Minor league thoughts for 2018

OK, going in blind to the 2018 minor league season which starts at the end of next week.

That being said, here are some thoughts about the season and possible breakout prospects

1. It is interesting that the Indians are fielding two AZL teams.   I don't know the reasoning as, just looking at last year, I can't reasonably see the need.   Yes, they had one DSL team and one co-op team but looking at the rosters of those teams in the most optimistic light, I can see MAYBE 25 players who would be ready for the AZL, based on their 2017 stats.  Where the Indians would get another 25 or so players is beyond me.  Looking at last year's AZL roster I can see maybe 12 guys who could be coming back to the AZL team this year.  That leaves minimally about 13 draftees who would be on this team.   Hey, it's never a bad idea to give guys more playing time but is it worth the expense?  So we will assume the Indians have a plan (maybe showcasing their younger players hoping some become prime trade bait in July?) but it seems odd that a low budget team would spend money this way.  It should be noted that they plan to repeat the second co-op team in the DSL league.

2. The Columbus and Akron teams may have a really tough time fielding 5 quality starting pitchers this year.  At the same time, with Bieber, Civale and McKenzie, they will definitely have some quality arms.  

3. Overall, the Indians will have an interesting minor league season.   They need to develop a lot more prospects and, for the most part, they have to have some more organizational players step up to become true blue chip prospects.   Hard to do but that is what they need as the 2018 draft won't be huge for the Indians given that they had such a good record last year that their draft slot is really low.

3. Here is my first look at breakout prospects this year.  These are guys who I think will vastly improve their prospect status during the season.

• Zach Plesac
• Will Benson
• Ben Krauth
• Justin Garza (LB State version)
• Brady Aiken (this is an easy pick as his prospect status can't get any lower than it currently is)

Next we will take a look at the final minor league rosters that will post next week.

What to look for in 2018 with the top Indians' prospects

OK, given our winning record for the last few years and the fact that most Indians' fans are focused on our major league team and winning the World Series, it is natural to forget about the minor leagues and our top prospects.

However, we are Cleveland and we always have to be worried about developing prospects because we can't afford the top free agents.

So, let's take a look at what we would hope to get out of our top prospects in terms of development and performance in 2018.

Francisco Mejia - So he is going to play left field.   Great.   Those attempts with other guys like Yandy Diaz and Carlos Santana have gone soooo well!   So let's forget about the outfield experiment and worry about something that is possible.   His hitting.   Mejia has some things to get done yet in the minors.  His walk rate needs to improve.   He needs to avoid the Columbus trap of trying to hit HRs.   His swing is built for gap power and running into 14 HRs like he did last year will be fine if he can be a .300 hitting catcher.  As far as catching, he needs to continue to develop his all-around game.  If he can hit .330 with 10-12 HRs by the all-star break I think he will force his way into the Indians' picture.

Triston McKenzie -  This is an easy one: continue to pitch and develop at the rate he has in the past and stay healthy.   There is not a single thing I can see that he needs to change.   Just keep getting better and refining and, maybe, put on a few more pounds.

Bobby Bradley - With Bradley, this is easy.   He needs to hit lefthanders better.  If he does that his numbers, both primary and peripheral, will get better and become major league level.   Other than that, just keep getting better and maintain his energy level during the season.   People rave about him losing 30 pounds but I want to make sure he has the same energy or better now that he has lost that weight and that he maintains that energy through the entire season.

Nolan Jones - You could say he needs to just play but Jones needs to start tapping into his power and maintain his walk rate and strikeout rate.   Low Class A is notorious for inflating power numbers so if we don't see a bump in power we should all be concerned and we may see Bill Mueller comps start popping up.

Aaron Civale - My pick as the prospect I expect to see make the biggest jump this year, he just needs to pitch and improve and maintain his stamina throughout the whole season in the high minors.

Willi Castro - He needs to start cutting down his error rate while maintaining his offense this year at Akron.  Moving to AA is supposedly the hardest jump a player can make and we will see this year what kind of a prospect he is.   Given the other guys above him on this list, Castro stands a decent chance to be the Indians' top prospect this coming winter if he just keeps getting better at the same rate he did last year.

Shane Bieber - Simple.  Just keep pitching like you are.   It would be nice if some of his secondary stuff became plus to move him up from a 4-5 projection to a 2-3 projection as a ML starter.

Yu-Cheng Chang -He needs to make better contact.  If he maintains his walk rate and power he should be a major leaguer if he can just get his Ks down and him BA up to .270.

Greg Allen - Look, I like Allen but he is currently a relic of the 60s.   For him not just to be an extra outfielder he needs to develop more pop in his bat.   Look at Brett Gardner of the Yankees.   That is the bar for Greg Allen to get over.   If he can't he won't have much ML success, at least not in the AL.

Quentin Holmes - What does he need to get better at?  Everything.  This year he needs to show he can hit for average and draw walks.   Right now, if he can't do that, he stands a chance to not be a very good prospect very soon.  He has to show improvement.

Brady Aiken - Talk about a guy ready to fall out of even the prospect depth chart, Aiken is that guy.   This is a huge year for him.  TJ surgery should be far enough in the rear view mirror that his stuff and moxy should start to take over.   Pitching in the low minors as he will be, he should dominate.  If he struggles again, he could be an early washout as a prospect.

Connor Capel - If I had to make a guess as to which minor leaguer is likely to take a step backward this year it would be Capel.   So, what he needs to do is repeat his 2017 performance at Lynchburg and maybe raise his average 20 points while keeping everything else the same or nearly the same.

Eli Morgan - He just needs to continue to dominate and improve.  He could be the first Indians' draft pick from last year to make the majors.   All he needs to do is continue to learn how to pitch and refine his craft as he competes against tougher and tougher hitters each year.

There are many more prospects who either need to step it up a level or bounce back from disappointing years last year and we will get into those later.  But if all these guys listed above do what they need to do this year, the Indians farm system will look a lot better come December than it even does now.

Time to revisit the Jason Kipnis trade

Last winter Jason Kipnis may have almost been traded.  May....almost...traded.  Who will ever know for sure but it was rumored that the trade was going to happen with the Mets.

However, if the Indians did explore trading him then maybe they should revisit that.  Not that the Mets would have been an ideal trading partner.  Far from it.

Still, the idea was one worth thinking about at the time and again now.

What if we trade Kipnis?

It clears up salary and clears up a starting position.  Depending on who we get back (hopefully bullpen help and a prospect) Erik Gonzalez AND Gio Urshela could make the team.  Or maybe Yandy Diaz makes the team and Ramirez moves to 2nd with Diaz at 3rd.

There are probably a number of potential trade partners and I will explore those in a later post.

But, if I am the Indians, my major remaining spring training activity is to find a trading partner for Kipnis.   I think the time has come to maximize our return on Kipnis and his spring has helped show that he is healthy AND what he can do when he is healthy.

I doubt Kipnis' trade value or actual value will ever be this high again.   For many reasons we need to trade Kipnis.

Spring training and prospects

It seems at this point in spring training every year I am writing this kind of post.

Francona likes veterans at backup/complementary roles.   And how can you argue with the success he has had?

The problem is that we have not done a great job of managing our roster to manage our prospects.  The result is that this spring training Ryan Merritt, Eric Gonzalez and Gio Urshela have to make the 25 man roster or exposed to waivers.

If your eye is on the prize of winning the World Series you probably say 'So what?'

The problem is that we can not keep bleeding prospects.   Jesus Aguilar last year was lost in such a way and, with reasonable playing time in Milwaukee (yes, the Milwaukee that had a really good season last year) he did pretty well, especially against lefthanded pitching.

I just don't think you can keep plugging in veterans in backup/complementary roles.   If you do you will continue the lose viable prospects.  

The truth is that we will get essentially nothing for Urshela, Gonzalez and Merritt, even if we trade them near the end of spring training.  Unproven rookies are not worth much in trade but are very valuable to a team that WILL find a place for them, just like the Brewers with Jesus Aguilar.   Small market teams can't do that.   They need those players for July/August trades and, even more, they need the payroll flexibility keeping some of those guys on your 25 man roster gives you.   AND, you protect yourself for the future when you lose veterans to free agency.

I don't know how we will do it but we have to start doing a better job planning for rookies to be on our team every year.   I just don't think we can suffer the frustration of losing these guys for nothing and then having to backfill complementary player roles on our team with more expensive veterans (think Boone Logan, among others).

So, find great trades for Merritt, Gonzalez and/or Urshela or keep them on your roster and do a better job of incorporating your 40-man roster into your 25 man roster and don't bring in expensive veterans for roles these young players can take.   It is just not good business for the Cleveland Indians to keep throwing these players away for nothing.

Today Merritt, Urshela and Gonzalez.   Tomorrow Yandy Diaz, Bobby Bradley, Tyler Naquin and others?  I vote no and I say the Indians need to do a better job of planning so as not to lose those guys for nothing like we did with Aguilar, Hector Rondon and others.  

You know you are getting old when...

...your favorite baseball player dies.

You know, it was a couple of years before I would bring myself to call Terry Francona by his father's nickname.

You see, Tito Francona was and probably still is my favorite baseball player.  He was around when I was old enough to realize that I would probably be a lifelong Indians fan.  I latched on to him.  I don't even know why.   Maybe it was because he was left-handed and played the outfield like I tried to do.  Maybe it was because he hit .363 when I was 6 years old, the first memory I have of being an Indians fan.  I don't really know why.

It's weird that you don't realize how close you are in age to these guys.  He was only 19 years older than me.  He could have been a really older brother or maybe an uncle instead of this guy I put on a pedestal.

I don't know what kind of a person Francona was but, in the dark ages of Indians' baseball, he was my light that kept me going.   When he moved on to St. Louis I would listen to Jack Buck and Harry Caray broadcasting over KMOX in St. Louis with my transistor radio under my pillow so that my parents didn't know I was still awake and so I wouldn't disturb my brothers who were trying to sleep.   I did the same thing when he moved on to Atlanta.

He was my favorite player and you follow your favorite player wherever he goes.   As I was cleaning out some stuff the other day I noticed that I still had an article cut out from a paper the day after Tito had a 5 hit day for the Oakland A's when he was 35 years old and was mostly just a pinch hitter towards the end of his career.   I remember that, for luck, I would carry that article around in my wallet...for years.   It was just a little article but, when it is a highlight in the career of your favorite player you save it.  I saw the title of an article that said he was the oldest living Oakland A.   Seems odd to me but just another thing that made him special, I guess.  Maybe I will tape it to a condolence card and send it to our manager, the new Tito Francona.

I will never forget the effect Tito Francona just playing the game he loved had on me.   It made me a lifelong Indians fan.   His son managing the Indians to more success than Tito's Indians ever had makes it even more special.   Tito Francona was a ballplayer when ballplayers were larger than life.  He was a ballplayer when little kids looked up to ballplayers for all the right reasons.   I don't know how many other people considered him their favorite baseball player but I hope he now knows that he had a least one person who thought that the baseball world, and a little kid's world, revolved around him.

Thoughts on a Sunday - The clock is ticking

Spring training is around the corner and I am getting antsy.

No, not for baseball to start.  After watching the Cavs and Indians the last two years the regular season is only the prelude with both teams having enough talent to easily make the playoffs.   Doesn't mean it will happen but the Indians have enough talent if they stay healthy and productive.

I am getting antsy because the Indians have done essentially NOTHING to fix their two problems: the losses caused by losing hitters (Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce) and relief pitchers (Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith and Shawn Armstrong).

Let's start with the hitters.   I woke up yesterday with a great idea:  what if we sign JD Martinez to an outrageous one year deal, say $30 million, to bridge him through this year where he can't seem to get the multiyear deal he wants.  Yes, it blows our budget for this year but there is no long term commitment there.   Then I read the same thing on the internet.   Great minds think alike, I guess.   But, yes, that appears to be a novel and unique way to get the superstar you want without the long term commitment.  Martinez gets more money than any player probably deserves in a year and we get a guy who is a great hitter without having to pay him through his declining years.  I know this is just monopoly money to me but REAL money to the owners of the Indians but it is a way to make this team instantly better, better to the point where it might be able to suffer an injury to our big 3 (Ramirez, Lindor, Encarnacion) and still not be devastated.  Right now, if one of those guys go down we are screwed as we have no guys in the minors or majors who are likely to be able to take up the slack for such an injury.

So, likely this won't happen but it is a way to make this team instantly better and not destroy the long term budget or set us up with untradeable superstars if we want to blow it up next year.

Now the relievers.  Look, fans, we are in a desperate situation here! We need relievers.  Here is the projected Indians pitching staff in 2018:

Corey Kluber SP
Carlos Carrasco SP
Trevor Bauer SP

Mike Clevinger SP/RP
Josh Tomlin SP/RP
Danny Salazar SP/RP
Ryan Merritt SP/RP

Cody Allen RP
Andrew Miller RP
Dan Otero RP
Nick Goody RP
Tyler Olsen RP
Zach McAllister RP

That's 13 guys.   That's 5 starters and a Francona bullpen (8 guys).  And, to even make this happen, two of the starters would have to take on full-time bullpen roles, something they have NEVER done in their life and NO ONE could get hurt!

There is no margin for error here and, frankly, I am already pretty sure there is something wrong with Corey Kluber.

After those 13 guys we have Adam Plutko, Julian Merryweather and Shawn Morimando on the 40 man roster and NONE of the pitchers we signed to minor league deals has ANY success in the majors as a reliever.

We have lots of relief arms in the minors but none of them look like they are ready now for the majors and, given the nascent stuff that those guys have, it is questionable if they will ever be ready to take over a significant role in the majors, let alone this year.

Basically, we're screwed if ANYONE in the top 13 gets hurt.   Plus, even if everyone stays healthy we are still looking at having to add a reliever or two at the deadline to help us down the stretch and into the playoffs.   Given what we had to give up for Joe Smith last year (Pannone and Taylor) our farm system can't really afford to make many, if any, more trades like that for relievers who we could have had for pennies in free agency.  

And this is where I get ticked off.   Even if you eliminate relievers who have gotten multiple year deals, the following relievers (with what they signed for) seem like the type we could have easily fit in our payroll.

Jeff Manship - minor league deal
Sergion Romo - $2 million
Dustin McGowan - minors
Frankie Rodriguez - minors
Seung Hwan Oh - $2.75 million
Blaine Boyer - minors
Bruce Rondon - minors
Jeanmar Gomez - minors
Tom Koehler - $2 million
Travis Wood - minors

Given what these guys signed for, we could have signed a couple or three as insurance.  Now, you can say that given our roster, these guys might have seen the Indians as not needing anyone. However, these are all seasoned major leaguers with agents. They, even more than us fans, know that with injuries you need more than 8 relievers to get through a season.  In fact, I would say that the Indians, as a winning team, would have been attractive to a number of these guys, if they saw that our depth in the bullpen was non-existent, if not a real weakness of this team.  Maybe I could be wrong, don't know.

So, where does that leave us?   There are still plenty of guys out there but, frankly, I would rather have 2 or three of the guys above rather than any one of them.

Matt Belisle
Trevor Cahill
Tyler Clippard
Jason Grilli
Greg Holland
Francisco Liriano
Jason Motte
Eric O'Flarherty
Oliver Perez
Zach Putnam
Robbie Ross
Trevor Rosenthal
Kevin Segrist
Koji Uehara
Tony Watson

There is still time but a lot of these guys above will take more money than we can spend and the rest may be done as far as being effective major league relievers either due to age or injury.   Still, we need to do something because we are flirting with disaster that could make us lose our almost guaranteed playoff spot just because we wouldn't invest a couple of million dollars and a couple of minor league invites to help out our $100+ million payroll achieve what it should achieve.

I am telling you, we are screwed if we don't sign a reliever or two from this list as we will soon be putting out on the mound guys cut after spring training or minor leaguers of questionable talent if we don't do something.  That is not what the preemptive favorite in the AL Central should be doing.

A case study in 'blowing it up' for a rebuild

This is a Cleveland (insert new nickname) baseball blog.  But sometimes we have to talk about other things to get back to baseball.

In this case, I want to talk about doing an extreme makeover on the Cavaliers.  Also, this could serve as a blueprint for what we might want to do with the Indians in 2020 if that season is not going well.

Now, I am not the biggest Cavs fan in the world, to be sure.   But they are my hometown team and I do follow them pretty closely.  Anyone who has seen them play this year has one hope:  they are just coasting through the season and will turn it on when it counts.  Well, what if the likelihood of this happening is very small?  Then you have to consider tearing it down and starting again.

 Right now the Cavs have one mega trading chip and some questionable other ones. It's not a great situation for a quick re-tool or even a less than quick rebuild.

The point here is that the Cavs have built this roster to win now.  They signed guys to extensions to keep the nucleus together.  Those extensions, in and of themselves, were made based on the perceived value of those players to the Cavaliers winning the NBA championship (e.g., Thompson, JR Smith, Kyle Korver).   However, those contracts make it harder to do a complete tear down as these players were overvalued by their home team compared to what their production would indicate.  Plus I don't know if the veterans they have on veteran minimum contracts are tradeable and, if they are, how much would they bring back.  So the Cavs really SHOULD tear it down at this point as it appears more and more each day that LeBron is gone after this year.   However, the Cavs really can't, unless their GM is a genius and the players on their roster have much more value to other teams than I think they do.  So they may have to go for it again this year and that likely will send them deeper into the hole by trading picks and young assets to get veterans they need, which, in turn, will make a rebuild even harder.  It becomes a never-ending cycle when LeBron leaving looks more and more like a certainty every moment.  So you might have to sell REALLY low and look for a horrible and long rebuild.   Frightening for any long-time Cleveland sports fan, I am sure as you might have TWO major franchises in your city that no one cares about.

By 2019 or 2020 the Indians might be in the same position, depending on the luck that they have.  The good news is that I don't see a single bloated contract on the Indians.  At this point, except for Kipnis, all their marquee players are VERY tradeable.  Plus, we are not going out and signing compensation free agents and losing draft picks.   All that is good for the Indians.   But we need not to follow the Cavs example.  If we do, by next year, we might be needing a rebuild or a re-tool and we night not be able to make that happen.

Let's hope the Indians long term plan continues to allow flexibility for a complete rebuild, if necessary.  I don't ever want to be in the position the Cavs find themselves right now...let alone in the position the Browns find themselves.