2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 19 -- Mock Draft 3.0 - Day 2 Picks

 Ok, we've completed day 1 and there were plenty of surprises.

Considering those surprises, it's time to look at what the Guardians might do with their 17 picks today in rounds 4-20.   For rounds 4-10 I will employ the same strategy that I did for Day 1, just listing a number of guys as if they were the ones on my big board at that slot.  I have modified this list last night after seeing who was left after Round 3 Then I will give you a list, in order, of the guys I am looking at for round 11-20.  I will create another post after round 10 on Day 2 where I give the guys I would consider in round 11 as well as an updated list, in order, of the guys I am now looking at in rounds 11-20 in a more big board style.

So let's dive in.

#132

1. Matt Barr RHP Niagara CC

2. Gavin Turley RF Oregon State

3.  James Quinn-Irons CF George Mason

4. Sam Horn, RHP Missouri

5. Caden Hunter, RHP, USC

6. Zane Taylor, RHP, UNC Wilmington

Summary - I treat the first pick on the second day like the first pick overall.  We have some holdovers from my big board on Day 1 so I would go with Barr or Turley first.  After that, I would want to get value and the value I am looking for is a power hitter who should make the ML before Ramirez's contract is up.  OK, since my Mock 2.0, I have fallen in love with Quinn-Irons who is an analytics darling. He is a power over hit guy who can play CF and steal you a base. However, I think he will be gone by our 4th round pick.  If he is gone I revert to the hope that Ethan Frey is available and if both aren't there I revert to my original goal of drafting a solid college, RHP.  If the pitchers I covet all the way down to Hunter are gone I revert back to the combine darling, senior Zane Taylor.  At that point I am trying to save money 

#162

1. Ben Abeldt, LHP, TCU (injured, elbow)

2. Michael Salina, RHP, St. Bonaventure (injured, elbow)

3. Jared Spencer, LHP, Texas (injured, shoulder)

4. Zane Taylor, RHP, UNC Wilmington

Summary - This is where I pick up an injured college pitcher if I can.  Abeldt is the target with his solid stuff but Salina threw 102 mph before he was hurt and Spencer is just a solid guy who is a senior sign.  Taylor, who you will see again in the 6th round below, is my backup plan if none of these guys are there and Bowker is my safety net as I want a college pitcher here. The goal is to sign one of these guys for an underslot bonus (Taylor is a senior) and use the leftover money for a later draft pick.

#192

1. Zane Taylor, RHP, UNC Wilmington

2. Mike Salina RHP, St. Bonaventure

3. Jack Anker, RHP - Fresno State

4. Jared Spencer LHP, Texas

5. Antonio Jean, LHP, Houston

Summary - I would like a college pitcher who is, if possible good AND a senior sign here. I don't know if Taylor will be available due to the FB he showed at the combine but I think Antonio Jean will be there. Jack Anker is a vanilla fallback position and if none of those guys are present I focus on another power college bat as this draft, for me, in the first 10 rounds, is supposed to be all about college power hitters and college pitchers.

#222

1. Pierce Coppola, LHP, Florida

2. Antonio Jean, LHP, Houston

3. Jared Spencer LHP, Texas

4. Sawyer Hawks LHP Vanderbilt

5. Jared Jones 1B LSU

Summary - Coppola is who I want here.  Oft-injured, he still struck out 43 batters in 21 innings in the SEC this year but will probably only be considered a cheap senior sign who will be downgraded due to his injury history, whereas I think he can be a lot more. For those of you who remember, I wanted him last year and I plan to pop him this year if he is here in 7th round. High risk, high reward guy, very similar to Franco Aleman, who also attended Florida. If Coppola is not here I am pretty sure Jean will be.  Hawks is an under-the-radar guy I like here as I think he fits into the Cleveland pitching development program nicely.  If all of these guys are snapped up, which I doubt, I can always revert back to my power hitter draft and jump on Jones, who will defintely hit HRs in the pros.

#252

1. Jared Jones 1B LSU

2. Henry Allen, IF, NW Florida JC

3. Jacob Walsh, 1B, Oregon

4. Anthony DePino, 3B, Rhode Island

Summary - If Jones doesn't fall to this spot, I am ooking for an under-the-radar college power bat here and Allen has been on my radar for months.  Mid-major guys like DePino and under the radar sluggers like Walsh (80-grade power) also intrigue me as a late Day 2 pick, especially since 8th round guys, if drafted appropriate to their overall talent within a class, tend to not advance even to AAA.  You have to have a niche and power is nice niche, and one the Guardians need plenty of.

#282

1. Rory Fox, RHP, Notre Dame

2. Ethan Young RHP East Carolina

3. Matthew Matthijs, RHP, North Carolina (injured)

4. Evan Chrest, RHP, Florida State (injured)

5. Ryan DeSanto, RHP, Penn St.

6. Aaron Savary, RHP, Iowa

Summary - Here I am looking for a college pitcher who has dropped due to injury (Matthijs, Chrest), or some other issues or a college pitcher who I think I can save money on who has some upside that can be tapped into by the Guardians pitcher development program (Fox, Young Dallas, DeSanto and Savary as future setup men). 

#312

1. Marcelo Harsch, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (NJ)

2. Trey Morris, LHP, Washington Union HS (CA)

3. Alan Solar, L HP, True North HS (FL) (injured TJ surgery)

4. Cameron Millar, RHP, Alhambra HS (CA)

Summary - As I said previously, whoever I pick here will be a HS pitcher who has fallen in the draft.  Like in 2024, this spot is like Mobley last year where they know they could sign him for a certain dollar figure and saved money to do that.

Rounds 11-20 - Presented in big board style

As I said above, here is a list, in relative, though not absolute order, of the guys I would look to pick in the last 10 rounds.  I will create a separate post after round 10 to include other guys I want to add to this list before we start with Round 11.

1. Jacob Walsh 1B Oregon

3. Trent Grindlinger C HS

4; Ryan De Santo RHP Penn St.

5. Kade Snell 1B Alabama (Sr.)

6. Boston Smith C Wright St. (Sr.) - Love this guy.

7. Hunter Allen RHP Ashland

8. John Bay CF Austin Peay - Love this guy

9. Jack Mitrovich RHP Elon - Love this guy

10. Trace Phillips RHP Middle Tennessee St.

11. Blake Gillespie RHP UNC Charlotte

13. Matt Dallas LHP Wake Forest

14. Aaron Savary RHP Iowa

15. Callan Fang RHP Harvard

16. Judd Utemark 2B/3B Mississippi

17. Tyler Fay RHP Alabama

18. Caleb Leys LHP Maine

19. Kolten Smith RHP Georgia

20. Jack Martinez RHP Arizona St. 

21.  Eddie Madrigal IB/RF/C/2B/3B St. Mary's CA

22. Riley Kelly RHP UC Irvine

23. Tanner Thach 1B UND WIlmington

24. Ty Harvey C HS

25. Jack McCutcheon 2B/OF Missouri St.

26. Aaron Haugh (Sr.) RHP UNC

27. Dylan Brown LHP Old Dominion

28. Lucas Steele 1B/OF Auburn

29. Eli Jerzembeck RHP South Carolina

30. Dominic Fritton LHP NC State

31. Cameron Keshock RHP Samford

32. Harrison Bodendorf LHP Oklahoma St.

33. Davion Hickson RHP Rice

34. Landon Hodges C HS

35. Peter Mershon C HS

36. Hunter Elliot, LHP Mississippi

37. Cal Scolari, RHP San Diego

38. Max Klein C, Louisville

39. Brent Iredale 3B Arkansas

40. Ryan Prager LHP Texas A&M

41. Drew Faurot SS - Florida State

42. Cade Crossland LHP, Oklahoma St.

43. Lucas Kelly RHP Arizona St.

46. Dylan Vigue RHP Michigan

47. Brandon Arvidson LHP Tennessee

48, Kyle McCoy LHP Maryland

49. Jacob Johnson RHP Pearl River CC

2025 Draft: Day 1 Live Blog

7:30 PM ET

So, we are underway.  I wanted to wait until halfway through the first round before I started this live blog.

• Tyler Bremner was the big surpirse so far.  I love this guy.  He is as much like Shane Bieber as I can imagine.  I hope the Angels have a great pitching development program because that would make this guy a multi-time all-star, IMO
• Ethan Conrad at #17 was a surprise.  As I have said before, I wouldn't have picked him at #27 so I can't believe, with the uncertainty of his shoulder surgery, that a team this early would take that gamble.  It IS very much like DeLauter and, as we can tell now, that can be a real issue, no matter how talented the player is.
• The Brewers selected my first overall pick projection, Andrew Fischer at #20. That hurts for me.  
• Right now (after pick 20) we have #16, 17/19, 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 and 29.  still left on the board. 

8:00 ET

• So, we are up to pick #22 and we have the first overdraft.  ESPN has been pushing Tate Southisene to us at #27 but the Braves selected the #39 prospect at their slot. So, on my board, the Guardians would go after Laviolette, Neville or Taylor but, with my model, as Gage Wood is dropping, they could pop a college pitcher, as well.  Again, I hope they stay away from HS guys or college hit-over-power guys.  
• The Tigers just selected Jordan Yost at #24. ESPN had us picking at #70.  Phew.  We may had dodged a bullet there as this is the first big overdraft

8:15 ET

• Well, we are up to Guardians first pick at #27.  The top ranked guys who are left include LaViolette, Neville,Taylor  and Forbes from my board.  It scares me a little bit that there are 2 HS guys (de Brun and Hammond) who have been projected to go to the Guardians.  A hit-over-power college OFer (Summerhill), a college SS (Aloy), two college catchers (Bodine and Stevenson) are also available.  
• Harold Reynolds talks about the Phillies having a window. The Guardians have a window, too.

8:20 PM

• OK, the pick is in and the Guardians select Jace LaViolette.  He was #2 on my big board at this spot.  He has 65 grade power and can play CF.  I think Mason Neville was very similar to LaViolette.  Thus, this makes it an upside pick.  There is more risk than with Neville but the reward, if he makes his ceiling.  So color me happy...but also color me standing with my fingers crossed.  One thing this means is that we need to get better hitting coaches all through the organization.

9:00 ET

• The draft is proceeding slowly (as it will for a team that has no picks between 27 and 64,  Guys are going off the board/ It's interesting that Taylor, Neville and Belyeu on the board.  Oops, Taylor just went off the board to the A's.
• AJ Russell, my pick at #64, is gone to Texas at #52.  Big FB.  This is why I wish they allowed draft pick trading...and Ted Stepien was the owner of every ML team except Cleveland.

10:30 ET

• Sorry, if anyone is out there reading this, I had to do a couple of things so I am playing catchup.   Let's talk about the Guardians' picks
• #64 - Dean Curley SS - Tennessee - A number of college pitchers on my big board went right before our pick at #64. Maybe this had to do with them taking a college SS.  Curley has shown power-over-hit capability.  I have to ask why we didn't take Mason Neville, Gavin Turley or Mark Belyeu.  I thought it was probably because they took a college OFer in the first round and were looking for another college position player who was hit-over-power.   That was until their pick at #66 where they took...
• #66 - Aaron Walton OF Arizona.  who was their first overdraft.  At this point I realized that both Curley and Walton were right-handed batters so it is extremely possible that they overdrafted Walton to give them another right-handed power-over-hit bat.  I still don't buy this philosophy as you had to pass on a 65/70 power RFer (Turley), a 65 power CFer (Neville), a 60 power CF (Belyeu) to  take Walton, whose power is only 50 with a 45 hit tool.
• #70 - Will Hynes RHP HS - Again, Hynes was a significant overdraft but he is from Canada, as are a number of other pitchers in our organization.    I don't necessarily like this pick It's a little scary that the Guardians saw him in April in Arizona when he pitched for the Canadian Premier team against professional extended spring training participants.  I hope they were on him before that but the level of overdraft makes me wonder how many looks they really had at him before the draft.
• #101 - Nolan Schubart, OF Oklahoma St. - I expected them to go for junior college pitcher Matt Barr here as Barr had made quite the buzz at the combine after being the best JUCO prospect all season.  Taitn Gray (already selected) was my backup plan if Barr was gone but right behind him was Schubart, who was a late riser in the draft.  He is a 60 power guy, taking a little sting out of not taking Neville (highest available prospect left starting day 2) but all Schubart's other tools scream DH.  I would have rather had Neville (#35 ranked prospect) but obviously something is going on with him.  

Immediate Thoughts and Thoughts About Monday

•   The Guardians, as I requested, prioritized college power hitting with 3 of their top 4 picks.  The way it stands right now, if Laviolette pans out, this could be an above average draft.   If he doesn't, all the other picks so far are blah picks and we may be looking at low ceiling prospects only.  
• That gap between #27 and #64 was really pretty damaging to the Guardians as most of the solid-to-above average college pitchers have been selected.  
• What's up for Monday?
• Round 4 will be interesting.  Three of my favorite guys, Neville, Turley and Barr are still on the board.  Unfortunately we will be picking 29th, which might mean we have to overdraft a mediocre college player or pick a difficult to sign HS player as 8 of the top 9 prospects left are all HS kids.
• Rounds 5-10 would also be problematic if I hadn't already planned to take guys who might fall under the radar.  
• A path still exists where we can get Barr, Turley or Neville in the 4th round and any of them would be fine with me, especially Barr. I don't want any more HS kids in the top 10 rounds and we can do that, if luck falls our way.

More will come a little later tonight when I post my Day 2 big boards for each of rounds 4-10 and also a big board list for rounds 11-20.  After we complete 10 rounds I will redo the final big board list to incorporate guys who I think are signable but who have not been drafted yet.  

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 17 - It's Draft Day - An Open Letter To The Guardians Draft Room

Dear Cleveland Guardians Draft Room,

Look, the Guardians draft room has been innovative in a good way (2021 college pitcher draft) and a bad way (2023 college LH slap hitter draft).  We have had to endure Brady Aiken and Carson Tucker.  We have seen what happens when guy get in right, too, with Francisco Lindor.  

Some of their good, solid draft picks haven't panned out due to injuries (Daniel Espino and Justin Campbell and, up to this point Chase DeLauter). Some sure things are looking questionable (Bazzana)..  But some of those picks are part of our core of players. 

The reason I am writing to you today is because of some disturbing things I have heard from 'experts'

•  MLB Pipeline, in their last mock draft, has the Guardians taking one of two players
• Josh Hammond - HS SS/3B who was thought more highly as a P entering his senior year but who wants to be drafted as a position player.  
• Marek Houston - SS - Wake Forest - A defense-first, slap hitter college shortstop
• ESPN has you guys taking the following guys with your first 4 picks:
• Tate Southisene HS SS - who would be an overdraft by all the scouting services I have seen
• Jordan Yost HS SS -  slap hitter
• Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa - He is on the shorter side
• Aiden Stillman HS LHP - Another overdraft
• Covering the Corner has you drafting Ethan Conrad, a college outfielder who missed most of his 2025 season after undergoing shoulder surgery to fix a separated shoulder he had in March.

My request to you is to NOT do any of the above.  In doing this I ask you to remember the following things:

• The most difficult demographics in terms of draft successes are high school hitters and pitchers.  Look at your recent history
• Cole Tucker, Jake Fox and even Ralphy Velasquez and Petey Halpin from your recent drafts are struggling and either won't make it or will be long-term projects.
• We recently have drafted a half dozen HS pitchers who are at the bottom of our development system.   Many (Oakie, Mobley, Zinn, Remily) are struggling early in their careers, some are still in low A (Doughty, Zibin) and some are injured (Espino, Sullivan) are injured.  

In summary, we haven't had much luck with HS guys as either they fail, they struggle or they have are obviously on a slow development path.  In addition, we have so many SS in our system that I don't think we need any more young or light hitting SS.  As far as Conrad, while DeLauter looks good as a prospect, look how his development has been slowed by an injury.

So, here is my request to you.  Your ML core players will almost all be free agents or close to free agents after the 2028 season.  Base your draft on acquiring players who can make impact on your ML team by 2027 or 2028.  This means drafting healthy college hitters, especially at positions of need, and college pitchers, at least through round 9. 

This is not the time to build for the distant future.  It is not the time to think that Travis Bazzana is not developing at the pace you hoped he would.  

This is the time to bank on your ML core and the prospects (DeLauter, Aubry, Messick, Ingle, Genao, Nikhazy, Aleman, Walters) who are close to the majors.  

So, when you are drafting, look for college power hitters and college power arms through round 9, at least.  After that you can get creative.

If you try to do have a great draft by taking a bunch of brass ring picks, your ML team isn't helped in the near future and the distant future, based on the riskiness of drafting HS kids, becomes really murky.  

So, please.  Do this right.  We want to root for a winning team for years to come and this draft is key to the short and intermediate future of this franchise.  Please make sure you are doing what is the best thing for the franchise.  And, in this case, it is drafting college power hitters at positions of need and good college pitchers, especially power arms who are on the taller side.

Thank you,

Dennis Nosco

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 18 - Mock Draft 3.0 - Day 1 Picks

First, a mea culpa.  I was under the impression that the draft was still a 3 day event. 1-2 on July 13, 3-10 on July 14 and 11-20 on July 15. 

Turns out that I was confused.  So July 13th is rounds 1-3 and July 14th is rounds 4-20.  That adds extra pressure on teams and caused me to redo this post and the next one.  

So, here goes my Mock 3.0, Rounds 1-3.

So, the night before Day 1 of the draft is here.  Lots of movement on rankings in the last few days which is not surprising as writers get more information and hear more rumors right before the draft, especially on guys who are moving in and out of the back end of the first round and the second round.

That being said, there is always some flux in each round based on guys being selected earlier than expected and guys, mostly HS players, falling as teams get skittish about signability and about the dangers of drafting HS players.

So, what I decided to do is to do this as if I had a big board for the draft and would just draft the highest player left on my board.  Obviously, some of this is guesswork but I will post this tonight and, during day 1, I will have a blog post detailing who has been picked and what this did to my big board.

The biggest watchout on Day 1: If teams snap up college pitchers and outfielders and leave the HS hitters, pitchers and college infielders lite on power potential, the first day could get really ugly for Guardians in a lot of ways, especially on being able to acquire talent that would make the majors before Jose Ramirez's current contract expires. 

And that is the big thing for me on the first 2 days of the draft: acquire college talent that will move quickly and be available for the 2028 season, if not 2027 (assuming there is no work stoppage).  So, there, in a nutshell, is my draft strategy for days 1 and 2.

So, let's get started with my Day 1 draft board.

Slot #27

1. Tyler Bremner RHP - UC Santa Barbara

2.  Jace Laviolette OF - Texas A&M

3. Andrew Fischer 1B/3B/OF - Oklahoma

4. Mason Neville CF - Oregon

5. Devin Taylor - LF - Indiana

6. Max Belyeu OF - Texas

7. Ethan Conrad - OF - Wake Forest

8. Patrick Forbes - RHP - Louisville

Rationale - My goal with this pick is to pick a college power hitter who will be a contributor before Ramirez's contract expires in 2028 (maybe Kwan's, too, if we extend him a QO) and before all of our young pitchers reach free agency/  Of course, if a plum like Bremner drops in my lap, I have to pick him, as he reminds me so much of Shane Beiber. Aside from that, this pick will be reserved for a good college power hitter.  Early in the year it appeared that Laviolette might slide to this slot due to poor early performance by these two players.  Now it looks less likely.  Andrew Fischer has been my pick for this slot since my Mock 1.0.  He has the best combination of power and hit tool for a college player who will be left at this point of the draft.  If he is gone Mason Neville would be a good fallback position as he has plus power and the, likely, the ability to stay in CF.  I don't believe Devin Taylor will still be there but, due to his poor defense and arm, I put him below Neville.  More appealing is Max Belyeu who has less power than Neville but a stronger arm. If I had to choose between Conrad and Forbes that would be a hard pick as Conrad doesn't have th power I want and Forbes doesn't have the command.  Originally I looked at Caden Bodine if Fischer was not available but his scout grades did not match his limited production this year and his tools are similar to Ingle so I have eliminated him from consideration.  In any case, there are a lot of guys to pick from here who are all very similar in tools.  For me, it is between Fischer and Neville and I can make a case for each.

Slot #64 

1. AJ Russell RHP - Tennessee

2. Joseph Dzierwa LHP Michigan State

3. Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee

4. Casey Shores RHP  LSU

5. Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa

6. Michael Lombardi RHP Tulane

Rationale -  Obviously this can change depending on any surprises between our picks at #27 and #64. But, assuming that everything goes pretty much as it is laid out in rankings & with our pick at #27, I am clearly looking for a college pitcher here. To help with the chances of getting Russell I have flipflopped him and Dzierwa.  In reality, Russell, and his potentially 80 grade fastball, could be gone before this slot and there is only one team picking between our #64 and #66 picks so it is more a ceremonial honor than anything real.  Dzierwa is the type of guy the Guardians like, with 55 control, a great changeup and what looks like the ability to add more mph to his fastball.  Think Parker Messick but with a slightly better fastball at the time he is drafted.   If Dzierwa and Russel are gone then we go down the list although I think Phillips and Obermueller will be gone before this pick and Obermueller is the dreaded short pitcher.

Slot #66

1. Joseph Dzierwa LHP Michigan St.

2. Marcus Phillips RHP Tennesse

3. Michael Lombardi RHP Tulane

4. James Ellwanger RHP Dallas Baptist

5. Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa

Rationale - Lots of pressure on my draft strategy to take a college power hitter here but, instead, I am looking for another college pitcher. As most of the remaining very talented college power hitters left will be 1B/DH types, I went college pitcher. Dzierwa has polish and Phillips, Lombari and Ellwanger have warts on their control and Obermueller is a short college pitcher.  Stll, from this group, I would get a good college pitcher who will not be that far away from the major leagues...compared to a HS player available at this slot who would, even if they DO make the majors, would do so after Jose's current contract expires.

Slot #70

1. Gavin Turley OF Oregon State

2. James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason

3. Ethan Petry OF/1B South Carolina

4. Jared Jones 1B LSU

5. Taitn Gray C/OF HS

6. Herny Ford OF/1B Virginia

Rationale - Turley has maybe the best power in the draft left at this point.  He is also versatile in the OF, probably like Nolan Jones.  Petry and Jones are power only guys but I am looking for power.  Quinn-Irons is a late riser who wasn't in the  top 150 draft prospects until the combine and now is predicted to go as high as 75.  I still want Quinn-Irons as he he can play center, steal a base and has 55/60 grade power. Gray has the best HS power in the draft and if I can't get any of the three above him, Gray, who will take longer to develop and comes with a higher risk as a HS hitter, will be too good to pass up.  Henry Ford, a little too much hit over power, will be my fallback position as I think he should be available and maybe can regain his lift with some pro coaching.

#101

1. Matt Barr, RHP - Niagara CC

2. James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason

2. Nolan Schubart OF Oklahoma State

3. Taitn Gray C/OF HS

4. Sean Youngerman - RHP - Oklahoma State

5. Jared Jones - 1B - LSU

Rationale - Barr's stock was good but took a real jump up with his spin rate at the draft combine.  He should probably be there at 101 and as I said in my Mock 2.0, I want this guy. He may be a real bust and this is very unlike the Guardians to draft a JUCO guy this high but it's not like he is a nobody, having been on draft boards all spring.  If I don't get Barr then I revert back to my original plan of getting college power bats, taking fast risers James Quinn-Irons or Nolan Schubart.  If someone takes an early flyer on Schubart and Quinn-Irons and Gray is not available, than I revert back to my 'safe' pick from Mock 1.0, Youngerman who is a classic Guardians' pitching prospect, having excellent control.  Taking Youngerman here means that I will want to have a significant high risk/high reward pitcher later. If I get Barr then I want some safe picks later. Taking Schubart means that I likely will be all college pitchers through at least round 9.  

So, more tomorrow after I digest what happened today and have a chance to look at who is still left after the dust from today settles, I'll provide my Day 2 mock in the same format as I used above for Day 1 picks.

. 

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 16 - The Night Before The Day Before The First Night of The Draft - Final Thoughts

 OK, it's Friday.  The draft starts in 2 days.  Lots of rumors and movement all through draft.

So here are my random thoughts as we get ready for the chaos of the draft.

• Nothing has changed from my initial thoughts.  My priorities in this draft are:
• College power hitters
• College power pitchers
• High school catchers (2 in rounds 11-20)
• Injured college pitchers
• High school pitcher flyers in rounds 10-20 (2 total)
• College relievers
• The premise behind the above is that the major driving force behind the picks for this draft is that we do things only to make the ML team stronger between now and 2018 where we will have a big inflection point in this organization as Dolan sells, Ramirez and Clase contracts expire (maybe Kwan's, too) and a lot of our young pitchers will be approaching free agency.  We need to do whatever we can to win now and through 2028.
• In rounds 1-10 we should not be drafting a single HS player,  except in Round 10 where we could draft a HS pitcher flyer if we have gotten the players we wanted in rounds 1-9.  ESPN, in their last mock, had us drafting HS players on 3 of their first 4 picks with the only college player being Cade Obermueller at #70.  Scary and, IMO, detrimental to this organization if it were to happen.
• Remind yourself of the following about the Guardians
• They are really good at the last 10 rounds of the draft
• They, have, in recent years, done strange things (2021 college pitcher draft, 2023 slap hitter draft)
• Finally, and this is the toughest one, keep repeating "Teams lke who they like". Once a pick is made the horse is out of that barn and, as fans, even fans who follow the draft closely, we have to just move in.  The more you know, the more frustrated you can feel.  So just assume everything is going to work out
• A new wrinkle has sprung up in the draft this year that might impact the Guardians.
• Josh Naylor is supposedly being shopped by the Diamondbacks at the deadline, likely for a prospect who may very well be better than anyone we would get using the draft pick we got in this trade.
• Bryan Baker, a mediocre reliever, was just traded by Baltimore for the #37 pick in the draft, setting a very low price for the value of these competitive balance picks.  Remember, Naylor got Cleveland Slade Cecconi and the #66 pick in the draft.
• So, the Guardians, anticipating that Naylor might bring a great prospect back in a trade, might try to hit a HR with the #66 pick and risk striking out big, If this happens it will throw salt in the wound of a trade I didn't think Cleveland got enough from. I worry the Guardians might double down on the issues with this trade.  I just hope they put all that out of their mind and draft a good, solid prospect with that pick and avoid some brass ring grab of selecting a high risk guy.
• Andrew Fischer, my pick in my Mock 1 and 2 drafts is getting some helium and may be gone before the Guardians draft at #27.  As you will see when I do my mock 3.0 draft, there are plenty of good players in the first 5 rounds of the draft who will likely be available at the slots the Guardians draft at.
• Players who are draft-eligible are starting to pull out of the draft, including some guys who attended the draft combine.  I had thought if you attended the combine you were very interested in going pro but it looks like that might not be universally true.  I will be watching those announcements to see if they impact my mock drafts.
• Finally, as you will see tomorrow, I am taking a much different approach to my mock 3.0. For the first 10 rounds I am giving 3-6 players who I would consider drafting at each slot.  As I said, there are lots of quality players available as this draft is solid with the kinds of players I am looking for: college power hitters, college pitchers who are tall and are the opposite of soft tossers and high school catchers. There will be plenty of good players who I want to target in rounds 11-20, too, including HS catchers, college power hitters, high school pitching flyers and college pitchers with beig arms.  

Look forward to providing my Mock 3.0 for Day 1 of the draft (rounds 1-3) tomorrow night sometime. Then on Sunday night I will provide my Mock 3.0 for Day 2 which will include a "big board" of players I want to target in rounds 11-20.   On Day 2 I will also be doing a live blog and, after round 10 , I will expand my big board to include players not selected in rounds 1-10.

The fun starts on Sunday. Let's hope we have lots of positive things to talk about after Sunday and Monday!  Go Guardians!

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 15 - Comparison of Possible 1st Round Draft Picks Compared To Recent Draft Picks

So, there have been lots of mock drafts that have appeared for first round picks in the 2025 draft.  I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the scouting grades for each of the players I have seen linked with the Guardians.  For comparison sake, I have included the scouting grades of current top, recently drafted Guardians prospects.  I have only included college hitters as I feel that this will be the strength of the draft when the Guardians pick at #27.  I have broken this down into two groups (IF/OF or Catcher) based on what I have seen in mock drafts.  As you can see below, except for Caden Bodine, all of the top college hitters who have any chance of being available when the Guardians draft are left-handed hitters.

IF or OF

Bazzana (L): 65 Hit; 60 Power; 60 Run; 50 Fifeld; 50 Arm

DeLauter (L): 50 Hit; 60 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 60 Arm

CJ Kayfus (L): 55 Hit; 45 Power; 45 Run; 55 Field; 45 Arm

Andrew Fischer (L): 50 Hit; 60 Power; 40 Run; 45 Field; 55 Arm

Max Belyeu L): 55 Hit; 55 Power; 50 Run; 50 Field; 60 Arm

Mason Neville (L): 45 Hit; 60 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 55 Arm

Ethan Conrad (L): 55 Hit; 50 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 50 Arm

Cam Cannella (L): 55 Hit; 40 Power; 60 Run; 60 Field; 40 Arm

For comparison sake, here are two guys who might fall to the Guardians but have not been linked to them and who, likely, will be drafted before Cleveland picks:

Jace Laviollette (L): 45 Hit; 65 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 55 Arm

Devin Taylor (L): 55 Hit; 60 Power; 45 Run; 45 Field; 45 Arm

CATCHER

Cooper Ingle (L): 55 Hit; 30 Power; 50 Run; 50 Field; 45 Arm

Jacob Cozart (L): 40 Hit; 50 Power; 30 Run; 55 Field; 55 Arm

Caden Bodine (S): 60 Hit; 40 Power; 30 Run; 55 Field; 50 Arm

Luke Stevenson (L): 40 Hit; 55 Power; 30 Run; 55 Field; 60 Arm

ANALYSIS

All of the guys above seem to have talents the Guardians would need.  Without peeling back the onion to look at currently favored analytics (e.g., exist velocities, in-zone contact, chase) AND if you are looking for power (as I am, first and foremost) and defense and consider what this organization needs now in the next few years, the best choice would appear to be Mason Neville who looks like he will stick in CF or Andrew Fischer, if the team thinks he can stay at 3B.  

I am not into any additional contact-first guys so Cannella is not for me and Conrad is only acceptable to me if Taylor, LaViollette, Fischer and Neville are gone.

As far as the catchers, I was on Bodine for a while as the next guy up if Fischer is gone but I just don't think his scouting grades reflect his numbers.  He had his worst year in 2025, his draft year, and his value comes from his framing (maybe not important if we get ABS) and his hit tool, which did not show itself that much in performance this year, although the metrics say it should have.  Shoulda, coulda, woulda is not what I want to base my top pick on, however, especially when I have a similar guy (Ingle) in the organization already. Stevenson, to me, is a sucker pick as he is a catcher, which is generally the worst end of round 1 demographic, and his hit tool is questionable, making him maybe a bad risk of becoming a starting catcher. And we have Cozart whose ratings seem to be similar to those of Stevenson.

Remember, the goal here is to draft a college hitter who will mature fast enough to be a force during Ramirez and Kwan current contract period (2028 for both, although Kwan would have to accept a qualifying offer for 2028).  

Obviously Taylor could eventually be a replacement for Kwan if he goes elsewhere and Fischer, if his defense can stick at 3B, would be the replacement for Ramirez, if he leaves after 2028 (I hope Ramirez stays for his entire career in Cleveland!). LaViollete had an off year this year but he gives me DeLauter vibes but without the injury history.  I don't think Taylor or LaViollette is around when Cleveland picks, however.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 14 - Things That Worry/Comfort Me And Random Thoughts

 THINGS THAT WORRY ME (AND COMFORT ME)  LEADING UP TO THIS DRAFT

• WORRY: Ralphy Velasquez was drafted one spot after Colt Emerson in 2023.  Emerson is the #16 prospect in all of baseball.  Velasquez is the #9 prospect...in the Guardians top 30...not even in the top 100 in the game.  I thought this, plus Bo Naylor, Jake Fox and other HS hitters they have drafted would dissuade them from drafting any HS hitter early.  However, Ralphy is currently on a heater, pulling his average over .200 and continuing with his high % of XBH. So...

• WORRY: Despite the struggles this year of Joey Oakie, Jacob Zibin, Chase Mobley, Keegan Zinn and other recent HS pitcher draftees, Braylon Doughty is kind of on a heater himself.   His performance after an aggressive promotion to start the year at Lynchburg added to the success of former high HS pick Alex Clemmy at A+ this year, makes me worry the Guardians are going to spend another high pick or two on HS pitchers. I am all for 3rd day HS pitcher draft picks but I  think you have to go college early to fit into our current competitive window (defined by Ramirez' contract, to be specific).

• WORRY: Slow promotion (Tommy Hawke at Lynchburg, really?) has led to bloated stats for their 2022 and 2023 college slap hitter drafts. That, plus the success of Kayfus, makes me worry they are going to repeat, at some level, of that type of draft in 2025 despite the fact that Kayfus' upside projection of .290 w/15 HRs and no speed for a likely 1Bman in MLB is STILL his current trajectory, despite his quick upward trajectory (i.e., success at AAA),  In my opinion we have more than enough evidence that drafting LH slap hitters with no power (Lampe and Furman, for example) is a bad idea.

• COMFORT: The Guardians draft people like to be innovators.  The 2021 college pitcher draft may be the best draft in franchise history.  The 2023 LHH collage slap hitter draft was certainly a choice.  Maybe that can play to the Guardians advantage this year if they decide that college power hitters and college pitchers in the first 2 days of the draft is the way to go.  If they decide to draft HS pitchers, HS catchers and power hitters (HS and college) on the 3rd day instead of their standard organizational picks of college position player/college catcher/college relief pitcher/HS pitcher flyer 3rd day mix, maybe we can have a great 3rd day.  Plus, making the 11th round pick like a second, first round pick would be an improvement over previous years. The performance so far by Logun Clark should help that, although his BA is still not where I'd hoped it would be.

• COMFORT: There is not a lot of crazy buzz about players bolting up draft boards this late in the draft cycle.  Normally, there is a lot of movement but either teams are planning to play this straight or, like usual, are playing it close to their vests on this.  Still, there is usually some buzz and I haven't seen any, making me think this draft may be more predictable than recent drafts with guys going off the board when expected and teams like the Guardians, who like to be innovators, having the prospects they want to pick be available when they draft. So, it gives me faith that Matt Barr and some of the other guys I have targeted in my Mock 2.0 could still be there when the Guardians have the pick I think they should draft them.

• COMFORT: I have not seen anywhere this draft described anywhere as being strong on power hitters.   Teams like to draft multiple tool position players so a 1 (power) or 2 (power plus hit) tool, potential DH guy doesn't seem to be at the top of teams' boards.  SEEMS. Don't know what the reality is. 

• WORRY: The draft day phrase that makes me shutter with fear is "teams like who they like".  That gives a lot of space for draft room guys who think they are smarter than anyone else in the room (with "room" defined as all the draft people from all the teams) to make dumbass moves that will end up not helping us EVER.  Brady Aiken comes to mind but there have been so many of these head-scratching picks of guys who turn out to be terrible over the years that whenever I see these Cody Bunkelman-like picks that I cringe. So, that is my history and those are my fears.

RANDOM DRAFT THOUGHTS

• Will the Guardians' struggles influence their draft strategy?  For example, if they plan to be sellers at the deadline and target recent HS pitching draftees on other teams' low A rosters (e.g, as they did with Pittsburgh's Michael Kennedy), will that influence their draft strategy away from HS pitchers.  How about targeting switch hitters as trade targets? Even though he hasn't dominated yet, the thought of a bench with a switch hitter like Martinez along with Schneeman (LHH) and Fry (RHH) is intriguing, especially if Fry is the backup catcher next year and they can add another bench guy.  Switch hitters with good defensive versatility (like Martinez) are invaluable, IMO, to a good bench for a small market team, especially if that player has some power.

• I found a great article (2025 MLB Draft: Data Dig, Under the Radar Hitters who Possess Power & Plate Control) that details under-the-radar power hitters with good plate control/contact skills.  I think this could be a good pool of guys for 3rd day selections.  Again, these are 3rd day picks and so scouts shouldn't overthink that they found this pitcher at podunk U who is undervalued because, normally, those guys have a low probability of success and we have run that well dry in previous years.  Maybe time to try something different in 2025 and this article gives me faith those position players with power are still out there.

• The Guardians like to draft guys who have been successful on the Cape and guys who are young for their class.  I wonder how that will play into this draft as there are literal bunches of guys with that profile among the top prospects in this draft class.

• The most recent MLB Pipeline draft has us taking Ethan Conrad.  I hope not.  Most mocks I have seen have Tyler Bremner and Jace Laviollette going pretty early and it looks like Cam Bodine could go in the middle of the first round.  All that it would take is for Fischer to be taken before the Guardians and we may get into a place I don't want to be: taking someone who has bust or role player written all over him.  I think they need someone solid, not spectacular.  Someone who will play with Jose before his contract expires.