It's Tuesday, let's talk baseball!

 First, it does my heart good to read an article that talks about the White Sox replacing Cesar Hernandez during the playoffs because he isn't performing to the level they thought he should...after they stole him from the Indians at the deadline.   Well White Sox fans, let's just say that you're getting about what you paid for.  Konnor Pilkington is worth just about as much sa the September version of Hernandez.   All that being said, Hernandez is EXACTLY the type of professional who can turn around a mediocre season in the post-season.   My prediction is he will and the Sox fans will be happy...and I will still be pissed that we gave Hernandez away for a guy we may not even protect from the Rule 5 draft.

Eddie Rosario hit for the cycle the other day.  Still liking that trade more than than the Hernandez trade because Battenfield has better stuff and isn't Rule 5-eligible.

The Anthony Gose story is a great one and it gives me goosbumps just thinking about it.   I am really pissed they chose to bring him into the second game rather than pitch after the first game was out of reach.   I imagine they saved him for the bullpen, second game because he could go more than one inning.   Still, the goal is to win games and Hentges in the second game gave us a better chance to win.   Gose should have gotten his moment in the sun in a blowout, not in a winnable game where he gave up an important run.

That being said, here is the reality about Gose.  He is the kind of guy who, 100 mph fastball notwithstanding, should be a minor league invitee to spring training with a good chance to make the team.  Hey, the guy is Jim Morris Part Deux.  We don't want to be the 55-106 2002 Rays who could afford to have a feel-good story to bring in some crowd interest.  So while Gose is a feel-good story, can we really spend a roster spot on him this winter and risk losing a guy like Jose Tena or Oscar Gonzalez, or even a lesser prospect, in the Rule 5 draft if we protect Gose.   No, if we don't make trades, there is no room on this winter's roster for Gose.   Next season's 26-man roster?  More of a chance actually.   So Gose should enjoy the rest of this month and use it as a springboard when he is DFA'd after the season to re-sign to a minor league deal with a spring invite (after the Rule 5, wink!) with the team that gave him this chance.

I saw where Ka-ai Tom was released by Pittsburgh.   They offered him back to the Indians but, not surprisingly, the Indians didn't take him back because of their roster crunch.   They may re-sign him this winter but now is not the time as he would have to be rostered (not warranted after this season) or exposed to the Rule 5 draft again.

Now to the Indians.   As I said yesterday: 73-74 with 15 games to go and only 4 games against teams with a winning record.   No way we don't end the season with a winning record.  One day later we have already lost two against a losing team.   If this team tanks it through the end of the season Demarlo Hale should never get another major league managing opportunity.   WInning organizations don't tolerate tanking at the end of the season, especially when your roster is a veteran one.   Time to make the boys win, Dermarlo,  Right now, to me, it looks like you have lost this club house.   Prove me wrong.  Please! 

Thoughts for a Sunday

 Baseball doesn't get much better than the Indians embarassing the Yankees in a series in New York.   Highlights from today:

• The Indians ducksnorted the Yankees to death.   Ahhh, nothing pisses off fans of a money-rich, high expectations team than to be whipped into submission with a wet noodle.
• The Yankees fans booing Gerrit Cole as he leaves the mound.   Really, Gerrit, what the perfect time for a thumbs down and you let the moment go by.  
• The Yankees being beaten by a guy who came into the game with a 2-7 record and an atrocious ERA over 5 for the season.   As someone said, today's game with a matchup between a Cy Young candidate and a guy who pitched like one.  Good on ya, Eli!
• Finally, the icing on the cake was Trevor Stephan, a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees, coming in to strike out the side.   Yankees fans on the edge of insanity by what went on today were likely pushed over the edge with this salting of their wounds.   Gotta love it if you are a Tribe fan!

As if that was not enough, the Rubberducks eliminated Somerset, the Yankees AA team, from the playoffs with a come-from-behind win.   Jose Fermin adding to his case of being rostered this winter with a game-tying 3-run HR in the 8th followed by a George Valera 17-hopper through the left side to beat the shift and drive in the go-ahead run.  Didn't try to do too much, didn't try to hit it out of the park, just got the job done.  Are you watching Andres Gimenez?

I have to admit that, even with things that I had to get done, I spent my afternoon and savored every pitch of the Indians game.   It was just the tonic I needed heading into another week.

Now, all that being said, the Indians are now 73-74.   Thus they are one game under .500 with 15 games left to play.    They have 4 games against the White Sox and 11 games against the Royals and Rangers.  That's right, 11 games against teams with losing records and 4 games against teams with winning records.  Baseball is a crazy thing and anything can happen (look at today!).   However, the Indians should feel some pressure and gird their loins to push to the end of this season as they have a good chance to finish this year with a winning record.   They are not just playing out the season, they are playing for the pride of having the best record possible.  This is a team that has been here all year, not a bunch of September callups with wide eyes.   They can end the season with a push that will get them into next year and I hope they can take advantage of these last two weeks.   

For one of the last times we will be able to say it.  Go Tribe!  (and go Rubberducks!).

Baseball Rule 5 History - Last 10 years - Part 2

 There are two key questions regarding the Rule 5:

How many players do teams lose?

What do the eventual careers look like for these players?

After all, if teams are losing players who are below replacement level, what does it matter?  Right?

So let's look, in the last 10 years, how many players have made a difference with their new teams or later in their career, or both.   

I will rate these guys in 4 categories: No impact (cup of coffee, maybe some potential for the future); some impact (a few years in the majors as say a middle reliever or utility infielder/outfielder), low- or high-medium impact (trending toward good long-term impact) or long career (starter level performance touching all-star level or higher).  I excluded the 12 players drafted in 2020 because we don't have enough information on how they will turn out although for guys like Trevor Stephan and Akil Badoo, there is potential

In my non-scientific, non-analytics view, here is what I found when looking at the 56 of 127 players drafted in the Rule 5 in 2011-2019 who were kept by their drafting team:

Long career or high-medium impact: 7 (Marwin Gonzalez, Mark Canha, Odubel Herrera, Ryan Pressley, Anthony Santander, Hector Rondon and TJ McFarland)

Low medium impact: 8

some impact: 14

no impact: 27

SUMMARY

About 50% of the players kept by teams after the Rule 5 (25% of all players drafted) had some or large impact on the team that drafted them or their subsequent team(s).  Seven (7) had significant impact with 3 of the 6 Indians' prospects drafted before 2020 but after 2010 falling into that significant impact group.

So, what did we learn from this?  Teams tend not to protect guys in their low minors (e.g., Anthony Santander) because they think they won't get selected because they are too far from the majors.   Sometimes teams have roster crunches which make them more inclined to try to not protect prospects who won't be truly ready to help them the next season (e.g., low minors guys, quality prospects coming off injuries, one-tool (e.g., 100 mph fastball but no other redeeming value like Juan Mota this year) guys.  Anecdotally it has happened in the past (e.g., Hector Rondon) where a guy was having a great fall/winter season and teams didn't take that into account when they were deciding whether to protect a guy or not.

Sometimes teams have every reason to think a guy won't stick with another team (see TJ McFarland for example).  The new team can have patience with them because they are rebuilding whereas the team that doesn't protect that player sees them as being someone who is not going to hit cleanup or leadoff or close games or be a #3 starter for years, or maybe ever.   Like the amateur draft sometimes teams just whiff (e.g., Albert Pujols when he was drafted and even Shane Beiber and Corbin Burnes, if you want to look at first round talent who went later in the draft and then just developed in the minors.

Judging talent is not an exact science.   However, if the choice exists  to roster a prospect who won't be ready in 2022 or gamble to not protect him because you have to keep enough ML ready guys on your 40 man roster to field a ML team next year or leave roster spots to sign low- to mid-level free agents or minor league signee guys (e.g. Bryan Shaw) to keep your team having an outside shot of being a wildcard team next year, THAT is where you can really get burned long term.   This is especially true with franchises who have low payrolls and count on pre-arbitration year salaries to keep that payroll down.

That's it for now on the 40-man roster/Rule 5 topic.   After the season we will break down the 40 man roster to see who should be traded, DFA'd or just released.   Until then I will post on other topics related to the major leagues and our minor league prospects.

Baseball Rule 5 History - Last 10 Years - Part 1

To continue on the theme of the 40 man roster crunch this winter, here are some stats from around baseball to consider over the past 10 years of the MAJOR LEAGUE Rule 5 drafts:

MOST PLAYERS LOST BY A TEAM

Minnesota - 5 of 7 players drafted in the ML portion of the draft were lost.  2 were returned.

Cleveland - 5 of 9  

Tampa Bay - 5 of 9

Houston - 5 of 11

New York Yankees - 5 of 16 

MOST PLAYERS DRAFTED FROM A TEAM 

New York Yankees - 16

Houston - 11

Cleveland - 9

Chicago Cubs - 9

Tampa Bay - 9

MOST PLAYERS DRAFTED BY A TEAM

Baltimore - 15

Philadelphia - 10

Arizona - 8

Miami - 8

FEWEST PLAYERS DRAFTED BY A TEAM (NUMBER THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ON THEIR ROSTER)

Los Angeles Dodgers - 0 (0)

Washington - 1(0)

Tampa Bay - 1 (0)

St. Louis - 2 (1)

Cleveland - 3 (1)

ANALYSIS 

Cleveland tied for the most players lost in the Rule 5 over the last 10 years (5) and was near the top in most players drafted (9).   They were near the bottom in players that they drafted actually keeping (1 - Trevor Stephan this year).  Note that the Yankees had a bunch of players drafted (16) but the 3rd lowest rate (5/16) in baseball of actually losing players drafted from them (only TB 0/4 and Washington 1/6 had lower percentages).

In Part 2 we will look at the impact of the players teams lost, which is also part of the equation to determine whether teams are being hurt or helped by the Rule 5 draft.

Cleveland Indian Rule 5 History

 2020 - Lost: Ka'ai Tom, Luis Oviedo; Gained:Trevor Stephen

2019 - Lost: None; Gained: None

2018 - Lost: Kyle Dowdy (later returned);  Gained: None

2017 - Lost: Jordan Milbrath (later returned); Gained: None

2016 - Lost: Anthony Santander; Gained: None

2015 - Lost: Josh Martin (later returned); Gained: None

2014 - Lost: None; Gained: None

2013 - Lost: None; Gained: None

2012 - Lost: Hector Rondon, TJ McFarland; Gained: Chris McGuiness (later returned)

2011 - Lost: No one; Gained: No one

So, in the last 10 years we lost FIVE guys who wound up staying with the club who drafted them.   THREE of them have had successful ML careers so far and the others were just in their first year in the majors this year.

Each and every one of those years we haggled about 1-2, maybe 3 players who were targets and I was seldom correct (except for Hector Rondon).   Still, that's the point.  It was 1-2 players who we thought might have a chance to be drafted.   Depending on how the 40-man roster situation plays out, we could be looking at 8-10 prospects and most of them will be better than any prospect who we lost in this draft in the last 10 years.  

IT'S TIME TO TAKE A STAND!

OK, after substantial research I have now come to grips with something that I had not considered previously.

THE PLAYER DEVELOPMENT RULES IN MLB ARE SERIOUSLY FLAWED AND THAT WAS EXACERBATED BY 2020.  

In brief, here are the issues:

• Latin amateur free agents generally sign when they are 16.   That signing period, up to last year, started on July 1st.  
• If they sign on July 1st or anytime up to around Sept. 1st, they have to be assigned to a team that year even though they don't really start playing until the following year
• Baseball's Rule 5 draft rules say that if you are less than 19 years old when you sign your first contract you have 5 years of development before you would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  It is 4 years for guys who are signed after they turn 19.   Again, the Rule 5 'clock' starts the year they are drafted as they have to sign before the minor leagues end play that year.   
• While there are rules for US HS kids (under 19) and college-age kids (over 19), the 16 year old Latin kids are lumped in with the 18 year old HS kids, the latter having been exposed to traveling teams and, in a lot of cases, to the showcase circuit and for a select few, to youth national team coaches.

In summary, the Rule 5 rules assume that the development (emotionally, physically and professionally) for 16 year old Latin kids playing in another country is identical to that of 18 year old HS kids who are playing in their own country.

That just is not fair for these young Latin kids.   One way to think about it is that a good number of these HS kids who are drafted every year didn't even start on their HS teams as 16 year old sophomores whereas the Latin kids are playing professionally.  Should they be placed on the same Rule 5 clock?  Absolutely not.

Now, on top of the standard lack of fairness that Latin kids and the teams that sign them have to live with, the fact that even though there were no minor leagues last year, the Rule 5 clock for minor leaguers was allowed to keep going.   

So, an unfair system became more unfair.     

And that is what will likely have a huge impact on the Indians this off-season.   

So, here is the thing:

 MLB, right now, even ahead of the labor negotiations this year, needs to not count 2020 on any prospect's Rule 5 clock.   

They should have done that already as I am sure teams have made trades (e.g., the Indians trading Yainer Diaz to the Astros) knowing they won't be able to protect a player this winter and may lose them for little or no return if they didn't trade them now.

However, there is still time to do it ahead of this year's freezing of the 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 draft.

For teams like Cleveland, their lifeblood is player development.   They can't, like the Dodgers, Yankees and other big market teams, buy their way out of bad player development.   Exposing guys who have lost a year of development, especially the then 16-year old international free agent class of 2017 (Valera, Tena, Noel, Rocchio, Planez) to the Rule 5 based on a flawed system exacerbated by a global pandemic that wasn't addressed at all by MLB really helps to keep the disparity between the haves and have nots in baseball.   

This isn't right.   MLB needs to address this now and, then, in turn, change the rules so players who have not graduated from HS at the time they are signed (i.e., Latin amateur free agents) get an extra year of protection from the Rule 5.  

It's getting more complicated by the day but there may be a little light at the end of the tunnel.

 Let's talk about the 40 man roster situation again.    

• Steven Kwan is ripping the cover off the ball at AAA after he hit about .340 at AA.   He is Ka'ai Tom 2.0 (short outfielder without great power who can hit and hit and hit and plays OK defense).   We already have Mercado and Johnson, both of whom are coming alive.   
• Oscar Gonzalez is launching HRs like crazy.   The thing with Oscar is that he walks at way too low a rate (79 times in 1963 ABs), which as the theory goes, will make him easy prey for refined ML pitchers.   I also am not sure he can turn around 97+ mph fastballs.
• Jose Fermin's AAA production might make him attractive to some team in the Rule 5 as they can stash him as a utility infielder.
• Andruw Monasterio and Connor Marabell are hitting well at AAA.  While they are under-the-radar guys whose stats could be attributed to their maturity and experience at higher levels in the minor leagues, they are elbowing their way into the thought process that they might, eventually, be ML players.  

Of these guys only Gonzalez was in my thought process about who we should consider protecting from the Rule 5.    But these other guys, especially Kwan, are making a case for themselves.   It presents a problem.   When you are the Cleveland Indians the potential loss of a prospect for little tangible return because you have other, more talented prospects is never 'good problem to have'.  

So the beat goes on relative to having too many borderline major leaguers currently on the 40-man and too many prospects to protect ahead of this year's Rule 5 draft.

A couple of more points:

• Teams are allowed to make trades now if the guys traded are not currently on their 40-man rosters.  These minor league deals seem very appealing to me right now if we think that guys like Daniel Johnson, Justin Garza and Francisco Perez will be on our roster next year.
• In the research I have done I see no reason why ANY of the guys from our 2017 international free agent class would be eligible for the Rule 5 this year.   So guys like Jose Tena, George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, Johnkensy Noel and Alexfri Planaz, among others, should still be protected from the Rule 5 for another year.   That is not what is being reported but I am pretty sure, if I understand the rules, that these guys are not eligible (signed before they were 19 years old, not assigned to a team until 2018).   They all have only 4 seasons of minor league experience meaning they have another one to go before they are eligible.   As I said, I have reached out to a number of experts who I hope will confirm what I am thinking.