Connor Joe? What do you know!

 That didn't take long.

A major league trade where Colorado traded a 30-year old RH hitting OF/1B who hit .238 with 7 HRs in 467 PA in Colorado this year to Pittsburgh for their 3rd round pick, from 2020, RHP Nick Garcia.  

Not that Nick Garcia is going to be a great ML pitcher.  No one is saying that.

But when you compare Owen Miller's stats in Cleveland and project what they would have been in Colorado, you gotta think, with his age and position versatility, that Owen Miller is significantly more valuable than Connor Joe.

And Nick Garcia is significantly more valuable than air!

Post for a Sunday - Things that make you go hmmmmm.

First, anyone else hate the college football commitment process.  I absolutely hate it.  Top prospects commit to colleges early, only to back out later, sometimes as late as national signing day.   How can you rejoice in your college getting a commitment from a 5-star or 4-star two years out and then spend the rest of the time waiting for the guy to de-commit even though he keeps saying on social media how solid his commitment is.  I mean, coaches change, programs go on probation, they sign guys from the portal who play your position.   There are valid reasons to de-commit.  But 'I changed my mind'.  Really?  Then wait until you won't change your mind to make your FIRST commitment.  Geez!

Second, does it really matter what any team does if the Astros keep getting better?   Yes, I know the Guardians got better by signing Bell and, hopefully, better by signing Zunino.   They still have problems in their division as Chicago gets better by signing Clevinger and Benitendi and even better by Anderson getting healthy.  They may not even lose much ground if Vaughan takes off after going to first base full time even though they lost Abreu.  Minnesota got Vazquez and if they backfill with solid ML hitters where they have weaknesses, they are going to give us trouble, as well.  But, still.  Houston gets Abreu to play 1B and gets Brantley back?  I mean, looking at it objectively, Houston was 25 meters ahead of us in a 100 meter dash and this offseason we may have cut 10 meters off that.  They are still 15 meters ahead and if they don't fall on their faces, they are going to win the race easily.

Finally, so far this off-season here is the Guardians' scorecard:

Gained

Josh Bell

Mike Zunino

Ross Carver (#30 prospect in Guardians top 50)

Juan Brito (not listed in MLB Pipeline's top 30 Guardians prospects)

Lost

Owen Miller

Bryan Shaw

Carlos Vargas (#17 in Arizona top 30)

Nolan Jones (#11 in Colorado top 30)

Tanner Tully

Kirk McCarty

Nic Enright (contingent on him staying in the majors)

Kevin Kelly (contingent on him staying in the majors)

Thoughts

We still have almost all of our top 30 prospects still intact.   I hope we sign someone like Brandon Drury and a quality lefty reliever.   

Interesting quote on the Mets: From MLB Trade Rumors, talking about why the Mets are content with a $350+ million payroll and the $100+ million penalty that involves: "...as the Mets want to win but aren't interested in trading from their farm system."  Hmm, where have I heard that one before (hint: from me).  Simplistic?  Yes.  But when billionaires are saying and living it, putting their own money where their mouths are, makes you think, doesn't it?  As I said: You can go to the bank to get more money but you can't go to the bank to get more prospects.  The days of buying the Babe Ruths of baseball for a hefty sum where they are young major leaguers are long gone.  Now you pay the big bucks and get Babe Ruth in his prime.  

Anyone left we should be interested in?

 So, free agency is sort of winding down.  Let's look at the remaining top free agents and see if there is anyone else we could be interested in.

First things first: We saw what happened when we signed our stopgap catcher.  Although he was not a player who was likely to make the 26 man roster this coming season, the loss of someone like Owen Miller for nothing is still, in my opinion, an unwarranted loss.  

So, with that in mind, I think that there are only 3 players on the current roster who are possibilities to be DFA'd if we sign another free agent.  Let me be clear, however.  Loss of any one of these guys for nothing is not appropriate.  

Will Benson

Bryan Lavastida

Richie Palacios

Again, like Nolan Jones, Carlos Vargas and Owen Miller, none of these three guys are likely to be a significant player for this team in 2023, with all being redundant to the future of this team.  Like I said, however, they still have value as players and they are NOT DFA flotsam and jetsam, although some bloggers may try to tell you they are.

So, now that we see that it would be painful to add anyone to our roster, let's look at who is available from the top 50 tier of free agents (according to MLBTR) and see if anyone makes sense.

5. Dansby Swanson -SS- No way this guy makes sense for us.  We have too many SS in waiting already

23. Nathan Eovaldi RHSP- Given that he would likely slot in at #4 in our rotation and what middle tier free agent pitchers are getting and that we have reinforcements at AAA/AA ready to go, I way no way to him, too.

24. Taylor Rogers RHRP - He would only be of interest to me on a 1-year prove it deal for $5 million.  Aside from that I would pass.  We have bullpen guys are the FO has been very adept at shopping in the bargain basement and coming up with real finds (Enyel De Los Santos, for example)

25. JD Martinez - RH DH - A very intriguing guy but with Bell and Naylor, and the latter not REALLY being a RFer BEFORE his injury, I don't see the fit.  Still, if you want a bat and can get him on a prove it deal of $15 million, I might take a shot and do with Naylor what you can do (RF or 1B but not against most lefties.   Again, I vote no on this one but could easily get behind it if it happens.

33. Jurickson Profar - OF - I just don't see him being an upgrade, especially after watching him with San Diego this year.

37.  Brandon Drury - RH 1B, 2B, #B, LF, RF - The most interesting guy on this list to me but his OB skills are not in the Guardians' wheelhouse.  Still, his power and flexibibility on a 1 year, $10 million deal might be worth a look. It is guys like this that, during a long season with the grind and injuries that invariably happen, would be great to have to just plug and play.

39. Andrew Chafin - LHRP - Don't know why he isn't signed and I don't think he is in our price range but signing him to a 1 year deal is helpful to our pen and only raises the pitchers on our 40-man to 20, which is a number I like to see.  Again, it is about money, if we can get him for 1 year at $7 million I kick the tires.

40. Jean Segura - 2B - No fit with this organization but an intriguing guy

41. Michael Wacha - RHSP - What I said before about Eovaldi

43. Michael Brantley - DH - I love this guy but we have no need for his handedness or skillset at this point in his career.  I will kick myself later but if I had to go for a DH I would go for JD Martinez first.

44. Michael Conforto = OF - I just think the teams trying to grab at straws who lost out on other players will drive his price up too high.

45 - Adam Ottavino - RHRP - Always in the market for these veterans but, again, I think his price will be too high.  1 year at $6 million is all I would go for a guy we night not even need but would be great to have.

47. Justin Turner - INF - See the talent but not the need.  With our infield and outfield, he is only an incremental improvement and, even being a veteran hitter, I just don't see a place for him.  Yet, for the right price, I could be convinced.

48. Corey Kluber - RHSP - He could be an innings eater but we don't need that.

50. Drew Rucinski - RHRP - - Right price?  Probably not.  Need - probably not.  Minor league deal.  Absolutely.

Best of the Rest - 

Gary Sanchez - Backup catcher?  Sure, perfect situation as he can hit and he can catch a little bit.

Will Myers - Like Drury, that extra piece that contenders need and that they buy at the trade deadline.  

Trey Mancini -  Amazing he is still available.  Still, I am not convinced that Oscar Gonzalez is going to be a thing going forward.  I hope that he is as his potential is massive.  But, if he tanks, Valera may not be ready and Brennan may not be the correct handedness for what we need for that position.  Again, Mancini is just a veteran hitter.

Any of the rest of Cueto, Fulmer, Kimbrel, Lugo, Moore might have some use if we know a guy is going to the 60 day DL already.

Well, that's it. We could stand pat or spend more money.  It ain't over until its over and it ain't over yet.

Air

 Air is all around us.  It is free.  We can breathe as much as we can and no one charges us for it.  Right now, there is a lot of it (hope that stays that way).  

That's the thing, though.  Air is not really a commodity.  You can't really put a price on it because we need it but it has no value.   

To put this in baseball terms, when I read that a player has been traded for a player to be named later or cash, my mind immediately defaults to him being traded for air.  

Owen Miller was traded for air today.  I am not saying that I think that Owen Miller was going to be on our 26 next spring or that he should remain on our 40 this winter.  Just saying that he was worth more than air.  

Trading Owen Miller for air as the Guardians did today is just a smokescreen to make it look like we didn't DFA him.  That is important because when you look at the players that are DFA'd as this time of the year they are generally 4A players.  Most, if not all of them, do not even have the major league career that Miller has had.

Why am I bringing this up?  Because Cleveland fans tend to underestimate the value of our borderline players.

Tobias Myers (let's just call him AIR Myers) brought Tampa Junior Caminero.  If you thinking there is an air reference here, it's because Myers, in a baseball sense, immediately turned into air, meaning we trade Junior Caminero for air.  

We traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito who is likely going to turn into air down the road.

So when, for the millionth time I hear a Cleveland fan say "He stinks, there is no way we could get anything good for him" I think back on the Junior Caminero (and other) trades.

I am pretty sure that Owen Miller, at this point in his career, is worth more than air.

It is becoming too typically a disappointment that we keep giving players away for something that is free for us all to breath.  And that is not what Miller is worth, despite what the Eeyore-like fans of the Cleveland Guardians might try to tell you.  If Tobias Myers got Tampa Junor Caminero, if Juan Brito got Colorado Nolan Jones, Owen Miller should have brought back more than air.

The FO needs to do better with our assets.  They can't just throw them away for nothing and the better ones need to get back quality, equal value or better.   Otherwise, in a year or two we won't be able to maintain the talent level on this team.    Owen Miller isn't the problem, he is just a symptom of the problem with the FO.   They simply can't turn prospects into value...they only turn them into air.

Post for a Wednesday: window dressing? Same product, different price. Why not William Contreras? Houston, we have a lineup issue.

 Wow, the free agent market is crazy both in dollars and length of contracts.  Imagine Carlos Correa playing at 41 years old for over 20 million?!?  Well, maybe with his current guaranteed contract he might decide he can actually take a lead off of first base and steal a base.    So let's dig into our Wednesday and see where it takes us.

WINDOW DRESSING

The Guardians signed Mike Zunnino to a $6 million, one year deal.  I question this as Austin Hedges was going to get about $4 million in free agency.  The question is why would the Guards pay $6 million to a guy who doesn't know our pitching staff, who is coming off of surgery, who is a career .200 hitter without plate discipline who doesn't bunt?  You know what they say about putting lipstick on a pig, right?  I don't see this as an upgrade or even a lateral move.  Unless the Guardians are pretty sure Hedges is going to have ongoing concussion problems, I don't get this.   I get the one-year deal, just not the player getting that deal.  Can the Guardians really be desperate enough that they are buying a lottery ticket (Zuninno returing to his 2021 form and being able to be as effective with a pitching staff he doesn't know as Hedges, who has worked these guys for years, would be).  Just because the guy hit a lot of HRs in a recent year?  Seems like a PR move, a desperation move after getting beaten out of Sean Murphy.  And speaking of Sean Murphy...

SAME PRODUCT, DIFFERENT PRICE

I have seen a number of sites that rated the Sean Murphy trade.  The A's have gotten anywhere from a "C" to an "F" in this deal.   I previously posted the package I thought was equivalent to what the Braves gave up:

Tanner Bibee

Tanner Burns

Richie Palacios

Konnor Pilkington or Peyton Battenfield

Yet, Andre Knott is saying the package the A's wanted from us started with Daniel Espino.   I don't know what 'source' Knott was getting his information but this seems like corporate BS to me, just like 'We made and offer to Jose Abreu'.    Could the A's really ask for Espino and others from the Guardians and settle with the lower quality package they got from Atlanta/Milwaukee.  If we were in constant communication with Oakland up until the deal was made I can't believe that the above package wouldn't have sealed the deal.  I mean, the best prospect the A's got back was Kyle Muller, who wasn't even close to being a top 10 prospect in baseball whereas Espino was like 15th or so.   

If Knott is correct (personally, I think he was played in this case) what does that say about what other GMs think of the intelligence of our front office that they would think we would just give away prospects?  Well, I guess Oakland could have used recent evidence (Tobias Myers, Nolan Jones, Carlos Vargas) as evidence that we don't value prospects.  

But, in the end, if Oakland was thinking we were that desperate, it didn't work.  But this  trade does bring up one queston...

WHY NOT WILLIAM CONTRERAS?

In the grades of the Murphy trade everyone is saying the 3rd, facilitating party, Milwaukee, was the big winner in this trade.  They got a young catcher who can hit but is questionable behind the plate AND two relievers who are ML ready for their #8 prospect whose big resume' point is he stole 88 bases this year in the minors.   Now Contreras may eventually wind up as a DH but he is a catcher who has caught in the majors.   If you want a stopgap until Bo Naylor is ready AND you want to ncrease your offense and you want a young player who can help you at different positions in the future, Contreras seems like a good fit to me, especially when Sandy Alomar could have worked with him.  Looking at what the Brewers gave up, I would think that Richie Palacios or Will Brennan would have gotten the job done.   It would be nice to ask Antonnetti what the inner workings of this deal were and why the Guardians did not jump in once they know the Braves were willing to trade catching.  This is something that I hope doesn't haunt them this season but I can't believe $6 million for Zuninno was better than a prospect for Contreras and a couple of relief pitchers.  

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A LINEUP PROBLEM

Changing gears, I want to talk about an elephant in the room that no one else seems to have mentioned.  

Last year the Guardians team leader in grounding into double plays was Amed Rosario.   Then the Guardians signed Josh Bell.  He grounded into 22 double plays, most of that in Washington where he was actually hitting the ball.  This mirrored 2021 where he also grounded into 22.   

Projections for this year have Rosario returning to the #2 hole and Bell hitting 4th.  To me this is totally unreasonable.  How can you have 2 double play machines at the top of the order for a team that doesn't hit a lot of HRs and plays station-to-station baseball?  It just doesn't work.  By signing Bell I think Francona is almost forced, statistically speaking, to change his order to the following"

Kwan

Gimenez

Ramirez

Gonzalez

Bell

Naylor

Rosario

Straw

Zuninno

Gonzalez doesn't walk much so it is less likely a double play would be in order when Bell came to bat.  Ditto for Rosario hitting 7th.  Less likely someone will be on base.   Will the elimination of the uber-shift help Bell and Rosario?  Maybe with Bell but I doubt it with Rosario.  However, I will leave that to the analytics people to make that call.  Considering this at face value, however, no way do Bell and Rosario hit at the top of the order sandwiching Ramirez.  That, on paper, would kill Ramirez's year and might totally negate the advantages gained by replacing Miller with Bell.

Just sayin'

Sean Murphy Trade - What Does It Mean and What Is Next

 So, Mr. Murphy is finally traded...to Atlanta.

The kneejerk thoughts by people who blog for teams who wanted but did not get Murphy is generally: Could my team have payed that much or more to get Murphy.

To make it more complicated this became a 3 team deal, including Milwaukee.  However, for purposes of this deal let's assume that Milwaukee traded Contrares for Esteury Ruiz and Justin Yaeger first and that any other players that went to Milwaukee are assumed to have gone to the other two teams, Atlanta and Oakland.

Using this oversimplification, here is what the trade looked like:

Oakland traded:

Sean Murphy C and Joel Payamps RHRP

Atlanta traded

Manny Pina C, Freddy Tarnok (RHP, #6 Braves prospect), Esteury Ruiz (OF, #8 Milwaukke prospect), Kyle Muller (RHP, #1 Atlanta prospect) and Royber Salinas (RHP, #18 Braves prospect)

Unpacking this as it relates to Cleveland:

Pina is a veteran backup catcher.  Sort of a fill-in to help the A's stud young catcher Shea Langeliers (also a former Braves prospect) break in. 

Muller is the Braves #1 prospect.  That being said, he did not even make the MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects, showing how weak the Braves' farm system is.

Tarnok, with that in mind, is the Braves' #6 prospect and Salinas was their #18 prospect

Ruiz was the #8 prospect for the Brewers.

So, in summary, none of these guys were top 100 prospects in baseball.   To put this in perspective, the Guardians would have had to likely give up:

Tammer Bibee

Tanner Burns

Richie Palacios

Konnor Pilkington or Peyton Battenfield

I would have made that deal.  Bibee is a lot to lose but Burns isn't throwing hard, Palacios is good but has no place on this roster and either Pilkington or Battenfield are useable but not needed in Cleveland and, in and of themselves, has little trade value.

Now some may scoff at the package I proposed being equivalent to what Oakland got back but I think these two groups of players are VERY similar.

So, there you have it.  We lost out on Murphy.   It is really possible that the A's tried to gouge the Guardians and the package they proposed was much stronger than the package they got from Atlanta.   We will never know because we won't know what was asked or offered.  

Still, I think looking at what the A's got back for Murphy and Payamps, the Guardians could have easily matched that without significantly damaging their farm system.

Just one guy's opinion.  

So, now, where do we go from here?  Christian Vazquez?  Danny Jansen?  Bargain basement shopping or trading?  Who knows.

But we still need more offense out of catcher, a lefty bullpen arm, and maybe a better right handed right field power bat than Gonzalez.  Also, Carlos Rodon, if we are really going for it, would look good in a Guardians' uniform.   

Post for a Friday: Carlos Rodon.....A Man Can Dream, Can't He?

 Pipedream of the year thought: Carlos Rodon makes perfect sense for the Guardians.

6 years, $175 million.  

Look, we could use another #1 starter for two reasons: 

(1) Help us win games this year

(2) Give us some breathing room in making a decision about extending Shane Bieber.  

Hey, there is no way the Guardians commit this much to Rodon or any major league player.  It just isn't cost effective for this market.

But, still.   We have a deep farm system that can provide us cheap, by baseball salary standards, players for years to come.  So roster churn can help keep the team payroll down.  

The concept of 2 players (Ramirez and Rodon) eating a lot of your team salary actually works in the ultimate unusual situation the Guardians are in: an overflow of prospects.

Plus, it makes the decision on Rosario's free agency easy.  we go young at SS/2B.   

A Rodon signing might even signal an immediate trade of Rosario, which wouldn't really be that bad of a thing if Gimenez has his head on straight and just one of our young middle infielders can step up right now.

This will never happen in Cleveland, right?  A man can still dream.