoon at WELW and Chad Durbin still sucks". 

Meanwhile, Aaron Laffey, who we dumped to give us a roster spot that we could have saved by not signing Durbin, has pitched 5 scoreless innings on one hit, one walk and 3 Ks.

Really not a good signing compounded by giving Laffey away for nothing.  Geez!

Stat of the day

Cory Burns is just a so-so prospect.  Yeah, he put up some gaudy numbers last year combined in Lake County and Kinston (42 saves and 84 Ks to just 14 walks in 55 innings) but those can be seasoned-college-pitcher-pitching-against-younger-competition numbers.

It also screams quality changeup/other off-speed pitch, which IS his bread and butter

But wait, he was just 22 so he wasn't really overage, especially for the Carolina League where he did his most damage.

And it gets better!

So far this year he has the following stat line:

4 G  4 Saves  4 IP 4 H 1 R 0 ER 0 BB 11 K.

That's right, in AA, which is where you start separating prospects from suspects from organizational guys, Burns has recorded 12 outs and 11 of those are from strikeouts with the 12th out being a groundout from Pittsburgh's #2 prospect, Tony Sanchez.  Of his 11 Ks 6 are called and 5 are swinging, including all three today when he got his 4th save, so it's not like he is just getting them to swing at junk.  I mean, he hasn't walked a guy.  People are taking, people are swinging, they are all grabbing some pine.

Little league-like numbers in AA.  Hmmm, we may have a real human interest story here...and a serviceable major league reliever. 

Indians Top 100 prospects - April 2011 Update

Just a quick update:

I've removed Josh Rodriguez (#22, stuck with Pittsburgh), Alex Kaminsky (#66 - cut during ST) and Ryan Morris (#95 - cut during ST).  Not bad for a top 100 prospects to only have 2 guys cut during ST.   I've added three new guys on the bottom of the list, two who just missed my list and a 3rd, Steven Wright, who deserves mention as he tries to resurrect his career by developing a knuckleball.

1. Jason Kipnis (#3 on BA Indians' top 10)
2. Drew Pomeranz (#4 on BA Indians' top 10)
3. Lonnie Chisenhall (#1 on BA Indians' top 10)
4. Alex White (#2 on BA Indians' top 10)
5. LaVon Washington (#7 of BA Indians' top 10)
6. Jason Knapp (#6 on BA Indians' top 10)
7. Nick Weglarz (#5 on BA Indians' top 10)
8. Nick Hagadone (#10 on BA Indians' top 10)
9.  Kyle Blair (BA Top 31)
10. Cord Phelps (BA Top 30)
11. Jordan Brown (In team photo)
12. Bryce Stowell (BA Top 31)
13. Vinnie Pestano (In team photo)
14. Joe Gardner (#9 on BA Indians' top 10)
15. Josh Judy (BA Top 31)
16. Hector Rondon (BA Top 31)
17. Rob Bryson (BA Top 31)
18. Robbie Aviles (In team photo)
19. Juan Diaz
20.  Zach Putnam (BA Top 30)
21. Tony Wolters (#8 on BA Indians' top 10)
22. Jordan Henry (BA Top 31)
23. Tyler Holt (BA Top 31)
24. TJ House (BA Top 31)
25. Kelvin De La Cruz (BA Top 31)
26. Austin Adams (In team photo)
27. Chun Chen (BA Top 31)
28. Paulo Espino
29. Jared Goedert. In team photo)
30. Cole Cook (In team photo)
31. Alexander Perez (In team photo)
32. Zach McAllister (BA Top 31)

33. Corey Kluber (BA Top 31)
34. Matt McBride (in team photo)
35. Alex Lavisky (BA Top 31)

36. Giovanny Soto (In team photo)
37. Ezequiel Carrera (in team photo)
38. Jess Todd (BA Top 31)
39. Scott Barnes (In team photo)
40. Felix Sterling (BA Top 31)
41. Adam Miller (In team photo)
42. Matt Packer (BA Top 31)
43. Clayton Cook (In team photo)
44. TJ McFarland (In team photo)
45. Chris Jones
46. Eric Berger (In team photo)
47. Michael Goodnight (In team photo)
48. Tony Dischler (In team photo)

49. Marty Popham (In team photo)
50. Roberto Perez (In team photo)
51. Tyler Sturdevant (In team photo)
52. Cory Burns (In team photo)
53. Abner Abreu (In team photo)
54. Tim Fedroff (In team photo)
55. Bryan Price (In team photo)
56.. Chen Lee (BA Top 31)
57. Bo Greenwell (In team photo)
58. Jordan Cooper (In team photo)
59. Nick Bartolone (In team photo)

60. Elvis Araujo (In team photo)

61. Jorge Martinez (In team photo)

62. Vidal Nuno (In team photo)

63. Giovanny Urshala (BA Top 31)

64. Kyle Bellows(In team photo)

65. Connor Graham (In team photo)

66. Joey Mahalic

67. John Drennen (In team photo)

68. Jesus Aguilar

69. Brett Brach (In team photo)

70. Francisco Jimenez

71. Juan Romero (In team photo)

72. Karexon Sanchez 

73. Oswell Munoz

74. Matt Langwell

75. Danny Salazar

76. Argenis Martinez

77. Preston Guilmet (In team photo)

78. Ramon Cespedes

79. Harold Guerrero

80. Kyle Petter

81. Enosil Tejada

82.Luigi Rodriguez (BA Top 31)

83. Hunter Jones (In team photo)

84. Chase Burnette (In team photo)

85. Jose Flores (In team photo for Seattle)

86.  Carlos Moncrief

87. Erik Gonzalez

88. Mike Rayl

89. Mark Brown (In team photo)

90. Jerad Head

91. Alex Monsalve (In team photo)

92. Charlie Valero

93. Nate Striz

94. Trey Haley (In team photo)

95. Beau Mills (In team photo)

96. Delvi Cid (In team photo)

97. Wes Hodges

98. Ronny Rodriguez

99. Aaron Siligia

100. Steven Wright

Stat of the day

Yesterday the Indians and three of their affiliates (Columbus, Akron and Lake County) played.  The starting pitchers were Carmona, Huff, De la Cruz and Goodnight.  Combined they gave up 8 hits in 23 innings and one earned run.    However, if you subtract one performance the bullpens were even better!  If you leave out Jess Todd's performance (2/3 of an inning, 3 ER) the bullpens gave up no runs in 12 and 1/3 innings.

Now THAT'S dominant pitching!

2011 Predictions

Everyone does it, so why not me:

ML Indians

Record: 67-95
Biggest surprise: Tony Sipp, Matt LaPorta
Biggest disappointment: Fausto Carmona
MVP: Choo
Rookie of the year: Jason Kipnis

Columbus Clippers
Record: 80-64 (IL Champion...again)
Biggest surprise: Jordan Brown
Biggest disappointment: Nick Weglarz (due to injuries), Jess Todd and possibly Josh Judy
MVP: Cord Phelps
Best prospect: Jason Kipnis
Prospects having success in the majors in 2010: Putnam, Chisenhall, Judy, Phelps, Brown, Alex White
Comments: There is enough backup in the majors, enough polishing that needs to be done and enough sense by the Indians to not start the service time clocks of a number of these guys too soon that we will see guys staying at AAA way too long this year.   The bullpen will especially be chomping at the bit but guys will just have to wait their turn.   This team is just so solid that I can't see them not excelling.  Plus, with the guys stacked up on this roster, even a little turnover shouldn't stop them.  With most of that turnover being in August, this team should cost into the playoffs and get a boost from AA for their playoff run.

Akron Aeros
Record: 60-84
Biggest surprise: Juan Diaz
Biggest disappointment: Matt Packer, Kyle Bellows, Joe Gardner
MVP: Kelvin De la Cruz
Best prospect: Kelvin De la Cruz, Drew Pomeranz, Chun Chen
Prospects making the majors: C.C. Lee, Nick Hagadone
Comments: There will be so much traffic through  Akron this year (up and down) that this team will just never get it going.  Not that there aren't good prospects.  I see 4-5 of these guys being on the ML roster when we make our first big run in 2013.  Things just won't go well for this team this year.  It's just one of those things.

Kinston Indians
Record: 79-75
Biggest surprise: Bo Greenwell, Chris Jones
Biggest disappointment:  Tyler Holt
MVP: Abner Abreu, Drew Pomeranz (won't be around long enough to qualify)
Best prospect: Drew Pomeranz, TJ House
Guys with an outside shot of playing in the majors: Chris Jones
Comments: Let's call this the make-or-break team.  So many prospects on this team are in their final year of being a prospect, at least from my perspective.  Guys like McFarland, Mahalic, Greenwell and even Clayton Cook, Roberto Perez and Giovanny Soto have got to make a name for themselves.  Guys like Maty Popham and Tyler Sturdevant and Delvi Cid have to make a difference and really advance their game or they become 100% organizational soldiers.

Lake County Captains
Record: 84-60 (champions again)
Biggest Surprise: Jesus Aguilar, Govanny Urshela (his power and hitting)
Biggest Disappointment: Tony Dischler, Trey Haley, Alex Lavisky and Tony Wolters (the latter two due to injury and inexperience)
MVP: Kyle Blair
Best prospect: Kyle Blair, Cole Cook, Michael Goodnight, LeVon Washington, Giovanny Urshela, Tony Wolters, Alex Lavisky
Comments: The backup of starting pitching up the organization will cause Dischler, Blair, Cook, Goodnight and Haley to remain at LC for most of the season.  That bodes well for LC as they are quality pitchers pitching below their level for most of the year.