Good Night To Be A Fan Of The Guardians And Other Thoughts

(1) Great pitching by McKenzie.  Great clutch hitting by the team.  Great close out by Stephan and Clase.
The team played well...again...and came out with the win.

(2) Do you think that if Hedges has to go on the IL they would burn a roster spot on Bo Naylor?  Conventional Cleveland MO would say they would bring up Lavastida as the backup as he is on the roster already.   In theory this would be a short term thing as it doesn't look, right now, that Hedges would be on the IL long, if he even goes on it at all. As such, would you really want to burn one of Naylor's options to just have him up for a few games?  Hey, I get adding guys in September when the rosters expand by 2 and you don't have to worry about sending a guy down again.  But our catching duo is Hedges and Maile and I don't see that changing this year.  So, if anyone comes up and Cleveland operates as it has in the past, it will be Lavastida.  Now, if I am wrong, that will tell you something about the Guardians' philosophy and that they would be sending a consistent message to the minor leaguers: excel in the lower minors and get promoted.  Excel at AAA and, when a chance arises, get promoted.  Is THAT message worth losing one of Bo Naylor's option years?  Hmmmmm!?!?!?!

(3) I think Cody Morris has to come off the 60-day IL soon as his 30 days rehab assignment is about to expire.  I think we lose Castro or McCarthy at that point.  Interesting that the Guardians are saying that Morris could help later in the season if he continues to show he is ready.   Can you say adding him for the stretch run in September?

(4) Tito's comments about Gose makes you wonder if they keep him on the 60 day IL the rest of the season.  I don't know what the post-season rules are now but they used to be that the spot of a guy on the 60 day IL can be given to a minor leaguer even if he has never been added to the 40-man.  That could be how they bring Bo Naylor up.  Give him the who minor league season and then bring him up for the playoffs, if we get that far.

(5) I know that there are no mulligans in baseball but do we all realize that two bad pitches resulted in all the runs Hunter Gaddis has given up since he returned to Columbus after his start in Cleveland.   Gaddis still has a lot of helium with me.  More in the bullpen than in the rotation but I could see hm starting the season at AAA and be the first callup to the majors if we need an extra starter next year.

(6) Speaking of performing after seeing your dream brush by you (cue Burt Lancaster here), Battenfield pitched a vintage Battenfield game in Columbus tonight for Columbus.  I know his stuff is not overpowering but I would love to see if he could become more than Tully, Pilkington and McCarthy.  I see a Civale comp for him and that would be good for me.  Keep working, big guy.

(7) Speaking of pure stuff and velo, I thought Tanner Burns looked like his velo was down even more on Thursday than ever before (87-90 mph on his fastball)....until I watched Bibee pitch tonight.   Bibee is normally sitting at 94-96 while easily touching 97 and once in a while 98.  Today he was sitting at 90-93 which really worried me until I saw Ty Madden sitting at 91-94 and touching 95.  Either Madden, Bibee and Burns are suffering simultaneous arm fatigue or the radar gun in Erie needs to have some serious recalibration done.   Even saying that, Burns is looking very hittable right now and, to me, is quickly falling in the Guardians' prospect rankings.   

(8) I have to take back what I said about leaving Angel Martinez exposed to the Rule 5 draft this winter.  With the way he is closing out the season (disregarding tonight's game) I think he is putting himself in position for a team to draft him in the Rule 5.  Losing a top 10 prospect in the Rule 5 is not something a team like the Guardians should ever do.  Gabriel Rodriguez, while having a solid season, is a much better bet not to stick as a utility guy on a rebuilding team, thus likely being returned to the Guards even if he is drafted.  Ditto for Jonathon Rodriguez.  I just don't think he has the track record to be drafted in the Rule 5 this winter.  I think that next year he could go all Oscar Gonzalez on us but I don't see a team gambling on the second half of his 2022 season be anything more than a blip...unless he tears up Akron this last handful of games.  And he isn't doing that out of the gate since his promotion.  

(9) Most minor league prospects, even the good ones, wind up going back to the minors at least once before they stick for good.  I would like to see Will Benson get at least a week of steady play to see if he can stick.  I think that some of the signs with Nolan Jones are very encouraging but, recently, I don't know if he adds more than Benson would as a starter.  I think that both Benson and Jones will end up spending more time at AAA before they finally hit the majors for good, even though I think both of them will have significant major league careers.  Don't think I would have said that last year!

(10) Speaking of major league careers, the Guardians strategy has cost Will Brennan a callup, at least at this point.  He is in the same funk that Owen Miller was in when we called him up last spring.  None of us could believe how bad Miller looked at the plate last year and I think a lot of it was that you just don't want to call up a guy for his first big league experience when he is mired in a slump.  I think letting Brennan have a couple of days off would be good for him and then, starting Tuesday, fire him up for a mid-September callup if we need a spark.  Hope to see him this year makng an impct on whether we make and, if we do, do well in the playoffs.  Think Randy Arozarena, but with less power.

It's always nice going to sleep knowing that the Guardians are in first place!  Good night and get some rest.  We need to all be strong so that we can root for our team.  They'll need us for the rest of this wonderful, crazy ride that they (and we) are on this year.

Adversity and Other Wednesday Thoughts

 Adversity

I was fighting mad after last night's game.   

(a) blocking the plate call - just BS.  My mind goes back to last week when Scoop almost broke Luis Robertts' hand by kneeling in front of and totally blocking second base.  Firstbasemen do this all the time with guys dving back into first base. Where Hedges was was not blocking the plate.  Baez had a path.  Maybe not the path he thought he would have or wanted but a path.  BS call.

(b) Kwan's stolen base, uh, caught stealing - Clear replay evidence showing that he was safe.  More than enough to overturn the call unless there was an angle none of us saw.  Don't think so.

(c) Straw's third strike.  First, Straw is just pathetic.  A veteran like Straw should be able to get that runner home.    That being said, Straw was out.  Foul tip, catcher caught the ball.   But the plate umpire was emphatic,  Foul ball, ball hit the ground.   OK, so the call was wrong and the umpires meant to get the call right.  In any other situation I would have been OK with it.  Except that it occurred after (a) and (b).

(d) Ball one on Kwan - OK, looking at the replay the third base umpire screwed up.  He called time so that he could yell at and, I think, toss Straw.   But he screwed up.  Have some thickness to your skin, buddy.  And, if you are going to call time to make it all about you, then do it during a dead ball, not when the ball is in play.   Did it change the AB?  Who knows but it was just icing on the cake of a screwed up game by the umpires and the replay crew.

Summary: The umpires and the replay crew stole momentum and, very arguably, the game from the Guardians.  That being said, this is NOT the definition of adversity.  Adversity is having your whole starting rotation decimated by injury or having your star player being out a lot of the season.  Or just a bunch of injuries at the worst time (like the Guardians last year).   This is one game.  It doesn't really matter in the final standings and if it does it means that there were 20 other games the Guardians screwed up, any one of which could have offset yesterday's game.   As a coach once told me, if you don't let the game get close you take it out of the referee's hands.

Now let's put this behind us.  We have to get ready for tonight's game and the huge series we have with the White Sox this weekend.  We do not want Monday's first game of the Detroit series being our high water mark for the year.   I think last year this happened and we ended up at 80-82 and none of us wants to see that again.

Minors

Where is Daniel Espino.  First we heard knee, then we heard knee and shoulder, now we hear knee.  Why is it and where is he on getting back this season.

Gavin Williams - Wow, what a stud so far.   Still, seeing what Logan T. Allen is going through at AAA, there are more hurdles for Williams to get over.

Jose Tena vs Angel Martinez - Tena's on the roster.  If we take him off we definitely lose him on waivers and the team that claims him can send him to the minors for the next two years as he has two options left..  Martinez is not on the roster.  If we fail to put him on the roster and he is drafted in the Rule 5 then he has to stick in the majors next season or be offered back to the Guardians.    No brainer for me.  If you have to choose between Tena and Martinez on your roster this winter you choose Tena. Let's hope we don't have to choose and that we can trade one of them for a good player who is ML ready.

Xzavion Curry - His start Monday shows he is a 2-pitch guy right now.  Even with that he can and likely SHOULD help this team going forward in the bullpen.  

Hunter Gaddis - Do we all realize that he gave up a grand slam in his first minor league start back after being in Cleveland?  Without that we might have been talking about him in the same breath as Williams at this point.  I still see him as a viable option for the bullpen and maybe the rotation in the future.

Logan T. Allen - Any of you worried about him in his struggles at AAA?  I am, only in that his stuff is not overpowering and there is always the chance that a guy just gets to a level where his stuff is no longer effective (see Eli Morgan below)

Arizona Complex League - Anyone else frustrated that the ACL team appears to have become the DSL #3 team?   Ahh, in the good old days when draftees actually got to play in their first years.  Fox did it last year.   I think only Ventimiglia, the ultimate of ultimate lottery ticket draft picks from last year, is on the roster and his ERA is over 10 and he is walking more than a guy an inning.    Just totally boring and given that stats in this league don't really give any good indication of future sucess, really frustrating as far as getting a picture of future development.   It seems like when we all do our top prospects lists we don't even consider the ACL guys any more as they are treated like the DSL guys, so far away it's impossible to rate them.

More Changs and Logan Allen the elders?

Owen Miller looks just a little better than replacewment level.  Except for the first month or so of this season he looks totally AAAA to me.  Miller has a role now as Naylor's caddy.  However, he is not helping this team now and if we had another guy on the roster who could play 1B effectively, I sense Miller would be at AAA and Arias would be up as the backup infielder right now.

Eli Morgan - Look, this guy has exceeded expectations ever since he was drafted, with no greater evidence of that than his first two months of this season.  That being said, however, his warts that showed up clearly last year as a starting pitcher are now coming back to haunt him as a reliever.  Here is a typical guy who gets sent to the minors to either figure out how to be successful or drift off to become a AAAA player.  

Just like Chang, Logan Allen the elder, Oscar Mercado and others, Miller and Morgan need to help this team right now or be replaced, thus becoming the definition of replacement level talents.   They have both shown too much of a pattern of ineffective play that has extended over at least two seasons.  

Myles Straw - WTF???????

I don't get it.  Guys are not suddenly this bad.  Not very often.  So what is up with him.  He looks like he has given up at the plate, on the bases and even, to some extent, in the OF.  As far as the latter, Straw has, recently, given way to Kwan on a number of occasions when there were 50-50 balls in left-center.   As far as hitting, he looks like he has no physical strength in his swing like he has some kind of hand or arm injury that saps strength and quickness from his swing.  Just looks inept.  Still a Gold Glove caliber CFer but, man, he is worse than Hedges and Maile at the plate, making him the worst hitter in our lineup right now...and not by just a little.

Thoughts for Sunday August 14, 2022

 After I finished watching the Guardians' game today I just sat for a couple of minutes in silence.  I muted the TV and closed my eyes.  The thought that was running through my mind was that this was the way I always hoped it would be for the Guardians: a young, essentially homegrown team led by some somehat, at least, internally grown veteran players, playing baseball the right way. 

Tomorrow brings the first ML appearance for Xzavion Curry.  He'll start game 2 against Detroit.  Now, I think a short righthander like Curry will end up in the bullpen in the majors.  It just makes too much sense with all the other pitching prospects we have as well as the years of control we have over the current pitching staff.  But tomorrow he starts.  Along with that start is the likely promise that the Cleveland organization thinks highly enough of Curry to, for all practical purposes, give him a roster spot this winter.  They are just doing it 3 months early.    

First Gaddis and then Curry, two guys I said should be protected this winter, make their major league debuts.  Guys not currently on the 40-man, guys that didn't HAVE to be on that roster until November.   But they are getting their feet wet.

Now, I don't really think either Gaddis or Curry are finished enough as prospects to be successful in the majors right now.  Hopefully consistent success will come starting on opening day next year.   However, I would rather have them start a game than to see Tanner Tully or Kirk McCarthy start that same game.   Hey, Tully and McCarthy are warriors as, to a large extent, is Konnor Pilkington and Peyton Battenfield.  But the idea of seeing Gaddis and Curry get a few starts in is exciting, just like it would be to see Cody Morris up in the bullpen at some point this season and, maybe, even get a glimpse of Carlos Vargas.

We have already seen guys on the farm come up and be successful.  Now we are having the next wave of guys starting to break out.  Guys like Jonathon Rodriguez, who is having an almost unbelievable second half of the season, and Gabriel Rodriguez, looking every day like the prospect everyone thought he was when he signed.  Plus we have the usual starting pitching prospects from the '19, '20 and '21 drafts who we have heard about all year.

But it's the guys just starting to write their major league story: Kwan, Freeman, Benson, Jones, Gonzalez.  And the next wave, Gaddis, Curry, Morris, Vargas, Arias, Brennan, Valera, Allen, Battenfield, Pilkington, Palacios and Naylor.  And then the wave after that, Bibee, Espino, Williams, Noel, Jonathon Rodriguez, Rocchio, Tena and the rest of the 2021 draft class.   

This is how baseball needs to be in Cleveland.  

I could be totally wrong but it appears to me that the rest of baseball thinks that they can steal our prospects because, well, this is Cleveland and so they can try to rob us in trades.  We just found out how wrong that thought is as we didn't give up those prospects.   There is a way forward in which we don't have to give up any propsects and still protect all the ones who could help our ML team when they come up sometime in the next two years.  Do I think we will let it get that far?  No.  I think there will be trades for the right veteran or two and maybe some prospects will be traded, if we can get good value for them.   

As long as I don't have to hear fans say any more "What do you think we can get for a prospect like that.  You really overvalue our prospects."  I think this year has proved that, no, people who love our prospects don't necessarily overvalue them and YES, fans of other teams do think they can rob us as, well, its Cleveland and they are stupid enough to make a dumb trade.  

So, I hope this is not a dream and if it is, I hope it continues.   Looking at this lineup and pitching staff, how young they are (mostly) and how well they play and how well they are coached and, especially, managed.   That is incredibly fun to watch. 

I am opening my eyes now, looking forward not just to tomorrow but to the joy that this prospect-laden time will give us in the future and the renewed hope that this gives all Cleveland fans that the next waves of prospects speeding towards Cleveland are no just a mirage, they are, truly, the next wave of memory-makers for Guardian fans.

Early Look At The 2023 26- and 40-Man Rosters

 Never too soon to be planning ahead.  I am sure the Guardians brain trust is.  The asterisked players are predicted to be on the opening day, 26-man roster.  The roster below only has 39 players leavng room for one free agent.  It leaves off Rule 5-eligibles such as Angel Martinez, Micah Pries, Alexfri Planez, Aaron Bracho, Nick Mikolajchak, Lenny Torres, Nick Enright, Andrew Misiaszek and others. Note that I have added a few more guys (in parentheses) that will not have to be rostered this winter but could impact the major league team next year.

Starting Pitchers

Triston McKenzie*

Shane Bieber*

Cal Quantrill*

Zach Plesac*

Aaron Civale*

Peyton Battenfield

Hunter Gaddis

Konnor Pilkington

Joey Cantillo

(Logan T. Allen)

(Tanner Burns)

(Danel Espino)

(Tanner Bibee)

Relief Pitchers

Emmanuel Clase*

Trevor Stephan*

James Karinchak*

Sam Hentges*

Cody Morris*

Xzavion Curry*

Nick Sandlin*

Enyel De Los Santos*

Eli Morgan

Carlos Vargas

Catchers

Austin Hedges*

Bo Naylor*

Bryan Lavastida

Infielders

Jose Ramirez*

Andres Gimenez*

Amed Rosario*

Josh Naylor*

Nolan Jones*

Gabriel Arias*

Tyler Freeman*

Jose Tena

Gabriel Rodriguez

Jhonkensy Noel

Brayan Rocchio

Outfielders

Myles Straw*

Steven Kwan*

Oscar Gonzalez*

Will Benson*

Will Brennan

George Valera

Richie Palacios

SUMMARY THOUGHTS

As Antonnetti said recently, this roster is maturing.  Where you want to be as a 40-man roster in Cleveland is to have it young, have your guys not on the roster be able to come up to the majors next year.  With the exception of Noel and Rodriguez, I can see any of these guys impacting the major league team next year with Noel maybe sneaking into the majors on a September callup next year if he can make better contact.  All these guys were/are top-30 prospects, as well.  

New Guardians top 35 prospects

 Here is my current guess at the Guardians top 30 prospects.  Still not including DSL or ACL players on this list but am including our draft class this year.  

1. Daniel Espino - Still hoping to see him pitch this year but realize, if healthy, he could have been at Columbus by now and STILL wouldn't have been eligible for the Rule 5 this winter.  That is one definition of a top prospect, at least to me.

2. George Valera
3. Gavin William
4. Tanner Bibee
5. Bo Naylor
6. Brayan Rocchio
7. Tyler Freeman
8. Gabriel Arias
9.  Logan Allen
10. Nolan Jones
11. Will Benson
12. Jhonkensy Noel
13. Xzavion Curry
14. Cody Morris
15. Hunter Gaddis

16. Joey Cantillo

17. Will Brennan

18. Chase DeLauter
19. Jose Tena

20. Richie Palacios

21. Angel Martinez
22. Milan Tolentino

23. Jake Fox

24. Gabriel Rodriguez

25. Micah Pries

26. Alexfri Planez

27. Petey Halpin

28. Jack Leftwich

29. Jonathon Rodriguez

30. Peyton Battenfield

31. Bryan Lavastida

32. Doug Nikhazy

33. Justin Campbell

34. Carlos Vargas

35. Tanner Burns - Note that Burns was placed this low because his fastball has lost A LOT of zip during this season, sitting recently at 89-91.  Although he is pitching well when not on the IL, much like Battenfield, minor league success does not necessarily project to the majors if you a sub-standard fastball velocity, even if you have an exceptional off-speed pitch and good control (see Eli Morgan's struggles which were alleviated somewhat by the uptick in his fastball velocity to 92-93 mph but even that bump hasn't guaranteed lasting success for Eli).

Mustard = Franmil Reyes ?????????????

 Am I the only one who thought the timing of the spoof about the Guardians sending Mustard to the minors was in very bad taste given that we just DFA'd, and subsequently lost on waivers, Franmil Reyes. 

Any other time it would have been cute but I thought the 'press release' rang a little too true to what the Guardians were saying about Reyes.  

Hey, as I said before, I think there is more to the backstory than what we are hearing.  Franmil could have been sent to Columbus and left there for 1+ seasons at the cost of what his arbitration settlement would have been.  Yes, around $4.5 million is a lot to pay a guy who is ending up at AAA but the Guardians could have always released him next spring if he didn't do what they asked him to do or they could have just non-tendered him this winter.   Unless there was some reason they didn't want him around their AAA prospects.  Bad work ethic?  Bad-mouthing the organizaiton?   Don't know and, well, I really don't know.

But I think someone in the promotions department should probably understand what is going on with the team before they do something like this.   

I imagine, somewhere on the internet, someone else is asking whether the Guardians are saying that they think Franmil Reyes is only worth a container of mustard in trade.

Losing Reyes will obviously come back to bite the Guardians in the butt if he gets his act together, given how much control they still had before he became a free agent.   This charade is only going to rub salt the wound and might make him more determined to show the Guardains what they lost when they let him go.   As someone who has also become a Cardinals fan from living in St. Louis for almost 30 years, I don't really want to help the Cubs get better.

Franmil Reyes vs Gio Urshela vs Yand Diaz - Let the debate begin

 Gio Urshela -

It was May of 2018.  The Indians needed a roster spot and had to DFA Gio Urshela.  Essentially, they needed a roster and had given up on Urshela.   We all knew he was a great defender, maybe Gold Glove level at 3B and that he was an adequate SS.  But he couldn't hit.  He had an OPS for Cleveland of .587.  His war was -0.4.  He showed very little power, didn't walk much nor did he steal bases.  Essentially, he was a defensive replacement, which is what I argued at the time.  If you are going to have a defensive replacement why not have it be Urshela.  Homegrown.  Cheap.   But the Indians decided to let him go.  Not saying I was a fan of the move but only because I saw value in him as a 25th guy of the roster.  So he goes to Toronto and they give up after 3 months.  He goes to the Yankees and plays in the majors in 2019, hitting .314 with 34 doubles and 21 HRs.with an OPS of .889.

WTF?!?!?!?!

The rest is history.   He is a solid defender, clutch hitter and generally well-above average player, all things considered.   

What went wrong?   I don't know but something went wrong and the Indians (and Blue Jays) got nothing from him whereas the hated Yankees turned this toad to a prince with a single kiss.

Yandy Diaz - 

 In December of 2018 in a trade not worth unpacking here, the Indians sent Diaz and Cole Sulser to Tampa and got the infamous (or un-famous) Jake Bauers back.    It was thought we were buying low on Bauers.  Turns out we were selling low on Diaz.

The rap on Diaz was that he couldn't lift the ball.  Lots of exit velocity but most of it lost as he pounded ball after ball into the ground.  At the same time he was a poor defender without any speed who was relegated to play two power-hitting positions, 1B or 3B, or DH.  In 265 ABs with Cleveland he hit ONE homerun.

So he goes to Tampa and what happens?  Suddenly he lifts the ball and slugs .476 his first year.  While that is a wasted resource it stings even more when realizing that Bauers hit almost the same in Cleveland as he hit in Tampa.  Now it wasn't easy for Tampa to get him to lift the ball and, truth be told,  he is back to not hitting HRs (he has only 5 this year).  

Not the worst loss for the Indians in a trade even if you don't include that Bauers came back here and wasted our time for 2 seasons. But still a loss.  This one, the fans called at the time as Bauers was as advertised and Diaz became who the fans thought he could be.

Franmil Reyes -

The Indians/Guardians got Reyes at the deadline in 2019.in another complex trade not worth umpacking here.  He hit HRs from the time he came here, 58 in all, including 30 last year.  The Guardians DFA'd him when his pathetic hitting stretched out over 4 months of this season.  And it wasn't just that his stats eroded from previous years.   He swung repeatedly at pitches a foot off the plate. and would take fastballs right down the middle.  His ABs were so frustrating that I couldn't even watch sometimes and you could tell the frustration in Rick Manning's voice every time Reyes had another pathetic AB.  The advantage here was that, unlike Urshela, we had options remaining on Reyes that would have kept him in the minors this year and next year before we had to DFA him.   Instead, we DFA'd him.  The point was not that we brought up AAAA pitcher Jake Jewell to take his roster spot.  That was an incidental footnote of bringing up AAAA players to burn some innings to save the bullpen then DFAing them when a new player needed to be added to the roster.

The point was that we gave up on Reyes.   As I have said previously there has to be a back story here.    No way that a half season of baseball is enough, in and of itself, to want to erase from La Mole from the collective memory of the Guardians.

Well, as predicted, he landed with a rebuilding club willing to take a flyer on a guy who had 37 and 30 HRs in his only two full seasons in the majors.  A relatively young guy with 2 minor league options left (counting this year).

SUMMARY

So, what have we learned from all this.  The Guardians traded away 3 players and got nothing in return.  Yeah, teams do this all the time.  But the Guardians are in a unique situation.  They can't just buy their way out of a mistake by signing a high-priced free agent.  They have to hit on more trades than they miss on.   They missed on 3 big trades in the last 4 years here, dumping players for nothing, relatively young players at that, players they gave up on, only to have the first two, Urshela and Diaz, come back to bite them with the likelihood that Reyes will do the same.

The Guardians management should be asking themselves why were Urshela and Diaz so quickly developed after they left Cleveland?  Why couldn't they develop these guys who turned out to be above-average ML players.  Why, in my opinion, did they give up on these guys out of what appears to be frustration when they should have found a way to make this work.  

You can't have these kinds of failures when you are in Cleveland.  To paraphrase from a national pizza chain commercial:  EVERY...ASSET...MATTERS.  Here were three assets that were squandered and we are no better for it.

We simply need to do better!!!