OK, long before Erik Gonzalez forgot where second base was on his way to botching a crucial double play, I was ticked off.
Earlier in the game with the offense struggling, Erik Gonzalez went 2-0 against Brandon McCarthy. At that moment McCarthy had thrown almost as many balls as strikes but had only given up one hit.
So you are a rookie trying to make an impression in a game where we are obviously short on baserunners. And then, for some unknown reason, you swing at a 2-0 pitch...and you foul it off.
Not an epic fail (we will get to that later), but nonetheless a fail and we all know that when a rookie fails it is almost always elevated to the epic level.
Then he redeemed himself. Psyche. He grounds out to second base on the next pitch. Squared that one up, didn't he? Now, if he takes that 2-0 pitch, maybe even takes the following 2-1 pitch to go 2-2 and then grounds to second base, that is probably acceptable from your #9 hitter whose OPS is made up of almost equal parts of his OBP and SLG and whose OBP is almost entirely made up of his batting average, if you get my drift.
So, we call that 2-0 swing a rookie mistake.
But wait! The next batter is Bradley Zimmer, another rookie. Following in Gonzalez's footsteps he goes 2-0. Then, on the next pitch he tries to hit a ball almost in the dirt and weakly grounds out the pitcher. For a second it looks like his legs are going to redeem his brain fart by legging it out. But the replay guru says 'no' and Zimmer is called out on appeal. So now it looks like our second rookie learned nothing from the first one and failed even more epically that Gonzalez, topping a ball that didn't even make it to the pitcher.
As Shoeless Joe Jackson said in 'Field of Dreams', "Rookies?!#@!?"
Then we went from bad judgement to bad baseball with Gonzalez's epic fail in the 8th. When it rains it pours. Maybe in July we will forget about this but, right now, rookie stupidity hurts, and I am a rookie-lover.
Thursday, June 15, 2017
Wednesday, June 14, 2017
The rest of the story
OK, for those of you who are old timers like me, you may remember the Paul Harvey show. He would always start it with some statement and, I think, end with "And that's the rest of the story".
Well, today we had the 'rest of the story' for the 2017 baseball draft. The last 30 rounds. Let me give you some statistics going back to recent Indians' drafts from 2011-2016, the years where each team only drafted for 40 rounds.
- Only about 50% of the guys drafted after round 10 even signed, most of them being college players (see below).
- Only 7 guys have made the majors in rounds 11-40 in those 6 seasons (Adam Plutko, Ben Heller, Cody Anderson, Shawn Armstrong, Shawn Morimando, Cody Allen and Ryan Merritt, the last 5 from the 2011 draft!).
- In those years, the Indians drafted 58 high school players in rounds 11-40 and signed 7. Of those 7, only Morimando has actually made the majors.
Given the above information we should not expect much out of the later rounds. By my count the Indians drafted, in rounds 11-40, 11 HS players, 11 college juniors, 4 college sophomores or freshman, 3 college seniors. Not an unusual distribution.
Here is my take on these picks.
1. I think it was very unusual for them to start the last day with 3 HS players in the first 4 picks. Usually HSers drafted that late don't sign as my statistics above show. I don't understand this as these guys were not even highly ranked so they can't really even qualify as flyers, selected in case we had extra bonus money left. Why spend these picks on guys who are not necessarily that good and, as HSers, aren't as likely to sign. I understand teams liking who they like, but I don't get these picks. Time will tell what to make of these picks.
2. The lack of emphasis on college seniors (4 in the entire draft) and the emphasis on pitchers who are college juniors is interesting. In many cases these guys go back to school unless the bonus money is there. As none of them are very highly rated, it will be interesting to see how many of them sign. At the same time, guys like Heller, Cody Allen and Shawn Armstrong came by this route so this is a group worth watching.
3. The two true flyers they took late (Cole Turney and Asa Lacy) are guys to watch. They were projected to go in the 3rd-5th rounds. If we do have extra bonus money look for the Indians to target one of them.
In summary, the last day of the draft was relatively unexciting for the Indians. Not surprising in that we shouldn't have much, if any, extra bonus money above $100,000 to throw at any of these guys if we sign our top 10 picks. There may be some surprises in this group, however, as it looks like the Indians are really trusting their scouts to go out and find the overlooked guys. As they have had a lot of success identifying relievers in this group, look more at the pitchers rather than the hitters in rounds 11-40 and expect a relatively low signing rate in this group this year. I would say 12-15 of them signing, at the most. I could easily be wrong on that but this is what the breakdowns and history tells me.
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Teams Like Who They Like
In the past when I have asked experts about why a the Indians would draft an unranked guy in the 3rd round I almost always receive the answer: "Teams like who they like".
Well, that is as unsatisfying as a hot fudge sundae hold the hot fudge and hold the ice cream.
How many times in the past have the Indians drafted a guy in the early rounds who was a complete unknown? I remember one time in particular, when the Indians drafted Cody Bunkelman, his college coach said the Indians maybe showed up one time...for a kid they drafted in like the 5th round! Bunkelman lasted about a year and a half and he was gone.
In recent years when we had draft bonus limits, the Indians seemed to have very understandable draft strategies.
Which brings us to this year. Below is a list of the guys the Indians drafted in the top10 rounds this year. Next to each is their draft slot, the Baseball America ranking and the MLB ranking. It is important to note that Baseball America ranks 500 players and MLB ranks only the top 200.
Player, Level, Draft Slot, BA ranking, MLB ranking
Quentin Holmes, HS, 64, 50, 33
Tyler Freeman, HS, 71, 97, 141
Jonathon Rodriguez, HS, 102, 223, not ranked
Ernie Clement, College Jr., 132, 92, 114
Austin Wade, College Sr., 162, 355, not ranked
Michael Rivera, College Jr., 192, 175, 172
Kirk McCarthy, College Jr., 222, 219, not ranked
Eli Morgan, College Jr., 252, 257, not ranked
James Karinkcak, College Jr., 282, 122, 163
Jesse Berardi, 312, 105, 166
OK, what do we make of this? From the scouting reports it looks like we have drafted a bunch of guys with 1, 2 or 3 tools. Nothing wrong there as most of the 5-tool guys are gone early in the draft. The goal, then, should be to pick guys with one outstanding tool and one good one. It sounds like the Indians may have done a lot of that. From a fan point of view this isn't as satisfying as it could be, being like a hot fudge sundae, hold the ice cream.
What pops out right away, though, is that a lot of these guys (6) are ranked about where they should be (for their draft slots) based on two different ranking systems. Yes, there are differences but, as the title says, those differences can mostly be accounted for by different teams valuing different players slightly differently. Four of the picks, the 3rd and 5th round picks and the 9th and 10th round picks are not in line with their talent slot. The first two were drafted higher than their talent slot would indicate and should be signable for less than their slot. Their 9th and 10th round picks were guys who were rated much higher than where they were drafted. They are both college juniors and could go back to school if they can't get enough bonus money. As both thought they would go in the top 5 rounds, they likely will take significantly overslot bonuses to sign.
When I consider their top 10 picks as a package, the Indians appear to have taken the path that makes perfect sense: draft HS kids early, then draft college guys for the rest of the first 10 rounds and, on average, draft guys about where they slot in terms of talent, selecting only one college senior, and a relatively highly ranked one, at that.. As I said before, signing HS kids at the end of the first 10 rounds is difficult. College juniors, however, tend to sign and for slot in the first 7 rounds. Thus, the Indians got HS talent at the top and more assuredness of signing by drafting college players in the rest of the top 10 rounds. So it looks good on paper but the question is...can the Indians sign all these 10 guys and not go over their draft budget? I think they can. Here is how:
Holmes signs for $100,000 over slot
Freeman signs for $65,000 under slot
Rodriguez signs for $100,000 under slot
Clement signs for slot
Wade signs for $150,000 under slot (he still gets about what BA projected him for as talent)
Rivera signs for slot
McCarthy signs for slot
Morgan signs for slot
Karinchak signs for $200,000 over slot
Berardi signs for $200,000 over slot
That would give the Indians a draft overage of $185,000. To not lose a first round draft pick next year they have to spend less than $191,000 (5%) over their $3.829 million budget. Thus, the Indians are good as far as that. As Karinchak and Berardi were expected to go in the first 5 rounds, giving them a bonus near the middle of the 5th round (roughly $340,000) seems appropriate.
So, given their lack of first round pick and very low slot in each round due to the Indians' great regular season record last year, I think this has been a very good draft, on paper. Now, the only questions are have the Indians drafted the RIGHT players and have they drafted players they will sign? If they do sign all of these guys and get a few Cody Armstrong, Austin Adams guys late, this could be a very productive draft, something that more than a few fans were thinking might not happen this year.
Well, that is as unsatisfying as a hot fudge sundae hold the hot fudge and hold the ice cream.
How many times in the past have the Indians drafted a guy in the early rounds who was a complete unknown? I remember one time in particular, when the Indians drafted Cody Bunkelman, his college coach said the Indians maybe showed up one time...for a kid they drafted in like the 5th round! Bunkelman lasted about a year and a half and he was gone.
In recent years when we had draft bonus limits, the Indians seemed to have very understandable draft strategies.
Which brings us to this year. Below is a list of the guys the Indians drafted in the top10 rounds this year. Next to each is their draft slot, the Baseball America ranking and the MLB ranking. It is important to note that Baseball America ranks 500 players and MLB ranks only the top 200.
Player, Level, Draft Slot, BA ranking, MLB ranking
Quentin Holmes, HS, 64, 50, 33
Tyler Freeman, HS, 71, 97, 141
Jonathon Rodriguez, HS, 102, 223, not ranked
Ernie Clement, College Jr., 132, 92, 114
Austin Wade, College Sr., 162, 355, not ranked
Michael Rivera, College Jr., 192, 175, 172
Kirk McCarthy, College Jr., 222, 219, not ranked
Eli Morgan, College Jr., 252, 257, not ranked
James Karinkcak, College Jr., 282, 122, 163
Jesse Berardi, 312, 105, 166
OK, what do we make of this? From the scouting reports it looks like we have drafted a bunch of guys with 1, 2 or 3 tools. Nothing wrong there as most of the 5-tool guys are gone early in the draft. The goal, then, should be to pick guys with one outstanding tool and one good one. It sounds like the Indians may have done a lot of that. From a fan point of view this isn't as satisfying as it could be, being like a hot fudge sundae, hold the ice cream.
What pops out right away, though, is that a lot of these guys (6) are ranked about where they should be (for their draft slots) based on two different ranking systems. Yes, there are differences but, as the title says, those differences can mostly be accounted for by different teams valuing different players slightly differently. Four of the picks, the 3rd and 5th round picks and the 9th and 10th round picks are not in line with their talent slot. The first two were drafted higher than their talent slot would indicate and should be signable for less than their slot. Their 9th and 10th round picks were guys who were rated much higher than where they were drafted. They are both college juniors and could go back to school if they can't get enough bonus money. As both thought they would go in the top 5 rounds, they likely will take significantly overslot bonuses to sign.
When I consider their top 10 picks as a package, the Indians appear to have taken the path that makes perfect sense: draft HS kids early, then draft college guys for the rest of the first 10 rounds and, on average, draft guys about where they slot in terms of talent, selecting only one college senior, and a relatively highly ranked one, at that.. As I said before, signing HS kids at the end of the first 10 rounds is difficult. College juniors, however, tend to sign and for slot in the first 7 rounds. Thus, the Indians got HS talent at the top and more assuredness of signing by drafting college players in the rest of the top 10 rounds. So it looks good on paper but the question is...can the Indians sign all these 10 guys and not go over their draft budget? I think they can. Here is how:
Holmes signs for $100,000 over slot
Freeman signs for $65,000 under slot
Rodriguez signs for $100,000 under slot
Clement signs for slot
Wade signs for $150,000 under slot (he still gets about what BA projected him for as talent)
Rivera signs for slot
McCarthy signs for slot
Morgan signs for slot
Karinchak signs for $200,000 over slot
Berardi signs for $200,000 over slot
That would give the Indians a draft overage of $185,000. To not lose a first round draft pick next year they have to spend less than $191,000 (5%) over their $3.829 million budget. Thus, the Indians are good as far as that. As Karinchak and Berardi were expected to go in the first 5 rounds, giving them a bonus near the middle of the 5th round (roughly $340,000) seems appropriate.
So, given their lack of first round pick and very low slot in each round due to the Indians' great regular season record last year, I think this has been a very good draft, on paper. Now, the only questions are have the Indians drafted the RIGHT players and have they drafted players they will sign? If they do sign all of these guys and get a few Cody Armstrong, Austin Adams guys late, this could be a very productive draft, something that more than a few fans were thinking might not happen this year.
Thinking about today's draft
OK, last night's post was rambling but, after the Cavs game, I hope you will bear with me.
So, today, let's have a few more, hopefully, lucid thoughts about yesterday's picks and today's draft.
Yesterday the Indians drafted two HS position players who were ranked about where they were drafted. This implies they are looking long term, maybe with the thought of building on last year's HS-heavy first 10 rounds. Good for them. It also implies that they are not looking to draft a flyer who would require a higher than slot bonus. Again, I applaud that approach as it becomes an all-or-nothing approach as, if you do that, you are likely to draft low cost college seniors who have less upside just to save bonus money for your flyer. .
So, what's ahead for today?
Hopefully the Indians will continue to draft HS players with talent appropriate to their slot. The only issue is that it is hard to get good, highly-ranked HS players who will sign for slot money in rounds after 5. The bonus slots are just not high enough to make it enticing enough for that kid to walk away from a college scholarship. So the task of the scouts becomes more difficult: find a HS player who, while they have a college scholarship offer, don't really want to go to college and will accept slot money in the first 10 rounds...and do that with 29 other teams looking for the same types of kids!
So, expect some college juniors and maybe a juco player to be drafted today.
What you don't generally want to see is, if you are drafting for slot talent at slot prices, the drafting of guys who aren't ranked. If a team does that in the first 10 rounds those draft classes, in my experience, end up in drafts that really, really stink and are unproductive at producing ML players.
Again, I like Skoug and Howard from TCU somewhere in the top 10 rounds. Aside from that, I hope we take HS kids.
So, today, let's have a few more, hopefully, lucid thoughts about yesterday's picks and today's draft.
Yesterday the Indians drafted two HS position players who were ranked about where they were drafted. This implies they are looking long term, maybe with the thought of building on last year's HS-heavy first 10 rounds. Good for them. It also implies that they are not looking to draft a flyer who would require a higher than slot bonus. Again, I applaud that approach as it becomes an all-or-nothing approach as, if you do that, you are likely to draft low cost college seniors who have less upside just to save bonus money for your flyer. .
So, what's ahead for today?
Hopefully the Indians will continue to draft HS players with talent appropriate to their slot. The only issue is that it is hard to get good, highly-ranked HS players who will sign for slot money in rounds after 5. The bonus slots are just not high enough to make it enticing enough for that kid to walk away from a college scholarship. So the task of the scouts becomes more difficult: find a HS player who, while they have a college scholarship offer, don't really want to go to college and will accept slot money in the first 10 rounds...and do that with 29 other teams looking for the same types of kids!
So, expect some college juniors and maybe a juco player to be drafted today.
What you don't generally want to see is, if you are drafting for slot talent at slot prices, the drafting of guys who aren't ranked. If a team does that in the first 10 rounds those draft classes, in my experience, end up in drafts that really, really stink and are unproductive at producing ML players.
Again, I like Skoug and Howard from TCU somewhere in the top 10 rounds. Aside from that, I hope we take HS kids.
Monday, June 12, 2017
The first two picks are in the books
OK, so far the Indians went for HS kids. Not that surprising. I love the strategy of gambling on HS talent and trusting your scouts. Without a first round pick your likelihood of hitting a HR with a pick increases when you pick a HS kid compared to a college kid when you have to wait 63 picks into the draft to get someone. I mean, as good as college kids are, after the first round or so, they aren't that good, generally. Look how many HS kids are drafted and signed. Then imagine that your draft pool of college kids in a particular year has already been depleted of talent three years before that due to HS players signing. Yeah, some kids don't sign out of HS and some develop in college but those guys are generally gone early.
So, the upside for a team like Cleveland without a first round pick is to go with HS kids if they are doing a straight up, draft for your slot, strategy.
Looking at Quentin Holmes (ranked 50 by Baseball America) and Tyler Freeman (ranked 97th by BA), we drafted guys who were appropriate in talent for their slots (64 and 71) within the margin of error of what one scout sees compared to another.
Are these the RIGHT guys? Only time will tell. That's what your scouts and player development staff are for.
So, let's set up day 2 and rounds 3-10.
The Indians have likely not saved any money on Day 1. So, it is likely they have adopted an approach that would not take any flyers and would draft guys in the next 8 rounds who will sign for slot or near slot. The only way that strategy goes in the tank is if the Indians draft a guy in round 3 who will cost a bundle. If they do that then expect them to take a bunch of college seniors and low ranking HS players as I described in my previous post.
If they choose to continue this draft for talent in a slot strategy, I hope they will continue drafting signable HS kids who are talented (to their slot) in rounds 3-10. No flyers, but no underslot kids, either. There is no need to save budget money on this draft, at least not more than say $250,000 or so to sign this year's late round Luke Wakamatsu guy.
So, if the Indians follow the strategy I think they should, tomorrow will be more HS players with maybe a college guy in round 3 if he has some significant upside. I still like Skoug and Howard sometime in the first 10 rounds with the rest of the guys being HS picks.
That being said, signing quality HS pitchers becomes incredibly more difficult after the first 3 rounds so I look for them to grab the best, signable HS pitcher in round 3, if Skoup is available in round 4 take him, then draft some HS position players and Howard in rounds 5-10.
BTW, on a personal note I really don't like Curry and the Warriors. They have this sense of entitlement that is just wrong for young athletes to see. I am very disappointed for young players to see the way they act. Even my daughter, who is an athlete but not a basketball player or fan, picked up on that. Pathetic. Champions, but pathetic. LeBron was great, Kyrie was great, Love was very good and Thompson showed up, finally and Smith wasn't bad, but, frankly, I just don't see the Cavs being able to compete with the Warriors as long as the Warriors remain healthy. Good season by the Cavs but when you unbalance the evenness of the two teams by adding Kevin Durant to one of them, you have pretty much decided the NBA championship before the first regular season game. And, I have to say, Korver and Williams and the other in-season pickups were a waste of time, money and draft picks. Unfortunately guys like that can't play against the Warriors and, particularly Korver, I am very disappointed that he played so poorly missing many open shots. We needed him to do something and, frankly, he did nothing of value, nor did Shumpert and, to a large extent, Jefferson. Korver had one shot at a ring and blew it. It's very unfortunate but that is the case. He tried hard in other aspects but if he isn't hitting 3s he shouldn't be on the floor. End of rant.
So, the upside for a team like Cleveland without a first round pick is to go with HS kids if they are doing a straight up, draft for your slot, strategy.
Looking at Quentin Holmes (ranked 50 by Baseball America) and Tyler Freeman (ranked 97th by BA), we drafted guys who were appropriate in talent for their slots (64 and 71) within the margin of error of what one scout sees compared to another.
Are these the RIGHT guys? Only time will tell. That's what your scouts and player development staff are for.
So, let's set up day 2 and rounds 3-10.
The Indians have likely not saved any money on Day 1. So, it is likely they have adopted an approach that would not take any flyers and would draft guys in the next 8 rounds who will sign for slot or near slot. The only way that strategy goes in the tank is if the Indians draft a guy in round 3 who will cost a bundle. If they do that then expect them to take a bunch of college seniors and low ranking HS players as I described in my previous post.
If they choose to continue this draft for talent in a slot strategy, I hope they will continue drafting signable HS kids who are talented (to their slot) in rounds 3-10. No flyers, but no underslot kids, either. There is no need to save budget money on this draft, at least not more than say $250,000 or so to sign this year's late round Luke Wakamatsu guy.
So, if the Indians follow the strategy I think they should, tomorrow will be more HS players with maybe a college guy in round 3 if he has some significant upside. I still like Skoug and Howard sometime in the first 10 rounds with the rest of the guys being HS picks.
That being said, signing quality HS pitchers becomes incredibly more difficult after the first 3 rounds so I look for them to grab the best, signable HS pitcher in round 3, if Skoup is available in round 4 take him, then draft some HS position players and Howard in rounds 5-10.
BTW, on a personal note I really don't like Curry and the Warriors. They have this sense of entitlement that is just wrong for young athletes to see. I am very disappointed for young players to see the way they act. Even my daughter, who is an athlete but not a basketball player or fan, picked up on that. Pathetic. Champions, but pathetic. LeBron was great, Kyrie was great, Love was very good and Thompson showed up, finally and Smith wasn't bad, but, frankly, I just don't see the Cavs being able to compete with the Warriors as long as the Warriors remain healthy. Good season by the Cavs but when you unbalance the evenness of the two teams by adding Kevin Durant to one of them, you have pretty much decided the NBA championship before the first regular season game. And, I have to say, Korver and Williams and the other in-season pickups were a waste of time, money and draft picks. Unfortunately guys like that can't play against the Warriors and, particularly Korver, I am very disappointed that he played so poorly missing many open shots. We needed him to do something and, frankly, he did nothing of value, nor did Shumpert and, to a large extent, Jefferson. Korver had one shot at a ring and blew it. It's very unfortunate but that is the case. He tried hard in other aspects but if he isn't hitting 3s he shouldn't be on the floor. End of rant.
Let the draft begin!
What a night to start the draft!
First, the Indians don't even a first round pick...or even a supplemental first round pick. Their first pick is #64 and their second pick is #71, both of which will be announced on TV tonight...and the end of a long TV show.
Second, the Cavaliers are playing in another elimination game tonight. Either the city will have a loss hangover or a win hangover tomorrow and few people will worry about the baseball draft.
Third, the low draft status of the Indians' picks mean that the odds of getting more than one impact player out of this draft are minimal.
For those of you who don't remember what I posted after we signed Encarnacion, here are two scenarios I presented back then:
(1) you place all your eggs in one basket drafting a guy projected to go in the first roun who has fallen into the second round for whatever reason and draft college seniors who will sign for $1000 or medium-ranked high schoolers (think guys in BA's top 500 in the area of 250-400) who will sign for slot or below slot money. Think of drafting a guy like last year's Nolan Jones plus a bunch of college seniors like Michael Leftkewicz and HSers like Samad Taylor, both from last year's draft. Hey, this could work out great for the Indians if they take a gamble and it pays off. For people who want to look in the most positive light, the Indians picked up Albert Belle years ago when he dropped due to questions about his personality.
(2) You let your scouts do their work and draft guys appropriate to where they should be drafted but who the scouts think can turn out to be MUCH more than their current value. To me, Jason Kipnis is a guy who falls in that category. He would likely have been passable as a left fielder but, as a secondbaseman, would have been above average.
In either case, don't expect us to take any 'flyers' after round 10. There just won't be any money left over as most teams save most of the money on their first and second round picks. Any money we save on our first couple of picks will almost surely be spent before round 11. After that, it is $100,000 or less guys.
I can't begin to give you a draft projection for possibility (1) but I can imagine one for possibility (2). As a matter of fact, I will give you two lists as I think the Indians could go one of two ways: high schoolers who project long term and college guys like Bieber and Civale last year and Kyle Crockett in the past, who can get to the majors quickly.
College Route:
#64 - Evan Skoug, C, TCU - I don't like this guy as a catcher but if he can play another position (like Kipnis was correctly projected to be able to do) then I love his LH bat. If he can stay at catcher then his value is even greater. I am hoping we can get him for a little under slot or, at worst, slot.
#71 - Drew Rasmussen - RHP - Oregon State - Now, I know he could very easily be gone at 71 but let's hope he isn't. If he is gone then Wil Crowe (who we have already drafted twice), Corbin Martin (RHP, TCU) or Blaine Knight (RHP, Arkansas), the latter I would hope to sign for under slot or slot. The first two might require a little over slot.
#102 - Here is where I would take my one flyer on a guy who will cost me $1 million. This could be a HS player or a college player who has dropped. It will be made tougher as teams will have all night to talk to players who have dropped due to bonus demands or injuries or other reasons. But, in this grouping of players who expected to go on day one but didn't, there has to be someone who thought they would get $1 million who would sign for that. Note that this would take about $500,000 above slot for this pick, meaning we would have to draft mostly college seniors through round 10 and no 'flyers' for the rest of the draft as we would have no money left over. Since the draft tends to be "What have you done for me lately" slanted, here is my guess for a guy who might be left at this point:
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State. I think his actions at third base are such that he might not end up there and may. like Chisenhall, end up in RF. He has hit badly this post-season against better pitching than he sees during the year. I like him in this spot. After Burger, I wouldn't have another guess until I see how the first night of the draft goes.
#132 - I start looking for my college seniors here, finding the best ones I can. Keegan Thompson, RHP from Auburn, who I think we drafted out of HS
#162 - Jerad Oliva CF - Arizona
#192 - Brian Howard RHP - TCU - At 6'9" I like this guy a lot as someone who could come on.
#222 - Jake Latz LHP Kent State
252 - Kick Kennedy LHP Texas
282 - Ricky Tyler Thomas LHP - Long Beach State
312 - Keith Rogalla - RHP - Creighton
After the 10th round I see the Indians taking a lot of junior college guys and, unlike past years, NOT many, if any, HS guys. Maybe one or two if they think they will have any money left over. Historically, however, they have had very little success (Luke Wakamatsu is the one exception I can think of) drafting HS guys in the later rounds.
I will be back with the HS scenario later tonight but to whet peoples' appetites, here are a couple of guys I am thinking about at #64 and 71 if we drafted HS guys at their approximate value:
64 - James Marinan RHP - Fla HS
71 - Greg Jones - SS - NC HS
One more thing: Let's go Cavs! I had a dream that Kyle Korver will hit 7 3s tonight and the Cavs will win.
First, the Indians don't even a first round pick...or even a supplemental first round pick. Their first pick is #64 and their second pick is #71, both of which will be announced on TV tonight...and the end of a long TV show.
Second, the Cavaliers are playing in another elimination game tonight. Either the city will have a loss hangover or a win hangover tomorrow and few people will worry about the baseball draft.
Third, the low draft status of the Indians' picks mean that the odds of getting more than one impact player out of this draft are minimal.
For those of you who don't remember what I posted after we signed Encarnacion, here are two scenarios I presented back then:
(1) you place all your eggs in one basket drafting a guy projected to go in the first roun who has fallen into the second round for whatever reason and draft college seniors who will sign for $1000 or medium-ranked high schoolers (think guys in BA's top 500 in the area of 250-400) who will sign for slot or below slot money. Think of drafting a guy like last year's Nolan Jones plus a bunch of college seniors like Michael Leftkewicz and HSers like Samad Taylor, both from last year's draft. Hey, this could work out great for the Indians if they take a gamble and it pays off. For people who want to look in the most positive light, the Indians picked up Albert Belle years ago when he dropped due to questions about his personality.
(2) You let your scouts do their work and draft guys appropriate to where they should be drafted but who the scouts think can turn out to be MUCH more than their current value. To me, Jason Kipnis is a guy who falls in that category. He would likely have been passable as a left fielder but, as a secondbaseman, would have been above average.
In either case, don't expect us to take any 'flyers' after round 10. There just won't be any money left over as most teams save most of the money on their first and second round picks. Any money we save on our first couple of picks will almost surely be spent before round 11. After that, it is $100,000 or less guys.
I can't begin to give you a draft projection for possibility (1) but I can imagine one for possibility (2). As a matter of fact, I will give you two lists as I think the Indians could go one of two ways: high schoolers who project long term and college guys like Bieber and Civale last year and Kyle Crockett in the past, who can get to the majors quickly.
College Route:
#64 - Evan Skoug, C, TCU - I don't like this guy as a catcher but if he can play another position (like Kipnis was correctly projected to be able to do) then I love his LH bat. If he can stay at catcher then his value is even greater. I am hoping we can get him for a little under slot or, at worst, slot.
#71 - Drew Rasmussen - RHP - Oregon State - Now, I know he could very easily be gone at 71 but let's hope he isn't. If he is gone then Wil Crowe (who we have already drafted twice), Corbin Martin (RHP, TCU) or Blaine Knight (RHP, Arkansas), the latter I would hope to sign for under slot or slot. The first two might require a little over slot.
#102 - Here is where I would take my one flyer on a guy who will cost me $1 million. This could be a HS player or a college player who has dropped. It will be made tougher as teams will have all night to talk to players who have dropped due to bonus demands or injuries or other reasons. But, in this grouping of players who expected to go on day one but didn't, there has to be someone who thought they would get $1 million who would sign for that. Note that this would take about $500,000 above slot for this pick, meaning we would have to draft mostly college seniors through round 10 and no 'flyers' for the rest of the draft as we would have no money left over. Since the draft tends to be "What have you done for me lately" slanted, here is my guess for a guy who might be left at this point:
Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State. I think his actions at third base are such that he might not end up there and may. like Chisenhall, end up in RF. He has hit badly this post-season against better pitching than he sees during the year. I like him in this spot. After Burger, I wouldn't have another guess until I see how the first night of the draft goes.
#132 - I start looking for my college seniors here, finding the best ones I can. Keegan Thompson, RHP from Auburn, who I think we drafted out of HS
#162 - Jerad Oliva CF - Arizona
#192 - Brian Howard RHP - TCU - At 6'9" I like this guy a lot as someone who could come on.
#222 - Jake Latz LHP Kent State
252 - Kick Kennedy LHP Texas
282 - Ricky Tyler Thomas LHP - Long Beach State
312 - Keith Rogalla - RHP - Creighton
After the 10th round I see the Indians taking a lot of junior college guys and, unlike past years, NOT many, if any, HS guys. Maybe one or two if they think they will have any money left over. Historically, however, they have had very little success (Luke Wakamatsu is the one exception I can think of) drafting HS guys in the later rounds.
I will be back with the HS scenario later tonight but to whet peoples' appetites, here are a couple of guys I am thinking about at #64 and 71 if we drafted HS guys at their approximate value:
64 - James Marinan RHP - Fla HS
71 - Greg Jones - SS - NC HS
One more thing: Let's go Cavs! I had a dream that Kyle Korver will hit 7 3s tonight and the Cavs will win.
Friday, June 9, 2017
Is it real or is it Memorex
Wow, if that title doesn't date me, I don't know what will!
For those of you who don't know this was an ad on TV purporting how good a quality recording you could make on this type of audio tape, so good you couldn't tell if it was the actual singer live or a tape of that singer.
But now to the point.
Early in the season you can't tell if a player's aberrationally (is that even a word?) good season will hold up the entire year. If the player is only a minor leaguer there is the additional question of whether that performance will translate to the major leagues in the future.
Let's look at some of the Indians' key (in my opinion) minor leaguers and their performances so far:
Triston McKenzie - This guy has been so good at such a young age that it made me make him my #1 Indians' prospect this winter. Above Zimmer. Above Mejia. Above everyone. Well, this season is even better. If I had to make my list now, McKenzie would still be at the top. I think he can be that good. I think his performance is real and bodes well for his future. His ceiling is really high.
Francisco Mejia - Well, all those people (all three of them, thanks for reading!) who saw my rankings and thought Mejia was better are probably chuckling right now. Mejia has been outstanding so far. Better than outstanding. He has been why-the-heck-hasn't-this-guy-been-promoted-yet good. He is exceeding expectations which, as lofty as they were coming into this season, a pretty strong statement.
Mike Papi - He has been beyond good this year, especially against lefties. To me he has shown more consistent power even in his outs whereas, in the last two years, his outs were really, really weak and his hitting against LHP was, well, terrible. It is still up in the air whether this is real or not but it is encouraging, nevertheless, as EVERY area where he should be making improvements, he IS.
There are lots of other guys who are exceeding expectations this year but these are the guys who come to mind for me, as expectations for them have been high for some time and, if they reach their apparent, current potential, they could be a big part of the Indians' future.
For those of you who don't know this was an ad on TV purporting how good a quality recording you could make on this type of audio tape, so good you couldn't tell if it was the actual singer live or a tape of that singer.
But now to the point.
Early in the season you can't tell if a player's aberrationally (is that even a word?) good season will hold up the entire year. If the player is only a minor leaguer there is the additional question of whether that performance will translate to the major leagues in the future.
Let's look at some of the Indians' key (in my opinion) minor leaguers and their performances so far:
Triston McKenzie - This guy has been so good at such a young age that it made me make him my #1 Indians' prospect this winter. Above Zimmer. Above Mejia. Above everyone. Well, this season is even better. If I had to make my list now, McKenzie would still be at the top. I think he can be that good. I think his performance is real and bodes well for his future. His ceiling is really high.
Francisco Mejia - Well, all those people (all three of them, thanks for reading!) who saw my rankings and thought Mejia was better are probably chuckling right now. Mejia has been outstanding so far. Better than outstanding. He has been why-the-heck-hasn't-this-guy-been-promoted-yet good. He is exceeding expectations which, as lofty as they were coming into this season, a pretty strong statement.
Mike Papi - He has been beyond good this year, especially against lefties. To me he has shown more consistent power even in his outs whereas, in the last two years, his outs were really, really weak and his hitting against LHP was, well, terrible. It is still up in the air whether this is real or not but it is encouraging, nevertheless, as EVERY area where he should be making improvements, he IS.
There are lots of other guys who are exceeding expectations this year but these are the guys who come to mind for me, as expectations for them have been high for some time and, if they reach their apparent, current potential, they could be a big part of the Indians' future.
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