Bo Naylor or no Bo Naylor?

 No Bo Naylor this season unless...

1. One of our catchers suffers a serious injury that could land them on the 60 day DL (definitely would happen in this case)

2. One of our other players is placed on the 60-day DL (might happen in this case)

Look, any Guardians' fan who follows the majors is intrigued with a guy likme Naylor.  A 20 HR, 20 SB guy who is a catcher is unique.   The issue, when you look at it, is that he doesn't really add that much offensively to our major league team right now.  Defensively, the famil

iarity that Hedges and Maile have with this staff is priceless and more valuable to this team than any hypothetical offensive jolt Naylor could bring this post-season.

Yes it would be great for Bo Naylor to get his feet wet in the majors in this last series.  However, our 40-man roster crunch, our great (knock on wood) health at this moment and MLB's 28-man roster limit for September all lobby against this being a possibility. 

The questions that I think we should be asking are: 

• Wlll Bryan Shaw make the roster for the first post-season series?
• Will Eli Morgan make ANY post-season roster this year
• Will Zach Plesac pitch for Cleveland again this year?

I think those answers should be no, no and yes, but it depends on Tito and the front office and who they think will help them the most in the post-season.  

If you have been reading this blog you know that I don't think there is a necessity for Shaw or Morgan but the reality is whether the FO thinks Plesac can help this team out of the bullpen for the first two series. 

I personally think a tandem start of Morris (3 innings) and Plesac (5-6 innings) would be dynamite. But that is just my opinion.  

What do the next 9 games mean?

 So we have clinched early.  The waters (White Sox and Twins) parted as we marched to the division championship and they marched towards maximizing their draft position for next year.

So we are left in an unusual position: 9 games with apparently nothing real to play for.  I guess we still have a statistical chance of overtaking the Yankees but that is all but impossible as the Yankees would likely have to lose out and we would have to win out (their magic number is 2 to capture the second best record in the league over either Cleveland or Toronto). 

So, what do we play for?  What are our goals in this last stretch?  Well, first, we have a great manager who knows his team, knows the playoffs and knows what his team needs to do to get ready for the postseason.  So anything I say is probably not real relevant but welcome the the world of blogging!  So, let's go:

1. We need to get the rotation and bullpen set.  Right now this comes down to see whether Plesac will be part of the first series or not, keeping guys healthy and seeing if Shaw or Morgan will be part of the first series.   

2. We need to verify that Will Benson will not be part of the post-season roster and that Will Brennan will be.  It would also help if we could get George Valera or Brayan Rocchio a few ABs in these last 9 games.  Yes, they likely won't see the roster in the post-season but if the need arrives, they should at least have accomplished the "firsts" all rookies have to go through. 

This, and not losing the momentum of our current stretch WHILE getting guys rest seem to be the biggest other challenges Francona has.

Win or lost in each of the next 9 games and win or lose in the playoffs, I think our manager will give the team the best chance for post-season success.

Roster moves going forward: how do we set up the post=season roster

 OK, semi-legal disclaimers: This post is my opinion and is subject to change based on events that may happen between now and the post-season AND which team is our first round matchup.

So, with that out of the way, here goes:.  Hide the young ones, this could be painful

Catchers (2) - Hedges and Maile - NOTE: Barring an injury which could allow us to bring up Naylor, this is it for the post-season, no matter how long it goes. I see the two of these guys being used EXACTLY as they were during the regular season.  That is, the duties being split between them.)

Infielders (7): Ramrez, Rosario, Gimenez and Naylor as the starters.  Freeman, Arias and Miller as the reserves. (NOTE: I would rather not see Miller but aside from Arias showing us in the last 9 games that he can play 1B, I don't know what else to do.).

Outfielders (5): Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez as the starters.  Brennan and Palacios as the reserves. (NOTE: I think Palacios benefits here by being an extra bat which is needed more than an extra bullpen arm in a short (3 game) series)

Starters (4): Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrill and Civale (NOTE: In a best of 3 or best of 5 you don't really need 5 starters.)

Bullpen (8): Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, Hentges, De Los Santos, Plesac, Sandlin, Morris, (NOTE: In a 3 game series I think you can use a short bullpen.  You will likely need, at most, one long man and I think I put Plesac on the roster in that role and leave off Morgan and McCarty.  In a longer series I think you go with 13 pitchers and only 13 positions players.so we can add McCarty back in.  I think Morgan is the odd man out either in a short or long series. Note that both of these scenarios leave out Shaw.  If you REALLY want Shaw you have to leave off Sandlin and Sandlin has been more effective.  This is the most painful call for the Guardians but gives them the best chance of winning, in my opinion.)

So there you have it.  Shaw and Morgan get left off and we go with 12 pitchers in the 3 game series and then debate whether we go with 12 or 13 pitchers if we make it to a 5 game series.  If we add a 13th pitcher it is McCarty with Palacios getting left off.

Again, just my thoughts which are deopendent on factors (health, opponent) that are not clear yet.  I wish we had a secret weapon to put on the roster in that last roster spot (Jones, Valera, Naylor, Rocchio) but I just don't see that happening for a variety of reasons, the biggest of which is that these guys either aren't on the 40-man right now or aren't performing well enough at AAA to justify being brought up.

AL Central Champions - The things (including the dumb ones) I have said in the last year post.

 First, let's take a moment to take this all in.  The 2022 Cleveland Guardians are the AL Central Champions.  Youngest team in baseball.  Great to watch.  Way to represent Cleveland, guys, and congratulations on a great accomplishment.  

Reading the AJ Pierzynski comment about the White Sox winning the division by 20 games, let's look back at some of the things (including the dumb things) I said about this team in the past year.

Nov. 4, 2021 - about rostering Kwan - "But, still, unless something drastically changes about his game, and the only thing that could really improve to move that needle is his power, the guy is just and under-sized tweener who doesn't project to be any better than a good 4th outfielder on a good team if he reaches his ceiling.   Could he be more?  Absolutely if something drastically changes.   But, from my experience that is not likely to happen."

Yeah, that puts me right up there with AJ, I think.  But there is more.

March 28 - "Looking at Kansas City's roster, we're screwed"

March 30 - "6. In all the years I have followed the Indians this is clearly the most difficult team to predict I have ever seen.  Will the starters remain healthy and will the lineup hit?  And, if both those things happen, will the bullpen keep from blowing games before they get to Clase?   I am not going to make a guess at their final record but my hope is that the Guardians get back on the right side of .500 by the end of May and never look back."

March 30 - 2. I look at Steven Kwan and how he takes what the defense gives him and then I look at Bradley, Mercado and Zimmer and I just say to myself "Why?"   Bradley and Zimmer should be doing whatever they can to get hits and that includes slapping the ball the other way to get hits when they are shifted against.  Starting Kwan in the outfield with Rosario and Straw is almost made mandatory by how bad this offense is.   

3. This is a huge year for Gimenez and the Indians.   His hitting philosophy should be more like Kwan than Lindor.

4. I know people will think I am crazy but two of the most important players on this team, in terms of making this lineup productive, will be Yu Change and Owen Miller.  Chang is penciled in at second base and Miller will play first when Bradley sits.   If Bradley remains a pathetic hitter, Miller will get more chances at first base.

5. The key for this team is the bullpen.   It is beyond me how they could let every good reliever be signed and even let the questionable relief veterans go to other teams as minor league free agents.  I mean even Blake Parker just signed with the Cardinals on a minor league deal a few days ago.  I know we have roster problems but we need more bullpen arms."

March 13 " Here are the expendable guys I see:

Logan Allen (the elder)
Owen Miller

Oscar Mercado

Bradley Zimmer

Ernie Clement

Yu Chang"

There are lots more comments, many of them stupid, that I made during the last year about the Guardians but I will say this.   They had a plan.  They stuck to the plan.   They (especially Francona) made the plan work.  No one gave them a chance because, frankly, this (having this young of a team and this young of a roster and sticking with it all year) had even been done, let alone ever worked.  

People are excited about the rest of the season and the playoffs, and rightly so.  But I am also excited about the 3-5 years after that.  If this year's draft doesn't totally tank, that number will be closer to 5 than to 3.  For a guy who was, is and will be, all about the prospects, this is truly baseball Nirvana. 

Enjoy it brother Cleveland fans.  Enjoy the heck out of it!

And then the waters parted!

 Sorry for the biblical reference.  I am not trying to be irreverent, but this is what it seems like.  

I can see the casting now.  Francona with a long white flowing beard portraying Moses.  Antonetti portraying Aaron, Chernoff....you get the idea.

The light speed that led the Guardians to go from a magic number of 13 after Sunday's loss to a magic number of 3 after Friday's win is just amazing. 

As are the total collapses by the Twins and White Sox, with the Twins apparently stopping any attempt to win games after Monday and the White Sox after Tuesday.

A race, in reverse, for a better draft choice by these two teams?   Who knows.  

But, whatever the reason, we'll take it.

The storybook season continues and maybe adding Brennan will be the extra spark we need to provide some consistency to this offense.

With Clement gone and, likely, Miller and Shaw gone after this season, the plan is in place for next year.  

All that is left is to play out this magical ride and take it where it wants us to go!

Finding Randy Arozarena

 A couple of years in what appeared to be an odd but minor trade, the St. Louis Cardinals, usually very astute in their dealings, traded Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena and a future supplemental first round pick to Tampa Bay, a generally even more astute trader, for Matthew Liberatore, Edgardor Rodriguez and a suplemental second round draft pick.  Now I lived in St. Louis for most of my adult life and have become a fan of that team.  At the time I thought it was an odd trade but Martinez was more of a DH and I got that and Liberatore was a prized pitching prospect.  Basically Tampa was being Tampa, going to garage sales and finding treasures in someone else's excess.  The Cardinals were being the Cardinals, being proacdtive about their roster.  It seemed like an odd trade and, in fact, as a transplanted Cardinals fan I have to say I didn't like it much.  Still Liberatore was a top prospect and we all know how I like trading major league role players for top prospects.

Interestingly, I never considered Arozarena in the assets of this trade.  Maybe that is why Tampa is Tampa.  Jose Martinez hardly played in the majors again.  Rodriguez never got out of rookie ball and Liberatore is a top 100 prospect in baseball who is still scuffling to become a regular starting pitcher in the majors.

Which brings us to Arozarena.  Do you think either St. Louis or Tampa expected this?   Arozarena was signed as an udrafted free agent after his senior year in college.  Basically, that meant that he played every year as near or above age for the minor leagues he played in.  Very good stats but we know how stats in the minors for older prospects can be deceiving.   For the Cardinals to get rid of him as what appeared to be a throw-in.   Well, no one expected much.   At least I didn't.

And he didn't play much in 2020, splitting time betwen the Rays and their taxi squad team.  He did show power, hitting 7 HRs in 64 ABs

Then came the 3030 post-season.  Setting records for hittin.

The point of this post is tShat as I look around the league at the teams heading for the playoffs I see inklings of these teams looking for the next Arozarena: a guy who provides impact who the league doesn't have a book on yet.  Sort of the reverse of Juan Soto who people expect to make an impact simply because he is a star player.  A guy whose $17 mllion salary says he HAS to succeed, right?

So, yesterday, in steps Will Brennan.  He replaces Richie Palacios on the active roster.   Palacios has a role in major league baseball but, at least this year, he just looks like an extra player.   If you can replace him with a guy who is playing well, then, well, you could have a useful weapon in the playoffs.  Maybe a difference maker.  

There may never be another Randy Arozarena.  But maybe Will Brennan can make a difference is a meaningful way in the spirit of how the 2022 Cleveland Guardians play baseball.  I think that is the hope with the Guardians. Bum-of-the-month philosophy?  I don't think so, in this case.   I just see Brennan as a guy who, like Arozarena, but in a different way, can become a solid major league starter, starting right now, and make an impact on an offense that needs more juice going into the playoffs.

 

Arizona Fall League Roster

 I saw the Guardians preliminary assignments to the Arizona Fall League. 

Angel Martinez

Mason Hickman

Cade Smith

Lenny Torres

David Fry

Connor Kokx

Of these guys the biggest issue I have is putting Angel Martinez on display for all MLB scouts.  

Normally guys are put on AFL rosters for 3 reasons

(1) They have lost repetitions due to injury (Torres fits in this category)

(2) They are there for need, especially catchers (Fry fits here)

(3) They need experience against stronger competition to accelerate their development (Kokx, Hickman and Smith fit here)

(4) They need more reps at a new position (actually Nolan Jones at 1B would fit here but Martinez does not)

What you do not want to do is to put guys on display in the AFL who are Rule 5 eligible and are not locks to be added to your 40 man. This is why adding Martinez to the AFL roster is problematic.  I think he is a lock to make the 40 man roster this winter but I don't know if the Guardians think the same way.  If they are not planning on rostering him this winter then putting him on display in the AFL only enhances the chances he will be drafted and lost in the Rule 5.  He isn't changing positions, he had plenty of ABs this year and experience at different positions so why put him in the AFL.

It makes no sense and is a big red flag to me.  We'll see what ends up happening but all these guys except Martinez make sense (although Torres IS rule-5 eligible this winter but has pitched so little I doubt if he gets drafted if left off the roster (as he should be, based on his lack of performance and injury history so far).

We'll see but this is a very concerning development to me.