Time for a frank discussion about our prospects

 In preparation for my opening day top prospect list, I wanted to have a frank discussion about our prospects.  It is also important as, if I suspect, the Indians are about to go for it and trade a bunch of our prospecdts to bring in a seasoned ML outfielder and a bullpen piece.  So, with that in mind, let's start.

1. GABRIEL ARIAS - Arias is an uber prospect in this organization.   He WILL be a major leaguer and a successful one.  The question is, does he fit what this organization needs going forward.  In my opinion he is going to outgrow shortstop and be a 3rd baseman in the future.  He is already, at 22 years old, listed as 6'1", 207 lbs.  He does not steal bases, he does not walk that often and his strikeouts are on the upper end of what you would want for a good fielding shortstop.    I just don't think he is going to project as a high range, slick fielding shortstop going forward.  To me his future position is third base and that is important.  If I told you that it would take a couple of years but Arias, by 2024, would be Jose Ramirez part deux, would you be willing to let Ramirez go and gamble on Arias>?  That is the key, really.  Will Gabvriel Arias be playing WITH Jose Ramirez or INSTEAD of Jose Ramirez?  If it is the former I am all in with finding him the best position (maybe the OF or even 1B?).  If it is the latter then I say use Arias as trade bait as, being a SS, he looks better than  think he will turn out to be.

2. GEORGE VALERA - One of the most interesting things in spring training is playing Valera in centerfield.  If he can make that adjustment his value goes up.  Bujt that is the key.   Why do we want his value to go up?  He clearly is blocked for years n Cleveland by Myles Straw?  I think they are looking at Valera as trade bait that I don't agree with.  Valera should stay and we ride that hoss until he reaches free agency.   But maybe the Indians coaches and anaylitic people see him as not beng that good as a major leaguer.

3.TYLER FREEMAN - Look, despite the shoulder injury, Tyler Freeman is going to be a major leaguer.   He just hits too well.   Given his lack of power, lsck of plate discipline and lack of speed his ability, based on his offense, to play any position but SS in the major leagues, I think he is currently a tweener.   So with Freeman we have a guy who is currently damaged goods who, even if you don't consider that, might be considered an average major leaguer at best who will only be a good to exceptional major leaguer if his offensive projection includes a big bump in power.   Hey, the guy could turn into Craig Biggio, which is my upside projection for him.  However, his trade value right now, given his tangibles, is much less.  So I keep him and start looking at him solely at 2B and CF (or maybe catcher?!?!).

4. DANIEL ESPINO - Right now Espino is hot.   He might never have much more trade value than he does right now.   When he was drafted there were rumblings that his short frame and arm action might make him a better fit as a reliever, especially with that fastball.  Since then I don't see a lot of change in that and I view him with Clase upside.  As a starter I think he gets hit way too much even with his elite FB.  But, nonetheless, I see him as, far and away, the best prospect in this organization in terms of projecdtability as I see him as an elite closer in the future.  So if I can get elite value for him I definitely consider trading him.  Otherwise, I keep him and start developing him as a reliever.

5. NOLAN JONES - Here is our minor league version of Josh Naylor.   He is a guy who has shown only mediocre stats so far with the projection of more but not the reality.   Jones, to me, is close to being a bust but now has his clock extended by his injury.   He has no many warts to his offensive game that I don't see his value as very high.   He would be window dressing on a trade by a team that wants to do a salary dump or is looking to dump a guy who they know they can't sign long-term.

6. BRAYAN ROCCHIO - I love Rocchio's game.  He has projectability and makes the trading of Arias and/or Freeman more palatable.  I see right now that he has more value to Cleveland than he would in a trade so that is normally my measure if I want to use a guy as trade bait or keep him to see if his value increases this year.

7. OTHER PROSPECTS - We have several prospects who could be trade bait: Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, Gavin Williams, Bo Naylor, Logan T. Allen and others who could be thrown into a trade package.  I am all for these guys being used in trades if we think their current value is higher than their projection.  However, I don't want any more Junior Caminero for Tobias Meyers (who was going to be DFA'd) trades.   Prospects are our lifeblood in Cleveland and if you get value for one you trade him.   However, the Meyers trade is, to me, an example of how a team has an excess of prospects and start to lose respect for a guy based on where he is on THEIR list of prospects instead of where his prospect worth actually is.   So, please.  No stupid trades where we give up more than we get back just because we have an excess of prospects.   The art of the trade is an important part of a team like the Guardians and we need to Guardians of our prospect wealth, spending it only when we make sense.

28-man roster Post #2

The only real changes to the roster or potential roster is that both Arias and Palacios were sent down to the minors and Josh Naylor is actually playing in a major league game.  These new developments will impact the 28-man roster.  Naylor looks like he could be on the 28-man roster and the Arias demotion gives a better chance that Owen Miller will make the roster.  We are seeing Rosario in LF which meshes with players still on our roster.  Miller and Clement have looked good.  Brian Shaw looked good in his first two outings, solidifying at least one spot in the bullpen

Knock on wood, there have been no major injuries, especially to our ML pitching staff, outside of  Cody Morris.   No pitchers expected to make the major league team have been so bad their spots are in jeopardy at this point.  Borderline guys like Tobias Myers and Sam Hentges have looked very rough and Konnor Pilkington has been sent down.  Nick Sandlin might not be ready on opening day.  

In terms of players on the bubble, Zimmer did not help his cause and Mercado did not help his cause significantly, in my opinion.  

So the position player roster, likely to be 13 players, looks like this

Catcher (2): Hedges and Leon

Infielders (6): Ramirez, Bradley, Chang, Gimenez, Miller, Clement

Outfielders (5): Straw, Rosario, Kwan, Naylor, Reyes

As far as our likely-to-be 15 man pitching staff, here is how it looks right now

Starting pitchers (5): Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, McKenzie

Relievers (6): Clase, Logan Allen (the elder), Shaw, Gose, Morgan, Stephan, 

Relievers on the bubble who are on the 40-man roster (2): Hentges, Meyers

Relievers on the bubble who are not on the 40 man roster (5): Alex Young, Enyel De Los Santos, Justin Garza, Rober Broom, Nick Mikolajchak

Now comes the difficult part.  Here are the relevant points:

• Mercado and Zimmer should be gone.   Getting rid of them creates two 40-man roster spots
• We need a backup catcher.   Maile will be on the IL.   If he is not on the the 60-day DL we will have to either use Lavastida as the backup or add Leon to the 40-man, meaning one of the 40-man spots we get by removing Zimmer and Mercado will be wasted.   As this is likely to be a short-term replacement, the only option I see is Lavastida.  We will need the two roster spots for relievers.
• Karinchak and Sandlin are unlikely to be on the roster and will likely open the season on the 10-day IL.  

 So we need 4 relievers and we have 2 40-man roster spots to play with.  So we can pick 2 relievers from the non-roster guys if we keep Hentges and Meyers in the majors.   If we want to add any more relievers from non-rostered players Meyers and/or Hentges will have to be DFA'd.   The final thing to consider if the Guardians know that Karinchak and Sandlin will be coming off the IL very soon, the relievers you want to add from the non-rostered players are guys who you aren't afraid to DFA to make room for Karinchak and Sandlin.

The key for this season, with our current 40-man roster situation, is that guys added to the 40-man roster will likely have to result in another guy beng DFA'd in a 1-for-1 basis (e.g., Karinchak comes back and Young gets DFA'd.  Sandlin comes back and maybe Meyers or de los Santos gets removed)  This crunch will be relieved if we make trades where multiple guys from our 40-man roster leave and less guys who have to be the 40-man roster come back to the Guardians.  

Time will tell.

Looking at Kansas City's roster...we're screwed

 In the best scenario there is no way that we can compete offensively with Kansas City.

Whit Merrifield

Bobby Witt, Jr.

Salvador Perez

Andrew Benintendi

Carlos Santana

Hunter Dozier

Aldeberto Mondesi

Michael Taylor

Nicky Lopez

As we can see today this group can hit.

How can we compete when we have a lineup of

Straw

Rosario

Ramirez

Reyes

Bradley

Chang

Gimenez

Kwan

Hedges

There is no way.  When you add that to our bullpen problems and that our starters look shaky with a number of them coming off injury, this is a big concern at this point when you compare us to what is supposed to be the worst team in our division, the Royals.

It is not like the Royals have a flash in the pan offense.   These guys are mostly veterans compared to our guys.   

28-man roster post #1

 OK, so this is probably not the ACTUAL post #1 but let's just draw a line in the sand and say it is. 

Here are the realities of our 28 man roster in light of our 40-man roster.  

• Both Zimmer and Mercado have to be traded or DFA'd.  Neither should be on our 28-man roster.   They are simply not good enough and have not improved at all from recent years.  We need their roster spots to add relief pitchers who can go more than one inning if need be.
• We cannot afford to have guys on the 10-day DL  
• Maile has to be DFA'd if he can't go or we have to brng up Lavastida.  We simply have no room to add Leon if Maile is taking up a 40 man roster spot.
• Having Karnchak and/or Sandlin on the 10 day DL means we have two relievers on our 40- man who are clogging up roster space but are not being part of the team.   We simply can't afford that so we need to look at putting these guys on the 60-day DL if they aren't ready by opening day.
• The above applies for injury situations that arse between now and opening day.  We simply cannot afford to clog a 40-man roster spot who can't go on opening day.
• Amed Rosario has to move to left field now.  We have too many infielders on the 40 man and not enough outfielders.  Kwan and Palacios have to make the opening day roster because they are on the 40-man.  This would give us 4 outfielders: Straw, Kwan, Rosario and Palacios

Plus, none of this touches on how poorly this organization did this winter getting us minor league free agent pitchers or signing more ML free agent relief pitchers or even ML free agent relief pitchers.  

Folks, the problem is not that we had 11 prospects added to our 40-man roster this off-season.  It is that we did not plan well enough to leave roster space for more pitchers and we did not give ourselves enough options in the minors for relief pitching.

I have seen enough! Here are the positions players on our opening day 28-man roster

 The pitching staff will be another story as we clearly don't have enough pitchers to fill out a 15-man pitching staff.

But the position player decisions are, in my mind, done.  We are good to go.  Here's the opening day roster with comments.  Note that this roster can change with injuries or trades?

Catchers (2) - Hedges and Maile (or Leon, if Maile is on the 60-day)

Infielders (6) - Bradley, Chang, Ramirez, Clement, Gimenez, Arias

Outfielders (5) - Straw, Kwan, Palacios, Reyes, Rosario

DL - Naylor and maybe Maile

DFA'd or traded:  Zimmer, Mercado

Sent to the minors: Lavastida, Freeman, Jones, Miller, Noel, Rocchio, Tena, Valera

Comments:  I am done with Zimmer and Mercado.  They look the same.   I would rather have Kwan and Palacios out there.  My roster has Miller in the minors as he doesn't look that strong to me.  I don't particularly like Maile as the backup but he is what he is.   I like Leon better but who cares.   Note that I have Rosario in the outfield.   I can't see doing anything else with all the infielders we have and the outfielders suck.  

Now that this is out of the way let's worry about the pitching staff.

Joc Pederson - Kiss my Warren Spahn glove

I thought the MLBPA association had reached the height of absurdity when Max Scherzer was pushing for a salary floor for teams.  His words gave away his real intent: artificially create a situation where teams would have to pay mediocre players inflated salaries.

3 1/2 months later here comes Joc Pederson, throwing the Guardians, Orioles and Pirates under the bus.  Whereas Scherzer has some street cred based on his ability, Pederson's comments are really self-serving as he IS one of those mediocre players who would be helped by a salary floor.   

But the question to Mr. Pederson is why, if your team sucks, would you waste money on mediocre players who will not really change the narrative of your season.   

I agree that the Indians are not spending money as they should if you look below at the bad position we are currently in relative to our relievers and pitching staff, in general.

However, for a hanger-on like Pederson to make comments like this are embarassingly self-serving and not appropriate.  The Guardians organization has continued to produce winning teams with that low payroll and are near the top in developing prospects.   Have they made mistakes this winter that better spending would have helped?   Yes, absolutely.   But their winning has been accomplished without overspending on mediocre players.

Thoughts for a Thursday morning on the left coast

 First, the Guardians and all teams in the majors will be able to have a 28-person active roster for the month of April.   The issue, if you want to call it an issue, is that this means, in theory, you can have up to 15 pitchers on that roster.   The issue for teams, and this especially applies to the Guardians, is that you have to have two things to make this work:

(1)  15 pitchers on your 40 man roster

(2) 15 pitchers on your 40-man roster who are actually anywhere close to being ready to pitch in the majors.

With the news that the Indians have signed Bryan Shaw also comes the news that to get him on the roster the Indians will put Cody Morris on the 60-day DL.  So, instead of two pitchers who might be available for the ML roster coming out of spring training we have just swapped one for another one.  

So we are still short of pitchers for our major league team coming out of spring training.  Here is a list of our available pitchers with commentary:

1. Logan Allen (the elder):  Looked very shaky in his first outing after a shaky 2021

2. Shane Beiber: Looked very shaky in his first outing after missing most of 2021.

3. Aaron Civale: No negative news here but missed a lot of time in 2021

4. Emmanuel Clase: Only solid reliever available

5. Anthony Gose: Very little ML experience but being counted on to make our pitching staff

6. Sam Hentges: Shaky last year and in his first spring training appearance.  Being counted on to make the bullpen.

7. James Karinchak: Shaky last year and shut down already due to arm problem

8. Triston McKenzie: Healthy and looked good in his first outing

9. Eli Morgan: Looked good in his first outing

10.  Cody Morris: on 60-day DL

11. Tobias Myers: Rookie, never pitched in the majors.  Beng counted on to make the team out of spring training

12.Konnor Pilkington: Rookie, never pitched above AA.

13. Zach Plesac:  Looked OK in his first outing

14. Cal Quantrill

15. Nick Sandlin:  Injured at the end of last year

16. Bryan Shaw: Late to spring training but being counted on in this year's bullpen

16, Trevor Stepha: Being counted on to be in this year's bullpen.

17. Carlos Vargas - On 60 day DL

So, for 15 spots we have 15 pitchers.  Of those only 7 are not looking questionable at this point.

We are in trouble, people and most of the good, inexpensive free agent pitchers have already been signed.  In addition to that there is very little fluff on the 40 man roster if you wanted to DFA someone to add a reliever.   Here are the expendable guys I see:

Logan Allen (the elder)
Owen Miller

Oscar Mercado

Bradley Zimmer

Ernie Clement

Yu Chang

With most of the good major league free agent relievers already signed, who on this group would you cut to bring in a bunch of third and fourth tier relievers.  Frankly, I wouldn't cut or trade any of those guys to clear roster space for any pathetic reliever like Andrew Young, who has looked pathetic this spring, too.

And when the Guardians or their fans say that this is due to having to protect all these prospects from the Rule 5 this winter, tell them that most of the guys on the above list of expendables could have been lost if they signed or traded for a QUALITY reliever.