How Do We Fix Baseball - Part 3 - The International Amateur Draft

 

This post will discuss what I consider the single most important step we can put in place to increase competitive balance, long term, in baseball: institute a separate international draft each year on January 15th and change slightly the rules of years of player control and Rule 5 draft eligibility.  Why, you may ask, do I think an international amateur draft is important?

Currently, although there is some nuance to it, international amateur free agents can generally be signed after their 16th birthday.  Each year there is a signing period that runs from January 15th through mid-December.  There are international signing budgets that teams are supposed to stick to and, while the most recent CBAs have added some teeth to penalties for teams exceeding those budgets, the penalties are not nearly as severe as exceeding a budget in the US amateur draft (Rule 4 draft).  

As it stands now, teams 'negotiate' with the 'trainers' of these young Latin American players to, essentially, lock these kids into an organization as early as 14 years old, in anticipation of the kids signing when they turn 16.  While these commitments are non-binding, these understandings are pretty strong and I think we should find a way to eliminate them and make international amateur acquisitions favor the weaker teams. 

So, how would an international amateur draft work?

(1) As amateur baseball and travel leagues do not exist in Latin American countries to the extent they do in the US, group training and player evaluation combines would have to be set up by MLB to help identify the best players for each draft cycle.  This includes age verification.  Unlike the current system, players would only be able to be drafted if they are 16 years old on the date of the draft.

(2) Each international draft will be five rounds and the draft order will be set based solely on the inverse order of winning percentage in the previous ML season.  There would be no adjustment for playoff teams vs non-playoff teams and penalties for exceeding a draft budget would be the same as in the Rule 4 draft.

(3) Teams would be assigned draft budgets based on their draft slot values, just like they are for the Rule 4 draft and the same penalties would apply for the Rule 4 draft relative to loss of draft picks.

(4) After the 5 rounds teams could sign, as NDFAs, as many players as their would be allowed under the roster restrictions MLB has on DSL players.  Like the Rule 4 draft, an upper limit on bonuses of these NDFAs would be set up and bonuses larger than those limits would count against a team's draft budget.  

(5) To spur competitive balance, I propose giving revenue sharing teams an additional $3 million over their draft budgets that they HAVE to spend on signing international amateur players from the draft or as NDFAs.  

(6) The rules on player control and Rule 5 draft eligibility have to change, too. Players signed before they turn 17 years old would be under the control of a team for 7 years after they are drafted and their Rule 5 eligibility is pushed back one year from the current level.  These players are also automatically granted a 4th option year unless they make it to the major leagues before they are Rule 5-eligible for the first time.  These changes would address what currently happens where really good prospects are protected on the 40 man roster long before they are prepared to play in the major leagues, burning up all their option years before they can establish themselves in the majors.

OK, that's it for the international draft.  Next time we will talk about changes to the Rule 4 draft.

How To Fix Baseball - Part 2 - Salary Floor and Salary Cap And Other Things To Make Teams More Competitive

 Given the Dodgers repeat, the big off-season discussion is about how baseball needs a salary cap to keep the rich teams from buying up all the great free agents which, in theory, would give more teams the chance to compete for the best free agents by leveling the playing field, so to speak.  There is also discussion about how baseball needs a salary floor to make the cheap owners spend money to make their teams more competitive instead of just banking profits.

Here are the facts as I know them:

(1) The salary cap is going to be non-negotiable.  This is a key point that everybody needs to accept.  That horse has left the barn and it ain't coming back.  Once you have accepted that then the only choice is to continue to do what has been done previously: penalize teams for overspending and make the cheaper teams spend more money.

(2) The salary floor is something that needs to be considered.  The advantage of a salary floor is that it makes owners spend more money on payroll.  The disadvantage of a salary floor is that there are two main ways teams can reach that floor: sign free agents and extend their own players.  While the latter is a great way to raise team salaries and spur organic growth and competitiveness, the former will not end do ANYTHING for competitiveness.  Spending more money on free agents won't make teams more competitive for top or mid-tier free agents.  Instead, it will simply create a bidding war to drive up the price of those free agents who will still, likely, go to the richest teams.  The only thing a salary floor will do for free agency is make mediocre players richer as teams overpay lower free agents to make it above the floor.  In turn, this will fill roster spots with veterans making it much more difficutl for teams to play their own prospects or protect prospects on their 40 man rosters.

So, what is the solution regarding a salary floor?  Looking at team payrolls over the past few years there are always a few teams that lag way behind the rest in team payroll.  There is also another group that sits a cut above the low group but still well below the median team payroll.  I think a salary floor is necessary.  However, the floor should be low enough that we spur organic growth and not just make mediocre free agents richer.   My suggestion is the following:

(1) For the 2027 season, set a salary floor at $110 million.  Using 2025 team payrolls, that would pump close to $150 million into MLB payroll pool in 2027 compared to 2025.  That is more than enough to make teams who aren't spending money actually spend it but not enough money to make mediocre players rich by overpaying them.  

(2) Raise the salary floor by $5 million each year the next CBA is in effect.  This seems like a small increase each year but remember that the floor is designed to keep teams from shedding payrolls and banking profits, not to make mediocre players richer.  This small increase, combined with the salary floor, will give enough money for teams to have to keep their own players instead of selling at the deadline and the small increases each year will spur them to selectively pick players in their organization they want to extend, increasing organic growth compared to overspending on free agents.

A salary floor will not be enough to bring competitive balance quickly, but it will help.  Other measures that we will talk about in future posts, some of which exist and will need to be amplified and some of which are new, will be designed to further penalize the megaspending teams for their large payrolls and force the low spending teams to use their resources to improve the talent pool within their own organizations.

Ah, It's the Off-Season - Let's Look Ahead At The Next Few Weeks

The off-season officially begins today.  Lots of important dates so I thought I would summarize them, especially as they pertain to the Guardians.

November 2 

• Eligible ML players declare their free agency: Lane Thomas, Jakob Junis can declare. Junis may actually sign between now and November 6th (see below).
• Gold Glove Award Winners Announced: Kwan, Santana, Schneeman eligible
• Teams can start trading ML players and prospects with each other (they could only trade minor league players not on 40-man rosters since the trading deadline)

November 6 

• Free agents allowed to sign w/other teams (Guards likely to be quiet early w/ MLB FAs)
• Qualifying offers must be tendered (Guardians will not extend any)

November 7

• AL Silver Sluggers announced (Jose Ramirez finalist at 3B)

November 11

• AL Manager of the Year announced (Steven Vogt has a chance to win his 2nd in a row)

November 13 

• AL Hank Aaron Award winner and all-MLB Teams announced (Jose Ramirez has a chance in each category

November 18

• 40-man rosters and AAA and AA reserve lists set for each time in preparation of the Rule 5 draft (If I had it my way, prospects signed before their 17th birthday would get an extra year of team control and not be Rule 5 eligible for an additional year compared to players drafted out of high school. The Guardians have up to 20 guys that I see who are R5 eligible who I think might play in the majors some day for some team.  They are likely to protect 3-4 with Angel Genao, Khalil Watson and Austin Peterson the most likely and Wuilfredo Antunez a dark horse.  Of course, CA and Chernof have surprised us in the past by protecting relievers (e.g., Tim Herrin).  So, it will, as always, be interesting, and start the nail-biting up to December 10 (date the R5 draft is held).
• Players have to decide if they are going to accept QOs and, if not, go to free agency

November 21

• Teams have to decide if they will tender players 2026 contracts.  Non-tendered players become free agents (Lively, Hentges, Allard, Festa, Brennan are among Guardians who might be non-tendered).  Non-tendered players are then added to the free agent pool.
• NOTE: I have said for a long time that in the new CBA they should flip the 40-man roster freeze and non-tender dates.  It makes no sense to set your 40-man and then almost immediately non-tender guys who you have protected.  I know teams make that work but it makes no sense to this baseball fan.

December 7

• The group formerly known as the Veterans Committee will announce if any player who has completed their HOF consideration period will be added to the HOF for the upcoming year.  The nominees have not been announced but we can only hope that Kenny Lofton is among them.  There is lots of internet lobbying going on, some subtle, some not so subtle, for certain players being nominated.

December 10

• The Rule 5 Draft will be held.  Last year the Guardians had Christian Cairo selected in the ML phase and selected Will Wilson in the AAA phase.  I have ultimate faith in Antonetti and Chernof to do this right, as they seem to do every year.

How to Fix (and improve) Baseball and Save the 2027 Season...I Hope! - Part 1 - Generalities

This blog is about Cleveland Guardians baseball.  However, I think it is time to use this site to touch on subjects, when the need arises, that talk about professional baseball, in general.

With the collective bargaining agreement up for renewal after the 2026 season, I wanted to start a discourse about how we can 'fix' (or help improve) baseball in the new CBA.

In this post I want to talk in generalities that I will flesh out in future posts.  

So, as young people say, let's gooooooooooo!

SALARY CAP 

This is the only non-starter in this discussion.  Oh, believe me, this WILL be discussed.  However, I don't think you can have it both ways.  The can't tell some owners they can't spend all the money they want and then tell other (cheap?) owners they have to spend more than they want...or can afford.  So, while other sports have salary caps, I don't see how one in baseball can be implemented at this time...or maybe ever.

Besides, we already have rules in place to discourage teams from having large payrolls.  It doesn't stop those teams, but it does penalize them if they go too crazy.  I think history shows that  those rules are at least somewhat impactful although not totally restrictive.  I think it is the best we will get, though.

SALARY FLOOR

I am one of the biggest opponents of a floor for team payrolls.   Salary floors, as I see it, will only do 2 things:

(1) Make mediocre players richer as teams try to get above the floor before opening day.  This will not be effective at leveling the talent throughout the majors. 

(2) Make the fans of teams who have low payrolls feel better.

Neither of those things helps baseball.

A positive that MIGHT come out of a salary floor, if implemented incrementally, would be to encourage teams to sign their own players to longer term deals so they don't have to play mediocre veterans more than they are worth and, by so doing, block their younger players from getting to the majors and getting valuable (and for the teams, cheap) experience.

So, there is some thought that a salary floor, if low and increasing incrementally throughout the life of the new CBA, could prompt teams to lock up their own, young players long term which, in turn, would raise their yearly payroll.

So let's proposes this:

In 2027, implement a salary floor of $100 million in payroll (only 4 teams were below this in 2025) that goes up $10 million every year for the life of the new CBA. To be sure, this is a very low bar, but it at least does work towards removing the most egregious situations of owners not spending on their teams.

MANDATING (AND REWARDING) TEAM SPENDING AND IMPROVING COMPETITIVE BALANCE

 

I have included these 2 areas together as I think they can work together to get teams to spend money on improving their teams.  Here's what I am thinking:

Change how the MLB draft is structured:

(1) Increase the bonus pool disparity between revenue recipients and the remaining worst teams (record-wise) in the league.  To do that you would add, on top of their draft pool, $5 million for those teams and make it mandatory that these teams spend greater than 100% pf their bonus pool or risk penalties paid directly to MLB for dispersal to other teams. 

(2) Re-order the draft to favor revenue recipients with the highest payrolls.  No longer is losing rewarded but, rather, winning is rewarded for teams that have limited resources. 

Implement an international draft:

This, to me, is a crucial piece to slowly bring back competitive balance.  This would be a 10 round draft with the order being based on reverse winning percentage as was done a while back to determine the order of the domestic draft.  This would involve MLB working with everyone to create a pool of draft-eligible international amateur free agents.  Each team would have an assigned bonus pool as in the domestic draft that they couldn't exceed without losing access to the international draft for the following year.  Like the ML draft, revenue sharers and the worst ML teams would receive extra bonus pool money ($3 million) and they would have to use, essentially, their whole bonus pool in every draft.

In addition to this I would like to modify the R5 eligibility for international signees under the age of 18 to give them one additional year before they have to be rostered.  Noel, et al had to be rostered before they even reached AA because of their development pathway.  Clogging the 40 man roster with kids who can't impact your ML team for years is counterproductive to competitive balance.

Reward certain teams that increase their payroll from July 15th to August 1st.

The goal here is to incentivize teams to be buyers at the deadline instead of sellers.  Potentially this could be a larger piece of the revenue share pie or additional draft picks after the 4th round or, depending on the level of the increase, after the 4th & 5th rounds of the subsequent draft.

SUMMARY

As I said, this is just a first post with some generalities.  I will go into more detail on some of these topics in later posts in this series and also suggest things that I think will be better for the games, e.g., in the playoffs revert back to the regular season rules AFTER the 12th inning.  More on that later.

OK, Time To Go All In on 2026

 OK, so I am a prospect hugger.  I admit it.  I've sought counseling for it for that didn't stick.

Turns out that behavior like this is either genetic or environmental.  As I don't have any squirrels or hamsters in my bloodline, I have to assume it is environmental.  Since neither of my parents were hoarders, I have to assume it is something about my life experience that led me to be this way about Cleveland Guardians' prospects.

Maybe it was the fact that when I grew up "Wait 'till Next Year" signs could be seen at Municipal Stadium soon after Memorial Day.  So, looking towards next year and the hope that prospects bring caused me to be the prospect hugger I am today.

Or maybe it was my knowledge that we will never be competitive for the big free agents and so always will need to backfill with prospects.

Maybe it's because I have seen a recent trend showing that the Guardians have SUCKED at making trades in the past few years.

But the cause doesn't matter as much as the reality that I am a prospect hugger.

So, saying what I am going to say next has taken a lot of patience and several dozen paper bags as I created this post.

But the paper bags are used up, so here goes:

It's time to go all in for the 2026 season.  

As many others have said, we won't be doing this in mainstream free agency. No Schwarber, no Tucker, no Alonso.  Besides the fact that we SUCK at free agency, we just don't have the money.

So, as a number of others have said, we have to do this through trades and, maybe, at the edges of free agency to backfill holes (especially in the pitching staff) that we might create this off-season.  

So, here's my plan, augmented by some articles and twitter posts I have read:

We trade for Zach Neto, Ketel Marte, Louis Robert Jr. and Willson Contreras.

And here is the part where I blow through the hyperventilation bags:

I don't care how many prospects it takes to get them.

That's right.  Except for Chase DeLauter, everyone else is on the table.

If we have to empty the whole farm system and throw in Arias, Rocchio, Kayfus, Valera, Noel, JRod, Brennan I am fine with that.  I am even OK with including Messick (though I would rather trade Cecconi).  I would like to keep Aleman and Walters as bullpen insurance but I am even OK with including them if it gets these deals done, especially if I can get some quality veteran RPs coming back to us in these deals.

To put it another, more dramatic way, if you take a snapshot of our current NLB Pipeline top 30 prospects and all of them are gone by next spring training to get these 4 guys, I am fine with that. I am even better with it if we get some quality RPs and a maybe a couple of AZL/GFL or DSL prospects back.

Now it's likely we wouldn't have to include all the top 30 prospects so there should be some left but...whatever it takes.

It's time to get something done and it's time to make our run while keeping the window wide open with long-term deals or years until free agency even if, as is the case with Robert Jr., the contract may be bloated compared to the production the player might provide.

Since we won't open our wallets to bloated free agent salaries, it's time to open the prospect vault to get it done, even if it means loosening those purse strings to pay the salaries of these 4 guys.

If the lineup next year looks like this, I am satisfied:

C - Naylor

1B - Contreras

2B - Marte

SS - Neto

3B - Ramirez

LF - Kwan

CF - Robert Jr.

RF - Delauter

DH - Manzardo

Bench - Fry, Schneeman, Martinez, Hedges 

I am good with this IF we keep our pitching staff (minus Messick, if necessary) intact.

This is how we make a statement.  This is how we put ourselves in contention to go to the WS. If it all collapses due to injuries or poor performances, it collapses.  It's time to take a gamble in any area where we have a chance to improve...through trades.

Wow, I've gotten through this whole post without having to use one paper bag.  Maybe even a prospect hugger like me can be cured.!

Thoughts for September 16th

 MINOR LEAGUES

Akron has finished their season.  Here are my thoughts on several position players who started in Lake County or were injured during the season but finished the season in Akron:

• Ralph Velazquez finished the season in Akron and finished with an OPS of .994.  I see him as a top 100 prospect in baseball this winter on at least some ranking websites
• Wuilfredo Antunez hit well at both Lake County and Akron, maintaining his OPS and SB rate with a drop in power and walk rate after the promotion.  The Guardians will have an interesting choice deciding on whether he will be placed on the 40 man this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5.
• Angel Genao was hampered by injury but remains a top prospect in the Guardians' system.  He finished the year strong, pushing his BA to .260 with concomitant improvement in his SLG, OBP and, of course, his OPS. 
• Jorge Burgos is an under-the-radar prospect who stays interesting.  He ended the season injured but put up good numbers leading to 73 RBI and 14 HRs in only 355 ABs.  
• Jacob Cozart looked like a AAAA catcher in his time in Lake County but hit a little better when promoted to Akron.  I still think he profiles as a ML backup, something that that you don't want to see in a 2nd round catcher.  BTW, Antonneti said that they really liked Khal Stephen in the 2024 draft but just couldn't draft him.  Well, Cozart was drafted BEFORE Stephen in the 2nd round, meaning they liked Cozart better than Stephen. 
• Alfonsin Rosario struggled upon his promotion to Akron but finished with 5 HRs and 6 2B in 128 ABs after a good season in Lake County. 

I will have a complete article on Akron after the baseball season is complete but suffice it to say that there is a lot of talent on the current roster and it will be interesting to see how many of these guys are rostered by the Guardians this winter to protect them from the Rule 5..

Lynchburg goes for the Carolina League championship tonight with Joey Oakie on the mound.  Oakie finished strong in the ACL and carried that momentum to Lynchburg where he has just been dominating.  I think it likely will help him that he has not faced Columbia in the past.  If he is on, the Hillcats have a good chance of winning the league title.  Even if they lose tonight they still can win tomorrow but it would be great for Oakie if they could win tonight with him on the mound.

Columbus finishes their season this week and it would have been great to see Valezquez get a cup of coffee with the Clippers or DeLauter get back for a few games. But I guess that is not to be unless there is an injury that requires a replacement.  Still, if we could get a promotion for a guy like Austin Peterson it would decrease a little suspense regarding who is getting promoted this off-season.

Lake County ended their season by getting swept in the playoffs but defeating Great Lakes (Dodgers) head-to-head in the last series to make the playoffs was, by far, better than any first round win in the playoffs, especially since the Dodgers held off promoting their best players until after their season was done, likely with the goal of keeping the roster strong just to make the playoffs.  If you look back, the Guardians DID promote some of their better players at Lake County to Akron in August, meaning they were actually more concerned with player development than winning a meaningless (unless a Cleveland farm team wins, of course, LOL) minor league championship.

GUARDIANS

At the beginning of the year I didn't think the Guardians had a chance to make the playoffs as they actually got weaker from last year, trading away Gimenez and Josh Naylor. I predicted that the most likely result, even factoring in the returning players and that Vogt was really a good manager, was an 84-78 record.  Given everything that has happened this season, the Guardians being 78-71 going into Detroit tonight is pretty remarkable.  

I promised about 23 weeks ago that I wouldn't scoreboard watch but I have already broken that promise.  So, resetting to tonight's game, I promise to just enjoy my favorite team, whatever happens,  and only peak, out of the corner of one eye, at the scoreboard.  Look, it isn't perfect, but it's the best I can do which, I guess, is the output of the Guardians playing meaningful games in the last half of Setptember.

Go Guards!

Thoughts for September 6th

 GUARDIANS

I love baseball and I love watching the Guardians play, win or lose.  In fact, the run this organization has had with Francona and then one year of Vogt as manager has started to ruin that enjoyment.  Now people can't accept this as their golden years and want that brass ring of a WS championship.  But I have had enough of that and want to enjoy what we have been given and not get greeedy. So, win or lose, I am going to get back to how I was in the 70s and 80s: thankful for every win and cheering on my heroes.  

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: Thoughts About The Season and My Prediction for the Guardians 2025 Season

That being said, at the beginning of the season I predicted the following about their record:

84-78 - Most likely result if some things went right and some things went wrong.

70-92 - If most things went wrong

92-70 - If almost everything went right.

Well, after today's game we stand at 70-70.

This means that EVERYTHING hasn't gone wrong but, as we know now, many things have not gone right (Santana, Bazzana, DeLauter, Clase, Ortiz, Naylor, Lively, Thomas) but some things have (Manzardo, Cecconi (to a small degree)), Williams, Allen, Schneeman), meaning the sum tells us that the pipe dream of 92-70 is no longer possible but the total meltdown of 70-92 hasn't happened either.

So, all that's left now is to determine how many wins the Guardians will end up with and whether it will be enough to sneak into the playoffs as the 3rd wildcard.  The path is there but it's the journey I will enjoy, not worrying about the finish line.  Go Guardians!

PROSPECTS

The prospect story has not yet been completely told for 2025 as there are still a couple of weeks left in the regular season, plus playoffs, plus Arizona Fall League but here are some guys I think are making their way up (or down) the prospect rankings since my post-deadline, post-draft list that I posted at the beginning of August:

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: Guardians Top 100+ Prospects - Post-Draft, Post-Deadline Mid-Season Edition

Joey Oakie

Hey, it's only two games, but I have witnessed this kid carving up two different teams including some top 2025 draftees.  Maybe this is just the classic flash-in-the-pan performance but when you see a 19-year old with a 96-100 mph fastball having this success just after a promotion for the first time to a full-season team, it hits different.  This may be the start of something huge for this kid and, man, what a two-game ride it has been, 9.2 ip, 1 hit, 5 BB and 22 Ks. He will be the starting pitcher for Lynchburg in the playoffs.  No way any of us had that on our bingo cards at the beginning of 2025!  Stay healthy, kid.  It looks like your future is bright.

Ralph Velasquez

This is a kid who has grown up before our eyes.  Las year the Guardians pushed him aggressively to Lynchburg as a 19 year old. He had some good moments and the promise was clearly there.  After a late season promotion to Lake County in 2024 he was aggressively pushed to there to start 2025.  As the season progressed we saw him gain in confidence and find his routine in the batter's box.  They promoted him to Akron and he has exploded since then with an approach at the plate that looks like it will stand the test of time.  It's less than 100 ABs but with an OPS of over 1.100 it looks like more than just a heater that will level out.  I think this kid appears on some top 100 lists this winter, and deservedly so, IMO.

Yorman Gomez

Small sample size notwithstanding, Gomez has looked impressive this year, especially after his promotion to AA.  He is not physically imposing but has, in my opinion, put himself on the 'map' of guys who might debut in 2026.  He is, for the most part, dominating the strike zone at AA with stuff that should play even better as he moves up the ladder and has better fielders behind him.

Travis Bazzana

Really, I have no idea how this is going to turn out.  But Bazzana is at AAA and has had some limited success recently.  Look, EVERY Guardians fan want Bazzana to suddenly turn into the 1-1 we drafted.  When you consider the success of guys drafted after him in 2024 you can see how I am impatient and have trepidation that he may be that rare flop at 1-1, something this organization can really not have.  We need Bazzana to be a KEY contributor in the Jose, Kwan, Williams, Bibee, Smith, Manzardo years.  

MINOR LEAGUE PLAYOFFS

While we still have some regular season minor league games left, for the Guardians minor league teams the playoffs have been set. Our DSL and ACL teams did not make the playoffs,  Columbus and Akron aren't going to the playoffs and Lynchburg and Lake County are.

Lynchburg, if the revamped roster can gel they have a chance to win their league and the Captains are on a heater right now and have solid pitching with a no-quit attitude on offense.  

So both these teams can 'win it all' if things break their way.

One final note on the minor league playoffs:  It was especially satisfying that Lake County won their playoff spot head to head with a Great Lakes team (Dodgers) that had great players, some of whom Cleveland fans begged for in prospects-for-Kwan trade proposals that I argued against.  Looking at how DePaula and Hope played in this series and how they their seasons have gone, I am re-assured that trading Kwan for one of them plus other, lesser pieces, would have been a huge mistake.