Musings of a worry wart as we end the exhibition season

OK, so the defending AL champion, take-it-to-the-10th-inning-of-the-WS Indians are done with the meaningless games and on to the regular season.  Unlike the NBA, to me the regular season is important, especially since Kyrie Irving is not leading off, LeBron James is not batting cleanup and Kevin Love is not protecting LeBron by hitting in the 5 hole. 

So here are my biggest worries..at least the ones I can see

• Is this just another Bryan Shaw spring training blowup or should we really be worried about a 17.16 ERA in spring training?  I know in spring training pitchers work on things but this ERA makes me think all Shaw was working on was understanding what it was like to take a beatdown...over and over again.  I mean, I don't even know if that is a good ERA in slow pitch softball.   So, is he hurt or worn out from all those appearances over the past few years or is he just working on things?
• Boone Logan really sucks.   I know he is probably just getting his work in and facing more righthanded hitters than he will ever see in an entire season but, man, this guy is getting hammered almost every appearance.  Not at a Brian Shaw level but, nonetheless, at an alarming level.
• Given that the Indians will likely never tell the truth about this stuff, how serious is Kipnis' injury, really?
• Michael Brantley...did you expect an explanation?   I think just saying "Michael Brantley" is explanation enough.  They say Brantley will be one of the 25 players who are flying to Texas with the Indians.   How many additional guys are driving up?
• Is Chloe Kardasian likely to date any of the single guys on the Indians this year, too.
• Every pitch, every AB, every moment until we win the AL championship.  Well, if this last one was true I wouldn't have any fun this year, would I?  No, so let's throw out this last one.   Well, maybe the last two, and just say that there is enough real to worry about with the Indians that it will make this season even more interesting than last year. 

One week left - What we know, what we don't know and what prospects may break through this year

Here is what we know and here is something to think about.

Austin Jackson has made the team
Shawn Armstrong has probably made the team
A lot of people who we didn't think would make the team out of spring training didn't.

Here is what we don't know:

Will the Indians carry an extra relief pitcher if they DL Carlos Carrasco?
Does Austin Jackson making the opening day roster mean that another OFer expected to make the team (Naquin?  Almonte?) will be sent to the minors or does it mean that Brantley or Chisenhall will be DL'd to start the season?
Who will be our utility infielder?
Who will replace Kipnis in the starting lineup?

All these are things we don't know and hope to find out in this last week.  Obviously things can change quickly if someone comes up lame but we are pretty set at every position on the roster if something goes wrong this week.

Something to think about:  Which rookies will be on roster in August  and having a big impact by August?

My guess is, if we are where we think we should be, there will be a new bat added to the roster by August 1st.   But while a trade would be nice we could also do this with a rookie. In addition, others may make their mark in the minors and get a chance.   Let's look at potential breakout prospects and see what their chances are of impacting the Indians in 2017.

Bradley Zimmer - All you have to know about him is that he can impact the game in so many ways.   His bat, his arm, his legs.   If the Indians need anything this year it is another solid OFer.   Zimmer could be that guy.   An outfield of Branlety, Zimmer and a platoon in right of Chisenhall and Guyer is a pretty solid OF.   Naquin as the 4th OFer (meaning no Almonte or Jackson) would be not only great for this year but for the future, as well.   If the OF is going to evolve this year, it will be due to the promotion of Zimmer and Naquin-like (or better) success by Zimmer this summer.

Yandy Diaz - Another reason not to trade for a bat in July, Diaz has the potential to impact the game, especially if either Santana or Encarnacion go do for any amount of time and Diaz can DH.  If they can live with so-so defense, he could be in the starting lineup opening day.

Shawn Armstrong - This is a make-or-break year for Armstrong.   Either he is the 7th guy in the BP or he is a shutdown reliever.  Time will tell.   If it is the former, he gives us the additional righty we need in case we have injuries.

Giovanny Urshela - I remember the comic strip where the scientist was writing a formula on the board and you say "...and then a miracle happened".  This is Urshela.   I mean, the guy can field with the best of them.   But why can't he hit and, more importantly, can he be selective?  Ozzie Smith learned to hit, Omar Vizquel learned to hit and it made valuable defenders so much more valuable.   There are a number of thirdbasemen who are more doubles than HR hitters and they survive in the majors.  If a miracle happens he might be a useful part this year for the Indians and may even be our opening day thirdbaseman if we feel we have enough offense.   His ability to impact the season, however, will be with his bat.   His glove can't break out but his bat can and, if it does, he is immediately an above-average (or well above replacement, if you will) major league thirdbaseman. 

For these first three guys, them breaking out also gives us trade chips IF we decide to go the trade route come July.

Erik Gonzalez - He can hit a little and is a good fielder.   Guys like that (I think of Jose Oquendo of the Cardinals) are much more valuable in the utility role than they are as a trade chip.   Even if he breaks out this year with his bat you have to keep this guy on your team as he instantly becomes an average-to-above-average major leaguer at 2B and SS and OK as an emergency guy at 3B and in the OF.   Frankly, in the 7th game of the WS, down to my last out, I would rather have Gonzalez up at the plate than Michael Martinez.  That's all that needs to be said here.   Plus, I think his trade value doesn't even become high enough if he shows hitting improvement unless a potential trading partner very much overvalues him.   He is the classic guy who becomes a piece of a trade (but not the centerpiece) and then breaks out.   He needs to stay here and, by August, be our utility guy.   As a utility guy, he can have only a small impact so that is why I see him not being very impactful this year.  Now, if Lindor goes down with an injury early, then Gonzalez will likely be the most impactful prospect this year for the Indians, no matter what the other guys on this list do.

Kyle Crockett - People don't mention him but he could play a crucial role this year if Miller or Logan are shelved for any length of time.   He appears to be getting how to pitch in the majors.   Time will tell.

Joseph Colon - The biggest flash-in-the-pan candidate, I think he has no impact on our season.   Yet, he could still help out for a few games if he gets it together in Columbus.  He obviously worked hard to get to the majors in the first place so there is some hope.

Mike Clevinger - I think he needs another full season in AAA.   If he impacts the team this year it will be as a reliever and that is a decision that can be made in August.  Otherwise, unless we REALLY need him to relieve, he should spend the entire season in AAA and get a late August/September callup with a chance to relieve in the playoffs, if needed. 

Adam Plutko - He is a depth guy for the rotation.   He will give you a chance to win most nights out and he should make some meaningful starts in Cleveland this year unless we are extremely lucky.   That being said, if he steps up, he could be #2 behind Zimmer as the prospect most likely to make a significant impact on the Tribe this year. 

Ryan Merritt - He is another depth starter who can make a positive impact if some starters go down.   I just don't know if his stuff can hold up through a major part of the season in Cleveland.  

Shawn Morimando - Here is the sleeper for breakout guy of the year.   He knows what he has to work on and it is all mechanical.   It is these guys who only need tweaks or to develop a gimick who have the largest chance of breakout success.  If Morimando learns his lessons well you might see a jump in his prospect status to the point where he can mega-help the Indians this year. 

Greg Allen - I think he is a year away from impacting the Indians and, even at that, he might only have a minor impact.  Still, if he does break out he might be brought up as an extra outfielder and even make the playoff roster as a PR/defensive replacement. 

That is really it.   Guys like Julian Merryweather, Cameron Hill, Rob Kaminsky, Nellie Rodriguez, Perci Garner and even long shots to make an impact like Mike Papi (another "and then a miracle happens" guy), Louis Head, Nick Pasquale, Michael Peoples, and others might make token, yet valuable (see Ryan Merritt last year) appearances this year, but they will not likely impact the team either because of their limited experience, abilities or lack of an opportunity as guys are stacked up ahead of them on the depth charts. 

Two weeks left...

...and we are still looking for roster answers.

While most of the minor leaguers have been sent down at this point and a few of the ones who remain in camp are here because they are the first in line, and fungible assets, in case guys who have the 25 man roster made are getting hurt.   However, a few guys are making it hard to make decisions:

• Austin Jackson has been firing on all cylinders
• Tyler Naquin is, too....when his body is working
• With Kipnis out we need one more infielder for April.   Gonzalez is a stud defensively but will he hit more than Urshela, who is also a stud defensively?  Will Shaffer be kept just because he is a veteran presence?  And what about Yandy Diaz?   Will he be this year's Naquin who hits his way onto the club and into a starting role due to a major injury (Kipnis)?
• The bullpen looked shaky for a period of time but now it is looking good and it is looking set as Shawn Armstrong is still here and a slew of minor league invitees have been sent out. 
• The starters look OK except for Carrasco and he could be hidden as a 5th starter for a week or two...maybe even sent to the minors on a 'rehab' while we only need 4 starters.  Our depth at AAA took a hit with Cooney going down and Anderson now being sidelined for the season.   Still, the starting pitching looks solid.
• Plus, will Brantley be ready or will he open the season on the DL and we start with Naquin, Chisenhall, Guyer, Jackson and Almonte?  If Brantley is healthy, the way things are going I see Naquin as the odd man out but it could be Jackson or Almonte as the former is on a minor league deal and I don't think Almonte makes a huge difference on this team. 

If we stay healthy we look good and deep.  Those are two things every major league team is looking for at this point and few find it.   If we just stay healthy we have it locked down. 

Not a lot of earth shattering news here but having your roster in place a week or two before the season starts certainly helps out but things can still happen so we'll see what the next two weeks bring.   

An open letter to Tito about our bullpen

Dear Mr. Manager,

I commend you on your novel approach to the bullpen during the playoffs last year.   Inspiration born out of desperation.   It was a great ride.

That being said, that was then and this is now.   In the wake of last post-season a whole bunch of questions come to mind about the effect last year's strategy will have on this year's pitching staff.   You have already addressed this with bringing along some of our veteran pitchers slowly this year, especially those who had a heavier than normal workload last post-season.

However, maybe there is a novel idea I thought of that can be done to save the pitching staff this year.   Here is my idea:

1. Make Clevinger the 5th starter
2. Move Josh Tomlin to the bullpen, taking what would have been Shawn Armstrong's spot
3. Use McAllister and Tomlin to rest your relievers and maybe shorten games.

Here is how this might work:

1. Starters go 6 innings
2. McAllister or Tomlin pitch the 7th AND 8th, meaning we don't have to use our setup men as often
3. Closer finishes

That would mean about 4 times a week we might not need a setup man or even a 7th inning man, meaning we can save Shaw, Miller and Allen a little work and shorten the game for the starters.  The rest of the bullpen, that is Logan and Otero, fill in where necessary (say in Tomlin's second inning a couple of lefties come up or maybe the first two guys in his first inning of work are lefties).   Otero can finish innings where Logan has to be brought in to replace Tomlin or McAllister and work some in losses, as well.  Tomlin has been very effective in a long relief role in the past and, from where I sit, looks like he struggles and is susceptible to injury only when we continuously change his role.   If his set role is two innings twice a week, I think he will thrive again.   As McAllister is already being stretched out to throw 2-3 innings an outing, it seems to fit for him, as well.

If Clevinger fails we have Merritt, Plutko and, hopefully, others (Cooney, Morimando and, hopefully, Kaminsky) in Columbus who can come up to make a spot start or take over the #5 role. 

Just some thoughts for a manager (you) who is obviously open to doing things a different way.

Needed right handed setup man...got nothing

OK, this speech is getting old,  I know.   But here is the Indians' bullpen

Closer: Cody Allen
Setup righty: Bryan Shaw (most used reliever in baseball the last 3 years)
Setup lefty: Andrew Miller (used very hard last year and playing in WBC, not a good combination)
6th inning righty: Dan Otero
LOOGY: Boone Logan
Long man: Zack McAllister
6th inning righty: Shawn Armstrong

Guys in the minors:

Non-roster invitees: Travis Barnwart, Steve Delabar, Tyler Olson, James Russell, Josh Martin, Chris Narveson

Perci Garner - potential flash in the pan candidate
Joseph Colon - came out of nowhere to play in the majors last year
Nick Goody - picked up on waivers
Kyle Crockett - not a lot of success in the big leagues
Hoby Milner - Rule 5 guy who we will probably lose now that we have Logan.

Minor league starters who might be used in the bullpen: Mike Clevinger, Carlos Frias.

Look, none of these other options is really anything more than an emergency, we need a warm body option.   If any of these guys pitch significant innings out of the Indians bullpen the bullpen is in trouble.   And, mark my words, 1-3 of these guys will pitch significant innings.

BOTTOM LINE: We have a very good bullpen that is among the most thin in baseball. One injury and we start dipping into guys who probably aren't good enough to be effective in the majors.  Heck, Armstrong is iffy, to me, and he has this team made.  After that....   We needed one more solid reliever, but we let all those guys get snatched up.   The worst loss was Joe Blanton, not only for his ability but for his price, who is signing with the Nationals.   He got a $4 million deal with $3 million of that deferred ($1 million in 2018 and $2 million in 2019).   Basically, this guy, the Nats got a $1 million reliever with a two years history of really good success as a setup guy.   Not a happy day for me and a day I am almost positive the Indians are going to regret. 

the 'lost' prospects - early thoughts

Yeah, I thought early retirement would bring lots of trips to Indians' spring training.   Two years in and with kids still at home  it hasn't worked out that way.   Since the only way I see spring break in Arizona happening would be the unthinkable of California falling into the Pacific and Phoenix becoming the new San Diego, I can only watch from afar and ask some questions.

Anyone who knows me knows that I am a prospect guy. So I thought today we would talk about the 'lost' prospects.   That is, guys who have the potential for becoming good prospects but who have been derailed by injuries or poor performance but who still have a chance.

So here are some guys to keep an eye on as the minor league spring training camp opens.   Any or all of these guys could break out this year as they have the pedigrees to do much more than they have done previously. 

Luke Wakamatsu - Non-Latin middle infield prospects are a rarity.  Wakamatsu grades out as a plus defender.   Drafted in 2015 he spent most of last year injured and so has lots to make up this year, although he did get some ABs at MV last year.   If he is healthy, he could start to make some waves this year.  The Indians tend to aggressively push their prospects so while he is likely to stay in extended spring training for a while, starting out the season at Lake County is not out of the question.

Jonas Wyatt - A 6th round pick in 2015, he had TJ surgery last June and so is likely to spend the spring in extended spring training.   TJ surgery is bad anytime as it sets back a player's development for a year, but his timetable is actually perfect to start his playing season in June with the AZL Indians.  It will be interesting to see if he can advance to Mahoning Valley during the season or if he needs the whole summer to get his pitching back on track. 

Ka'ai Tom - Didn't play much last year due to injury but clearly is on the Indians radar.  He may just be a good career minor leaguer but he has some upside.  Think somewhere between Greg Allen and Gabriel Mejia.  He should start the season with Lynchburg this year as the Indians push him to catch up with his draft class and, if he starts strong, look for a promotion to Akron in the second half of the season.   I see him as no more than a potential ML 4th outfielder now but he still has at least that upside to me.

Dace Kime - Realizing that he might not even make it out of spring training this year without getting cut, Kime is a guy who still intrigues me as a reliever.   He has been dangerously wild, almost to the point that you can't believe he actually pitched at a major college (Louisville) let alone effectively.  He has regressed almost each year since he was drafted in 2013.   The Indians may have made a mistake putting him in the rotation when they could have easily fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever.  His professional baseball career may be over but, for me, he is still one helluva intriguing prospect if he can ever put it all together.

Justin Garza - The 2015 version drafted out of Cal State Fullerton.   He was a top 100 college prospect entering his junior year at Fullerton but hurt his elbow and had TJ surgery late in the year, allowing the Indians to 'steal' him in the 8th round.   The Indians have a history of rehabbing college pitches they steal in the draft (see Vinnie Pestano for example).   Garza dipped his toe in the water last year with the AZL Indians.   He was a little wild which is typical of the first post-TJ surgery year.   This year his is poised to pitch on a full season team although the Indians may hold him in extended spring training for a month or so until the weather warms up.   Either way, he is one of my picks as a breakout prospect this year.   His stuff and experience tells me that, if healthy, he should dominate at Lake County or hold his own at Lynchburg.   Either way he should open some eyes and get into the top 30 Indians' prospects this coming winter.   It might also mean that we could have to invoke his middle initial to distinguish Justin C. Garza from the Indians other Justin Garza, who would then be known as, well, just Justin Garza.   The later Justin Garza pitched relatively effectively at Lynchburg last year so it is likely that both Justin Garzas will play this year. 

Grant Hockin - Hockin was drafted in 2014, had TJ surgery and didn't play in 2015 and didn't play last year.  He was on the instructional league roster last fall so maybe his re-debut will be this year.  I thought I heard he had considered retirement but I couldn't verify if he was still with the Indians.   Given his pedigree (2nd round pick, related to Harmon Killebrew), if he is still playing and healthy he is a potential breakout prospect this year and, given his time off and his assignment to the instructional league last year, is a dark horse candidate to make the Lake County roster out of spring training.  Hockin just getting in a complete, healthy season will be a big plus. 

OK, we're in February, but that won't stop me...first look at how the season might go

Tito has already been quoted as saying the season could go two ways.   Make that 250 ways, Mr. manager.

He knows that, we all know that, but the point is clear as is the question: what will last year do to this year.

Using the Cavs as an example, they rode Kevin Love's and Kyrie Irving's injury to the NBA finals in 2015, actually and unlikely, winning two games from the Warriors.     Did they use that in 2016 when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the whole thing?  I think so.   Don't know so but I think so.  

If the Indians do the same thing it will be a very powerful force this year.   It will be that way for two reasons:

1. Because no team is without injuries.   St. Louis has already lost probably the brightest pitching prospect and a guy who likely would have slotted into #3 in their rotation, Alex Reyes, to TJ surgery before the first full team workout.    Injuries happen and most teams can't stockpile enough talent to totally overcome those injuries.    The Indians learned last year that they can win without their entire team being healthy and, given how frequently injuries happen, that was a good lesson. 

2. The Indians are thin offensively but, nevertheless, strong on paper in their starting lineup.   If Brantley comes back at full strength, playing like he did before the shoulder injury, this should make the team feel even better about itself.   Winning games isn't all about pitching or all about hitting or all about defense.  The Indians have the combination of talent to win with pitching one night and hitting the next.   That will be important if we have pitching injuries and have to rely on young guys.

3. The season is a grind.   As LeBron and company are finding out, you have to find different ways to win depending on your team situation that day.   Different guys have to step up.   The Indians are set to be able to do that.   They really need only two things: a shut down righthanded reliever now, and a 3B or OF bat in July.   They could get hurt if they have a lot of injuries but this team is set to compete over the season in a situation where the season would become a grind.

4.  Some fans are worried about a let down after last year or that it was just a mirage that can't be sustained.   Such is true with the bookies, as well.   What no one is talking about is that there are likely to be guys who break out this year.    I would love to see guys like Trevor Bauer and Bradley Zimmer break out and Yan Gomes return to his form of a few years ago.  I would love to add Brantley's bat back to this lineup.   As we look at this season we can't be thinking that we are talking about the WS team plus Carrasco and Salazar and substituting Encarnacion for Napoli and Davis.   I think it could be much more than that and, in my heart, I feel it will be much more than that.    

5. The ONLY thing I see going wrong with the Indians this season is post-season cockiness.   What do I mean by that?  I think the 1996 Indians were a perfect example.   I don't think they thought they could be beaten in the AL playoffs but they were.   If we make it to the playoffs is where we have to turn up the heat.   Again, using the Cavaliers example, they know that losing some regular season games happens but that they are really preparing for the playoffs.    The Indians need to adopt that mentality.   They have to battle through the regular season and focus on turning it up in the playoffs.  No post-season cockiness, please!   I don't see that happening with this group but, to me, it is the biggest fear I have going into the Indians' season.   I am counting on Tito to take care of preparing his team for both the regular season and, if we get there, the playoffs, too.

So, my bet is for Tito to do what he does and manage this team to win no matter what the cards are that he is dealt.   I think they make the playoffs again and if things fall right for them they make it back to the WS again.   Once you get to the Series it is how things break for you.  I believe in Tito and I believe in this team and I believe they can win the series this year.    Let's go Tribe!