On this off-day I had a lot of thoughts rattline around in my head:
The Guardians Hold Their Fate In Their Own Hands
This seems trite but looking at the remaining schedule, except for KC and Detroit, most of their opponents are exactly the ones they are fighting against, for the Central championship and the wildcard. So often you need help from other teams to win a battle like this...and of course we appreciate any help we can get. But the Guardians get to fight this out head to head. Even the games against KC (who is extremely hot right now) and Detroit will not be easy as divisional games carry their own bragging rights, no matter the standings. We still have the 26th ranked strength of schedule so that helps. But, no matter how this season turns out, this schedule is exactly who we want to play to EARN a post-season spot, and I am happy about that.
Don't Look Now, But Here Come The Mariners
For the last several weeks I preached patience and that by September 1st we would know where we were. Why? Because we played nothing but teams that had bad overall records that it was our chance to make up ground quickly. And we did.
But don't look now but Seattle is within 3 games of the AL West lead and 5 games of the 3rd wildcard and their remaining schedule has a .436 winning percentage. That's .043 easier than the Guardians who sit 26th. So, the Mariners WILL make up games and, IMO, are the current favorites to sneak up and win the AL West. What happens to Texas and Houston will help determine the third wildcard team.
Ralphy or No Ralphy
That debate is all the rage on Twitter and other media. So here's my take:
1. The "Ralphy is not being promoted" crew rightly cite that if he is promoted this year (one year before he has to be added to the 40-man) he could potentially not get to play next year during whatever work stoppage there is since guys on the 40-man would not be eligible to play in the minors. While that is true, realize that MANY good prospects willl have to be rostered by teams this winter that the talent in AAA will be so diluted next year that it will look more like a AAAA league than it usually does Currently, the average age in the International League is almost 27 years old. This could spike to almost 28 years old or higher if guys like Velazquez *21 years old) can't play there next year. Do you really think it is helpful next year for Ralphy to play against AAAA competition or get a taste of the majors this year and maybe help the team get to and do well in the playoffs?
2. The "Bring Ralphy Up Now" crew says that this team could use the jolt that he would bring. While I think there is some of that (see Genao and even Watson promotions) we have to realize that Ralphy is far from a finished product and an Ingle-like debut is possible. Plus, if CDL is limited to DH most of September, there really isn't a place for Ralphy. But if Ralphy is brought up after September 1st his ABs don't count against his rookie eligibility but can help the team (Evan Carter for Texas a couple of years back).
So where do I stand? Bring him up once the rosters expand. You have to bring up someone and I just don't see how bringing up Watson, Schnee, Manzo, Ingle are going to help this team down the stretch any more than Ralphy would. You gotta bring someone up so bring up someone who might help now and in the playoffs. Those other guys can still be added to the playoff roster (if we get there) in case of injuries but Ralphy is lightning in a bottle here and, despite his positional limitations, he's more likely to give us one good month than these other guys.
Who Is The Pitcher We Call Up?
We have a conondrum. We can bring up one pitcher come September 1st. We can also possibly demote Allen and maybe even Festa. We have Espino, Aleman and Cecconi who could possible help our bullpen be more solid with Cecconin giving us Allen-like length.
However, upsetting the apple cart at this point, with Festa and Allen pitching well, has significant risk associated with it. It's the brass ring grab hoping for additional victories (Aleman, Espino, Cecconi) or the status quo is good (Allen, Festa and, probably Cecconi) or some combination of the two.
How will they go? I think, on September 1st, they will call up Cecconi and Espino and demote Allen. They will hold Aleman and Allen in reserve at AAA in case of injuries or bad performance by Espino. Festa is just too solid right now and Espino and Cecconi add so much potential strength to this bullpen I can't see them going for less than this.
One other point: Ben Lively was, until tonight, looking good. I think he may be a wildcard playoff pssibility but I see him spending the rest of CBus' season strengthening and lengthening.
Latest MLB Proposal - More Rule 5 BS
Only if you are new here is there the possibility that you might think I liked MLB's proposal about the Rule 5. In fact I hate both sides' Rule 5 proposals.
I have shown in an earlier article that the ML portion of the Rule 5 doesn't work at the current eligibility levels. Yet both sides want to shorten the time between a player being acquired and being R5 eligible? Absolutely stupid and showing an extreme lack of understanding of the Rule 5 draft and how totally worthless it is. Which makes me laugh at the most recent proposals on this subject.
So, let me get this straight. Both MLB and MLBPA want to make players LESS experienced before they get this make-or-break opportunity to make a ML roster. Plus the MLB put icing on that cake by saying that teams could possible send a Rule 5 pick to the minors. Really? How many times and ways do I have to provide data that says the Rule 5 doesn't work. And that data doesn't include the likely millions of dollars that is spent by ML teams agonizing over who to protect and then figuring out if players from other teams might be good Rule 5 picks.
I have an idea. DO AWAY WITH THE DAMN RULE 5 DRAFT AND LET THESE GUYS DEVELOP IN THE SYSTEM THAT ACQUIRED THEM. I am fine with shortening minor league free agency to 5 years for college draftees or NDFAs. I am even fine with shortening the time for ML free agency to 5 years of service time. Plus, the overall roster restrictions in the affiliated US minor leagues for teams has already allowed players mobility that they didn't have a few years ago as every draft cycle causes minor leaguers to be cut so teams' draftees can be placed on this 165 player list each team has. But the crap these guys are proposing? No way.
Stop the BS. Teams should get to fully develop the players they draft or sign as NDFAs. Implementing any of the crap that has been suggested gives thos teams that spend the money to bring in players less of a chance to do that and, frankly, could lead to more trading of draft picks because those picks are less important if players don't get to develop. And, yes, living through Ted Stepien and DeShaun Watson, among others, I do not want front offices and cheap owners to have any more impetus to devalue obtaining amateur talent than they already do. Allowing trading of draft picks allows them to do just that. As a fan of the Cleveland Guardians that is the exact opposite of what should happen.
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