The Indians had a plan, they stuck to it and they got the guys signed that they drafted. As it turns out, so did most of the rest of baseball.
The Indians did a masterful job saving enough money on Tyler Naquin, Kieran Lovegrove, Dylan Baker and their three college seniors (Wendle, Lee and Martin) in the first 10 rounds to be able to sign Mitch Brown, D'Vone McClure, Caleb Hamrick and Josh McAdams to overslot bonuses in the first 10 rounds. Maybe as a sign of how this new draft will effect drafting, the Indians failed to sign any of the higher profile guys who they drafted after the 10th round as, frankly, they just ran out of money.
They signed their first 16 picks. Most teams signed their first 10 picks, at least, as only 10 players in the first 10 rounds didn't sign. That is 328 out of 338 who signed. 36 picks in the first 16 rounds didn't sign so 482 out of 518 did sign. So, on average, most teams signed 15 of their first 16 picks. From this you could guess that most teams found a way to make this new draft procedure work for them.
If we make a big assumption that the Indians knew WHICH guys to draft (something that is still questionable after the much acclaimed 2010 draft class that, except for Francisco Lindor, is falling pretty flat on its face two years later), the Indians did a very good job.
Even with a mediocre (15th) draft slot and with no extra picks and 4 overslot bonuses in the top 10 rounds they still had $220,000 and change left over on Thursday night. Add 5% of their bonus pool and the Indians had close to $440,000 left to augment the $100,000 max they had available to give a player drafted after the 10th round without giving up a first round pick next year. If they used that 5% overage, the Indians would also owe ML Baseball . The only blemish on their draft is that they had most of that $220,000 left when the dust cleared at 4 pm CT today. The problem was they didn't have any $250,000 to $350,000 prospects left to sign at the last moment like they did last year. All the guys were either unsignable or only signable for very high six figure bonuses and the Indians didn't have the cap room left to make one of those signings happen. I was not for signing these guys for high bonuses as most of them represented, to me, Nick Pesco, Sean Smith, Travis Foley, Tony Dischler-like prospects who aren't really worth high bonuses.
The Indians played this draft exactly the way they wanted to. Maybe their strategy was good, maybe not, maybe novel or maybe, given the signing proficiency of other teams, just a variation on a theme. I think it was a great draft, all things considered (mediocre slot, low budget, no extra picks) as they got a lot of good prospects and stayed within their limted budget. They signed the guys they wanted to sign and for whom they had the money.
Next year, just pick one more $300,000 guy who you can blow your underage on at the last moment.
Contratulations to the Indians. I liked this draft from a strategic point of view which will almost always be my opinion when you sign a bunch of guys ranked higher than the slot they were drafted.
Now, on to the supplemental draft lotteries through the rest of the time until next year's draft.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Facts for people who think we should 'go for it'
Over the winter we made few efforts to really go for it this year. What we DID do was:
Trade Cory Burns and lose Josh Judy for Aaron Cunningham and his sub-.200 batting average. Total waste.
Trade top 15 prospect Zach Putnam for Kevin Slowey and pay Slowey good money to suck at AAA, and that was before he got hurt.
Sign Jose Lopez, he of the sub .250 BA.
We have also, in the recent past, traded #3 Rays prospect Chris Archer and Jeff Stevens for Mark DeRosa. Fortunately, we balanced that out by flipping DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jess Todd.
Plus, who can forget trading Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride and Joe Gardner last year for Ubaldo Jimenez when we were going for it.
So, before you think we should 'go for it' remember who is making those trades. It's not you or I and we are not living in fantasy baseball or fantasy world.
Part of the reason for me saying not to 'go for it' is that the people we have in the FO who would orchestrate these moves really have shown themselves to be pretty pathetic when they try to 'go for it'.
Heck, they are pathetic when they trade to rebuild, too, but at least that makes our farm system stronger rather than weaker.
Stand pat OR have a fire sale. Don't be buyers, for sure.
Trade Cory Burns and lose Josh Judy for Aaron Cunningham and his sub-.200 batting average. Total waste.
Trade top 15 prospect Zach Putnam for Kevin Slowey and pay Slowey good money to suck at AAA, and that was before he got hurt.
Sign Jose Lopez, he of the sub .250 BA.
We have also, in the recent past, traded #3 Rays prospect Chris Archer and Jeff Stevens for Mark DeRosa. Fortunately, we balanced that out by flipping DeRosa to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jess Todd.
Plus, who can forget trading Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride and Joe Gardner last year for Ubaldo Jimenez when we were going for it.
So, before you think we should 'go for it' remember who is making those trades. It's not you or I and we are not living in fantasy baseball or fantasy world.
Part of the reason for me saying not to 'go for it' is that the people we have in the FO who would orchestrate these moves really have shown themselves to be pretty pathetic when they try to 'go for it'.
Heck, they are pathetic when they trade to rebuild, too, but at least that makes our farm system stronger rather than weaker.
Stand pat OR have a fire sale. Don't be buyers, for sure.
Ah, the Futures Game
Lindor gets a dribbler through the infield, Aguilar draws a tough walk off Gerrit Cole and then goes 1-3 with two outs where he just misses a HR on balls hit pretty deep to the OF.
Of course, the thoughts dancing in my head were of James Tallion, Jurickson Profar, Gerrit Cole, Nick Castellanos, Mike Olt, and others.
Why those guys? Because they are prospects for teams likely to be buyers at or before the trade deadline.
Why should I be thinking about their prospects? Because the Indians should always be thinking about being sellers at the deadline.
Right now I would take Tallion for Ubaldo Jimenez and Joe Smith.
I would take Castellano for Chris Perez
I would take Olt for Choo and Profar for whatever veteran the Rangers want except for Cabrera.
Yeah, these are pipedreams but a guy can dream, can't he? I mean, no way Ubaldo Jimenez could bring Colorado not one but two highly rated first round draft picks, but he did.
Of course, the thoughts dancing in my head were of James Tallion, Jurickson Profar, Gerrit Cole, Nick Castellanos, Mike Olt, and others.
Why those guys? Because they are prospects for teams likely to be buyers at or before the trade deadline.
Why should I be thinking about their prospects? Because the Indians should always be thinking about being sellers at the deadline.
Right now I would take Tallion for Ubaldo Jimenez and Joe Smith.
I would take Castellano for Chris Perez
I would take Olt for Choo and Profar for whatever veteran the Rangers want except for Cabrera.
Yeah, these are pipedreams but a guy can dream, can't he? I mean, no way Ubaldo Jimenez could bring Colorado not one but two highly rated first round draft picks, but he did.
Bonehead move followed by a, well, bonehead move
Nick Hagadone punches a wall, breaks his wrist. Absolutely stupid. But young guy, in anger, does something stupid. Surprise, surprise. His worst crime is punching the wall with his pitching hand. The rest is bad luck. Kevin Brown once broke his left hand hitting a clubhouse wall, but he pitches right handed. Jason Isringhausen, Pat Zachary, the list goes on and on. It should have ended there as the guy just ended his season, doing damage to himself and his career that he would have to recover from. Unfortunately for everyone involved, it didn't end there.
Soon after, the Indians apparently put him on the restricted list, i.e., the non-paid list to, apparently, punish him for his bonehead act. If this is what they did then they may need their heads examined.
Interestingly, the Indians employ a psychologist, Dr. Charles Maher who apparently has experience in this area as he was quoted after Amar'e Stoudemire did the same thing to a fire extinguisher after a Knicks loss to the Heat earlier this year.
Maybe Chris Antonnetti should go talk to Mr. Maher. Maybe Mr. Maher could help him with his inability to get good value in most of his trades while he is talking to him about how to handle young adults.
Or maybe they should fire Dr. Maher for not arming young Mr. Hagadone with the tools to control his anger.
Heaven knows, after hearing that the Indians put Hagadone on the disqualified list, I had to do some deep breathing.
Maybe Mr. Antonnetti should learn to count to 10 before acting.
Now, I know I am looking at this from an outsider's viewpoint and there may be more to the story that what it appears to be. Nevertheless, what it appears to be is, to most people, what it is. Just like players who underperform generally don't get special treatment, front offices who underperform shouldn't be given special passes because 'there may be more going on that meets the eye'. Unless some good explanation comes pretty quickly from the Indians why it was better for Hagadone to be disqualified, it just looks to this outsider like an angry kneejerk by an inept front office mad at Hagadone because he lowered their infinitesimal chance at the playoffs by some fraction of a percentage point by getting hurt.
Next time Mr. Hagadone should think before he acts...but so should the Indians FO who should know better.
EDIT: One more thing to think about: If you were an Indians' draft choice this year who hasn't signed, would it make it more or less likely to sign? May be unrelated but, for me, I would be hesistant to join an organization that would take this action against one of its own players unless there was a compelling reason made public soon that it actually HELPED the player. Maybe it is like the Juan Lara thing a few years ago. Who knows. But, right now, it is egg on the Indians face at a time they can ill-affod it.
Soon after, the Indians apparently put him on the restricted list, i.e., the non-paid list to, apparently, punish him for his bonehead act. If this is what they did then they may need their heads examined.
Interestingly, the Indians employ a psychologist, Dr. Charles Maher who apparently has experience in this area as he was quoted after Amar'e Stoudemire did the same thing to a fire extinguisher after a Knicks loss to the Heat earlier this year.
Maybe Chris Antonnetti should go talk to Mr. Maher. Maybe Mr. Maher could help him with his inability to get good value in most of his trades while he is talking to him about how to handle young adults.
Or maybe they should fire Dr. Maher for not arming young Mr. Hagadone with the tools to control his anger.
Heaven knows, after hearing that the Indians put Hagadone on the disqualified list, I had to do some deep breathing.
Maybe Mr. Antonnetti should learn to count to 10 before acting.
Now, I know I am looking at this from an outsider's viewpoint and there may be more to the story that what it appears to be. Nevertheless, what it appears to be is, to most people, what it is. Just like players who underperform generally don't get special treatment, front offices who underperform shouldn't be given special passes because 'there may be more going on that meets the eye'. Unless some good explanation comes pretty quickly from the Indians why it was better for Hagadone to be disqualified, it just looks to this outsider like an angry kneejerk by an inept front office mad at Hagadone because he lowered their infinitesimal chance at the playoffs by some fraction of a percentage point by getting hurt.
Next time Mr. Hagadone should think before he acts...but so should the Indians FO who should know better.
EDIT: One more thing to think about: If you were an Indians' draft choice this year who hasn't signed, would it make it more or less likely to sign? May be unrelated but, for me, I would be hesistant to join an organization that would take this action against one of its own players unless there was a compelling reason made public soon that it actually HELPED the player. Maybe it is like the Juan Lara thing a few years ago. Who knows. But, right now, it is egg on the Indians face at a time they can ill-affod it.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
International Incident or International Coup?
July 2nd. In the minds of prospect geeks this is an important day. It's the day that very, very young (16+ years old) Latin American and European free agents and college-age Pacific Rim free agents can sign their first pro contracts.
But, to quote Bill Murray in the movie Stripes, "Then depression set in". The Indians, employing a strategy seldom seen in baseball, spent at least $2 million of their $2.9 million budget on 4 guys who were not even very highly ranked based on Baseball America's top 20 Latin prospect rankings. Here are those guys:
unranked Hector Cora for $1.1 million in a move that a number of teams and BA are apparently panning as WAY overspending.
unranked Francisco Mejia $350,000
unranked Grofy Cruz for $400,000
unranked Yoiber Marquina for $200,000
Hey, it may work out. But it is more likely just an attempt to throw 'stuff' against a wall and hope that some of it sticks, after having paid a lot of money, relatively for that stuff.
Here are some facts:
The Indians have had success recently (Dorssys Paulino) by signing a top Latin kid for good money.
The Indians have had success (Victor Martinez, Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona), signing Latin kids en masse and having a few develop. At one point a couple of years ago the Indians had as many if not more Latin kids in their top 30 prospects as most other teams in baseball. That hasn't translated into major leaguers as guys like Carlos Rivero, Kelvin de la Cruz and Hector Rondon have not panned out. But, in my opinion, the strategy was solid.
The Indians have NOT had success signing unknown or middling prospects to middling bonuses. Guys like Alex Monsalve, Jairo Kelly, Elvis Araujo and, of course, the false-named Jose Ozoria (nee Wauli Bryan) all were signed for middling ($300,000 to $600,000) bonuses.
Yet they spent almost all their money on guys who were these types of middling prospects. The worst was Cora, whose signing was panned by BA and apparently baseball experts from other teams as a WAY, WAY over-talent bonus.
Plus they signed him for this bloated bonus when other, TOP, talent was signing for nearly the same amount.
Will this strategy work out for the Indians? Who knows. The rest of baseball and Indians' Latin signing history may be wrong and the Indians may be right. However, looking at their history of producing stud prospects from Latin American signings in the past 5 years, I doubt it.
Sorry, fans, the Indians most likely blew it in Latin America this year when they could have signed two top 10 Latin prospects for what it cost them to sign Curly, Moe, Larry and Shump.
Ah, the life of an Indians' fan. Never-ending, eye-rolling disbelief. .
But, to quote Bill Murray in the movie Stripes, "Then depression set in". The Indians, employing a strategy seldom seen in baseball, spent at least $2 million of their $2.9 million budget on 4 guys who were not even very highly ranked based on Baseball America's top 20 Latin prospect rankings. Here are those guys:
unranked Hector Cora for $1.1 million in a move that a number of teams and BA are apparently panning as WAY overspending.
unranked Francisco Mejia $350,000
unranked Grofy Cruz for $400,000
unranked Yoiber Marquina for $200,000
Hey, it may work out. But it is more likely just an attempt to throw 'stuff' against a wall and hope that some of it sticks, after having paid a lot of money, relatively for that stuff.
Here are some facts:
- The top 10 Latin prospects in this signing period signed for between $800,000 and $1.5 million.
- This past winter in Baseball America's top 50 prospects there were only 10 Latin American kids listed. Of those 10, 7 of them signed for a bonus of $800,000 or more, one signed for $450,000 and the other two were bargain basement (i.e., under $100,000) signings. All of the guys who received bonuses of $800,000 or more were among the top 10 Latin prospects in the year they signed.
The Indians have had success recently (Dorssys Paulino) by signing a top Latin kid for good money.
The Indians have had success (Victor Martinez, Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona), signing Latin kids en masse and having a few develop. At one point a couple of years ago the Indians had as many if not more Latin kids in their top 30 prospects as most other teams in baseball. That hasn't translated into major leaguers as guys like Carlos Rivero, Kelvin de la Cruz and Hector Rondon have not panned out. But, in my opinion, the strategy was solid.
The Indians have NOT had success signing unknown or middling prospects to middling bonuses. Guys like Alex Monsalve, Jairo Kelly, Elvis Araujo and, of course, the false-named Jose Ozoria (nee Wauli Bryan) all were signed for middling ($300,000 to $600,000) bonuses.
Yet they spent almost all their money on guys who were these types of middling prospects. The worst was Cora, whose signing was panned by BA and apparently baseball experts from other teams as a WAY, WAY over-talent bonus.
Plus they signed him for this bloated bonus when other, TOP, talent was signing for nearly the same amount.
Will this strategy work out for the Indians? Who knows. The rest of baseball and Indians' Latin signing history may be wrong and the Indians may be right. However, looking at their history of producing stud prospects from Latin American signings in the past 5 years, I doubt it.
Sorry, fans, the Indians most likely blew it in Latin America this year when they could have signed two top 10 Latin prospects for what it cost them to sign Curly, Moe, Larry and Shump.
Ah, the life of an Indians' fan. Never-ending, eye-rolling disbelief. .
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Buyers, sellers or neither?
Dear Cleveland Indians,
Stand pat at the trading deadline. Don't be buyers, don't be sellers, stand pat!
Sincerely,
Cleveland Indians Perspective
It's that time of year. July rolls around and I start to shiver. No, I don't live in the Southern Hemisphere where winter has started. I live in the US...but I am a fan of the Cleveland Indians.
July should be a joyous month. The Indians should either be in contention and there should be a buzz of hope around Progressive Field that those "Wait 'til Next Year" placards waived around on opening day might have been a tad premature.....or the Tribe should be out of contention already and shopping their good players who are close to free agency for stud prospects, making prospect geeks like myself giggle with anticipation not seen at any other time but Christmas morning. I mean, we are Indians' fans, right? Hope for the future is what many of us were raised on.
So this time of year should be guaranteed fun but, given recent history, it is a scary time as both of these scenarios have led to disaster for the Indians in recent years, disasters that could have already turned them into a non-competitive second- or third-tier club for the next 9-10 years (unless you want to call hovering around the .500 mark being competitive). Disasters that have also led to us not coming close to a playoff berth.
As teams approach the trade deadline they are either a buyer, a seller or standing pat.
A lot of the strategy you pick should be based on three things:
(a) The strength of your division and how you project out the rest of the season, based on no one making a significant move in your division.
(b) How you project your team's competitiveness over the next 3 years
(c) What other teams are holding fire sales.
Two shocking announcements/rumors came out in the last couple of days:
(1) The Phillies, with their all-star roster, are predicted to have a fire sale in July
(2) 41-year old Jim Thome was traded to Baltimore for two prospects, one of who is actually a legitimate prospect.
Two other rumors also got the trade deadline ball rolling
(1) The Brewers may actually be sellers at the deadline
(2) Carlos Lee is about to be traded to the Dodgers
So, looking at the 3 things the Indians' deadline strategy should be based on here is what I see:
(a) The AL Central division is in flux. No way the Royals hang on. The Twins are done. That leaves the underperforming Tigers and the surprising White Sox. Looking at those teams, the Tigers are most likely to be buyers at the deadline. The Tigers have a stronger farm system than the Indians and have the ultimate prospect chip to spend in Jacob Turner if they want to make a run. The White Sox, on the other hand, are rebuilding as they need to as their farm system was rated the worst in baseball by Baseball America last winter. So, if the Indians make a move that costs them prospects/young players you can count on the Tigers making a bigger move. When the Indians traded for Jimenez last July thinking they had 2 1/2 years of him left, the Tigers theoretically shut the door on the Tribe by signing Prince Fielder over the winter to negate the impact of us getting Jimenez. While it hasn't worked out for the Tigers so far, on paper, they are clearly the better team AND have deeper pockets, both in prospects and money, than the Indians to counter an Indians' desperate move or two this July.
(b) The Indians will have their core through next season and, in two years, will have only lost Shin-Soo Choo, Roberto Hernandez, Travis Hafner, Joe Smith and Rafael Perez. None of those guys except for Choo are irreplaceable from the farm system or non-compensation type free agency, especially factoring in salaries. Thus, their team will remain essentially almost as strong (or weak) as it is now if they don't acquire a guy they control through 2014 at the deadline this year or over the winter. Considering that draft compensation for free agents will be limited, frankly, only to franchise players, the free agent market should be a place the Indians can play next year. While I could see the Indians doing a complete fire sale of Masterson, Jimenez, Choo, Chirs Perez and Cabrera, I just don't see the current production by those guys to bring back impact prospects nor do I see the rest of the pieces (young major leaguers/ML ready prospects) being in place that would result in a quick rebuilding and allow us to compete by 2014 if we DID decide to have a fire sale.
(c) With the Phillies and Brewers rumored to be having fire sales and the Phillies already extracting pretty good value for Thome, the market appears to be a seller's market at this point. That sounds good for the Indians but they don't have the prospects to trade to get a big name player who they will control through 2014 after which all heck will break loose when Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez all can become free agents.
So, should the Indians be buyers, sellers or stand pat at the trade deadline? By the above logic I hope you can see they should stand pat. They don't have the stud players to sell and, if they did, historically they have shown they are pretty pathetic in making deals (see CC and Cliff Lee with Victor Martinez being the exception). Last year should have shown you how trading your stud prospects can kill your long-term future. Ubaldo Jimenez should have never been traded for. That is obvious now. It did nothing for us last year, it is likely to do nothing for us this year and, given his performance so far, is unlikely to help us next year. I said at the time that the Indians better know what they were doing as this trade killed a lot of potential for them to compete for the next 10 years if it blew up in their face. Well, it blew up in their face big time.
Given all this I wouldn't trust the Indians to make a good deal either way: buyer or seller. They have blown it big time both ways over the past 5 years and it is killing their long term competitiveness right now, something I said was the likely outcome after each of the CC, Lee and Jimenez trades. The only thing that makes sense to me is that they stand pat. That is, they ONLY acquire either bargain-basement talent or talent at bargain basement prices. That means a right handed bat who costs them no one in their top 20 prospects or a trade to make the team incrementally better like the August 2012 trade that brought Thome back here.
I know mine will not be a popular opinion but that is my opinion. Given the dismal failure of the Indians to impact the end result in the past few years, I think standing pat is the only way to go. If they are buyers they are crazy, if they are sellers they need to do a MUCH better job than they have in the past and there is no reason to think they will be able to do that. So, stand pat Tribe.
Stand pat at the trading deadline. Don't be buyers, don't be sellers, stand pat!
Sincerely,
Cleveland Indians Perspective
It's that time of year. July rolls around and I start to shiver. No, I don't live in the Southern Hemisphere where winter has started. I live in the US...but I am a fan of the Cleveland Indians.
July should be a joyous month. The Indians should either be in contention and there should be a buzz of hope around Progressive Field that those "Wait 'til Next Year" placards waived around on opening day might have been a tad premature.....or the Tribe should be out of contention already and shopping their good players who are close to free agency for stud prospects, making prospect geeks like myself giggle with anticipation not seen at any other time but Christmas morning. I mean, we are Indians' fans, right? Hope for the future is what many of us were raised on.
So this time of year should be guaranteed fun but, given recent history, it is a scary time as both of these scenarios have led to disaster for the Indians in recent years, disasters that could have already turned them into a non-competitive second- or third-tier club for the next 9-10 years (unless you want to call hovering around the .500 mark being competitive). Disasters that have also led to us not coming close to a playoff berth.
As teams approach the trade deadline they are either a buyer, a seller or standing pat.
A lot of the strategy you pick should be based on three things:
(a) The strength of your division and how you project out the rest of the season, based on no one making a significant move in your division.
(b) How you project your team's competitiveness over the next 3 years
(c) What other teams are holding fire sales.
Two shocking announcements/rumors came out in the last couple of days:
(1) The Phillies, with their all-star roster, are predicted to have a fire sale in July
(2) 41-year old Jim Thome was traded to Baltimore for two prospects, one of who is actually a legitimate prospect.
Two other rumors also got the trade deadline ball rolling
(1) The Brewers may actually be sellers at the deadline
(2) Carlos Lee is about to be traded to the Dodgers
So, looking at the 3 things the Indians' deadline strategy should be based on here is what I see:
(a) The AL Central division is in flux. No way the Royals hang on. The Twins are done. That leaves the underperforming Tigers and the surprising White Sox. Looking at those teams, the Tigers are most likely to be buyers at the deadline. The Tigers have a stronger farm system than the Indians and have the ultimate prospect chip to spend in Jacob Turner if they want to make a run. The White Sox, on the other hand, are rebuilding as they need to as their farm system was rated the worst in baseball by Baseball America last winter. So, if the Indians make a move that costs them prospects/young players you can count on the Tigers making a bigger move. When the Indians traded for Jimenez last July thinking they had 2 1/2 years of him left, the Tigers theoretically shut the door on the Tribe by signing Prince Fielder over the winter to negate the impact of us getting Jimenez. While it hasn't worked out for the Tigers so far, on paper, they are clearly the better team AND have deeper pockets, both in prospects and money, than the Indians to counter an Indians' desperate move or two this July.
(b) The Indians will have their core through next season and, in two years, will have only lost Shin-Soo Choo, Roberto Hernandez, Travis Hafner, Joe Smith and Rafael Perez. None of those guys except for Choo are irreplaceable from the farm system or non-compensation type free agency, especially factoring in salaries. Thus, their team will remain essentially almost as strong (or weak) as it is now if they don't acquire a guy they control through 2014 at the deadline this year or over the winter. Considering that draft compensation for free agents will be limited, frankly, only to franchise players, the free agent market should be a place the Indians can play next year. While I could see the Indians doing a complete fire sale of Masterson, Jimenez, Choo, Chirs Perez and Cabrera, I just don't see the current production by those guys to bring back impact prospects nor do I see the rest of the pieces (young major leaguers/ML ready prospects) being in place that would result in a quick rebuilding and allow us to compete by 2014 if we DID decide to have a fire sale.
(c) With the Phillies and Brewers rumored to be having fire sales and the Phillies already extracting pretty good value for Thome, the market appears to be a seller's market at this point. That sounds good for the Indians but they don't have the prospects to trade to get a big name player who they will control through 2014 after which all heck will break loose when Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez all can become free agents.
So, should the Indians be buyers, sellers or stand pat at the trade deadline? By the above logic I hope you can see they should stand pat. They don't have the stud players to sell and, if they did, historically they have shown they are pretty pathetic in making deals (see CC and Cliff Lee with Victor Martinez being the exception). Last year should have shown you how trading your stud prospects can kill your long-term future. Ubaldo Jimenez should have never been traded for. That is obvious now. It did nothing for us last year, it is likely to do nothing for us this year and, given his performance so far, is unlikely to help us next year. I said at the time that the Indians better know what they were doing as this trade killed a lot of potential for them to compete for the next 10 years if it blew up in their face. Well, it blew up in their face big time.
Given all this I wouldn't trust the Indians to make a good deal either way: buyer or seller. They have blown it big time both ways over the past 5 years and it is killing their long term competitiveness right now, something I said was the likely outcome after each of the CC, Lee and Jimenez trades. The only thing that makes sense to me is that they stand pat. That is, they ONLY acquire either bargain-basement talent or talent at bargain basement prices. That means a right handed bat who costs them no one in their top 20 prospects or a trade to make the team incrementally better like the August 2012 trade that brought Thome back here.
I know mine will not be a popular opinion but that is my opinion. Given the dismal failure of the Indians to impact the end result in the past few years, I think standing pat is the only way to go. If they are buyers they are crazy, if they are sellers they need to do a MUCH better job than they have in the past and there is no reason to think they will be able to do that. So, stand pat Tribe.
Monday, June 11, 2012
Shadow Draft Verson 2 - Mirroring the Indians' strategy
OK, the Indians had an interesting strategy that is being widely rated as among the top in baseball. But what if they evaluate wrong. Here is an alternate draft that I think is cheaper and fills some needs while, at the same time, might be stronger
1st round - Victor Roache - OF - Georgia Southern
2nd round - Mitch Brown - RHP - HS Minnesota
3rd round - Kieran Lovegrove - RHP - HS California
4th round - D'Vone McClure - OF - HS Arkansas
5th round - Dylan Baker - RHP - Western Nevade JC
6th round - Michael Roth - RHP - South Carolina (Sr.)
7th round - Josh Schubert-McAdams - OF - HS Georgia
8th round - Taylor Dugas OF - Alabama (Sr.)
9th round - Jacob Lee RHP - Arkansas State (Sr.)
10th round - Josh Martin RHP - Samford (Sr.)
11th round - Logan Vick OF - Baylor
12th round - Jeremy Lucas C - Indiana State
13th round - Sam Stafford RHP - Texas (Sr.)
14th round - Matt Reckling RHP - Rice (Sr.)
15th round - Nelson Rodriguez 1B - HS NY
16th round - Cody Penny RHP - North Carolina
17th round - Andrew Calica OF - HS California
The rest of my picks will be the same as the Indians. This draft brings in Dugas, Stafford, Reckling and Roth, all of whom, along with Lee and Martin, could be cheap and it still brings most of the risky picks the Indians want. I still contend that Roache could have been signed to a below slot deal, maybe cheaper than Naquin, giving the Indians more money to sign Brown and the other HS picks (including Corey Raley) who will require above slot bonuses
1st round - Victor Roache - OF - Georgia Southern
2nd round - Mitch Brown - RHP - HS Minnesota
3rd round - Kieran Lovegrove - RHP - HS California
4th round - D'Vone McClure - OF - HS Arkansas
5th round - Dylan Baker - RHP - Western Nevade JC
6th round - Michael Roth - RHP - South Carolina (Sr.)
7th round - Josh Schubert-McAdams - OF - HS Georgia
8th round - Taylor Dugas OF - Alabama (Sr.)
9th round - Jacob Lee RHP - Arkansas State (Sr.)
10th round - Josh Martin RHP - Samford (Sr.)
11th round - Logan Vick OF - Baylor
12th round - Jeremy Lucas C - Indiana State
13th round - Sam Stafford RHP - Texas (Sr.)
14th round - Matt Reckling RHP - Rice (Sr.)
15th round - Nelson Rodriguez 1B - HS NY
16th round - Cody Penny RHP - North Carolina
17th round - Andrew Calica OF - HS California
The rest of my picks will be the same as the Indians. This draft brings in Dugas, Stafford, Reckling and Roth, all of whom, along with Lee and Martin, could be cheap and it still brings most of the risky picks the Indians want. I still contend that Roache could have been signed to a below slot deal, maybe cheaper than Naquin, giving the Indians more money to sign Brown and the other HS picks (including Corey Raley) who will require above slot bonuses
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