Early season top prospects list

 The Guardians are struggling at the major league level right now so let's do what us older fans have been trained to do during the bad years of the 70s, 80s and early 90s...look at our prospects and dream.

So, after watching MiLB games every day, looking over box scores and reading about the progress of our prospects I have compiled a list.   This list only includes players who will likely retain their prospect status during the year (thus the omission of Steven Kwan but not Richie Palacios) and are currently on a full-season minor league team or in the majors likely to return to the minors without losing their prospect status.   Thus players currently in extended spring training or on the Dominican summer league team roster for the Guardians are not included.

So, here goes:

1. Daniel Espino - Here is a guy that has to be pushing the top 20 prospects in all of baseball at this point.  The only knock on him and the only reason I see him maintaining his prospect eligibility this season is that does seem to have the penchant to give up hard contact.  He needs to develop another off-speed pitch to eliminae that and, until he does, he could get hit around pretty good in the majors as we would be burning hiis pre-arbitration years without a lot of return in performance.

2. George Valera -  Breaking out of his early season slump has helped my confidence that he belongs this high.   Still, I have concerns when I watch how his swing seems to break down at times.   Lots to like about this guy but he could go all the way from all-star to bust in terms of his future development.  Now I know every prospect has that possibility but not generally one that is rated this highly.

3. Gabriel Arias - There is a long way between Espino and Arias in terms of projection.   Now, is it possible that Arias becomes Jose Ramirez Part deux?  Maybe.  However, right now, he just looks like Amed Rosario with better fielding.   Not bad but not really perennial all-star level.

4. Tyler Freeman - Looks like he is shaking off the rust a little bit and I really like him but he is a second baseman in this system.   While he will hit, will he hit to the tune of .300 BA, .370 OBP, 30 2B, 17 HR 15 SB level we would like to see from an offensive-first second baseman?  Time will tell.

5. Brayan Rocchio - His numbers don't show it but he seems to be a very polished young player.  If he can pump up the steepness of his improvement curve a little bit he could be a great addition, or trade chip, down the road.  Right now he is scuffling but I don't see it as a long-term thing.

6. Gavin Williams - OK, I am on the bandwagon.   I know he is only facing A ball hitters but he is dominating as you would expect from a guy who deserves a promotion.  When, hopefully, he gets promoted if he continues with any semblance of a 3.00 1.2 K/IP guy at AA, then we can start dreaming on his potential as a front of rotation starter.

7. Milan Tolentino - He just looks so damn good for having been drafted as a HS hitter.   He is supposed to be a defense first guy whose bat is questionable but so far, maybe it is just the opposite.  

8  Logan T. Allen - I would have had him at #4 after the first few weeks but his performance has started to level out and I think this is a good place for him.  He is in line with the stuff that Biever, Plesac and Civale have and he becomes a little more like McKenzie and Quantrill we may have another solide mid-rotation starter for years to come.

9. Jonkensey Noel - I have always liked this guy more than the scouts.  I see him as a power-hitting outfielder with some control of the strikezone.  His early season performance has been uneven but I see him picking it up in the second half of the season to put up huge numbers.

10.  Bo Naylor - He is repeating AA and so you would expect his numbers to get noticeably better than last year but he looks good at the plate.  Plus, his defense appears to be very good, at least to my eyes.

11. Oscar Gonzalez - I get that it looks like I am jumping on the bandwagon here but the guy is 24 years old.  In his first ML game he showed a plus arm, plus speed, good use of the entire field as a hitter, obviously excellent power and decent defense.  The only thing he doesn't have is the ability to take a walk and, up to this year, a too-high strikeout rate.  Three plus tools and too average tools.   This doesn't look like an after-thought prospect.  He looks really good AND he looks like he has jumped on to the steep part of his learning vs time curve and has done it with hard work.  At least that is my impression.  

12. Hunter Gaddis - Look, he shouldn't stand out from higher rated. higher drafted prospects like Nikhazy, Mace, Battenfield, Pilkington, Burns, but the guy is putting up numbers at AA and he was throwing 96-97 mph late in the game of a recent start in which he also dominated.   His height with his stuff throwing 97 mph late into a game gives him a lot of street cred with me.  

13.  Nolan Jones - We don't really know what we have with him but he could be done really soon if he doesn't start to pick it up.   Looking at his numbers he doesn't stand out.  Let's hope this is his turnaround year.  

14. Will Brennan - He gets a lot of credit from me just based on his production.  If you can hit with some gap power and play good CF defense you have a spot.

From here on out it is a crapshoot.   We have lots of good prospects but none of them stand out to me.  So the next set of guys could be ranked anywhere from 15-30 in my mind.  

Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, Tanner Burns, Bryan Lavastida, Petey Halpin, Cody Morris, Carson Tucker, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, Ethan Hankins, Jake Fox, Isaiah Greene, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Vargas, Joey Cantillo, Tommy Mace

After that we have a number of guys who can probably have a bump in production but have yet to break out to the point where they can be considered real prospects:

Doug Nikhazy, Xzvaion Curry, Gabriel Rodriguez, Nik Mikolajchak, Will Benson, Kirk McCarty, Konor Pilkington, Josh Wolf, Lenny Torres, Dayan Frias, Jose Ferman, Luis Durango, Joe Naranjo

Plus a number of minor league relievers with good stats:

Nick Mikolajchak, Andrew Mislaszek, Nic Enright, Kevin Kelly, Ben Krauth, Tim Herrin, Will Dion, Jerson Ramirez.

Oscar Gonzalez

 Over the past couple of years I have watched Gonzalez play.   I knew we was not a highly rated prospect and I understood the reasons why.

Still, watching him this year I saw a real difference in him.   Yeah, there was the usual power and the strong arm in right field.

But some of the things that kept him from being considered an elite prospect seemed to be disappearing.

• He never, to me, showed good speed but this year I saw him leg out some hits for Columbus that reminded me of the speed I see from Amed Rosario and Myles Straw.   But that couldn't be, right?  Well tonight they timed him going to first base in what was defined as close to elite speed.
• He never took many walks but at least this year at Columbus he was seeing more pitches than he had in the past.   This was borne out tonight as he worked pretty deep into counts, at least a lot deeper than earlier years.  Plus, in his major league debut he didn't strike out.  
• In Columbus he seemed to be trying to use the whole field as a hitter this year, maybe too much.  But tonight he got a hit to center and one to right.  When power hitters use the whole field they make themselves more of a weapon, not becoming an all or nothing guy.  
• He showed elite bat speed with his first ML hit leaving his bat at 113 mph.  In fact, in the game he hit 3 of the top 5 hardest hit balls.  That is impressive for a rookie who was not highly touted as a prospect AND in his first major league game.
• His OF defense was always suspect but in Columbus this year he looked better and he made a good running catch with the bases loaded early in the game.

There are 5 tools for a position player in baseball.  Tonight Gonzalez showed all of them to some degree.  That, to me, is a true elite prospect.  And you know what?  From this observer's vantage point, he is much improved all year in 2022, not just in this game.  The improvement, to me, is in some cases amazing, especially his apparent increase in foot speed.  The fact that he is using the whole field more as a hitter in addition to his improved defense and increase in foot speed shows to me that he is taking coaching very well and is doing what he needs to do to improve as a player.  

I think this guy could, given his current upward trajectory, become a lot more than the after thought prospect that a lot of these prospect 'experts' think he could be.   I wasn't sure before but I am now.  As scouts say, if you see it once it is in there.  What we saw tonight should show all the prospect experts that Gonzalez can be an elite prospect.   He already had the power and t appears he has done a lot of work to fill in the question marks in his game.  Tonight reinforced for me that he is working hard to fill in the holes in his game.  Will he ever be a great ML player?  Not until he learns to take more walks.   But given the other progresses he has made in his game in the past two seasons, I can clearly see how the lack of walks thing could disappear in another year or so.  

Wouldn't that be amazing if it did!

Tobias Myers: Have we seen this trade before

 More than a few of us were rolling our eyes and scratching our heads when the Guardians added a guy to their 40-man over the winter who had been DFA'd by Tampa Bay.  With the 40 man roster crunch (we didn't have a space for Oscar Gonzalez and we probably needed a veteran reliever or two) it seemed odd to add a guy like Myers but, you know, the Indians are great at developing pitchers.

Well, spring training went by and I wasn't impressed.

Early into the season, given the results at Columbus, I am not impressed.  The guy just looks bad.  Like minor league free agent bad.  

Which brings us to the other part the trade, the player the Indians gave up.   I admit I didn't know anything about Caminero before he signed with the Indians/Guardians.   But looking at his stats last year was eye-opening.   Look, guys just don't hit 9 HRs in the DSL.   These guys are young, not physically mature yet and need to learn to play.   As has been said, power develops later in a career.  They don't hit 9 HRs at 17 years old.

Then it occurred to me.  Was this deja vu all over again?  The following line from Baseball Reference should be burned in the brains of all long-time, die-hard Indians/Guardians fans:

April 3, 1974: [Bruce Ellingsen] traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Cleveland Indians for Pedro Guerrero.

Yes, in one the absolutely worst trades in Indians' history, Bruce Ellingsen came to the Indians for a future all-star.   Ellingsen appeared in 16 games for the Indians that season and then never pitched in the majors again.  

Guerrero, who only hit 2 HR and ..255 in his DSL debut at 17, didn't here as many as 9 until 1975, didn't make a big impact in the majors until 1981.  Still, the similarities are very striking.   

Let's hope I am wrong but let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.  Or if we make another trade with the Rays, let's make sure we ask for Caminero back as a throw-in.   Heck, we'll even give them Myers back!

Thoughts on a snowy Monday in the Land

NON-BASEBALL

Cleveland State-Dennis Gates-Mizzou saga

All the props to Dennis Gates for landing the Mizzou basketball coaching job.  I think, though, he will be over his head in this one.   I thought this when he got the job (Horizon League to SEC doesn't translate).  Now I read that Tre Gomillon and D'Moi Hodge have transferred to Mizzou.  Again, while I commend these young men for parlaying their relationship with Gates into a basketball scholarship at an SEC school and I loved watching them both play at my alma mater, CSU, Gomillon's game will not translate to a conference like the SEC.  Now Hodge is interesting as he may actually 'go off' with better competition.   Certainly, it will likely help and not hurt his draft stock.  But looking at it from the other side, how in the world does Gates think he will help himself improve from a 12-21 record (5-13 in the SEC) by adding a couple of mid-major players who did not dominate their comference?  I just don't see it and I think if Gates is trying the same thing he tried at CSU, team first, school is important, everything else wll follow those two, he will likely do worse, on average, than the team last year.

Not faulting Gates for reaching for the brass ring, just questioning if he is really a one size fits all coach.  While that works in the Horizon League, I doubt that the scrappy underdog playing the game the right way thing will work in the SEC.   To play there you need talent and Gomillon and Hodge just don't add that much talent to an already talent-starved team in a big boy conference.

LeBron James to Cleveland

Look, most Cavs fans would love to see LeBron play with the Cavs.   I had to laugh though when I waw a trade proposal that sent Colin Sexton, Kevin Love and the exchange of first round draft choices in 2023, 2025 and 2027 to the Lakers for LeBron and his age-38 season/expiring contract.  First, there is not currently a fit for LeBron on this team with our 3 seven footers.  LeBron averaged 37 minutes a game this season.  Kevin Love averaged 22.5 minutes.   Even if we do that substitution, which you would likely have to do, it's going to cost someone some playing time in the front court.   Love fits in well with our 3 big men.   James is going to dominate but may spread the court enough to help.  Though, in my heart and somewhat in my head, knowing how good LeBron makes the guys around him, I could see this working, I like it the way it is now.   So, if pressed, I would trade Love, Sexton and Windler for one year of LeBron and the Lakers' first round pick in 2023.  I still don't think that is the best thing for this team's development but would be willing to make this deal to see if this gets us over the hump and can pass along his playoff experience to this team.

Baker Mayfield

The guy really needs to get over himself.   He was terrible last year.  Forget the injury he was terrible.  Lots of times I saw him not even look to an open receiver while trying to thread the needle through 2-3 defenders.  Never did I see him last year make something out of nothing and many times I saw him make nothing out of something.   Then he has to run his mouth with each time he opens it making it harder for him to get what he wants...out of Cleveland.   Hey Baker, we all want that for you, believe me.  But shut the F___ up.  At this point, if I am the Browns, I keep him, put him on the scout team and put him in a situation where he has to accept a veteran minimum to play on a team in the 23/24 season.   He deserves it...really.

BASEBALL

The way the Indians played over the weekend you could see they are not ready to play with the big boys.   I mean, the Giants had a leadoff hitter hitting .170 and their all-star shortstop cam in hitting under .200 and Buster Posey's replacement was hitting 9th.  Yet we still couldn't even win a game.  I am hoping for 3 more days of snow with the storm following us to NY for the three days after that.

Then we trade for Bryan Reynolds and a reliever using some, but not all, of our prospect captial.

This week asked more questions than it answered:

Is Owen Miller really that bad at second base?

Is Steven Kwan ever going to get another hit?

Will we be able to have an over .500 record against ANY team  that has an over .500 record?

And, of course, when are we going to get Bryan Reynolds or Juan Soto and when are we going to get a veteran reliever or two?

A look at our outfielders, curent and future

 OK, time for a frank chat.  Our outfield situation is still a mess.  

Myles Straw - He is who he is: a great defensive outfielder and a scrapper at the plate.   He is an old-time, throwback player and, if he avoids injuries, can be a solid career centerfielder for the Indians.  He is locked in centerfield.

Josh Naylor - The best thing I can say about Naylor as an outfielder is that he is better in the outfield than Amed Rosario.   But Naylor is not even an average major league outfielder.   And its not like he is a great hitter.  Now, if you want to throw Franmil Reyes circa 2021 out there you live with his defensive limitations because he is an elite power hitter.   I mean, think Harmon Killebrew.  But Naylor?  He is a utility/platoon guy on a good team and is certanly not an outfielder.

Steven Kwan - He is coming back to earth...fast and hard.  On a good team he is a 4th outfielder who can play center field with enough defense and passable punch-and-judy offense to give Straw a day off.  But, at this point in his career, he is not a starting outfielder.   Still, on a team with Straw, he could be a passable starting outfielder IF the Indians have a pwer-hitting outfielder at the other corner.

Oscar Mercado - Again, a guy who is what he is.   Mercado, in my opinion, is a AAAA outfielder.  He will hang around the majors because he feasts off of bad major league pitching.  But when he faces a good pitching staff, like the Giants, he is basically a non-factor.  Even before the Giants series this was evident, dating all the way back to 2020.  The only reason he is still on this roster is because he is right-handed.  We need to get him out of Cleveland, although, right now, he is our second best defensve outfielder.

Amed Rosario - The experiment was a good one but Rosario is not an outfielder.   He is righthanded, which we need in the outfield but Rosario is a shortstop and, in fact, may only be a really good offensve player when hitting second in the order in front of Ramirez and Reyes.  I think we will find, and its likely part of the reason the Mets were willing to part ways with Rosario, that he has a very limited window of productivity.  And that productivity is at shortstop and hitting second. He is not an outfielder.

Richie Palacios - I like Palacios.  But it is either him or Kwan on this team. I don't really think either is a right-fielder.   Palacios can play some second base and I guess his bat could force itself to the majors in place of Mercado.  But Palacios is a left-handed hitter and is more like Kwan and, therefore, is not really a replacement for what we get from Mercado.

Oscar Gonzalez - Gonzalez is bad defensively with a strong but inaccurate arm.   He takes very few walks and those numbers will likely become totally non-existent aganst major league pitching.   He has two calling cards: he hits for power and hits righthanded.  However, last year is splits were slightly better agains righthanded pitching and even in 2019 when he hit .333 against lefties, it came with no homeruns.   Putting him on the roster and then sending him to the minors if he doesn't pan out would be fine if we didn't have such a roster crunch.   I fear, wthout more seasoning, he will simply be Mercado but without the defense.

Nolan Jones - He is hurt, he was not that productive when he wasn't hurt, he is just learning the outfield, he hasn't played at all this year and he hits left-handed.   There is no plus right now for Jones.  Maybe in the future but not right now.  He is not the answer and might not be for a year or two which will be problematic as he could be out of options by then

So we are back to where we were: We have to trade for an outfielder and obviously the choices would be Bryan Reynolds or Juan Soto (only because his team does not have the players to put around him in the near future to be competitive.   I know the Pirates are in the cat-bird seat but evey day he is with the team he is costing them money and is doing nothing to move them into being a competitive team.  As far as Soto, in our nation's capitol it would be almost impossible to trade the face of the franchise but we know in Cleveland that this is not impossible.  So maybe it can happen.  However, with Hedges at catcher we cannot afford more holes in the lineup.  We have to replace one of those holes (Mercado) with a trade and who better to trade for than guys who will be among our top hitters and not just Harold Ramirez part deux.

Saturday morning post

 What's right?

The Guardians are hitting the ball.  I make this prediction before tonight's game.   I think they bounce back and score a bunch of runs tonight.  I believe in this lineup.   Is it the best?  Absolutely not.   Put Juan Soto or Bryan Reynolds in this outfield and it would be a GREAT offense.  I just believe in it right now.  

The Guardians are pitching the ball well.  Yes, every pitcher on the roster has been successful.  No big flameouts.   Could they be better?  Sure.  The starters could go deeper and allow fewer runs.  Clase could be sharper.  The defense could help out the pitching staff by giving up less runs.

But I like the Indians so far.  Now, if there is a tougher part of their schedule I would like someone to show it to me so there is an outside chance that by next week at this time we could be looking at being 4-11.  Still, I like this team.

As far as the minor leagues, you gotta love the high K numbers our starting pitchers are getting.  It is too hard to gauge at this point how these gaudy stats will translate long-term as a number of these guys, like Espino, Logan T. Allen and Gavin Williams, among others, are giving up more hits and runs than I would like to see.   Time will tell.

Our minor league hitters are a mixed bag at this point.  Some of the high level prospects who struggled early this season are starting to trend up.  Guys repeating levels appear to be dominant, as expected.   And Arias and Noel look really solid to me, probably the most solid of the guys I have seen.

I love the signing of Ramirez. Exactly the right number of years to get to the right age.   Look at Pujols contract with the Angels.  Probably 3-4 years too long.   Ramirez, through his age 36 season, is about right.  Doesn't mean we won't sign him at the end of it, just means that we won't likely have to have him at age 37 what he was worth at age 29.  I love the signing of Straw.  As the weakest hitting player on the field (outside of the catcher) you can take what Straw gives you.   The signing of Clase is the most dicy but it isn't for a lot of money so it is the right length and the right dollars to hedge against him flaming out, no pun intended.

What needs fixing?

Well, besides trading for Soto or Reynolds, I would say that we have a number of guys like Chang, Bradley and Mercado who simply are not playing like quality major leaguers.  Why do I include Mercado?  Hey, he has run into some balls to get some extra base hits but, aside from those outliers he looks lke the same guy who has frustrated us (and I am sure, the Guardians) over the past two years.   The problem is the book isn't closed on any of these guys and they are all out of options.   So, give them away for nothing or let them rot on the bench?  Those are our only two options at this point if we don't throw them into a trade for Reynolds or Soto.

We have a number of guys on the DL in the minors with Freeman and Jones standing out.  I really want to get those guys playing as it will increase their trade value.  I don't honestly see either of them helping us this year due to their late start but they might surprise me...if they can just get on and stay on the field.

I would love to see more of our high end pitching prospects be successful.  Nikhazy has me scared with his struggles and early exit today.  I would love to see all of our 2021 college pitcher draftees be at least at Lake County with Williams, at least, be at Akron.   Having college pitchers pitching at Lynchburg does absolutely nothing as far as I can tell, to help evaluate them as true prospects.  Not like all 20 draft picks will end up being real prospects

After the first few days of the season

 Guardians: Didn't improve the offense.  Still not scoring runs.  Maybe we can make a trade for Reynolds but... Still, the pitchng looks pretty good.  Kwan is looking great and it makes you wonder why Zimmer, Mercado, Bradley, Miller, Chang and others can't do the same thing.  I just don't get why our hitters won't just take what the defense gives them like Kwan does.  This just looks like bad coaching to me.   Look, I ahve been a youth coach for more than 30 years and I know that even national level prospects take to training.   Very few of them are stubborn enough or are untrainable enough to limit their progression.   It is normally just bad coaching.   Not throwing anyone under the bus here but these guys should be better...they should be more like Kwan.  

Early in the season Valera, Rocchio and Tena don't look that good.   Tena, especially, looks overmatched at AA.   I don't see their trade value being high enough right now.  Also, they all appear to have significant, loopy uppercuts in their swings that I don't remember seeing last year.  I thought our hitting coaches in the minors were doing better.  Now I am wondering if they are actually hurting these guys.

Espino looked amazing today but he still gave up two HRs and a hard double.  He threw a curveball today that Rodriguez could not handle because it was still breaking so sharply when it got to him.  At this point he has great value but that the uber-value I would like to see if we are going to make a trade.  You put him in the majors with Hedges who can frame and call a good game and Espino has all the tools he needs to pitch in the majors right now.   It would be rough given his penchant of giving up hard contact but he looked good today.  Ditto for Logan T. Allen yesterday.

Williams and Nikhazy look OK, although Williams fastball looks really straight to me.  THe rest of our 2021 draft class is going to take a little while to sort out but no one else looks outstanding in the early going.

I am still wondering what is up with Gabriel Rodriguez and Aaron Braccho.   They didn't start the first game and Martinez did, but hit 9th.   At least they were all at Lake County.  

Of all of our hitting prospects Arias and Noel look the most like I thought they would coming out of the gate.  

Remember, as crowded as our 40-man roster is with prospects, we need most or all of them to excel so they become good trade bait.   Right now, although it is early, I don't see that at all except for a couple of those guys.