Would you make this trade?

 OK, so I thought it would be fun to propose some trades and get people thinking about whether they would make these trades.  Before we get into proposed trades the Guardians would be involved in, let's look back on a couple of prospect-for-major leaguer trades from a couple of years ago:

Nolen Arenado and $51 million goes to the Cardinals for Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey and Jake Sommers.

Although this seems like a terrible trade for the Rockies, consider that Arenado could have opted out of his contract after the 2021 season AND, if he did, the Rockies would have only had to pay $16 million of that $51 million.  He could have also opted out after 2022, with the Rockies being on the hook for $5.57 million for that 2022 season.   So, there was risk for the Cardinals, in a worst case scenario.  The key here is that the Rockies got a return back AS IF Arenado was likely to turn down the remaining $200 million of his contract to go back to free agency after 2021.   

Clearly the Rockies could have done better if they had just gotten Gomber, Montero and a high level prospect, even if that prospect was a tools-limited guy like Dylan Carlson (very little power), who was rated 10th in the Cardinals system at the time.  Instead, the Rockies took the salary dump option, one that would not likely impact the trajectory of their rebuild.

Mike Clevinger and Greg Allen for Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor and Paul Quantrill

In all fairness to the Padres, this trade could not have worked out worse.  Still, at the time, the headliner was Arias.  Cantillo was a teens-level prospect (still is), Hedges was excess catching and expensive and an offensive black hole (still is), Mller was a mid-teens prospect (and has played like one), Quantrill was a reliever and Naylor was an overweight outfielder, sub-power first baseman.   As funny as it seems, the headliner for the Guardians, Arias, has been the one prospect from this trade who has underwhelmed, if you want to call a top 10 prospect in your system underwhelming!!!

Plus, Clevinger got hurt and then hurt again and then pitched only OK when he did get back to the mound.  He had ace-in-waiting stuff and intelligence but, unfortunately, injuries have slowed his development. 

So the Guardians made out like bandits there because (a) the Padres overpaid thinking Clevinger was going to be who Musgroves tjurned out to be and the Guardians got surprising performances out of almost every player they received in the trade.

So, two teams trading prospects for veterans.  Both were quality veterans with one team (the Padres) overpaying and one team (Rockies) gambling Arenado would opt out and so they were trading a year of him for a handful of magic beans...which sounds a lot better than what they got for 7 years of Arenado.  

With the above in mind and some of the scary (Christian Walker, Anthony Rizzo) acquisitions I have heard of, here are 3 trades I would like to propose to you where we don't get back just .220 hitting, 3-true outcome guys in return and we enhance, to varying degrees, our chances of getting to and winning the World Series.

Would you make these trades?

1. Sean Murphy (C) and J. J. Puk (LHRP) for Gabriel Arias, Logan Allen, Owen Miller, Richie Palacios and Jhonkensy Noel.

My take: You could substitute any pitching prospect we have for Logan Allen except Gavin Williams, Bibee or Espino.  I would also be willing to substitute Bo Naylor for Noel if I got a low A or rookie ball minor leaguer of note back. PROVISO: I would only want to give up this much if I already had Jose Abreu signed.   Adding Murphy and Puk would only help this team incrementally and the extreme price is not worth that incremental improvement which likely, in and of itself, would not allow us to catch the Yankees or Astros in talent or even stay ahead of the White Sox and Twins if either or both of those two teams put together a stellar season in 2023.

2. Bryan Reynolds for Oscar Gonzalez and Jake Fox

My take: Any Cleveland fan, after Gonzalez's 2022, would probably spit on this deal but remember that it is somewhat possible that Gonzalez, based on his track record, is just a one-year wonder.   Reynolds is far from being a be-all-end-all guy but he is more likely to give you production next year than Gonzalez and some, me included, might contend we would be selling high on Gonzalez with the Pirates counting on Reynolds not increasing his value during the season to make a deadline deal more lucrative.  For me, I would not do this deal but it does give you more veteran presence than Gonzalez brings.  Note that if we would do this deal it would not be tied to any other deal.  It is a simple future-for-present value deal.

3. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for Gavin Williams, Oscar Gonzalez, Daniel Espino, Gabriel Arias, Johnkensy Noel, Milan Tolentino and Bo Naylor

My take: Weird you say?   The Guardians would never take on this kind of salary you say?  The Angels will never go into a rebuild of the type that this trade would signify you say?  All hese are valid points but looking at their roster and looking at the rosters of Houston and Seattle I don't see the Angels being able to outlast these other two teams to rise to to the top.  The Guardians would be giving up much of their future for two guys who might have reached their top value (Ohtani) or are on a downward arc (Trout).  Not only would we be spending a HUGE amount of prospect capital, but we would also be doubling our payroll!  Oh, and we would only be guaranteed having Ohtani for the 2023 season.

2023 - The over/under

 So let's do an overview of what we can expect from our roster in 2023.  That is will they do better (OVER), the same (SAME) or worse (UNDER) next year compared to their performance this year.   Now this analysis is done without considering unexpected injuries or trades that might open up or close up playing opportunities for the current roster.  So, let's go:

Jose Ramirez - OVER -Assuming his thumb surgery and rehabilitation goes well and he doesn't have any other injuries that linger, he should clearly surpass his numbers this year.  I am thinking similar numbers of doubles and triples as this year but 6-10 more HRs and about 15 points higher in BA.  

Andres Gimenez - UNDER - If he can give us .260 with 15 HRs, 20 SBs, a few more walks and a few less Ks than this year I'll take it.

Amed Rosario - SAME - Very pedestration year this year.  No reason to believe he won't repeat it next year.  I don't see a lot of room for improvement but his current numbers, with additional RBIs is we strengthen the bottom of our order,  would be great.

Josh Naylor - OVER - Hey, I didn't think he would have the year he had this year after his surgery.  Imagine 2023 when he is another year removed from his injury/surgery.  I'd like to see 30 HRs from him but I will settle for 25, with all his other numbers remaining the same or improving just a tad.

Catcher - OVER - Instead of a player this is a position.  I think we trade for Sean Murphy whic upgrades both the offense and defense on this team a lot. This position will get better next year, one way or another.

Kwan - SAME - Look, this is generous.  At some point the league can figure out how to keep Kwan from getting singles.  He doesn't have the power to make them pay for mistakes so Kwan will scratch and clawe for every advantage he can gain and will, in the end, be better at some things and worse at others with a net change of close to zero compared to 2022.

Straw - OVER - This is an easy one.  Once the season ended I expected Straw to come out...with a report that he played hurt all year, likely the result of some tumble he took in the OF.  But it was Ramirez and Gimenez that came clean.  Still, even if it was just the red-shirt sophomore slump, I expect him to get better offensively and stay the same or get better on defense

Gonzalez - SAME - I would love to say OVER here but I just don't buy it yet.  He would have to go 35 doubles and 25 HRs for a full season and I think we are likely to see .265, 20 HR and thirty doubles as he works through the painful sophomore year that sinkts other 2nd year players.  I also think he could have a crash and burn second season and go the way of Bobby Bradley.  It's too early to tell but his dramatic, sustained rise this year compared to 2021 says he still have improvement in the tank that he can reach for.

Beiber - SAME

McKenzie - SAME

Quantrill- SAME

Plesac - OVER - I may be the only Guardian's fan who thinks this but Plesac SHOULD get another chance.  I mean, he should be pretty much an underpaid 5th starter even on a good team.

Civale - OVER - I think he has a healthy year and does well as our 4th starter.

Clase - UNDER - How can he get better or even stay the same?  He was unbelieveably automatic this year and his playoff usage could impact his performance and/or health next year.  

Hentges - SAME

Stephan - SAME

Karinchak - SAME

Morgan - SAME

Morris - OVER

Gaddis - OVER - I think he makes an impact next year.  I really do.

Curry - OVER- I think his impact is in the pen and it is not felt until the second half of the year but it is still more than this year.

If we make the trades I want:

Abreu, Murphy and Puk - OVER - If we trade for/sign these guys and they avoid injuries I think they all have significant bumps over their performance year.

Others - OVER - I see 2023 like a mini-2022.  Mini because we won't have as many rookies.  However, the ones that we have will mostly do well for a net improvement over our bench from last year.  

As far as the overall team record, I am not ready, with the change to the schedule format next year, to make that prediction.  However, given what I understand, I think if we repeat our record from 2022, this will be an INCREDIBLE net improvement.  More on that later

Updated Guardians' Top 50 Prospects

 OK, now that we are entering the off-season here is my latest list of top prospects for the Guardians.  I am not including Palacious, Pilkington or McCarty here but I am including Arias, Benson and Freeman.

1. Gavin Williams 

2. George Valera

3. Bo Naylor

4. Tyler Freeman

5. Daniel Espino

6. Tanner Bibee

7. Brayan Rocchio

8. Gabriel Arias

9. Cody Morris

10. Nolan Jones

Comments: This goes against the grain a little bit but I don't know how I can have a guy who was injured for the entire season, Espino, as my #1.  We have heard it was his knee, there are rumors it was his shoulder AND his knee.  Most of the time we have heard radio silence.  Given all that we have heard, and haven't, #5 is pretty generous at this point.   I like Cody Morris more than most and I think Freeman has a good future, maybe just not with Cleveland.  Who can tell?  Nolan Jones is a big question mark for me.  I would have played him and not Arias at 1B down the stretch at Columbus and if I knew I wasn't going to do that, I would have assigned him to the AFL because, frankly, on this team, with his both type, he NEEDS to learn to play 1B.  A left-handed hitting, tall, athletic guy with power who can play first, third and RF has value as a utility guy on a ML team, especially if he is cheap (and homegrown).  I don't understand why they don't see that, especially with SpongeBob claiming RF and Brennan behind him now.  The only thing lobbying against Jones is his age, I guess, making him less precocious and more on a normal trajectory which, when you have so many precocious prospects, may give the misimpression that Jones is lacking.  I may be rating Rocchio too low and Valera too high.  They are cut from the same mold: guys who were not uber-successful in their first taste at AAA.  Both ooze potential and, in Rocchio's case, defensive polish, but both have to come out smokng with the bats next year.  If the Guardians really think that they will then you don't trade them as what is on paper for both of them would make their trade value much lower than their projected value.

11. Chase DeLauter

12. Jose Tena

13. Angel Martinez

14. Jhonkensy Noel

15. Carlos Vargas

16. Xzavion Curry

17. Logan T. Allen

18. Joey Cantillo

19. Jake Fox

20. Justin Campbell

Comments: I put a lot of weight on velocity for pitchers.  I saw Logan Allen's velocity become pedestrian after a few starts at AAA and he started getting hit around.  I see that as a red flag for him. Ditto for Justin Campbell, who I see as another low velocity guy.   At the same time Vargas' velocity bumps him up the rankings for me.  He seems poised to pitch out of the bullpen in the future and I see him having that role in Cleveland, assuming he stays healthy and continues to progress rapidly, sometime next May or June.  Joey Cantillo would be higher on my list but he was hurt the last part of this season I have questions about his return for the beginning of next season.  If he isn't ready for spring training I see him dropping even more on this list.  I am not sold on DeLauter and I would have gone with Susac, especially if we will lose Bo Naylor this winter as I suspect we will.  

21. Will Brennan

22. Hunter Gaddis

23. Peyton Battenfield

24. Jaison Chourio

25. Petey Halpin

26. Parket Messick

27. Will Benson

28. Bryan Lavastida

29. Doug Nikhazy

30. Milan Tolentino

Comments:  I am all about performance and Brennan performed although, with Kwan in LF, I can envision Brennan as more of a 4th outfielder. type.  The Guardians apparently like what they have seen from Benson in CF although he didn't hit at all during his time in Cleveland. I think both Gaddis and Lavastida may be under-valued at this point based on their 2022 numbers (Gaddis' based on his poor performance in the majors as an underprepared pitcher) and I look for both to have dominant seasons at Columbus next year.  It is way too soon to give up on them.  I am including Battenfield this high NOT on the basis of his performance as a starter but, rather, on his potential to be a reliever.  His conversion to starter really was solidified this year but, concurrently, his velocity was down and, like Logan Allen, got hit around.  On the other hand, I see him as a solid setup man where his velocity would likely tick up to where he is more effective, similar to what we have seen multiple times in the past, most recently Zach Plesac at the end of the year when he ended up pitching out of the bullpen after returning from teh DL. Messick is only up this high because he is left-handed.  He is another classic low velocity guy who could get chewed up at higher levels as he faces a higher percentage of patient, professional hitters.  

31. Angel Genao

32. Tanner Burns

33.  Alexfri Planez

34. Isaiah Greene

35. Jacob Zibin

36. Ethan Hankins

37. Joe Lampe

38. Mason Hickman

39. Ryan Webb

40. Gabriel Rodriguez

Comments: Burns' velocity was down.  I watched him pitch a number of times and, without enough velocity, I don't see him competing at the big-league level.  I am not sold on Lampe at all and think his lack of power and left-handed hitting in this system may doom him, if he can even hit for average, get on base and show some speed.  I am willing to gamble on Hickman's conversion to late inning reliever (something I have been asking for since I saw his sub-average velocity over the past couple of seasons) is going to make him take off as a prospect. Hankins and Webb are injured guys who I think could have breakout seasons next year.  For Zibin I want to see the drive to succeed.  I hope it's there but it is still up in the air for me as to whether it is and whether his really excessive bonus was worth the investment.  Rodriguez may be the most likely guy we could lose in the ML Rule 5.

41. Tommy Mace

42. Jack Leftwich

43. Gabriel Rodriguez

44. Jonathon Rodriguez

45. Lenny Torres Jr.

46. Cade Smith

47. Micah Pries

48. Luis Durango Jr.

49. Carson Tucker

50. (tied). Hunter Stanley

50. (tied) Will Dion

Comments: In these 11 we have lots of question marks.  Will guys' tools play at the next highest level?  Will they find the missing piece that makes the rest of their tools play up?  Will they undergo a position switch that will allow them to excel (e.g., could someone who can hit be converted to catcher like Lavastida was).?  This is where a blogger really starts to reach to see if he can come up with a gem who breaks out next year.  

There are probably more Dominican prospects that I have not considered and maybe even other injured players that I have undervalued due to them not being around this year but, there it is, my current Guardians' top 50 prospects.  If I have missed anyone obvious please let me know.

Random thoughts for a Friday

2-21-2022 EDITED TO INCLUDE BOB COSTAS COMMENTS 

1. Congrats to Beiber, Straw, Ramirez, Gimenez, Kwan and the Guardians for being nominated for Gold Glove awards.  Never really understood those awards as I think some of the choices are comical (didn't a first baseman win it a number of years ago when he was overwhelmingly used as the DH?).  But, be that as it may, it is good to know that what we see every day is recognized around the league.

2. Age brings perspective and you learn to not sweat the little things.  Still, there are things that rankle me.  Here's on that I saw on the Guardians Prospective Twitter site recently.  There was a picture of 10th round draft pick this year, Jacob Zibin.:

 The caption to the post that appears to be from Jacob Zibin was "Off season". 

It's hard to put into words what offends me about this. Just an 18 year old kid showing off a prize catch from a fishing trip, right? 

I admit to being nitpicky on this but we just paid this kid the largest bonus ($1.2 million) ever given to ANY player drafted in the 10th round of the draft.  This also cost us a penalty amount as we exceeded our bonus pool and what we get from him is that he's enjoying his off-season.   

The post wasn't the issue for me, it was the impression it could leave.  If he had just said:

"Enjoying a little R&R after instructs.  Now back to work!  Go #Guardians"

Jacob, I suggest you post some videos of you working out and do it soon.  It will go a long way to give the impression that you are taking this professional baseball thing seriously.

Kind of reminds me of Myles Straw last winter trying to monetize his name on some fansite.   Just didn't sit right with me.

Again, just me.  But impressions become a person's reality real fast.

3. Talking AFL, this is one of the most intriguing seasons for Guardians' prospects I have seen.  Questions that come out of this include: 

a) Why is Angel Martinez there?  Auditioning him as trade bait?

b) Will they really make an effort to turn Mason Hickman into a full-time reliever?

c) What is the future for David Fry in this organization?  Is it at all possible they will roster him this winter?

d) Have the Guardians moved Cade Smith up on their minor league reliever depth chart?

e) What is the future for Lenny Torres>

f) Do the Guardians think they may have a Kwan-clone in Koxx?

4. Thinking about who the sleepers will be entering next year's minor league season.  If they survive the Rule 5 the guys who come to mind for me are Gabriel Rodriguez and Alexfri Planez.  More on that later when I recap the minor league seasons. 

5. About Bob Costas - Look, this guy is an icon in sports broadcasting...especially in his own mind.  Networks still think that he is viable as an announcer as they keep hiring him.   Can't argue with that.  What I have witnessed in the past two weeks, though, is not excusable. Media (at least one guy) in New York ripped him for his constant harping on the Yankees and Yankees history during the ALDS.  I have to admit I turned down the sound of the broadcast and listened to Hammy, et al.  However, the bits that I did pick up from Costas and crew from replays and listening to small bits of his broadcast convinced me that have favored the Yankees in almost everything he said, including when he would say needless negative things about Cleveland and its players (e.g., Zach Plesac comments in the 9th inning of a game where he was just in to mop up in a loss).  

The best way to describe what I heard from him in these broadcasts was, if I didn't know better, I would have thought I was listening to Yankees broadcasters.   

Then he has the balls to go on Cleveland sports talk radio to try to justify what he did.  And he proceeded to just dig himself a bigger hole and climb into it and lay down and start to pull the dirt in around him.  Some of his comments about Hammy were, in my view, condescending and attempted to put himself on a higher pedestal than Hammy.  Yeah, Bob, we don't expect you to be a Cleveland homer.  Why, there is no money in that.  What we do expect is for you to be neutral and supportive of all teams you broadcast about.   When the media in NY essentially says you were acting like a Yankees homer and the fans and media in Cleveland know you were acting that way, there is not much left to say.

You see, Bob, I have heard a professional announcer or two in my lifetime.  Jack Buck comes to mind.  You would never see him do such a homer job.  It just wasn't in him when he was broadcasting on national TV.  He was, like you, a professional.  The difference is that he did it without ego and without an eye on his next paycheck.

You weren't asked to do the play-by-play of the LCS broadcasts.  To me, that says everything.   Enjoy your retirement.  It will be well-deserved and I hope that it starts immediately. 

Off-season wish list summary

 So, our wish list is Jose Abreu, Sean Murphy and a quality lefty power reliever.   You could wish on a star for more but the players who played this year and even our current minor leaguers who are close to the majors have shown that, say, bringing in a veteran power-hitting outfielder would be redundant and waste resources (unneeded extra salary, prospects, or both)

Hey, could Oscar Gonzalez fall on his face next year?  Yes, of course.  Could Steven Kwan regress.  Absolutely.  The issue is that we gambled this year on the quality of minor leaguers and with the quality still in the high minors and the success this year of using internal prospect options, I see no reason to change except with the 3 guys/positions above.

Anything else I think we would address at the trading deadline.

So, front office.  Your job is simple 

(1) Get us Abreu, Murphy and a power lefty to complement Hentges

(2) Don't gut the farm system unnecessarily doing it. 

Just a couple of tweaks to a 92-70 team that I think will energize the players and, hopefully, the ticket-buying fan base and not break the bank like certain moves would likely do.

On to the offseason - Part #5 - Need #3

Before talking about this need, which is pitching-based, let's look at our pitching on my proposed 40 man roster

Starting Pitching

First string: Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Plesac

Backups: Curry, Gaddis, McCarty, Battenfield, Cody Morris, Pilkington

A little further down: Logan T. Allen, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino Joey Cantillo, Tanner Burns

Comments: You can never have enough pitching.  However, in terms of redundancy, of acceptable starting pitching and even guys who might not be ready on opening day but could impact the rotation in a very positive way later in the season, I think we are in pretty good shape. I don't, however, think we can trade Plesac, however, as I think any internal option would be a downgrade at this point and why would you trade Plesac ang get another starter in a trade (losing prospects) or through free agency (bad investment compared to what you would pay Plesac).

Right Handed Relievers:

First string: Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, Sandlin,De Los Santos, Morgan, Morris, 

Backups: Curry, Gaddis, Battenfield, Carlos Vargas

A little further down the line: Espino, Mason Hickman, Mikolajchak, Enright, Cade Smith

Left Handed Relievers:

First string: Hentges

Backups: McCarty

A little further down the line: Tim Herrin

Comments: I think from the right-side we are in roughly the same place as we are with the starting pitching, we have a lot of options, more than I think most teams have especially if we use Gaddis, Curry, Batenfield and Vargas.

However, it is in left-handed relieving that we are not deep.  So, that becomes Need #3

LEFT HANDED POWER RELIEVER

I have already mentioned that we might fill this position with a guy like AJ Puk, combining him in the trade to get Sean Murphy.  Other contenders have done this, both in the off-season and at the deadline so I think it can work.  You just have to add another prospect or two.  

Still, I am willing to leave this to the Guardians' FO.  They have the analytics to, hopefully, allow us to pick exactly the type of lefty reliever we need and even sign a couple of 6-year free agents to minor league deals or a solid major league lefty reliever and a couple of 6-year guys for backup.  It would have been nice just to continue to groom Anthony Gose but he will miss next season so we have to look elsewhere.

On to the offseason: Part 4 - Need #2 (and maybe #3, at the same time)

 Catching, oh, catching.  

I am such a fan of Austin Hedges.  This guy should never have played more than one year in the majors the way he hits.  But his overall value to the team?  It was there both on the field and in the locker room.

However, if we have a place where we can improve the offense without losing defense than it is at catcher.

So, my second addition to this club in the off-season is

Sean Murphy

Hey, when I look at his stats I am truly worried that this season could be a career year for him offensively.  And he only hit .250 with an OPS of .759.  He could end up being a lifetime .220/.310/.410 hitter.  Wilson Contreras would be a MUCH better offense catcher.  But Contreras is a free agent and will be highly sought after.  We ain't getting him if we wanted to and, looking at his defense, I don't want Contreras.  

The Guardians wanted Murphy at the deadline and didn't get him.  I think they get him now if the A's are not total a-holes like the Pirates were last year about Bryan Reynolds (how did that work out, Buccos?).

OK, so that improves our offense significantly and may, in fact, actually improve our defense.  But at what cost?

Some may say we should just go with Bo Naylor.  This would make it a family affair and, frankly, how many 20 HR, 20 SB catchers are there?  The issue with Bo Naylor is that he might not be able to be an effective offensive weapon at the beginning of 2023.  His history tells us that and portends, even when he does settle in at a level, that he isn't necessarily going to be a .300 hitter, maybe settling in more to the .260/.340/.380 range.  In other words, he may be, by mid-season, what Sean Murphy was this year.

So, my friends, it all comes down to this: Do we make do until Bo Naylor is ready to really help this team (middle of 2023 or beginning of 2024) or do we pull the trigger on a deal now?

The answer lies, as it did in July, is what would be the cost IN ADDITION to Bo Naylor.  Because, if e make a trade for Sean Murphy, Bo Naylor IS going the other way.

So let's hypothesize on what we would have to add:

1 middle infield prospect ready for the majors

1 starting pitcher, ready for the majors

1 outfielder ready for the majors

1 throw-in guy

So, in summary, the trade could look something like: Naylor, Freeman, Palacios, Battenfield and Owen Miller for Murphy.

Is that too much.? Maybe.  I don't know if I would pay it.  Maybe I would ask for a second player and maybe substitute a higher ranked prospect.  All the players we are giving up are redundant to what we have and, except for Freeman and Naylor, don't project to be any more than solid major leaguers.  Still, I might ask for Sam Moll as we have a need for another lefty reliever.  I would really like AJ Puk but we are likely to have to sweeten the pot significantly (Logan Allen instead of Battenfield and/or Brennan instead of Palacios) to get that done.

Like I said, I am pretty sure Sean Murphy is coming and Bo Naylor is going.  I would like to limit the damage in addition to Naylor and Freeman (or Arias) and if we can fill our third need, a second lefty reliever, so we could be done trading, that would be great, too.